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UK’s ILO Unemployment Rate Increased For The First Time In Nearly 2 Years In The Final Three Months Of...
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.55% against the USD and closed at 1.3914, after UK's ILO unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the three months to December 2017.
Britain's ILO unemployment rate registered an unexpected rise to 4.4% in the October-December period, rising for the first time in nearly 2 years. Markets had anticipated the ILO unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%.
On the other hand, the nation's average earnings including bonus climbed 2.5% on an annual basis in the three months to December 2017, in line with market expectations. The average earnings including bonus had registered a similar rise in the September-November period.
In other economic news, UK's public sector net borrowing posted a more-than-anticipated surplus of £11.6 billion in January, compared to a revised deficit of £0.3 billion in the previous month. Markets were anticipating public sector net borrowing to report a surplus of £11.4 billion.
Separately, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, stated that interest rates may have to rise faster than initially expected in order to keep inflation in check, as domestic inflationary pressures are beginning to firm. However, Carney stopped short of offering any clarity on the timing of the next rate hike.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3911, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3870, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3828. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3981, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4050.
Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of UK's flash 4Q GDP numbers, due to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Extends Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 107.73.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 107.33, with the USD trading 0.37% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 107.02, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.71. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.77, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.21.
Moving ahead, market participants would closely monitor Japan’s inflation figures for January, scheduled to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Swiss Franc Trading Slightly Higher, Ahead Of Swiss Industrial Output Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.22% against the CHF and closed at 0.9391.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9389, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9355, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9322. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9410, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9432.
Going ahead, Switzerland’s 4Q industrial production data, set to release in a few hours, will be on investors’ radar.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Trading A Tad Higher, Ahead Of Canada’s Retail Sales Figures
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.37% against the CAD and closed at 1.2698.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2694, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2645, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2595. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2725, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2755.
This afternoon will bring a crucial Canadian economic release, namely the retail sales data for December.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.28; (P) 150.10; (R1) 150.79; More...
GBP/JPY's consolidation from 147.95 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook remains bearish with 151.19 resistance intact and deeper fall is still expected. Break of 147.95 will extend the fall from 156.69 and target 146.96 support next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 151.19 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.
In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.07; (P) 132.56; (R1) 132.86; More....
With 133.38 resistance intact, near term outlook in EUR/JPY remains bearish. Sustained trading below 132.04 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 114.84 to 137.49 at 132.14) will indicate larger trend reversal on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper decline would be seen for 38.2% retracement at 128.38 first. However, rebound from 132.04 will retain near term bullishness. Break of 133.38 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.49 again.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD indicates loss of medium term upside momentum. Sustained break of 132.04 will be the early sign of long term reversal and should bring deeper fall back to retest 124.08 key support level. Meanwhile, break of 137.49 will resume the up trend from 109.03 to 141.04/149.76 resistance zone.


EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8801; (P) 0.8829; (R1) 0.8853; More...
EUR/GBP's sideway trading continues inside 0.8686/8928. Intraday bias remains neutral and deeper fall is mildly in favor with 0.8928 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.8686 will resume whole decline from 0.9305. As 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 should then be taken out too, deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.8303/8312 support zone. Nonetheless, on the upside, break of 0.8928 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.9304 resistance.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.


EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5648; (P) 1.5697; (R1) 1.5788; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral. Also, with 1.5606 intact, near term outlook remains bullish. Break of 1.5816 should now confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.5606 will argue that a short term top is formed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5494)
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1523; (P) 1.1541; (R1) 1.1551; More...
No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as consolidation from 1.1445 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.1639 resistance intact. Break of 1.1445 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.


USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2650; (P) 1.2676; (R1) 1.2728; More....
USD/CAD's break of 1.2687 suggests resumption of rebound from 1.2246. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.2687 from 1.2450 at 1.2891, which is close to 1.2919 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.2450 will target 1.2246 first. Break there will extend the fall from 1.2919 and target 1.2061 keys support level.
In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.2246 is mixing up the medium term outlook. Nonetheless, USD/CAD is staying below falling 55 week EMA (now at 1.2776), hence, the bearish case is in favor. That is, fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.2061 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. However, firm break of 1.2919 will revive the case of medium term reversal and turn outlook bullish.


