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Dollar Retreats Again While Oil Pulls Back From Highs, UK Retail Sales In Focus
Here are the latest developments in global markets:
FOREX: The US dollar index was marginally lower on Friday, after also trading lower yesterday, even though yields on longer-term US Treasuries were on the rise.
STOCKS: Asian markets were in a sea of green today. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix indices were up by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively, both hovering near multi-decade highs. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 0.1% – touching its highest on record – while in Europe, futures tracking the Euro Stoxx 50 are in positive territory, albeit only marginally. Over in the US, the three major equity indices – Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite – all closed in the red yesterday, with the biggest loser out of the three being the Dow, which lost 0.37%. However, futures tracking the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq 100 currently suggest that these indices could open slightly higher today.
COMMODITIES: Energy prices retreated on Friday, with WTI and Brent crude trading lower by 1.3% and 1.0% respectively, despite the weekly EIA inventory data yesterday showing a larger-than-anticipated drawdown in US stockpiles. The downward correction is being attributed to profit-taking by traders on prior long-oil positions, as well as concerns that US production is likely to rise rapidly in the coming months as the extremely cold weather conditions in the US recede and drillers can increase their output freely. In precious metals, dollar-denominated gold was up nearly 0.4%, with no clear fundamental trigger behind the move other than the dollar's overall softness.

Major movers: Dollar on the defensive despite rising US yields
The US dollar index remained on the back foot on Friday, extending the losses it posted on Thursday, as the risk of a US government shutdown was seen as weighing on the currency. The House of Representatives passed a bill yesterday to fund government operations until February, but the bill has not been approved by the Senate yet.
Interestingly enough, the greenback underperformed even while the yields on longer-term US Treasuries were moving higher, something that is usually positive for the currency. This suggests that the yields on US bonds may be rising for the “wrong reasons”. Typically, rising yields signal investors' expectations that a strengthening US economy could see the Federal Reserve accelerate its tightening pace. This is usually positive for the dollar. This time around, though, yields may be rising because major buyers of US bonds (such as China and Japan) are cutting back on their purchases, or perhaps due to markets speculating that the recent deficit-funded tax cuts could make US debt even more unsustainable. It should be noted that the 10-year Treasury yield is now above 2.64%, a level which has been widely touted recently as the “line in the sand”, after which Treasuries become attractive to hold relative to equities. This may also be a factor behind the tumble in US stocks yesterday.
Elsewhere, there was little movement in the currency market. The euro gained somewhat yesterday, after ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said that the eurozone is no longer in “recovery”, but is now in expansion. His comments were seen as another hawkish sign that the ECB may be set to scale back its massive stimulus program later in the year.
The antipodeans were mixed on Friday, with aussie/dollar trading 0.2% higher, but kiwi/dollar being down nearly 0.1%. That said, both pairs are still hovering near four-month highs.
It is also notable that the Chinese currency rose to a fresh more-than-two-year high versus the greenback – equivalently dollar/yen fell to a more-than-two-year low, specifically touching 6.3870 – and is on path to recording its sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest such stretch since January 2017.

Day ahead: UK retail sales and prospect of US government shutdown at center of attention
The most important release during morning European trading hours will pertain to UK retail sales for the month of December. Those are scheduled for release at 0930 GMT. A notable decline is expected on a monthly basis, but a rebound on a yearly basis. The readings are of significance because they can also show whether the squeeze in real incomes – by virtue of inflation outpacing wage growth – continues to act as a drag on consumer spending and consequently growth in the economy overall.
Canadian manufacturing sales for the month of November will be made public at 1330 GMT.
In the US, the release of the University of Michigan's preliminary survey on January consumer sentiment due at 1500 GMT is expected to attract attention. Expectations are for the reading to reflect an improvement in consumer sentiment, following the previous month's decline.
Market participants' concerns for a possible US government shutdown have been acting to the detriment of the US currency – though a shutdown occurring is an unlikely scenario. The House of Representatives passed a bill funding the government through February 16 on Thursday. The bill though needs to be approved by the Senate as well; this being a tougher challenge given the slimmer Republican majority in the Senate and recent disputes between President Trump and the Democrats over the extension of funding for the Children's Health Insurance Program. The relevant vote is anticipated to take place today, with a positive outcome likely to alleviate some uncertainty and perhaps help the dollar claw back some of its losses. Investors will be monitoring the situation.
Fed policymakers making appearances include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who is scheduled to participate in a discussion titled “Thoughts on the Economy” at 1345 GMT, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles who will be speaking on bank regulation at 1800 GMT, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams who will be talking at a Bay Area forecasting conference. All three are FOMC voting members.
In oil markets, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly report is due at 0900 GMT. The report touches on issues affecting oil markets, looking at demand and supply as well. The US Baker Hughes oil rig count will be released at 1800 GMT.

Technical Analysis: GBPUSD bullish in short-term though RSI overbought
GBPUSD has posted considerable gains in recent days and is currently trading not far below the more than one-and-a-half-year high of 1.3942 recorded on Wednesday. Technical indicators support the case for a bullish picture in the short-term: the Tenkan- and Kijun-sen lines are positively aligned and the RSI is rising; a note of caution though as RSI is in overbought territory above 70.
Stronger retail sales figures out of the UK are expected to further boost the pair with immediate resistance potentially coming around Wednesday's high of 1.3942. As previously stated, the price is at the moment close to this level – a break above would shift focus to the 1.40 handle as an additional barrier to the upside, this being a potential psychological level.
If the data disappoint though, the pair is anticipated to head lower. In this case, support could come around another potential psychological mark, namely the 1.38 handle.
Of course, developments in the US also have the capacity to spur movements in the pair during Friday's trading.
USDCAD Remains Neutral After Failing To Regain 1.25 Handle
USDCAD remains neutral on the daily chart, pivoting around the key 1.2500 level since the start of January. The pair has been unable to sustain gains after a break of this level last week and consequently, the market has been stuck in a multi-week range roughly between 1.2350 and 1.2600.
Technical indicators that were strongly bearish are now turning neutral, suggesting that downside momentum is fading at least in the near term. The 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages are moving sideways, indicating a lack of a clear trend.
The 100-day MA is providing immediate resistance just under 1.2590, while near-term support is expected at 1.2355.
In the bigger picture, USDCAD remains under pressure as it failed to make a sustained move above 1.2900 and declined from this area in December after finding strong resistance at the 200-day MA. A rise above the key 1.3000 level is required in order to bring about a more bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Stalls Rally At 1-½ Year Highs, Remains In Bullish Phase
GBPJPY remains in a bullish phase but has stalled its recent rally after reaching its highest level since mid-June 2016.
On the 4-hour chart, the market became overbought and subsequently made a corrective move lower. This is indicated by the RSI reaching above 70 after GBPJPY surpassed the prior high of June 8 (153.70) and moved higher.
Immediate support is now at 153.70 and resistance at yesterday’s high of 154.57. The outlook remains bullish on the short and medium-term time frames. So losses are expected to be limited and strong support is seen at the key 153 level. A move below 152 would indicate an end to the short-term bullish phase.
As long as support at 153.70 holds in the near term, then the odds for another leg higher will likely increase, with scope for GBPJPY to rise to the next handle of 154 and from here, the next target will be the 160 level.

NZDUSD Intraday Analysis
NZDUSD (0.7302):The New Zealand dollar continues to trade flat around the 0.7300 handle with the currency pair failing to close any higher. This consolidation could keep the NZDUSD trading flat in the near term. This also suggests however, that the NZDUSD could be ripe for posting a correction. Support at 0.7160 remains in view to the downside as it marks a horizontal support level as well as the break out level from the falling trend line.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis
USDJPY (110.88):The USDJPY was seen pulling back following Wednesday's strong gains. Price action has cleared the short term resistance level of 110.70 and any declines could be limited to this level in the near term. For the moment, with support being formed at the 110.70 region, USDJPY could be looking to move sideways. Resistance is seen at 111.61 - 111.51 level and further gains can be expected only on a breakout above this level. Still, the next major resistance level at 112.04 will need to be breached

EURUSD Intraday Analysis
EURUSD (1.2260):The EURUSD reversed losses yesterday as the currency pair once again turned bullish. However, the gains were limited within Wednesday's trading range. Further upside gains could be capped near the 1.2280 - 1.2290 level where resistance could likely form. A reversal at this level could signal a downside correction in the common currency. Support at 1.2090 - 1.2070 remains in view if the EURUSD manages to break past the previous lower reversal point at 1.2180. The currency pair could maintain this range going into next week's ECB meeting on Thursday.

USD Sinks As Politicians Cut It Close To Avoid Government Shutdown
The U.S. dollar was drifting lower as the dollar index weakened due to U.S. politicians cutting it close with passing the spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. While the House passed the bill yesterday, the Senate must now approve the spending bill in order to avoid the shut down. The USD was also hit by weaker housing starts and Philly Fed manufacturing index.
Earlier in the day, China's GDP beat expectations rising 6.8% on the quarter and posting a 6.9% annualized GDP growth for the year ending 2017.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is light. The UK's retail sales report will be coming out but is expected to show a decline of 0.8% for the month of December.
USDJPY Intraday Bearish Below 111.22 Level
The U.S dollar has moved lower against the Japanese yen, amidst a weakening U.S dollar index and growing fears of a potential U.S government shutdown. The USDJPY pair is currently testing the key 110.80 support level, after intraday buyers failed to hold onto the 111.22 level during Thursday trading. United States politics is starting to hurt overall U.S dollar sentiment, with many traders becoming cautious that a deal may not be made in time to avoid a U.S government shutdown.
USDJPY is bearish on an intraday basis while price-action trades below the 111.22 level, further downside towards 110.33 and 109.80 remains possible.
Should the USDJPY pair start to trade above the 111.22 level, further upside towards 111.48 and 111.69 appears likely.

More GBPUSD Gains Expected Above 1.3880 Level
The British pound continues to move higher against the U.S dollar, with price-action reaching 1.3924 in early Friday trading, after buyers moved the pair back above the key 1.3880 level. The GBPUSD currently trades well above the 1.3900 level, as the U.S dollar index remains under pressure heading into the weekend. Going forward, sterling traders will look to the release of December Retail Sales data from the United Kingdom, with most economists expecting a decline in UK spending.
The GBPUSD pair retains a strong bullish bias while price-action trades above the 1.3880 level, further upside towards 1.3940 and 1.4000 remains possible.
A loss of the 1.3880 level on the GBPUSD pair may provoke a sell-off towards the 1.3830 and 1.3758 support levels.

Dash Gains As Arizona State University Invests
This week, the prices of most cryptocurrencies fell as reports emerged that South Korea would shut down exchanges.
The news was significant because of the central role South Korean exchanges have in the cryptocurrencies ecosystem.
Dash was not spared. Its price fell from a high of $1200 to a low of $600.
On Thursday, Dash started to recover with its price gaining to a high of $885. Yesterday’s rise was not an isolated case. Most currencies gained as most traders moved to buy the dips.
Its rise was also associated with the company announced a new partnership with Arizona State University (ASU). The university will fund research by providing $350,000. Part of the funds will go into creating a Dash Scholars Program while others will go to blockchain course development.
Another part will go to funding a research lab that will work on improving the speed, efficiency, and security of dash. Traders were optimistic that such moves would improve credibility and use case of the currency.
As shown below, the currency is trying to find direction. The ADX indicator is currently at 19, which is an indication of a weak trend. Traders should watch out for a breakout above the weaker resistance level of $888.

