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General Trend:

Equities markets higher with China markets closed for holiday,US and Canada also closed for Monday session

Overall news light with, China, US and Canada closed for Mondayholiday

A$ is the outperformer rising as high as 0.7935, overall USD slightly weaker across the region

Strong yen weighing on manufacturers and exporters confidence

Japan

Nikkei 225 opened +0.8%; closed +2%

(JP) JapanJan Trade Balance: -¥943.4B v -¥1.02Te (1st deficit in 8-months);Adj Trade Balance: ¥373.3B v ¥144Be; Exports y/y: 12.2% v9.4%e, Imports y/y: 7.9% v 7.8%e; Exports to Asia +16%; China +30.8%; US +1.2%,EU+20.3%

(JP)Poll of analysts say a stronger yen may cause adelay in BOJ tapering of ultra easy policy - financial press

Korea

Kospi opened +1.3%

(KR) Bank of Korea (BoK)sells KRW410B in 6-month monetary stabilization bonds (MSB) at 1.63%

(KR) Bank of Korea(BoK) sells KRW1.0T vs. KRW1.0T indicated in 3-month monetary stabilizationbonds (MSB); Yield: 1.58% v 1.50% prior

(KR) Accumulated commission-related sales ofsome 30 cryptocurrency exchange operators in South Korea are thought to havereached KRW700B at the end of 2017 v KRW8B in 2016 - Korean press

China/HongKong

Hang Seng closed for holiday; Shanghai Composite closed for holiday

(CN) ChinaCommerce Ministry official Wang Hejun: if the final decision [about USrestrictions on steel and aluminum imports] hurts China’s interests, we willcertainly take necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights

(CN) China reiterates non-first-use on nuclearweapons

(CN) China Jan bond issuance totaled CNY2.5T(CNY2.4T through inter-bank, CNY190B through Treasury issuance) - Xinhua

Australia/NewZealand

ASX 200 opened -0.1%; closed +0.7%

(NZ) New Zealand JanPerformance of Service Index: 55.8 V 56.0 prior

Brambles(-3% ), BXB.AU Reports H1 (A$) Underlying Net 493.7M* v 295M y/y; Rev 2.75B v 2.52B y/y

(NZ) New Zealand expecting 'a lot of disruption' from Cyclone Gita

GWA Group (+12.5%), GWA.AU Reports H1 (A$) Net 27.7M v 27Me; EBIT 41.8M v 41Me; Rev 227.1M v 221Me;To divest Door & Access Systems business unit

(AU) Australia in talks about a project to counter China’s Belt and Roadprogram – AFR

LookingAhead: Tomorrow NZ PPI and RBA meeting minutes, miner BHP reports H1 results

Other Asia

Noble Group, NOBL.SG Updates on proposed financial restructuring: Entered ad hoc agreement withING for $700M facility; confident it can continue as a going concern; Guides Q4 net loss $1.93-1.73B

North America

DIS “Black Panther” top film at the box office over the weekend with $192.0Min North American sales

On Friday. US CommerceDepartment has recommended that President Donald Trump impose steep curbs onsteel and aluminum imports from China andother countries ranging from global and country-specific tariffs to broadimport quotas

NXPI Qualcomm said to be working on deal price for NXP, said to be in low$120/shr - CNBC

Europe

(UK) UKIP leader Boltonremoved by party members after less than five months in charge followingcriticism of his leadership and a scandal about racist comments made by hislover - press

(UK) Feb Rightmove House Prices m/m: 0.8% v 0.7% prior; y/y: 1.5% v 1.1% prior

(EU) IMF's Lagarde: Have no objection to plans to turn the euro zone’s bailoutfund into a European Monetary Fund – Swiss press

(UK) PM May rules out second vote on membership in EU, no going back on theJune 2016 vote - press

Levels as of01:00ET

Nikkei225 +2%, Hang Seng closed; ShanghaiComposite closed; ASX200 +0.7%, Kospi +0.6%

Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.4%; Nasdaq100 +0.4%, Dax +0.4%; FTSE100 +0.8%

EUR 1.2435-1.2399; JPY104.44-106.09; AUD 0.7935-0.7900;NZD 0.7409-0.7377

Apr Gold -0.5% at $1,350/oz; Apr Crude Oil +1.2%at $62.30/brl;Mar Copper -0.2% at $3.23/lb

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.62; (P) 149.28; (R1) 149.80; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 147.95 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 151.19 resistance to bring another fall. Below 147.95 will target 146.96 support next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 151.19 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.44; (P) 132.27; (R1) 132.73; More....

Near term outlook remains bearish with 133.38 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 132.04 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 114.84 to 137.49 at 132.14) will indicate larger trend reversal on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper decline would be seen for 38.2% retracement at 128.38 first. However, rebound from 132.04 will retain near term bullishness. Break of 133.38 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.49 again.

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD indicates loss of medium term upside momentum. Sustained break of 132.04 will be the early sign of long term reversal and should bring deeper fall back to retest 124.08 key support level. Meanwhile, break of 137.49 will resume the up trend from 109.03 to 141.04/149.76 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8823; (P) 0.8855; (R1) 0.8872; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as range trading continues. Near term outlook will remain mildly bearish as long as 0.8928 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 0.8686 will resume whole decline from 0.9305. As 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 should then be taken out too, deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.8303/8312 support zone. Nonetheless, on the upside, break of 0.8928 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.9304 resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5647; (P) 1.5710; (R1) 1.5744; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. With 1.5606 support intact, near term outlook stays bullish. Sustained trading above 1.5770 will confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. However, below 1.5606 minor support minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5463).

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1517; (R1) 1.1532; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1445. Near term outlook stays bearish with 1.1639 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 1.1445 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2349; (P) 1.2452 (R1) 1.2511; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.2555 will revive the bullish case of up trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075. However, break of 1.2205 will confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3970; (P) 1.4058; (R1) 1.4120; More.....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. As noted before, pull back from 1.4345 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3764. Above 1.4144 will target 1.4345 first. Break will resume larger up trend and target long term trend line resistance (now at 1.5105). On the downside, below 1.3764 will extend the correction to 1.3651 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4279) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggests that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9209; (P) 0.9248; (R1) 0.9309; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation above 0.9186 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.9469 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 0.9186 will target 0.9115 medium term projection level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9469 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9553) and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is developing into a medium term down trend. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.8545. In any case, sustained trading above 55 day EMA is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.76; (P) 106.07; (R1) 106.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 105.54 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 108.72 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.