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EUR/CHF continues to push towards resistance area above 1.17 and support given at 1.1610 (27/10/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP is consolidating after the recent collapse. The pair has broken hourly support at 0.8791 (07/11/2017 low). Resistance is located at 0.8943 (27/11/2017 high). Expected to go even lower.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

AUD/USD's momentum is reversing showing that downside pressures are weakening. Hourly resistance is given at a distance at 0.7897 (13/10/2017 high). Expected to show renewed pressures towards key support at 0.7535 (22/06/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD is testing hourly support lies at 1.2667 (10/11/2017 low). Hourly resistance stands at 1.2917 ( 27/10/2017 high).Expected to show further bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF has been very volatile lately. The technical structure indicates further downside risks. The pair has failed to hold consistently above the parity. The road is wide-open for further decline. Hourly resistance is given at 0.9882 (30/11/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY keeps on pushing higher. The pair has strongly bounced back. Hourly resistance is given at 112.70 (30/11/2017 high).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD has been trading lower over the past few days but the technical structure indicates an extension of bullish momentum. Support is given at a distance at 1.3027 (06/10/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase towards resistance at 1.3657 (20/09/2017 high).

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD lies in a short-term bearish momentum. Hourly resistance is given at 1.1961 (27/11/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.1809 (30/11/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

Spot Gold holds within tight range on Tuesday and awaiting series of US PMI data for fresh signals. Repeated rejections at $1270 zone keep the downside protected for now, but upside attempts remain limited and keep near-term bias with bears. Widening daily Ichimoku cloud continues to weigh, along with converging daily MA's in bearish setup. Near-term risk remains at the downside for test of 200SMA ($1266) and lows of 27 / 06 Oct at $1263/60. Broken Fibo 61.8% of $1263/$1299 upleg caps for now and marks initial barrier at $1277, with extended upticks to be limited by daily cloud base ($1282).

Res: 1277, 1282, 1285, 1289
Sup: 1274, 1270, 1266, 1263

No breakthough – Sell GBP

One of our core themes for 2018 will be the ascensions of the EU from fragile union to a unified political and economic force. We can see the start of this transformation in the current EU/UK Brexit negotiations. British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker failed to make progress after hours of discussion with differences over Irish border proving the recent barrier. Externally members expressed confidence that a deal would arrange in time to allow EU policymakers to focus on the future trade relationship. However, internally the mood is more apprehensive. According to internal sources, talks will resume later this week. Despite all the progress made in the Brexit negotiations there is feeling that the EU is taking difficult position and the UK bending (highlighted by the divorced bill concessions).

We see a deal unlikely at 14-15 December EU Council meeting. Bullish EUR exposure were paired backs and GBP long increased on speculations of a breakthrough in negotiations. Short-term traders were caught on the wrong side, as negative news flow hit the wires and EURGBP rallied back to 0.8848. Give our long-term theme of a strong EU we suspect the risk rewards favors long EURGBP fading Brexit positive news. The Irish borader issue will find an ordinary solution but there will be another blocker right around the corned. And negotiators have not even got to the difficult part (trade). We have increased our view for a “hard” Brexit. EURGBP is holding around the 200d MA with a clear close above 0.8850 triggering an bullish extension to 0.8879 (55d MA).

Australia: RBA held rates unchanged.

The RBA Cash Rate Target has been maintained again at 1.50%. It is now the 16th consecutive months in a row that the rates is held at this level. It has also been since 2010 that the rates have not been increased.

At this rate level, we cannot consider that the housing market, one source of issue, will be soon cool off. On top of that markets have strong expectations that rates will remain on hold until at least 2019.

Yet, economic conditions look mixed. The low inflation and the low wages growth are preventing any rate hike in a near future despite forecasts from the Australian central bank. The RBA Governor mentioned that debt levels are high. Is this possible that this is actually the main reason for holding rates so low? We could hardly believe it. The era of free money has created and is still underpinning bubbles in all asset-class. Raising rates may trigger a massive bubble burst. We note that the Australian debt levels went from 15% to 45% of the GDP since 2009 (much sustainable than most of the G10 countries).

The Aussie is getting lower against the greenback and will likely continue to do so. The RBA will likely follow major central banks and not lead the move of monetary policy normalization. This is why we believe that the Aussie has some more downside room within the medium-term.