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Swiss Trade Surplus Narrowed By The Most Since 2012 In January
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.62% against the CHF and closed at 0.9364.
On the macro front, Switzerland’s trade surplus narrowed to a 6-year low level of CHF1.32 billion in January, amid exports slid and imports surged. The nation had posted a surplus of CHF3.37 billion in the prior month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9372, with the USD trading 0.09% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9325, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9278. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9397, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9422.
Amid no macroeconomic releases in the Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic news.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Canada’s Wholesale Sales Declined For First Time In Three Months In December
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.55% against the CAD and closed at 1.2649.
Macroeconomic data indicated that Canada's wholesale sales surprisingly eased 0.5% on a monthly basis in December, defying market expectations for an advance of 0.4%. Wholesale sales had registered a revised rise of 0.3% in the prior month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2659, with the USD trading 0.08% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2599, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2539. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.269, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2721.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.38; (P) 149.87; (R1) 150.69; More...
GBP/JPY's recovery from 147.95 continues today but it's staying below 151.19 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and deeper fall is still expected. Break of 147.95 will extend the fall from 156.69 and target 146.96 support next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 151.19 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.
In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.17; (P) 132.34; (R1) 132.56; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. And, outlook stays mildly bearish with 133.38 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 132.04 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 114.84 to 137.49 at 132.14) will indicate larger trend reversal on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper decline would be seen for 38.2% retracement at 128.38 first. However, rebound from 132.04 will retain near term bullishness. Break of 133.38 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.49 again.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD indicates loss of medium term upside momentum. Sustained break of 132.04 will be the early sign of long term reversal and should bring deeper fall back to retest 124.08 key support level. Meanwhile, break of 137.49 will resume the up trend from 109.03 to 141.04/149.76 resistance zone.


EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8790; (P) 0.8829; (R1) 0.8854; More...
EUR/GBP's sideway trading continues inside 0.8686/8928. Intraday bias remains neutral and deeper fall is mildly in favor with 0.8928 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.8686 will resume whole decline from 0.9305. As 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 should then be taken out too, deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.8303/8312 support zone. Nonetheless, on the upside, break of 0.8928 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.9304 resistance.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.


EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5602; (P) 1.5650; (R1) 1.5695; More....
EUR/AUD recovers after drawing support from 1.5606. Intraday bias stays neutral first. With 1.5606 intact, near term outlook remains bullish. Break of 1.5816 should now confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.5606 will argue that a short term top is formed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5484)
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1524; (P) 1.1540; (R1) 1.1565; More...
Consolidation from 1.1445 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, with 1.1639 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish. Break of 1.1445 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.


EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2300; (P) 1.2355 (R1) 1.2392; More....
EUR/USD's fall from 1.2555 is still in progress. But the pair is staying well above 1.2205 key support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.2555 will revive the bullish case of up trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075. However, break of 1.2205 will confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.


GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3942; (P) 1.3983; (R1) 1.4036; More....
GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.4144 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, pull back from 1.4345 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3764. Above 1.4144 will target 1.4345 first. Break will resume larger up trend and target long term trend line resistance (now at 1.5105). On the downside, below 1.3764 will extend the correction to 1.3651 resistance turned support instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4279) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggests that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.


USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9303; (P) 0.9336; (R1) 0.9391; More...
USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9186 is still in progress but it's staying well below 0.9469 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish for another decline. Break of 0.9186 will extend the larger down trend to 0.9115 medium term projection level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9469 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9541) and above.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is developing into a medium term down trend. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.8545. In any case, sustained trading above 55 day EMA is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.


