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The euro is starting to recover early week trading losses against the U.S dollar, with price-action moving back towards the 1.1876 resistance level. The EURUSD pair earlier slipped back towards the 1.1845 level, after disappointing EU Retail Sales data, with the monthly Retail Sales figures turning negative. The euro is now moving higher, supported by a softer U.S dollar, and traders moving away from British pounds and into euros. The single currency is increasingly technical, with the 1.1890 level the next big upside hurdle for the pair above the 1.1876 level.

The EURUSD pair will turn intraday bullish while trading above the 1.1876 technical level. Further upside towards the 1.1900 and 1.1940 resistance levels appears likely.

Should the pair again be rejected from the 1.1876 technical resistance level, it may lead to a EURUSD price-correction back towards the 1.1850 and 1.1808 technical support levels.

The U.S dollar struggled to break above the 112.70 technical level against the Japanese Yen, pressuring the pair lower during the European trading session. The USDJPY has now slipped back towards the 112.40 support level, as buying interest dried up before the 112.70 resistance level, pushing price lower. The U.S dollar index is currently losing bullish momentum and moving well below the key 93.20 level. Traders now await the release of the U.S Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey for the month of November.

The USDJPY pair remains intraday bearish while trading below the 112.70 level. Further downside towards the 112.20 level appears likely, with the USDJPY 200-day MA offering further strong support at the 111.58 level.

Should price action move above the 112.70 level, intraday buyers will look to push the USDJPY pair back towards the weekly price-high, found at the 113.10 level.

AUDJPY made a sharp rally recently, which we see it as a sharp corrective wave 4. Notice that price reached some significant resistance zones, which can offer turning points lower. First we see former swing high of wave iv), that usually acts as resistance for current wave four. Then we have Fibonacci ratios of 38.2 and 50.0, both turning point triggers. However, let's be patient and aware, that price is also close to the invalidation level- 86.65 and if breached the count would be invalidated. That said, a breach below the 85.36 level would confirm more weakness.

AUDJPY, 4H

Copper was sharply down on Tuesday and moved into negative territory, hitting two-month low at $3.0170.

Strong bearish acceleration was triggered profit-taking actions which also offset positive impact from better than expected China’s PMI data in November.

Fresh bearish acceleration broke below base at $3.0305/15 zone and in extension cracked next support at $3.0232, provided by ascending 100SMA.

Negative signal of bearish continuation of the downleg from $3.2580 high (the highest since July 2014), with close below $3.0324 (Fibo 61.8% of $2.8930/$3.2580) and $3.0305 base, needed to confirm.

Fresh bears would extend towards $2.9889 (bear-channel) and $2.9577 (Fibo 38.2% of $2.4720/$3.2580 rally) in extension.

Res: 3.0315, 3.0505, 3.0755, 3.1175
Sup: 3.0110, 3.0000, 2.9889, 2.9577

The CAC has started the week with strong gains. In the Monday session, the CAC is at 5355.80, down 0.64% on the day. On the release front, French Final Services PMI improved to 60.4, above the estimate of 60.2 points. Eurozone Final Services improved to 56.2, matching the forecast. On Wednesday, the Eurozone publishes Retail PMI.

French Final Services PMI looked sharp, punching above the symbolic 60-point level, its highest level since May 2011. This is indicative of strong expansion, as the service sector has been buoyed by strong customer demand and strong economic conditions. French service providers remain optimistic that activity in the sector will increase in the upcoming 12-month period. The French economy has rebounded in impressive fashion in 2017, and looks to wrap up the year on firm footing, as a strong manufacturing sector has triggered improved job growth.

Negotiations between Britain and the European Union appear to be back on track, after Prime Minister May essentially agreed to Europe’s demands over the Brexit bill, which could reach up to EUR 50 billion. Still, a breakthrough on the non-trade issues has been elusive. There were hopes that a breakthrough would be announced on Monday, following talks between Prime Minister May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juckner, but the gaps on two issues remain, for now. One thorny issue is that of northern Ireland and its border. The UK will clearly not remain in a customs union with the EU, but Ireland is insistent that there not be a hard border with the North, while the DUP, which is propping up the May government, is strongly against any border between the UK mainland and Northern Ireland. The second issue is whether the European Court of Justice will have a role protecting European citizens in the UK. The EU is in favor of a role for the court, while many British lawmakers feel that such a move would impinge on British sovereignty. The EU holds a meeting on December 12, and May is anxious to wrap up the non-trade sticking points and move on to trade talks by that date.

The DAX index has losses on Tuesday, erasing the small gains seen on Monday. Currently, the DAX is at 13,000.00, down 0.45% on the day. On the release front, German Final Services PMI edged lower to 54.3, short of the forecast of 54.9 points. Eurozone Final Services improved to 56.2, matching the forecast. On Wednesday, Germany releases Factory Orders and the Eurozone publishes Retail PMI.

Talks between Britain and the European Union appear to be back on track, after Prime Minister May essentially agreed to Europe’s demands over the Brexit bill, which could reach up to EUR 50 billion. Still, a breakthrough on the non-trade issues has been elusive. There were hopes that a breakthrough would be announced on Monday, following talks between Prime Minister May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juckner, but the gaps on two issues remain, for now. One thorny issue is that of northern Ireland and its border. The UK will clearly not remain in a customs union with the EU, but Ireland is insistent that there not be a hard border with the North, while the DUP, which is propping up the May government, is strongly against any border between the UK mainland and Northern Ireland. The second issue is whether the European Court of Justice will have a role protecting European citizens in the UK. The EU is in favor of a role for the court, while many British lawmakers feel that such a move would impinge on British sovereignty. The EU holds a meeting on December 12, and May is anxious to wrap up the non-trade sticking points and move on to trade talks by that date.

The DAX continues to enjoy the view around the symbolic 13,000 level, as global stock markets have been fueled by the quick progress of tax reform legislation in the US. The Senate passed a tax reform bill on the weekend, but the vote was a squeaker, 51-49, as the vote went along party lines, with one Republican voting against the bill. Now that that the House and the Senate have passed tax bills, a conference committee will try and hammer out a uniform bill which can be sent to President Trump and signed into law. If the bill does become law, it will mark the first major tax reform in the US in 30 years, and this would likely receive a thumbs up from investors and send global stock markets upwards.

Crude oil has finished its consolidation and is now ready to challenge the 60-dollar level. Expected to show continued increase. Support is given at a distance at 54.81 (14/11/2017 low)

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

Silver is heading lower. Hourly support can be found at 16.13 (07/08/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 17.46 (13/10/2017 high). Expected to keep pushing lower.

In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold is pushing lower. The technical structure confirms the end of the consolidation phase. Support lies at a distance at 1251 (08/08/2017 high). Resistance is located at 1288 (20/10/2017).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Bitcoin is still consolidating below 12k. The technical structure shows a tremendous positive short-term momentum. Hourly support is located at 9000 (29/11/2017 low). Strong support stands very far at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). In the shortterm, the digital currency should continue rising.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $40'000 in 2018.