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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.39% against the CAD and closed at 1.2812.

Yesterday, the OECD projected the Canadian economy to accelerate 3.0% this year, before slowing to 2.1% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019 as the nation's central bank withdraws policy stimulus.

Separately, in its latest financial system review, the Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that risks to the Canadian financial system remain elevated mainly due to vulnerabilities created by the nation's high household debt that are continuing to rise. However, these risks are expected to ease over time as a stronger economy and tighter mortgage requirements would help improve economic conditions.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2819, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2774, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2730. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2844, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2870.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Headlines/Economic Data

Asian equities markets trade mixed despite sharp gains seen in the US.

Gains in Japan and Korea capped amid North Korean missile and upcoming Bank of Korea policy meeting

Shanghai and Hong Kong markets trade generally lower

Asian steelmakers outperform

Semiconductor names continue to be pinned under Morgan Stanley note on the industry issued Monday

BTC/USD Continues its surge above $10,000 (fresh record high) and continues to extend gains

Japan

Nikkei 225 opened +0.6%; closed +0.5%

TOPIX Securities Index +1.7%; Nomura +1.7% (announced a new ¥100B principal investment fund, buyback)

Nomura: New principle business will provide funding for areas including corporate restructurings and MBOs; To inject up to ¥100B in the investment fund

Megabanks track earlier rise in US financials: Mitsubishi UFJ +2.5%, Mizuho +1.8%, Sumitomo Mitsui +1.5%

TOPIX Iron & Steel Index +2.7%; Steelmakers trade generally higher, JFE +4.5%, Nippon Steel +3.5% (broker commentary)

Some chip-related shares remain under pressure: Tokyo Electron -5.5%, SUMCO -0.7%

Yamaha Motor -3% (Yamaha Corp to lower stake)

Nikkei looks at BOJ's vulnerability to a stock market downturn given the ¥20.3T worth of equity ETFs sitting on its balance sheet

OECD thinks BOJ should maintain easing

JAPAN OCT RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.2%E

According to Japan Business Federation (Keidanren): to ask for 3% wage increase - Japan press

(JP) Nikkei looks at BOJ's vulnerability to a stockmarket downturn given the ¥20.3T worth of equity ETFs sitting on its balance sheet

Korea

KOSPI opened +0.1%, has since pared gains

Samsung Electronics -0.9%

North Korea: Confirmed fired new type of ICBM at HWASONG-15 that puts entire US in range; launch was successful

South Korea Pres Moon: South Korea will strengthen its capabilities against North Korean provocations

South Korea military conducts drills following earlier North Korea missile launch – South Korean Press

Bank of Korea (BOK) Deputy Gov Yoon: says North Korea impact on markets to be limited – South Korean Press (Note: The BoK is said to have held an unscheduled meeting earlier today amid the North Korean launch)

Looking ahead: The Bank of Korea is due to hold its regularly scheduled policy meeting tomorrow. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 1.50%, according to one poll; Bank of Korea last raised rates in 2011

China/Hong Kong

Shanghai Composite opened +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%

Markets are currently in negative territory, as of the time of writing

Hang Seng Information Technology Index -1.1%; Semiconductor Manufacturing -2.4% (capital raise), Tencent -1%

Even still, Chinese steelmakers trading generally higher on supply constraints; Baosteel +2.6%

China property names, higher on Moody's report, Rated China property developers' sales rise strongly, amid slower national sales growth

(CN) China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) official Yu Xuejun: China's economy is still facing relatively large downward pressure; economic stimulus measures have been overly strong

(CN) Turkey imposes anti-dumping duty on some China flat sleet products

(CN) China CIRC (Insurance Regulator): Q3 solvency was generally adequate; 167 insurers avg solvency ratio 253%

(CN) NDRC: China to promote long-term coal contract implementation for 2018 – Chinese Press

(CN) PBoC OMO: Injects CNY240B in 7, 14-day, 63-day reverse repos v CNY250B injected in 7,14 and 63-day reverse repos prior; Net: Nil v nil prior (3rd consecutive net nil)

(HK) Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) 1-month HIBOR 1.18927%, up over 5bps (highest since 2008)

Alibaba planning to sell 5.5, 10, 20, 30 and 40 year US dollar denominated bonds

Yuan denominated bond issuance: Originwater Technology [300070.CN] said to cancel CNY1B bond offering on market volatility

Philippines now targeting planned issuance of yuan-denominated ‘Panda Bonds’ in Q1 (had targeted 2017)

(CN) PBoC sets yuan reference rate at 6.6011 v 6.5944 prior

Looking Ahead: China Nov Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing due for release on Thursday

Australia/New Zealand

ASX200 opened -0.1%, pared losses as session progressed; closed +0.4%

ASX 200 Utilities Index +1.6%, Consumer Discretionary +1.2%, Financials +0.7%, Resources +0.7%, Energy +0.7%

(AU) Australia sells A$900M v A$900M indicated in 2.75% Nov 21 2028 Bonds, avg yield, bid to cover 3.4x

(NZ) RBNZ semi-annual Financial Stability Report: financial system remains sound and risks to the system have reduced over the past six months

(NZ) RBNZ Spencer comments following release of Financial Stability Report: Does not have target for house price inflation; Expects extra 5K houses/year from Kiwibuild

OECD expects RBA to tighten in 2018 due to robust economic growth

(NZ) Fitch: New Zealand banks housing risk unlikely to up on easing of curbs

IDX.AU Capitol Health preparing unsolicited takeover offer at A$2.46/shr; +23%

Looking Ahead: Australia Q3 Private New Capital Expenditure data due for release on Thursday

Other Asia

(PH) Philippines Finance Sec Dominguez: Will reset panda bond offering to Q1 (had targeted 2017)

North America

US markets closed higher as Senate Budget Committee advanced tax bill: Russell 2000 +1.5%, Dow +1.1%, S&P500 +1%, Nasdaq +0.5%

S&P 500 Financial Sector +2.6%, Industrials Sector +1.5%

Tax Reform: (US) Senate Budget Committee advanced the tax bill; All 12 Republicans vote 'yes' including Senators Johnson and Corker; the 11 Democrats vote 'no'; The Budget Committee approval moved the bill to the full Senate, which could consider the bill later this week

Politics: (US) Congress unlikely to pass legislation this year to fund government agencies through Sept 30, 2018 – financial press; Therefore, Congress is likely to need a stop-gap, temporary funding legislation at least until late Jan to keep the federal government operating.

(US) Democratic leaders pull out of meeting with Trump on govt funding; will instead seek meeting with GOP leaders in Congress - press

Energy: Reportedly joint OPEC and non OPEC committee to support 9-month production cut extension (through 2018), with an option to review in June (as previously speculated)

(US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +1.8M v -6.4M prior

Mexico Central Bank Chief: Board needs to take most recent information into account with decisions; board agrees on need to remain 'vigilant' and to be cautious on inflation outlook

After Market Movers: Marvell Technology [MRVL] +3% (Q3 results above ests, mid-point of Q4 guidance above ests); Autodesk [ADSK] -13% (reported financial results and guidance, announced restructuring measures)

Looking Ahead: Second reading of US Q3 GDP, Fed’s Yellen to testify before Congress, DOE weekly Crude Inventories

Europe

(UK) Reportedly UK and EU agree Brexit divorce bill with tab between €45-55B (vs. EU demands of €60B) - UK Telegraph

(UK) Govt official: do not recognize UK Telegraph newspaper account of Brexit negotiations

(UK) Brexit ministry spokesperson: we are exploring how to build on recent momentum in talks so that we can move negotiations to the next phase
M&A: Cineworld [CINE.UK]: Regal Entertainment confirms merger talks

Looking ahead: Spain and German Nov prelim CPI

Levels as of 01:00ET

Nikkei225 +0.4%, Hang Seng -0.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.5%; ASX200 +0.5%, Kospi -0.1%

Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.1%; Nasdaq100 -0.0%, Dax -0.0%; FTSE100 -0.0%

EUR 1.1856-1.1839; JPY 111.67-111.38; AUD 0.7608-0.7583;NZD 0.6904-0.6884

Dec Gold +0.0% at $1,295/oz; Jan Crude Oil -0.5% at $57.70/brl; Mar Copper +0.5% at $3.11/lb

Dow Future Short term Elliott Wave view suggests that Intermediate wave (4) ended at 23204. The rally from there is proposed to be unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Minute wave ((a)) of 1 ended at 23599 and Minute wave ((b)) of 1 ended at 23432. Near term focus is on 23828 – 23922 to complete Minute wave ((c)), and this should also end Minor wave 1 and cycle from 11/15 low. Afterwards, Index should pullback in Minor wave 2 in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 11/15 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling any proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear again once Minor wave 2 pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing provided pivot at 23204 low stays intact.

YM_F Dow Future 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1806; (P) 1.1863 (R1) 1.1899; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1960 temporary top. As long as 1.1712 support holds, rise from 1.1553 is expected to continue. Above 1.1960 will target 1.2091 high first. Break there will resume medium term up trend from 1.0339 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494, which is close to 1.2516 long term fibonacci level. We'd expect strong resistance from there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1712 will indicate completion of the rise from 1.1553 and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1393) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3244; (P) 1.3315; (R1) 1.3410; More....

GBP/USD's rise from 1.3038 resumed after steep but brief pull back. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3651 to 1.3026 at 1.3412. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.3651 high. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.3412, followed by break of 1.3220 support, will indicate that price actions from 1.3026 is merely a correction. And intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 1.3026 low.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Nonetheless, subsequent fall was contained by 55 week EMA (now at 1.3069). Outlook is a bit mixed. For the moment, as long as 1.3835 support turned resistance holds, medium term rise from 1.1946 are viewed as a corrective pattern. That is, we'd expect another leg in the long term down trend through 1.1946 low. However, sustained break of 1.3835 should at least send GBP/USD to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9808; (P) 0.9830; (R1) 0.9860; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation above 0.9776 temporary low. As long as 0.9946 resistance holds, another fall is still expected. Below 0.9776 will extend the decline from 1.0037 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9656. We'll look for bottoming again below 0.9656 and above 0.9420. On the upside, break of 0.9946 resistance will indicate that the decline from 1.0037 has completed and bring retest of this resistance.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don't expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.05; (P) 111.34; (R1) 111.76; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 110.83 temporary low. As long as 112.71 resistance holds, fall from 114.73 is expected to continue. Below 110.83 will target 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. For the moment, we're still favoring the case medium term corrective pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. Hence, we'll looking for bottoming below 110.14 to bring another rise. On the upside, break of 112.71 will suggest that the fall from 114.73 is completed and turn bias to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 107.31 support holds, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. And another rise is in favor. Break of 114.73 resistance will target a test on 118.65 high first. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7582; (P) 0.7601; (R1) 0.7613; More...

At this point, AUD/USD is still staying in the consolidative pattern from 0.7531 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7729 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 0.7531 will resume whole decline from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. However, considering bullish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7729 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7896 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8049). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2771; (P) 1.2797; (R1) 1.2842; More....

No change in USD/CAD's outlook as the consolidation pattern from 1.2916 is still in progress. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.2598 resistance turned support and bring rebound. Above 1.2836 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2916 first. Further break of 1.2916 will resume whole rally from 1.2061 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2895). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We'll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8819; (P) 0.8900; (R1) 0.8954; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as it's still bounded in range of 0.8732/9032 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.9032 resistance intact, deeper decline is mildly in favor in the cross. Break of 0.8732 will resume the fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support level. However, on the upside, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.