Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8496; (P) 0.8524; (R1) 0.8545; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and near term outlook stays bearish. Fall from 0.8551 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Break of 0.8469 support will turn bias to the downside for 0.8303 low. Break will target 0.8116 key cluster support level. On the upside, however, break of 0.8643 resistance will now dampen this bearish case and turn bias to the upside for 0.8851 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3804; (P) 1.3892; (R1) 1.3945; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside today. Current decline is part of the medium term fall from 1.6587 and should target 1.3671 key support level. At this point, we'd still expect strong support around 1.3671 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4038 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn focus back to 1.4289 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen but, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0650; (P) 1.0668; (R1) 1.0680; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays mildly bearish as long as 1.0706 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.0620 key support level will extend the larger decline from 1.1198 to 1.0485 fibonacci level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.0706 minor resistance will raise the chance of medium term reversal. In that case, focus will be turned back to 1.0749 and then 1.0897 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3041; (P) 1.3099; (R1) 1.3139; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment with mixed near term outlook. On the upside, break of 1.3387 resistance will confirm that fall from 1.3598 has completed at 1.2968. And more importantly, rise from 1.2460 is still in progress. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3598 and above. On the downside, below 1.2968 will revive the case that rise from 1.2460 is completed and turn outlook bearish for this low. Overall, choppy rise from 1.2460 is still seen as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we'd look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7631; (P) 0.7660; (R1) 0.7702; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.7510 support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. However, lost of upside momentum is seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. We'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7510 minor support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for this key near term support level.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0608; (P) 1.0638 (R1) 1.0668; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains the downside for the moment. Corrective rise from 1.0339 should have completed at 1.0838 already. Deeper decline should now be seen to retest 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of medium term down trend. On the upside, however, above 1.0713 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2442; (P) 1.2481; (R1) 1.2523; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Overall outlook remains unchanged. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9997; (P) 1.0029; (R1) 1.0054; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, a short term bottom is formed at 0.9860 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.0038) will pave the way for a test on 1.0342 high. On the downside, below 0.9935 minor support will turn focus back to 0.9860 instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.28; (R1) 113.73; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 111.58 extends to as high as 114.16 so far today. As noted before, correction from 118.65 should have completed at 111.58, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias stays cautiously on the upside for 115.36 resistance. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming. On the downside, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Risk appetite extends to Asian markets, following the records close in US last week. At the time of writing, Japan Nikkei is trading up 98 pts or 0.5%, HK HSI is up 120 pts or 0.5%. Yen trades broadly lower on risk appetite, together with Swiss Franc. On the other hand, Sterling and Dollar are trading mildly higher. In other markets, Gold dips back to 1230 on Dollar strength and it looks like recent pull back from 1246.6 would extend lower. WTI crude oil is still bounded in range of 50.8/55.3, without any direction. Released in Asian session, Japan Q4 GDP rose 0.2% qoq, below expectation of 0.3% qoq. GDP deflator dropped -0.1% yoy, above expectation of -0.2% yoy.

IMF Lagarde Optimistic on US...

IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Sunday that "from the little we know", and "the little we hear", there are "reasons to be optimistic" about the US economy. She noted that "it is likely that there will be tax reform, it is likely there will be additional investment in infrastructure and as a result of that it is very likely that growth will be up in the US." However, she also warned of the effect of higher US interest rate and strong Dollar. She said that "currency higher, interest rate higher - that is a tightening that is going to be difficult on the global economy and for which economies have to prepare." Back in January, IMF raised US growth forecast to 2.3% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.

...but worried about Europe

On the other hand, Lagarde expressed her worries "about some of these elections" in Europe, including France, the Netherlands and Germany. Nonetheless, she sounded calm as she noted that win of populist candidates might not be totally negative. She pointed to Italy and Greece as examples. Lagarde noted that when "Matteo Renzi" was elected as Italian prime minister back in 2014, " everyone thought 'oh my god, what is going to happen with this maverick?'" But then, Renzi's administration was "not much mavericking". meanwhile, after Alexis Tsipras's win in Greece in 2015, it has been "difficult" and "laborious" dealing with Greece but "changes are taking place".

Fed Yellen to Highlight the Week

Looking ahead, Fed chair Janet Yellen's semiannual testimony to Congress is the main focus of the week. Yellen will testify before the Senate on Tuesday and the House on Wednesday. Markets would look for signals on any change on Fed's forecasts of three rate hike this year. Some might also want to get hints on chance of March high. However, based on uncertainties over the fiscal policies Trump would adopt, it's likely that Yellen would sound non-committal. As of Friday, fed fund futures are pricing in 13.3% chance of March hike, and 67.3% chance of hike by June.

Here are some highlights for the week ahead:

• Tuesday: Australia NAB business confidence; China CPI, PPI; German GDP, CPI final, ZEW; Italy GDP; Eurozone ZEW, industrial production; Swiss CPI, PPI; UK CPI, PPI; US PPI
• Wednesday: UK employment; Eurozone trade balance; US CPI, retail sales, Empire state manufacturing, industrial production, business inventories, NAHB housing index
• Thursday: Australia employment; ECB monetary policy accounts; US housing starts and building permits, jobless claims, Philly Fed survey
• Friday: New Zealand retail sales; Eurozone current account; UK retail sales; Canada foreign securities purchases; US leading indicator

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.28; (R1) 113.73; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 111.58 extends to as high as 114.16 so far today. As noted before, correction from 118.65 should have completed at 111.58, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias stays cautiously on the upside for 115.36 resistance. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming. On the downside, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Economic Indicators Update

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