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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4263; (P) 1.4303; (R1) 1.4350; More...

Intraday bias USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 1.4260 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267) will indicate that larger scale correction is underway. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 61.8% retracement at 1.3942. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will revive near term bullishness. Break of 1.4378 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6240; (P) 0.6275; (R1) 0.6315; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral. With 0.6329 resistance intact, outlook will stay bearish. On the downside, break of 0.6239 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6087 low. However, firm break of 0.6329 will bring stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413, even just as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6516) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.92; (P) 153.86; (R1) 155.35; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Corrective pull back from 158.86 should have completed at 150.92 after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49. Further rise should be seen to retest 158.86 first. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 150.92 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9107; (P) 0.9132; (R1) 0.9160; More…

USD/CHF is still extending the consolidation from 0.9200 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bullish with 0.8956/64 support zone intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.9200/9223 will resume the whole rally from 0.8374 and carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained break of 0.8964 will be a sign of reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0309; (P) 1.0345; (R1) 1.0398; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook as consolidations from 1.0176 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2387; (P) 1.2435; (R1) 1.2493; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Corrective rebound from 1.2099 could still extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. On the downside, below 1.2331 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2248 support. Firm break there will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, decisive break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

The forex markets was subdued in Asian session today. Dollar strength faded quickly after initial boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data. While the greenback retains most of its gains against Yen, it has started to weaken against other major currencies. The reluctance of Dollar to sustain its rally—despite reduced odds of a Fed rate cut in the first half of 2025 and ongoing tariff threats—suggests that another down leg may be on the horizon.

With US inflation data out of the way, market focus now shifts to the UK, where Q4 GDP figures are set for release. The economy is expected to have contracted -0.1% qoq, with a modest 0.1% mom expansion in December. Think tank NIESR remains cautiously optimistic, predicting subdued growth in the first half of the year before an acceleration in the second half. It expects GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, supported by higher government spending and business investment.

For the week so far, Euro leads as the top-performing currency, followed by Sterling and Aussie. Meanwhile, Yen remains the weakest, followed by Swiss franc and Kiwi. Dollar and Loonie positioned in the middle.

Technically, Gold's strong rebound ahead of 2852.31 support suggests that traders are not giving up on 3000 psychological level yet. Decisive break of 3000 and 61.8% projection of 1810.26 to 2789.92 from 2584.24 at 3189.66 before topping. Nevertheless, firm break of 2852.31 will bring deeper pullback to 2789.92 resistance turned support and possibly below to consolidate recent gains.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.46%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.52%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.12%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.05%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0034 at 1.350. Overnight, DOW fell -0.50%. S&P 500 fell -0.27%. NASDAQ rose 0.03%. 10-year yield rose 0.100 to 4.637.

Looking ahead, UK GDP is the main focus in European session. Germany CPI final, Swiss CPI and Eurozone industrial production will be released too. Later in the day, US PPI and jobless claims will be be featured.

Fed's Powell: New CPI data confirms “not there” yet on inflation

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the latest inflation data released yesterday confirms the US is making progress but is still “not there on inflation.”

Following January’s stronger-than-expected CPI report, Powell said in the Congressional testimony that Fed will "keep policy restrictive for now" to bring price pressures down.

Powell also underlined that the "economy is strong, the labor market is solid" allowing the Fed to keep a tight policy stance and wait for inflation to ease further.

He also emphasized that one month of higher readings should not be interpreted as a complete reversal of the disinflation trend, especially given that Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, typically runs below CPI.

Bostic: Fed needs more clarity before cutting rates

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signaled uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts, citing ongoing concerns about inflation and policy shifts under the Trump administration. Speaking at an event overnight, Bostic emphasized the need for "more clarity" before making any definitive moves on monetary policy.

He acknowledged the difficulty in assessing the current economic conditions, stating, “My view is until we have more clarity, it’s going to be impossible to make a judgment about where our policy should go and how fast and at what pace, and so we’re just going to have to get more information before we’re going to be able to move.”

He also provided his estimate for the neutral rate, which he sees in a range of 3%-3.5%. Currently, Fed's target range stands significantly higher at 4.25%-4.5%. Bostic's initial projection was to see rates move about halfway to neutral by year-end. but the timeline remains highly contingent on economic developments and inflation trends.

Nagel advocates gradual rate cuts as ECB nears neutral

German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel emphasized emphasized that ECB should avoid being on "autopilot" when determining the timing of interest rate cuts.

Speaking at the London School of Economics, he stressed that as ECB approaches the neutral rate, a "gradual approach" becomes more appropriate. Given the current uncertainty, he argued, "there is no reason to act hastily."

Nagel remains confident that inflation will return to 2% target by mid-year, saying, "We are not at our target, but I’m really very convinced that we will come to our target by the midst of this year." He also dismissed concerns of an inflation undershoot.

Bundesbank staff estimates place the neutral interest rate within a range of 1.8% to 2.5%, slightly below ECB’s current deposit rate of 2.75%.

However, Nagel warned against relying too heavily on neutral rate estimates, calling it “risky” to base monetary policy decisions on uncertain theoretical benchmarks. Instead, he emphasized that the ECB relies on a variety of financial, real-economic, and other indicators to guide its policy stance.

RBNZ survey shows rate cut expectations firm up

The latest RBNZ Survey of Expectations showed a mixed shift in inflation forecasts, with short-term price pressures edging higher but long-term expectations trending lower. The survey, nonetheless, reinforces anticipation of further rate cuts.

One-year-ahead inflation expectation rose from 2.05% to 2.15%, marking a slight uptick. However, two-year-ahead inflation expectations dipped from 2.12% to 2.06%, while five-year and ten-year expectations both declined by 11-12 basis points to 2.13% and 2.07%, respectively.

RBNZ's Official Cash Rate currently stands at 4.25% following 50bps reduction in last November. Survey respondents broadly expect another 50-bps cut to 3.75% by the end of Q1. The one-year-ahead OCR expectation also moved lower, falling 10bps to 3.23%, reinforcing the view that RBNZ will continue easing policy at a measured pace.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2387; (P) 1.2435; (R1) 1.2493; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Corrective rebound from 1.2099 could still extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. On the downside, below 1.2331 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2248 support. Firm break there will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, decisive break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a recovery wave from the $70.80 support.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $72.20 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold prices started a downside correction from the record high of $2,942.
• EUR/USD is attempting to start a fresh increase above the 1.0380 resistance level.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price started a major decline below $75.00. The price declined below the $73.00 and $72.00 levels before the bulls appeared.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A low was formed at $70.87 and the price is now correcting some losses.

There was a move above the $71.50 and $72.00 levels. The price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $72.20 on the same chart. It even spiked above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $80.76 swing high to the $70.87 low.

On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $73.50 level. The main hurdle is now near the $74.00 zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher.

In the stated case, it could even visit the $75.80 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $78.00 resistance zone in the near term.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $72.20 zone. A daily close below $72.20 could open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is $70.80. Any more losses might send oil prices toward $68.00 in the coming days.

Looking at Gold, there was a strong increase above the $2,900 level and the price is now correcting some gains.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• UK GDP for Q4 2024 (Preliminary) (QoQ) - Forecast -0.1%, versus 0% previous.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 215K, versus 219K previous.

The latest RBNZ Survey of Expectations showed a mixed shift in inflation forecasts, with short-term price pressures edging higher but long-term expectations trending lower. The survey, nonetheless, reinforces anticipation of further rate cuts.

One-year-ahead inflation expectation rose from 2.05% to 2.15%, marking a slight uptick. However, two-year-ahead inflation expectations dipped from 2.12% to 2.06%, while five-year and ten-year expectations both declined by 11-12 basis points to 2.13% and 2.07%, respectively.

RBNZ's Official Cash Rate currently stands at 4.25% following 50bps reduction in last November. Survey respondents broadly expect another 50-bps cut to 3.75% by the end of Q1. The one-year-ahead OCR expectation also moved lower, falling 10bps to 3.23%, reinforcing the view that RBNZ will continue easing policy at a measured pace.

Full RBNZ Survey of Expectations here.

German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel emphasized emphasized that ECB should avoid being on "autopilot" when determining the timing of interest rate cuts.

Speaking at the London School of Economics, he stressed that as ECB approaches the neutral rate, a "gradual approach" becomes more appropriate. Given the current uncertainty, he argued, "there is no reason to act hastily."

Nagel remains confident that inflation will return to 2% target by mid-year, saying, "We are not at our target, but I’m really very convinced that we will come to our target by the midst of this year." He also dismissed concerns of an inflation undershoot.

Bundesbank staff estimates place the neutral interest rate within a range of 1.8% to 2.5%, slightly below ECB’s current deposit rate of 2.75%.

However, Nagel warned against relying too heavily on neutral rate estimates, calling it “risky” to base monetary policy decisions on uncertain theoretical benchmarks. Instead, he emphasized that the ECB relies on a variety of financial, real-economic, and other indicators to guide its policy stance.