Sample Category Title

EUR/CHF stabilizes above 1.1500 after breaking resistance at 1.1485 (17/10/2017 low). This validates a bearish reversal pattern with an upside potential at 1.1388. Hourly resistances are found at 1.15850 (19/10/2017 high) and 1.1685 (26/01/2018 high). Support targets are given at 1.14269 (04/10/2017 low) and 1.1388 (02/10 2017 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE program is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP is trading higher and approaches resistance at 0.8929 (12/01/2018 high). Hourly support is at 0.8687 (25/01/2018). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside move.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests further upside pressure. The pair is trading above the range of its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

AUD/USD bounced back at 0.7759 (09/02/2018 low), outreaching the 0.7800 range and giving signs of further hike. Hourly resistance at 0.7638 (15/12/2017 low) remains. The technical structure suggests short-term strength.

In the long-term, the trend is turning flattish and fails reaching key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 low). Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD trades below the 1.26 range. The pair seems heading further down around 1.2550. Hourly resistance lies at 1.2748 (24/11/2017 high) and support stands at 1.2480 (20/10/2017 low). The technical structure indicates that further short-term decline is expected.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading below 200 DMA.

USD/CHF trades sideways below 0.9400. The declining trend line remains intact, heading towards resistance at 0.9257 (01/02/2018 low). Hourly resistance stands at 0.9559 (24/01/2018 high) while further resistance remains at 0.9978 (08/12/2017 high).

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Support at 0.9259 (24/08/2015 low) is attainable. Key support remains at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY remains weak. Hourly support at 107.63 (08/09/2017 low) is nearing, suspecting a limited short-term upside potential so far. Hourly resistances can be found at 111.50 (18/01/2018) and 113.75 (12/12/2017 high). The technical structure suggests further short-term downside moves.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 107.32 (08/09/2017 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low).

GBP/USD is pausing between resistance at 1.4003 (23/01/2018 high) and support at 1.3742 (16/01/2018 low). The technical structure suggests further potential downside move.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is moving to 2016 highs. A long-term support given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and a strong resistance at 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high) are identified.

EUR/USD is trading sideways, heading toward resistance at 1.2356 (24/01/2018 high). Support is located at 1.2165 (17/01/2018 low). The technical structure suggests further sideways downside moves.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

WTI oil trades higher on Monday, bouncing above daily cloud which was penetrated on Friday, in extension of last week's steep fall. Oil price regained ground as global stocks showed signs of stabilizing, following last week's roller-coaster ride. Recovery was signaled by oversold daily studies after steep descend from $66.28 (02 Feb lower top) showed signs of fatigue and profit-taking boosted the price. However, growing pressure on crude price on rising US oil production which could further undermine efforts from main oil producers to tighten oil market by reducing global production, keeps the downside vulnerable. Return above ascending daily cloud which offers significant support (the cloud is spanned between $59.63 and $57.03) was so far limited by the base of thick hourly cloud and broken 55SMA ($60.82/91). Stronger bullish signal could be expected on firm break above 55SMA and $61.20 barrier (Fibo 38.2% of $66.28/$58.06 bear-leg) which would neutralize persisting bearish threats and signal stronger recovery. Conversely, failure to hold above psychological $60.00 level (also broken Fibo 61.8% of $55.81/$66.64 rally) would risk fresh weakness and renewed probes into daily cloud.

Res: 60.91, 61.20, 62.07, 62.35
Sup: 60.00, 59.51, 59.08, 58.37

Notes/Observations

Global equities find some interim support while volatility remains elevated

Inflation data key focus in week with UK CPI on Tuesday and US CPI on Wed

Asia:

Japan government said to consider promoting current BoJ Exec Dir Amamiya to the position of Deputy Gov (**Note: currently the Executive Director of the BoJ’s Monetary Affairs Dept)

On Feb 9th reports circulated that Japan govt was set to reappoint Kuroda as Gov of BOJ to a new 5-year term (as expected)

China PBoC: Skips Open Market Operation (OMO) for the 13th straight session

Europe:

ECB's Nowotny (Austria) reiterated concern about attempts by the US to politically influence the exchange rate as it was a theme addressed at Davos and to be discussed again at the upcoming G20 summit. There would be a need for the ECB to hike rates in the foreseeable future

ECB’s Visco (Italy): ECB to be patient in pursuit of its inflation target; it has been difficult to push up inflation expectations. FX volatility was a major risk to the inflation outlook

BoE Chief Economist Haldane reiterated BoE is in ‘no rush’ to raise interest rates

PM May will deliver a major speech within the next three weeks outlining the future relationship Britain wants to have with the EU

Fitch affirmed Germany sovereign rating at AAA; outlook stable

Fitch affirmed Finland sovereign rating at AA+; outlook stable

Fitch affirmed Czech Republic sovereign rating at A+; outlook positive

Canadian rating agency DBRS affirms Netherlands sovereign rating at AAA, stable trend

Americas:

White House Budget said to project return to 3% growth with low inflation and borrowing costs in 2018 with growth rising to 3.2% in 2019

OMB Head Mulvaney commented ahead of US budget release: Budget to seek $3.0T cut in deficit over 10 years. Sought $18B for 'border wall and $17B to deal with opioid epidemic.

New York Fed Nowcast: raised Q1 GDP from 3.2% to 3.3% with positive surprises from imports and exports data accounted for most of the increase.

Energy:

Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 975 v 946 w/w (+3.1%) (most rigs added in a week since Jan 2017)

Economic Data:

(DK) Denmark Jan CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9%e

(DK) Denmark Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.9%e

(SE) Sweden Jan PES Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.1% prior

(SE) Sweden Feb Housing Price Indicator: -7 v -13 prior

(CH) Swiss Jan CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e

(CH) Swiss Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.1% prior

(CN) China Jan Aggregate Financing (CNY): 3.060T v 3.150Te

(CN) China Jan New Yuan Loans (CNY): 2.900T v 2.050Te

(CN) China Jan M2 Money Supply YoY: 8.6% v 8.2%e; M1 Money Supply YoY: 15.0% v 13.5%e, M0 Money Supply YoY: -13.8% v +4.2%e

Fixed Income Issuance:

(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €6.5B vs. €6.5B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg yield: -0.401% v -0.420% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.49x v 1.41x prior

(NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B vs. NOK4.0B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.50% v 0.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 2.43x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +1.5% at 374.1, FTSE +1.2% at 7181, DAX +1.9% at 12336, CAC-40 +1.5% at 5153 , IBEX-35 +1.5% at 9785, FTSE MIB +1.1% at 22404 , SMI +1.8% at 8831, S&P 500 Futures +1.2%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade sharply higher across the board following on from a sharp rebound on Wall Street Friday, positive Asian markets as well as higher US futures this morning. Corporate news was headlined by earnings from Heineken which trades lower after missing sales forecasts with other notable earners including Comet Group, Puma and Carl Zeiss. On the M&A front potential bid interest for TDC has pushed shares higher while Faroe Petroleum trades highers after selling an interest in Fenja Development. Looking ahead to the US morning notable earners include Loews Corp and First Data.

Movers

Consumer Discretionary [ Heineken [HEIA.NL] -3.3% (Earnings)]

Consumer Staples [Carl Zeiss Meditec [AFX.DE] -0.1% (Earnings), Sixt [SIX2.DE] +4.2% (Outlook), Ladbrokes Coral [LCL.UK] +1.1% (Trading update)]

Materials [ Acacia Mining [ACA.UK] -9.0% (Earnings)]

Healthcare [ SES [SESG.FR] -5.6% (CEO and CFO change), Comet Group [COTN.CH] +1.6% (Prelim results)]

Energy [Faroe Petroleum [FPM.UK] +6.8% (Sells 17.5% working interest in Fenja Dev)]

Financials [Icade [ICAD.FR] +1.9% (Earnings)]

Telecom [TDC [TDC.DK] +6% (Approached by potential bidder)]

Speakers

BOE’s Vlieghe (dove):Domestic economy ready for slightly higher interest rates (in-line with Feb MPC statement)

Currencies

A quiet FX session ahead of some key inflation data later in the week (UK Jan CPI on Tuesday and US Jan CPI data on Wed). The recent pick up in global bond yields has been led from the US side. Market also anticipating President Trump’s budget and details on his infrastructure plan. Dealers noted that the US fiscal deterioration comes at a time when the labor market was near full employment and signs of wage inflation were emerging

EUR/USD was higher by 0.3% in the session but holding below the 1.23 handle. ECB's Nowotny (Austria) reiterated the concern about attempts by the US to politically influence the exchange rate.

GBP/USD was marginally higher but only in the mid-1.38 area despite that the BOE had turned more rate bullish last week. Dealers putting more weight on Brexit concerns as UK previously admitted that the growth potential of the economy had declined

USD/JPY steady as Japanese participants were off for holiday.

Fixed Income

Bund Futures trades down 35 ticks at 157.66 as the bearish trend remains intact. Upside targets 158.85, while a continued move lower targets the157.25 level.

Gilt futures trade at 120.88 down 55 ticks, ahead of tomorrow’s UK CPI data. Support continues to stand at 120.75 then 120.15, with upside resistance at 122.75 then 123.25.

Friday's liquidity report showed Thursday's excess liquidity fell to €1.899T from €1.901T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility falls to €3M from €80M prior.

Corporate issuance saw the primary market finish last week with ~$19B sold.

Looking Ahead

(PE) Peru Dec Trade Balance: No est v $0.6B prior

(MX) Mexico Jan ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 5.4% prior - OPEC Monthly Report

(US) President Trump expected to release his 2019 budget proposal and infrastructure details

05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €3.0B in 6-Month BuBills

06:00 (PL) Portugal Jan CPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior

06:00 (PL) Portugal Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior

06:00 (IL) Israel Jan Consumer Confidence: No est v 128 prior

06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2023 and 2028 bonds

06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economists Survey

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

07:00 (IN) India Jan CPI Y/Y: 5.1%e v 5.2% prior

07:00 (IN) India Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.1%e v 8.4% prior

08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming actions in week

08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)

08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:55 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 4.9-6.1B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month BTF Bills

09:30 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases

09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

11:00 (IS) Iceland Jan International Reserves (ISK): No est v 686B prior

12:30 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Quarterly Inflation Report

14:00 (US) Jan Monthly Budget Statement: $51.0Be v -$23.2B prior