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The CAC index has posted strong gains in the Thursday session. Currently, the index is at 5,241.75 up 1.47% since the close on Wednesday. On the release front, the eurozone trade surplus widened in December, climbing to EUR 23.8 billion. This beat the forecast of EUR 22.4 billion.

US markets were higher on Wednesday, and European stock markets have followed suit in Thursday trade. US investors shrugged off soft retail sales as well as higher inflation. The recent sell-off was triggered by concern that stronger inflation would lead to an acceleration in rate hikes. So far, the stronger CPI numbers out of the US have not spooked investors, but if US data continues to beat expectations, the market sell-off could resume. In Europe, strong corporate earnings reports have boosted the markets on Thursday. The bank sector is looking sharp, and CAC banking shares are higher – BNP Paribas has jumped 1.92%, and Credit Agricole is up 1.55%.

ECB President Mario Draghi said last week that he is more confident that eurozone inflation is moving closer to the ECB target of just below 2 percent, due to improving economic growth. However, Draghi listed currency market volatility as an obstacle to the inflation target, and added that the ECB would carefully monitor the euro’s exchange rates. Draghi’s concerns about the exchange rate have been underscored by last week’s stock market turbulence, which boosted the dollar and sent the euro lower by 1.6 percent. The ECB tapered its massive stimulus program from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth in January, and the markets are looking for hints as to whether the ECB will normalize policy and wind up stimulus in September.

The DAX index has posted strong gains in the Thursday session. Currently, the index is trading at 12,453.00, up 0.92% since the Wednesday close. In the eurozone, trade surplus continues to grow, climbing to EUR 23.8 billion. This beat the forecast of EUR 22.4 billion. On Friday, Germany releases the Wholesale Price Index, which is expected to rebound with a gain of 0.2%.

European stock markets are higher on Thursday, as company earnings from major European corporations have been strong. The bank sector has posted strong gains, and this is reflected in bank shares on the DAX – Commerzbank is up 2.39%, and Deutsche Bank is close behind at 2.04%. It has been a blue February for the DAX, which has slipped 5.9%, as global stock markets endured a sharp correction last week. This week has seen some improvement, and US markets were up on Wednesday, despite soft retail sales as well as higher inflation. The recent sell-off was triggered by concern that stronger inflation would lead to an acceleration in rate hikes. So far, the stronger CPI numbers out of the US have not spooked investors.

The recent stock market turbulence has triggered volatility in the currency markets, and this is causing concern at the ECB. Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi said that he is more confident that eurozone inflation is moving closer to the Bank’s target of just below 2 percent, due to improving economic growth. However, Draghi listed currency market volatility as an obstacle to the inflation target, and added that the ECB would carefully monitor the euro’s exchange rates. The ECB tapered its massive stimulus program from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth in January, and the markets are on the lookout for hints as to whether the ECB will normalize policy and wind up stimulus in September.

Spot Gold hit new nearly three-week high at $1357 on Thursday, in extension of strong rally previous day when gold price advanced over 1.5%.

Significantly weaker dollar which returned to broader downtrend after being initially boosted by upbeat US CPI data, boosted the yellow metal’s price which is now on track to fully retrace $1366/$1307 corrective phase.

Wednesday’s strong bullish acceleration brought daily techs back to full bullish setup which are expected to support price for final push towards $1366 target (25 Jan high, the highest since July 2016).

However, overbought conditions warn that bulls may lose traction ahead of $1366 target and enter consolidative phase before continuing.

Broken Fibo 61.8% barrier marks solid support at $1343, guarding 20SMA ($1336).

Res: 1357, 1362, 1366, 1375
Sup: 1349, 1343, 1336, 1333

• Encouraging Gains in US Futures;
• US Yields Continue to Rise Which Could Make Traders Cautious;
• Bitcoin Nears Important $10,000 Hurdle.

Encouraging Gains in US Futures

It would appear stock markets are starting to regain some of their composure following a couple of very volatile weeks in which US indices fell more than 10% from their record highs.

The Dow and S&P 500 both posted more than 1% gains on Wednesday and futures are seeing similar upside ahead of the open this morning. Volatility has remained quite elevated in recent sessions but we are slowly returning to more normal levels and are far from what we were experiencing last week. It would currently appear that last week’s plunge was just a sharp correction in an otherwise bullish market, although it may be too soon to say that with any real confidence.

US Yields Continue to Rise Which Could Make Traders Cautious

I imagine investors will still be somewhat cautious despite the encouraging rebound we’re seeing which will leave markets a little vulnerable to further drops. The fundamental backdrop remains strong but rising yields on the back of higher interest rate expectations does appear to be spooking investors and with the 10-year Treasury now nearing 3% for the first time in four years, any sharp rises may continue to weigh on equity markets.

We have a lot of economic data coming from the US today and while some of these are notable releases, none stand out as being as potentially market moving as the earnings number a couple of weeks ago or the inflation data yesterday. The Philly Fed and empire state manufacturing surveys stand out as notable releases, as does capacity utilization, jobless claims and industrial production but I would expect the impact of these will be minor compared to yesterday’s releases.

Bitcoin Nears Important $10,000 Hurdle

As ever, cryptocurrencies remain a hot topic and bitcoin came close to overcoming an important level earlier this morning, only to fall slightly short and pare its gains. The move above $10,000 may not make the headlines that it did back at the end of November and the reaction it sparks may not be quiet as aggressive as the first two weeks in December, but it could be very significant if it manages it.

A break back above an important psychological hurdle – a level that only a few weeks ago was regarded as an important support zone – may signal an end to the sell-off in bitcoin, among others, and begin another more promising climb higher. I would be surprised if the move higher is as aggressive as last time as there isn’t the same euphoria this time around and many speculators will have been burned on the way down, but it could be more healthy if, of course, it happens.

Alternatively, this level could mark the peak in another corrective move in bitcoin and trigger more selling, piling more pressure on the cryptocurrency space. Whether this happens or not may depend on whether we can see a period of light negative news flow, with January producing a constant stream of it which weighed heavily on cryptocurrencies.

Crude oil increases back, trading above 61. Crude oil is contained between resistance at 64.77 (11/01/2017) and support at 55.82 (07/12/2017 low). The technical structure suggests short-term upside moves.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness is very likely. For the time being, the pair lies in an upside trend since June 2017. Support lies at 42.20 (16/11/2016) while resistance is located at 77.83 (20/11/2014). Crude oil is trading largely above its 200 DMA.

Silver is picking up, showing signs of further strength, heading toward resistance at 17.07 (09/11/2018 high). Hourly support lies at 16.03 (05/12/2017 low). The technical structure suggests further short-term increase.

In the long-term, the trend remains negative/sideways. Further downside is very likely. The pair is trading below its 200 DMA. Resistance is located at 21.58 (10/07/2014 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold is recovering after its recent strong sell-off. Resistance at 1337 (12/09/2017) is broken, confirming a strong bullish bias. Further resistance at 1358 (08/09/2017) approaches. Supports given at 1306 (04/01/2018 low) and 1290 (16/10/2017) remain. The technical structure suggests further upside moves.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1'392 (17/03/2014) is required to confirm it. A major support can be found at 1'045 (05/02/2010 low).

Bitcoin is heading higher, approaching the 10000 range. Strong support and resistance stand at 5605 (13/11/2017 low) and 12130 (18/01/2018 high). The short-term technical structure suggests further upside moves.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth but also presented important downturns. There is decent likelihood that the currency could stabilize between 7'000 - 12'000 in 2018. Bitcoin is trading above its 200 DMA (6'500 range).

EUR/CHF is heading higher and closer to resistance at 1.15850 (19/10/2017 high) while strong resistance at 1.1833 (15/01/2018 high) remains. Hourly supports are given at 1.14269 (04/10/2017 low) and 1.1388 (02/10 2017 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE program is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Support can be found at 1.0234 (20/04/2015 low).

EUR/GBP is stabilizing near resistance at 0.8929 (12/01/2018 high). Hourly support remains at 0.8687 (25/01/2018). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside move.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from 2015 lows. The technical structure suggests further upside pressure. The pair is trading above its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level) while support remains at 0.8304 (05/12/2016 low).