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Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a consolidation phase below the 1.0350 resistance.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.0315 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is consolidation losses below the 1.0320 resistance.
• Crude oil prices rallies toward $80.00 before it corrected some gains.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained in a bearish zone below 1.0350 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD even extended losses and traded below the 1.0220 support.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded as low as 1.0176 and is currently consolidating losses. There was a close below the 1.0350 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

It seems to be facing resistance near the 1.0300 and 1.0315 levels. The next major resistance is near the 1.0350 level. A close above the 1.0350 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.0420 resistance. The main hurdle could be 1.0450.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.0265 level. The next key support sits near the 1.0245 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.0200 level.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair started a short-term recovery wave, but the bears are active near the 1.2280 resistance zone.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• Euro Zone Construction Output for Nov 2024 (YoY) – Forecast +1.1%, versus +1.0% previous.

In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Dollar Index (DXY) published in members area of the website. As our members are aware, the DXY is currently showing impulsive bullish sequences in the cycle from the September low. As a result, we are leaning towards the long side at this stage.

Recently, the Dollar Index has completed a 3-wave pullback, with buyers stepping in precisely at the equal legs zone. In this article, we will dive deeper into the Elliott Wave forecast and explain the reasoning behind our outlook.

DXY H1 London Update 01.15.2025

The current view suggests that the Dollar is forming a ((iv)) black pullback as Elliott Wave Zig-Zag Pattern. The structure of the correction remains incomplete, indicating more short-term weakness. We expect to see another leg down towards the equal legs zone between 108.900 and 108.373 (the potential buyers’ zone).

Once the extreme zone is reached, we anticipate that potential buyers will step in, which could lead to a further rally towards new highs, or at least a three-wave bounce.

DXY H1 London Update 01.17.2025

The US Dollar extended lower towards the buying area as expected. Price reached the extreme zone at 108.900 – 108.373. DXY found buyers and rallied from the Equal Legs zone, completing the pullback at 108.62.

The 108.62 low is key for the view. While above this level, we expect further strength towards new highs. A break below it would prolong the correction.

• Nasdaq-100 broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to resistance level 21850.00

Nasdaq-100 index rising inside the intermediate impulse wave (5), which started earlier from the support zone located between the key support level 20820.00 (former low of wave A from December) and the support trendline of the daily down channel from December (which encloses earlier ABC wave (4)).

The index just broke the aforementioned down channel which should accelerate the active impulse wave (5).

Given the strong daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 21850.00, top of the previous B-wave.

• AUDCAD reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000

AUDCAD currency pair continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 1, which started earlier from the support zone located between the key support level 0.8860 (former multi month low from April) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The active impulse wave 1 belongs to the higher order impulse waves (1) and 1, which started from the same support area.

AUDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.9000, former strong support from December coinciding with the daily down channel from September.

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0176 last week but recovered after breaching 1.0199 fibonacci level briefly. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and more consolidations could be seen. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0439 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083. However, firm break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, down trend from 1.6039 remains in force with EUR/USD staying well inside falling channel, and upside of rebound capped by 55 M EMA (now at 1.0973). Consolidation from 0.9534 could extend further and another rising leg might be seem. But as long as 1.1274 resistance holds, eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

USD/JPY's extended fall last week confirmed short term topping at 158.86. But as a temporary low was formed at 154.97, initial bias is neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 158.86 resistance holds, in case of stronger recovery. Below 154.97 will target 55 D EMA (now at 154.53). Sustained break there will target 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.02).

GBP/USD dipped to 1.2099 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2486 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.2099 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 100% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2486 from 1.2810 at 1.1863.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433, and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move.

In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9200 last week but lost momentum ahead of 0.9223 key resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. As long as 0.9007 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9223 will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 0.9007 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8937).

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9223 resistance holds, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern. That is, long term down trend is in favor to resume through 0.8332 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.9223 will be an important sign of bullish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 55 M EMA (now at 0.9131) will indicate that the third leg has already started. However, rejection by 55 M EMA again, followed by break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317, will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD recovered after edging lower to 0.6130 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6301 resistance holds. Break of 0.6130 will resume the fall from 0.6941 and target 61.8% projection of 0.6687 to 0.6198 from 0.6301 at 0.5999. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6310 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is resuming with break of 0.6169 (2022 low). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806, In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6545) holds.

In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6846) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper fall, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. However, this view is subject to adjustment if current decline accelerates further.