Tue, Apr 21, 2026 07:38 GMT
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    Aussie Dollar Trading A Tad Lower This Morning

    GCI Financial

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.3% against the USD and closed at 0.7967 on Friday.

    LME Copper prices declined 0.2% or $16.0/MT to $6776.0/MT. Aluminium prices remained flat at $2113.5/MT.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7966, with the AUD trading slightly lower against the USD from Friday's close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 0.7927, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7889. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7999, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8033.

    Going ahead, traders will anxiously await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision, due to be announced tomorrow.

    The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    USD/CAD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2325; (P) 1.2408; (R1) 1.2477; More....

    Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 1.3793 (and 1.4689) would target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2490 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2662 resistance holds.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.2777 resistance will indicate reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.3793 key resistance. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper decline.

    USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

    USD/CAD Daily Chart

    Euro-Zone’s Manufacturing Sector Growth Confirmed At A 2-Month High In August

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.41% against the USD and closed at 1.1864 on Friday.

    In economic news, the Euro-zone's final Markit manufacturing PMI climbed to a level of 57.4 in August, confirming the flash print. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 56.6.

    Separately, Germany's final Markit manufacturing PMI rose less than initially estimated to a level of 59.3 in August, compared to an advance to a level of 59.4 indicated in the flash estimate. In the preceding month, the PMI had registered a reading of 58.1 in the previous month.

    The greenback gained ground against its key peers, as investors shrugged-off disappointing US non-farm payrolls report and cheered robust ISM manufacturing data.

    Data indicated that non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 156.0K in August, falling well short of market expectations for an advance of 180.0K. Non-farm payrolls had recorded a revised increase of 189.0K in the prior month. Further, the nation's average hourly earnings of all employees posted a sluggish gain of 0.1% on a monthly basis in August, spurring fresh doubts that whether the Federal Reserve would be able to stick to its timetable for further interest rate rises as wage growth remains anaemic. Average hourly earnings of all employees had registered a rise of 0.3% in the prior month, while market participants had envisaged for a rise of 0.2%. Moreover, the nation's unemployment rate registered an unexpected rise to 4.4% in August, while markets anticipated it to remain steady at 4.3%.

    In other economic news, the US ISM manufacturing activity index jumped more-than-expected to a level of 58.8 in August, expanding at its fastest pace in six-years, suggesting that manufacturing sector will remain a key pillar of growth in the world's largest economy. The index had registered a level of 56.3 in the previous month, while markets were anticipating for an advance to a level of 56.5. Meanwhile, the nation's final Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence index recorded a rise to a level of 96.8 in August, while the preliminary figures had indicated a rise to a level of 97.6. The index had registered a level of 93.4 in the previous month. On the other hand, the nation's construction spending unexpectedly fell 0.6% MoM in July, dipping to a nine-month low and defying market consensus for a rise of 0.5%. Construction spending had posted a revised fall of 1.4% in June. Also, the nation's final Markit manufacturing PMI eased less than initially estimated to a level of 52.8 in August, compared to a level of 53.3 in the prior month. The preliminary figures had indicated a drop to a level of 52.5.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1885, with the EUR trading 0.18% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 1.183, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1775. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.196, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2035.

    Going forward, the Euro-zone's Sentix investor confidence index for September, scheduled to release in a few hours, will garner significant amount of market attention.

    The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    UK’s Manufacturing Sector Activity Rose To A 4-Month High In August

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.12% against the USD and closed at 1.2926 on Friday.

    On the macro front, the Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to a level of 56.9 in August, notching a four-month high level and defying market consensus for a fall to a level of 55.0. The PMI had recorded a revised level of 55.3 in the prior month.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2955, with the GBP trading 0.22% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 1.2919, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2884. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2977, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3000.

    Moving ahead, market participants will keep a close watch on Britain's Markit construction PMI for August, due to release in a few hours.

    The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    Japanese Yen Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.19% against the JPY and closed at 110.27 on Friday.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 109.8, with the USD trading 0.43% lower against the JPY from Friday's close.

    Overnight data showed that Japan's monetary base rose 16.3% on an annual basis in August, higher than market expectations for an advance of 15.6%. The monetary base had recorded a revised gain of 15.7% in the prior month.

    The pair is expected to find support at 109.42, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.03. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.33, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.85.

    Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor Japan's Nikkei services PMI for August, due to release overnight.

    The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4941; (P) 1.5014; (R1) 1.5057; More....

    Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for 1.4732 support. The cross could have failed 1.5226 resistance and rebound from 1.4421 is likely finished. Fall from 1.5173 is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.5226. Break of 1.4372 will target 1.4421 again. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.5042 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5173 resistance instead.

    In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

    Switzerland’s Real Retail Sales Dipped In July

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.55% against the CHF and closed at 0.9649 on Friday.

    Macroeconomic data revealed that in Switzerland's real retail sales registered a drop of 0.7% on an annual basis in July, following a revised gain of 1.7% in the prior month.

    On the other hand, the nation's SVME–manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a level of 61.2 in August, confounding market consensus for a decline to a level of 60.2. The PMI had recorded a reading of 60.9 in the prior month.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9608, with the USD trading 0.42% lower against the CHF from Friday's close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 0.9552, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9497. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9658, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9709.

    The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    Canadian Manufacturing Sector Growth Cooled In August

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.75% against the CAD and closed at 1.2386 on Friday.

    In economic news, data indicated that Canada’s Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a level of 54.6 in August, after recording a level of 55.5 in the prior month.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2386, with the USD trading flat against the CAD from Friday’s close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 1.2321, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2255. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2472, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2557.

    Amid a holiday observed in Canada today, investor sentiment will be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

    The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9175; (R1) 0.9201; More

    With 0.9236 minor resistance intact, decline from 0.9305 short term top is expected to extend to 55 day EMA (now at 0.8998). Sustained trading below there will likely start the third leg of the consolidation from 0.9304 and target 0.8303 key support again. On the upside, above 0.9236 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9305 instead.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it is finished yet. But in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes. Firm break of 0.9799 high will target 61.8% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.

    EUR/GBP 4 Hours Chart

    EUR/GBP Daily Chart

    EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1403; (P) 1.1430; (R1) 1.1465; More...

    Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's staying in consolidation from 1.1537. On the upside, break of 1.1537 resistance will confirm resumption of larger rally from 1.0629. In that case, EUR/CHF should target 1.2 key resistance level next. On the downside, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0830 to 1.1537 at 1.1267 will extend the correction to 61.8% retracement at 1.1100 before completion.

    In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1087 resistance turned support holds.