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Market Picture

The cryptocurrency market has not been embarrassed by the lacklustre performance of US equities, gaining 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.56 trillion. This is the high of the current week but below the market’s centre of gravity during the consolidation period from 17 to 26 January. The market is still hesitant to storm to all-time highs, facing increased activity from those looking to lock in profits from last year’s crypto rally.

The crypto market sentiment index has been in confident greed territory throughout the week without much change. This is unlike previous periods of euphoria, where FOMO momentum lifted the index into the 90 area vs the current 70.

Bitcoin rose to 105,000, entering the area of sustained highs in December and January. Earlier in the week, bulls protected BTC from consolidating under the 50-day moving average, forcing the latest dynamic to be seen as a consolidation rather than a break of an upward trend.

Ethereum also successfully fought off the bears, defending against a dip under 3000. This is not the first time this has happened since the second half of November. The major altcoin has emerged from the ranks of market drivers but is clearly in no hurry to be a bargaining chip.

News Background

In December 2024, the monetary aggregate M2 in the US rose to $21.5 trillion, approaching an all-time high, CoinDesk notes, noting the strong positive correlation of money supply with risk appetite.

The head of the Czech National Bank suggested diversifying the state reserve by placing up to 5% of its €140bn of assets in Bitcoin. At the same time, he did not rule out that investments in cryptocurrency could be bad. The Bank’s board of directors will consider the initiative.

Trump’s media company, Trump Media, announced the launch of its financial arm, Truth.Fi, and the allocation of up to $250 million to invest in traditional and digital assets, including Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and related securities.

Since 1 November, the number of active Ethereum addresses has increased 37% to 575,000. The catalyst was institutional investors’ renewed interest in DeFi.

Kazakhstan President Tokayev recommended changing the approach to the circulation of cryptocurrencies and urgently creating infrastructure for their wider legal circulation. According to him, 95% of Kazakhstani crypto investors operate in the ‘grey’ zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.61; (P) 193.19; (R1) 193.89; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is back on the downside with breach of 192.05 minor support. Deeper fall would be seen to 189.31 support. Firm break there will suggest that corrective pattern from 180.00 has completed. But before that, the pattern could still extend. Break of 194.73 will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.23; (P) 161.86; (R1) 162.41; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the downside with break of 160.94 minor support. Deeper decline would be seen to 159.74 support and below. But overall, price actions from 154.40 are seen as a corrective pattern, which might still extend further.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8355; (P) 0.8378; (R1) 0.8393; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8355) will argue that whole rebound from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8472 as a corrective move. Nevertheless, strong bounce from the 55 D EMA, followed by break of 0.8397 minor resistance, will argue that the pull back has completed and bring retest of 0.8472.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.8442) will pave the way to 0.8624 cluster zone (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621), even just as a correction to the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But still, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8621/4 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6679; (P) 1.6715; (R1) 1.6756; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD below 1.6800 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another dip, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 1.6800 will resume the rally from 1.5963. However, sustained break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283 instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support (2024 low) despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9428; (P) 0.9444; (R1) 0.9466; More....

EUR/CHF is still bounded in range of 0.9424/9516 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 0.9424 support will indicate rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Deeper fall would then be seen back to channel support (now at 0.9377). However, strong rebound from current level will keep the choppy rally from 0.9204 intact.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9928 should have completed at 0.9204 with the current strong rebound, after failing to sustain below 0.9252 (2023 low). It's still early to confirm long term bullish reversal. But even as a corrective move, current rebound could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9651. On the downside, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9390) will maintain medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9204 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0387; (P) 1.0415; (R1) 1.0449; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.0371 support will indicate rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 and retain near term bearishness. Retest of 1.0176 low should be seen next. On the upside, though, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of bullish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed as fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) could either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. Strong support from 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will favor the former case, and sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0722) will argue that the third leg might have started. However, sustained trading below 1.0199 will favor the latter case and bring retest of 0.9534 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.86; (P) 155.33; (R1) 155.71; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 156.74 resistance will indicate that fall from 158.86 has completed as a correction. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 158.86 and above to resume the whole rally from 138.57. On the downside, below 153.70 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2409; (P) 1.2436; (R1) 1.2480; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Rebound from 1.2099 is seen as a corrective move. While another rise cannot be ruled out, strong resistance could be seen 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.2292 minor support will bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, sustained trading above 1.2609 will raise the chance of reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9036; (P) 0.9065; (R1) 0.9099; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 0.9374 stays intact with strong support seen from near term rising channel. On the upside, break of 0.9107 will target 0.9200 and 0.9223 key resistance. On the downside, however, break of 0.8964 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9223 resistance holds, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern. That is, long term down trend is in favor to resume through 0.8332 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.9223 will be an important sign of bullish trend reversal.