Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9286; (P) 0.9305; (R1) 0.9319; More....

EUR/CHF is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor with 0.9343 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.9269 minor support will bring retest of 0.9204/9 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.9343 will now be a sign of near term bullish reversal, and target 0.9444 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9444 resistance holds. Decisive break of 0.9209 low will resumed long term down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9772 to 0.9209 from 0.9444 at 0.9096 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3996; (P) 1.4039; (R1) 1.4068; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook as consolidation continues below 1.4177. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is expected with 1.3930 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 1.4177 will resume larger up trend towards 1.4391 projection level. However, break of 1.3926 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3879).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is resuming with break of 1.3976 key resistance (2022 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391. Now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3418 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6432; (P) 0.6443; (R1) 0.6465; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6941 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.6348 support. Break there will target 0.6269 low next. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6503 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for rebound to 55 D MA (now at 0.6580).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.59; (P) 150.18; (R1) 150.71; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation above 148.64 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 148.64 will strengthen the case that rise from 139.57 has already completed at 156.754. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 156.74 at 146.12 next. Nevertheless, firm break of 151.94 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 156.74 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8758; (P) 0.8806; (R1) 0.8832; More…

USD/CHF' fall from 0.8956 resumed and the break of 0.8800 support suggests that deeper decline is underway. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8738). Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. Break of 0.8888 will bring retest of 0.8956 first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.8374 is seen as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2712; (P) 1.2742; (R1) 1.2790; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.2486 would target 55 D EMA (now at 1.2849). Strong resistance is expected there to limit upside, and bring resumption of whole fall from 1.3433. On the downside, below 1.2615 minor support will bring retest of 1.2486 low first. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the near term trend has reversed, and targets 1.3047 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3433, and price actions from there are correcting whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline is now expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.2849) holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound.

• GBPJPY bounces off uptrend line
• Stochastic and RSI head higher

GBPJPY has been moving higher over the last few days after the rebound from the support level around 188.00 and is currently trading near 192.00. This upward movement suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, with buyers stepping in to push prices higher.

The stochastic oscillator is heading toward the overbought area with strong momentum so far, while the RSI is trying to boost its positive sentiment below the neutral threshold of 50.

If the price continues the upside move, then it may find immediate resistance at the 193.55 level, which stands near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). Slightly higher, the 200- and 50-day SMAs around 195.00 could pose a significant obstacle before the price moves towards the crucial 199.70 level.

Alternatively, a bearish wave could potentially lead traders to engage in another battle with the short-term uptrend line at 188.90, which is located ahead of the 188.10 barricade. Below that, the bearish structure may pause at the 183.70 support.

Overall, the technical indicators suggest that GBPJPY could continue its upward trajectory in the short term, especially if it breaks above the resistance level at 195.00. However, traders should remain cautious and watch for any signs of reversal.

Gold prices dipped below 2,620.00 USD per troy ounce on Friday, marking a second consecutive session of decline. The value of the precious metal continues to be influenced by developments in US economic indicators and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Investor attention is particularly focused on the upcoming November US labour market data, poised to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy directions. Recent statistics indicating an increase in unemployment claims suggest potential cooling in the employment sector. This data arrives just ahead of the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, which is crucial for gauging the health of the US labour market.

The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December currently stands at 70%, with expectations of a 25-basis-point reduction. Such a cut would likely benefit Gold, as lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold.

On the demand side, despite a decline in interest in jewellery, China's investment in Gold remains robust, according to World Bank data, providing fundamental support to Gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 chart: Gold has experienced a growth wave, peaking at 2,666.35, followed by a correction down to 2,616.60. A new growth impulse towards 2,663.00 is underway, and we anticipate the formation of a consolidation range around this level. If the price breaks upward, it may continue its ascent towards 2,714.00. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line hovering near zero and pointing upwards.

H1 chart: the XAU/USD has completed a growth impulse to 2,640.00 and is likely to form a narrow consolidation range around this level. An upward breakout would suggest the continuation of the growth impulse to 2,663.00, potentially extending to 2,666.00. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 and trending upwards towards 80, indicating strong upward momentum.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0533; (P) 1.0562; (R1) 1.0615; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.0609 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.0330 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0729). But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. . On the downside, break of 1.0330 will resume the fall from 1.1213. Also, sustained trading below 1.0404 key fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404. Strong rebound from this level will keep price actions from 1.1273 (2023 high) as a medium term consolidation pattern only. However, sustained break of 1.0404 will raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 has reversed. That would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.0199 first. Firm break there will target 0.9534 low again.

Dollar steadied after yesterday’s selloff, recovering slightly as markets braced for the non-farm payroll report. Traders appear increasingly confident about a December rate cut, shifting the focus of today’s employment data toward its implications for January's FOMC meeting. While the report may still trigger some market volatility, many participants seem inclined to look past this release, awaiting key indicators like next week’s CPI or January's NFP for more decisive cues.

Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand Dollars remained under pressure, showing weakness despite the absence of a clear risk-off sentiment. Global equity markets are holding up well, with US indices near record highs and Germany’s DAX extending its powerful record-breaking rally. Australian stocks also hit new highs, albeit with slower momentum. The Antipodean currencies’ weakness could reflect rising concerns about the escalation of US-China tariff tensions under the incoming US administration next year.

For the week so far, Swiss Franc unexpectedly leads as the strongest performer, followed by Sterling and Dollar. Australian Dollar lags at the bottom, trailed by Kiwi and Yen. Euro and Canadian Dollar are positioned mid-pack.

Technically, AUD/CAD's fall from 0.9375 could still be a corrective move tot he rise from 0.8562. Strong rebound from rising channel support (now at 0.8966), followed by break of 0.9163 resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed, and keep the up trend from 0.8562 intact. However, decisive break of the channel support will indicate bearish trend reversal, and target 0.8851 support and below. Canada's upcoming employment data today could be the catalyst for AUD/CAD's next significant move.

In Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.77%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.52%. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.05%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.42%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.0179 to 1.055. Overnight, DOW fell -0.55%. S&P 500 fell -0.19%. NASDAQ fell -0.17%. 10-year yield closed flat at 4.180.

Japan's nominal wages growth hits multi-decade high, but real gains remain elusive

Japan’s labor market data for October showed nominal wages, or labor cash earnings, rose 2.6% yoy, in line with expectations. Regular pay, or base salary, grew 2.7% yoy, marking the fastest increase since November 1992. Full-time workers saw an even sharper wage rise at 2.8% yoy, the highest increase since comparable records began in 1994. Overtime pay also rebounded, registering a 1.4% yoy growth compared to a -0.9% decrease in the prior month.

However, real wages—adjusted for inflation—was stagnant, showing no change from a year ago. This followed declines of -0.4% and -0.8% yoy in September and August, respectively. The inflation rate used by Japan’s labor ministry for these calculations, excluding owners' equivalent rent, slowed to 2.6%, the lowest in nine months.

On the household front, spending fell -1.3% yoy, better than the forecasted -2.6% yoy decline but still reflecting cautious consumer behavior. Food expenditures, comprising around 30% of total spending, dropped -0.8% yoy. Other categories faced sharper declines, including a -13.7% yoy plunge in clothing and shoes, a -10.7% yoy drop in housing-related expenditures, and a -14.0% yoy decrease in education spending, such as tuition fees.

NFP’s role looms larger for January Fed pause while December cut looks set

The pivotal US non-farm payroll report today stands at the center of market focus, with its implications likely to influence both the Fed decision outlook, but probably more on January meeting than this month's.

Fed fund futures indicate a 70% probability of a 25bps rate cut this month, up from 66% a week ago. This reflects a growing expectation that recent economic data, including ISM services and manufacturing figures, ADP employment, and JOLTs openings, support further easing to 4.25%-4.50% at the December 18 meeting. This mounting confidence in Fed's decision is unlikely to be deterred by today's data, barring any drastic upside surprises.

However, sentiment regarding January paints a different picture, with just a 20% likelihood of another 25bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%. A stronger-than-expected NFP report today, particularly one highlighting a significant rebound in job growth after October's hurricane- and strike-induced distortions, could solidify expectations of a pause in January.

Recent labor market indicators offer a mixed but steady backdrop. ISM Manufacturing Employment improved to 48.1 from 44.4, while ISM Services Employment softened to 52.1 from 56.0. ADP employment showed a moderation in net job additions at 146K, down from a revised 184K prior. Meanwhile, the 4-week average of initial unemployment claims fell to a strong 218K from 236K. These data points suggest no major red flags for today’s NFP release.

In terms of market reactions, Dollar Index remains in a corrective phase after peaking at 108.07. While a recovery today is possible, near-term risks tilt to the downside as long as 106.72 resistance holds. Deeper pullback could extend to 38.2% retracement of 100.15 to 108.07 at 105.04 completion. Nevertheless, rise from 100.15 would remain in favor to resume at a later stage as long as 55 D EMA (now at 104.77) holds.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0533; (P) 1.0562; (R1) 1.0615; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.0609 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.0330 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0729). But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. . On the downside, break of 1.0330 will resume the fall from 1.1213. Also, sustained trading below 1.0404 key fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404. Strong rebound from this level will keep price actions from 1.1273 (2023 high) as a medium term consolidation pattern only. However, sustained break of 1.0404 will raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 has reversed. That would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.0199 first. Firm break there will target 0.9534 low again.