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• AUDUSD is trading sideways, a tad above 0.6547
• The downtrend from the September 30 high remains in place
• Momentum indicators are mostly bearish

AUDUSD is trading sideways today, a tad above 0.6547. The bearish trend from the September 30 peak remains firmly in place, and, quite interestingly, AUDUSD bulls have failed, up to now, to stage an upleg and temporarily interrupt the ongoing selloff. The market’s focus is on the US presidential election although this week’s US data could also materially impact the dollar’s performance.

The momentum indicators are bearish at this juncture. In more detail, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging higher and thus signalling a strong bearish trend in AUDUSD, while the RSI is comfortably trading below its 50-midpoint. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator is hovering inside its oversold territory (OS), but it has failed, up to now, to climb above its moving average (MA). A move above both its MA and OS could be the signal the bulls have been waiting for in order to finally stage a small rally.

Should the bears remain hungry, they could try to break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 13, 2022 – February 2, 2023 uptrend at 0.6547. The door could then open for a move towards the March 31, 2023 low at 0.6458, with the next plausible target being the September 6, 2023 low at 0.6536.

On the other hand, the bulls are desperate for a small upleg. They could firstly try to keep AUDUSD above the 0.6547 level and then gradually push it higher towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6676. If successful, they could then test the resistance set by the busier 0.6663-0.6707 area, which is populated by the July 14, 2022 low and the 100-day SMA.

To sum up, AUDUSD bears remain in control and potentially in a strong position for next big US events starting with Friday’s job report. 

Following BoJ’s decision to maintain its current interest rate, Governor Kazuo Ueda said at the press conference that the central bank has "no preset idea" on the timing of its next rate increase. He added that each policy decision will be based on a thorough assessment of the latest economic data and outlook revisions.

Ueda highlighted promising signs from the latest Tokyo CPI data, observing that the "pass-through of rising wages on services prices is broadening." He added that BoJ will closely monitor whether this trend spreads across the nation.

Domestically, wages and prices are generally moving in line with BoJ forecasts, and recent changes in companies' wage- and price-setting behaviors over the past two years point to a potential structural shift. However, Ueda acknowledged that it’s uncertain whether this shift will gain momentum or fade over time.

Ueda also pointed out the importance of currency volatility and commodity prices, as these factors significantly impact domestic import prices.

While recent political developments in Japan are unlikely to alter BoJ’s price forecasts, Ueda noted that substantial policy changes could prompt revisions as needed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0814; (P) 1.0842; (R1) 1.0885; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first, and further decline is expected with 1.0871 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0760 will resume the fall from 1.1213 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0871 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0945).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 (2023 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low), with fall from 1.1213 as the third leg. Downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404, to bring up trend resumption at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.80; (P) 153.33; (R1) 153.92; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 153.87 is still extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 148.82) holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2919; (P) 1.2981; (R1) 1.3025; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in consolidation above 1.2906 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3070 minor resistance holds. Below 1.2906 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break 1.3070 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering mildly bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.3433 already. Price actions from there are seen as correction to whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8646; (P) 0.8672; (R1) 0.8700; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation continues below 0.8699 temporary top. Further rally remains in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8609) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698 will argue that fall from 0.9223 has completed after defending 0.8332 low. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8899 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Markets

“Overall borrowing between 2024-25 and 2028-29 is higher than the March forecast by £142.2 billion, an average of £28.4 billion a year. This represents one of the largest fiscal loosenings of any fiscal event in recent decades.” It’s the UK Office for Budget Responsibility’s summary of Chancellor Reeves autumn Budget yesterday. UK gilts initially stomached the Budget extremely well, with the lack of Truss/Kwarteng-like surprises causing yield drops of >10 bps across the curve compared to Tuesday’s close. Things took a turn after the OBR dropped its analysis with a massive >20 bps comeback from the intraday lows. Yields eventually closed 4.1 (30-yr) to 6 bps (2-yr) higher. Markets trimmed bets for BoE easing to <100 bps of cuts in the year ahead. EUR/GBP rebounded from the low 0.83 to 0.8375 amid significant Bund underperformance. Yields rose +/-12 bps at the front in the wake of (much) higher-than-expected European growth and inflation reaccelerating quicker than anticipated. Readings from several national member states yesterday suggest a faster return of the European figure back above 2% from the 1.7% currently. Risks to analysts’ estimate of 1.9% for the October outcome released later today are clearly skewed to the upside. US yields rose up to 8.5-9.4 bps (2-yr, 3-yr) on a consensus-crushing ADP job report, solid, consumer-driven GDP growth and strong housing data. Narrowing interest rate differentials nevertheless gave the euro the upper hand against the dollar. EUR/USD jumped to 1.0856. We think the downside around 1.076-1.0778 is better protected from the euro’s perspective. The eco calendar this week still has something in offer for the USD though. PCE inflation for September today is a non-event after yesterday’s Q3 release. But the Employment Cost Index (Q3) and weekly jobless claims serve as wildcards. The October payrolls and manufacturing ISM are due on Friday. We think material upside surprises are needed for dollar strength to have technical implications with the US elections and Fed policy meeting next week drawing close. The US 2-yr and 10-yr are trading around first resistance of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively (38.2% and 50% recovery on the 2023-2024 high-to-low).

News & Views

The Bank of Japan delivered the much-anticipated status quo this morning, keeping the key policy rate level at 0.25%. Updated growth and inflation forecasts barely changed compared with the July update. The BoJ plots a 0.6%-1.1% (from 1%)-1% growth path for fiscal years 2024-2026. Core CPI is expected to average 2.5%-1.9% (from 2.1%)-1.9% over that same time horizon. The BoJ cited a recent decline in oil prices as main reason for the FY2025 revision. The central bank sticks to the view that inflation risks are tilted on the upside. JPY-weakness is an (unmentioned) reason for concern, stoking import prices. One of the reasons why the BoJ didn’t commit to another rate hike (yet) is that it pays attention to the future course of overseas economies, particularly the US’. Governor Ueda holds a press conference later today. USD/JPY trades a tad softer this morning, sliding from 153.50 to 152.80 currently.

Czech National Bank vice-governor Zamrazilova is the first to openly suggest she might opt for a pause as the CNB’s rate cut cycle slowly draws to an end. The policy rate currently stands at 4.25% compared with an estimated neutral rate of at least 3.5%. Zamrazilova still sees room for rates to decrease further, but she’s evaluating how to spread those rate cuts in time. She added that risks to fulfilling the inflation target next year are prevailing at the moment and that’s a reason for caution. Latest eco data suggest that household spending was stronger than in H1 2024 and will probably accelerate further next year, helped by growing real wages. The worsening global outlook nevertheless suggest a downward growth revision at next week’s policy meeting. Money markets discount a 25 bps rate cut, but Zamrazilova’s comments suggests that a pause is possible in December. EUR/CZK continues to trade near this year’s weakest levels (25.40 compared to 25.53 YTD high).

European and US markets nosedived yesterday on the back of ‘good news is bad news’ and the futures hint at a bearish start to Thursday’s session.

First, Spain, France and Germany revealed better-than-expected growth numbers in Q3. Germany even eked out an unexpectedly positive figure, which certainly helped – I wouldn’t say ‘to improve’ the mood but – to prevent sentiment from getting worse in the midst of a jungle of bad economic news, there. VW posted its least profitable quarter since the pandemic but said that they could avoid factory closures IF the workers accepted a 10% decrease to their salaries and the German unemployment change came in almost double the expectations, but seeing the German economy eke out that 0.2% advance in Q3 was a good surprise.

Now, the encouraging GDP figures came in with a cost: inflation in Spain and Germany came in higher than expected. Inflation in Germany crossed past the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target and reached 2.4% in October.

The aggregate CPI update for Eurozone, due this morning, is expected to brush up against the 2% target. The combination of better-than-expected growth and higher-than-expected inflation weighs on accelerated rate cut expectations from the ECB. And the latter is positive for the euro. This is why the EURUSD tested the 1.0870 resistance, which matches the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the September to October selloff and the 200-DMA, but couldn’t clear it.

And the reason why it couldn’t clear it is because mixed data came in from the US. There, the GDP update came in slightly softer than expected, at 2.8% versus 3% printed previously, but consumer spending jumped from 2.8% to 3.7% defying the rising credit card debt and delinquencies, and more importantly, PCE prices fell to 1.5%, and core PCE prices fell less than expected but printed 2.20% - which now is very close to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% policy target. The September core PCE index is due today and is expected to show a further slowdown as well.

Soft landing: Achieved?

With the current data that we have in hand, some investors now argue that the Fed already achieved the soft landing that it was dreaming of. As such, the US dollar was weaker yesterday because the softening price pressures could allow the Fed to continue its rate cuts, but the downside remained limited because the data suggests that the cuts could be moderated. The ADP report showed yesterday that the US economy added 233K new private jobs last month, more than the double of 110K expected by analysts and was stronger than the number printed a month earlier. Of course, Friday’s official data will say the last word but Friday’s figures could also bring some positive surprises if the Boeing strike and hurricanes had a lighter than expected impact on the numbers. We will see.

For now, the US dollar remains bid despite yesterday’s weakness, the 2-year yield spiked higher – as the Fed doves scaled back their Fed cut bets. A 25bp cut at next week’s FOMC meeting remains on cards. The probability assessed to that is around 96%. But the Fed is not seen repeating the 50bp cut anytime soon.

Budget was ...ok

In the UK, the budget day couldn’t give the pound the energy it needed to clear the 1.30 offers. The announcement went as smoothly as it possibly could – given the amplitude of the bad news. Reeves said that the country will raise taxes by £40bn pounds to boost spending on public services. The UK also announced earlier that they would boost gilt sales by almost £20bn this fiscal year. But the spending would be less than expected by the market. That brilliant management of expectations helped traders keep their nerves together. The UK’s 10-year yield spiked to 4.40% but the selloff in sterling remained contained as the Bank of England’s (BoE) hopes of seeing further inflation easing in the UK went up in smoke as increased spending pressures are now knocking on the door.

China and Japan

China posted a small but unexpected expansion in its manufacturing sector in October, a piece of news that may have help crude oil extend yesterday’s recovery, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected, and Governor Ueda pointed out concerns regarding the increasingly uncertain global economic outlook. But the board ‘remains committed to further rate increases if economic and price data align with its forecasts’ and that line capped the upside in the USDJPY limited, and gave some strength to the yen.

Earnings update

Microsoft and Meta released their Q3 earnings yesterday, after the bell, and the results were good. Microsoft posted a better-than-expected quarterly revenue growth, fueled by its cloud computing business and Office – which integrates AI capabilities. But the company projected slower quarterly growth in cloud revenue, highlighting its challenge in bringing data centers online quickly enough to meet the rising demand for AI services. Shares dropped 3.7% in the afterhours trading.

Similar with Meta. The company posted strong quarterly results, improved ad revenue thanks to AI, but the weaker than expected user number in Q3, and the plans to spend more on AI didn’t please investors. The shares fell 3% in the afterhours trading.

Today, it’s Apple and Amazon’s turn to go to the earnings confessional. And they should not only meet and beat expectations but came in with a solid forecast to keep enthusiasm going.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6541; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6600; More...

A temporary low was formed at 0.6536 with current recovery and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6700) holds. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 will target 0.6348 support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3886; (P) 1.3913; (R1) 1.3932; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.3946/76 resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.3875 minor support will turn intraday bias and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, sideway consolidation pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) might still extend further. While another decline cannot be ruled out, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Decisive break of 1.3976 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391.