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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.2% against the USD and closed at 0.7914.

LME Copper prices declined 0.9% or $66.0/MT to $7093.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 3.5% or $77.0/MT to $2266.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7908, with the AUD trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February meeting showed that officials remained sanguine about Australia’s economic outlook, citing a nascent recovery in global economy. Further, the central bank reiterated a steady course for raising interest rates and stressed that in spite of the robust labour market, wage growth “was yet to pick up”. Moreover, officials expect inflation to increase gradually as the economy strengthens, while emphasising that household debt remained “elevated”.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7888, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7867. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7953.

Moving ahead, traders would await the release of Australia’s Westpac leading index for January, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.1% against the USD and closed at 1.2424.

In economic news, the Euro-zone's seasonally adjusted construction output advanced 0.1% on a monthly basis in December, compared to a revised rise of 0.2% in the previous month. On the other hand, the region's seasonally adjusted current account surplus narrowed to a six-month low of €29.9 billion in December, after recording a revised surplus of €35.0 billion in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2386, with the EUR trading 0.2% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2361, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2336. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2419, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2452.

Going ahead, investors would keep a close watch on the ZEW economic sentiment index for February, scheduled to release across the Euro-zone in a few hours. Additionally, Euro-zone's flash consumer confidence index for February, set to release later in the day, will garner a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.28% against the USD and closed at 1.4002.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3973, with the GBP trading 0.21% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3939, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3905. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4027, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4081.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.35% against the JPY and closed at 106.61.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 106.79, with the USD trading 0.17% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 106.39, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.02, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.26.

Looking forward, Japan’s flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI for February, slated to release overnight, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the CHF and closed at 0.9287.

In economic news, Switzerland’s total sight deposits rose to a level of CHF575.1 billion in the week ended 16 February, compared to a level of CHF574.7 billion reported in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9307, with the USD trading 0.22% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9274, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9241. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.933, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9353.

Ahead in the day, market participants would eye Switzerland’s trade balance data for January.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.19% against the CAD and closed at 1.2559.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2580, with the USD trading 0.17% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2545, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2509. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2604, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2627.

Moving ahead, investors would eye Canada’s wholesale trade sales data for December, due to release later today.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

The US dollar continued its modest rebound on Monday with China and North America on holiday. The Australian dollar was the top performer early in the week while the yen unwound some of last week's strength. CFTC positioning showed an ill-timed shift towards the dollar. A new Premium trade in a major index has been issued earlier, highlighting 5 technical factors, in addition to Thursday's index trade. The RBA minutes are due next, followed by the ZEW survey on Tuesday morning. The UK jobs report is on Wednesday and not Tuesday as reported earlier.

The US dollar found some life on Friday and that continued Monday but we will have to wait until the day ahead to see if it was anything more than flows and position squaring ahead of a long weekend in yet-another dead cat bounce.

USD/JPY clawed its way up to 106.70 after falling to 105.50 at the lows on Friday. The bounce so far is well-within the standard range. One level to watch is the Sept 2017 low of 107.29 as that former support level will now act as resistance.

In economic news, the Eurogroup nominated Spanish economic minister De Guindos for the ECB vice presidency in a move that was generally expected. Spain was due for an executive position and there were few candidates to choose from so they were forced to take a politician at a time when central bankers are increasingly politicized. His motives are sure to be questioned during his 8-year term but for now he's saying all the right things.

Looking ahead, the RBA meeting minutes are due at 0030 GMT. Details about recent forecasts will be welcome as Lowe shifts to a more-upbeat outlook on growth but maintains the expectations for low inflation.

A bigger market mover will come at 100 GMT when the German ZEW sentiment survey is due. The consensus on the current situation is a dip to 94.0 from 95.2 last month. A strong reading could put the euro back on a path to a cycle high.

CFTC Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR +128K vs +141K prior GBP +15K vs +28K prior JPY -115K vs -113K prior CAD +33K vs +40K prior CHF -20K vs -20K prior AUD +9K vs +14K prior NZD +2K vs +3K prior

The theme was US dollar buying in the latest changes but that turned out to be the wrong move as the dollar sank back into the doldrums until Friday's bounce. Yen shorts continue to get beaten up, will they capitulate?

Gold Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that Intermediate wave (X) ended with the decline to 1306.96. Up from there, the yellow metal is rallying in 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at 1337, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1317.27, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1357.12, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1348.30, and Minutte wave (v) ended at 1361.72.

The 5 waves rally from 1306.96 to 1361.72 ended a higher degree Minute wave ((a)) of a zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Minute wave ((b)) is currently in progress to correct cycle from 2/8 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing. The next extreme area in 7 swing comes at 1330.07 – 1334.15 where Minute wave ((b)) can end. Afterwards, as far as pivot at 2/8 low (1306.96) stays intact, expect Gold to extend higher. We don’t like selling Gold and expect buyers to appear at 1330.07 – 1334.15 area for a 3 waves bounce at least.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2372; (P) 1.2403 (R1) 1.2439; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2555 will revive the bullish case of up trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075. However, break of 1.2205 will confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3954; (P) 1.4001; (R1) 1.4045; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.4144 temporary top. As noted before, pull back from 1.4345 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3764. Above 1.4144 will target 1.4345 first. Break will resume larger up trend and target long term trend line resistance (now at 1.5105). On the downside, below 1.3764 will extend the correction to 1.3651 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4279) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggests that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.