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GBP/USD remained bounded in range of 1.2346/2705 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected.

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USD/CHF edged higher to 1.0140 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Nonetheless, with 0.9966 support intact, further rise is in favor. Above 1.0140 will turn bias to the upside and target a test on 1.0342 resistance. Based on neutral medium term outlook, we'd be cautious on topping at around 1.0342. Meanwhile, break of 0.9966 will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9860. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9860.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7740 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. The pair continued to lose upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7551) first.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

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USD/CAD stayed in range of 1.2968/3211 last week and outlook remains mixed. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3211 resistance will argue that fall from 1.3598 has completed at 1.2968. And more importantly, rise from 1.2460 is still in progress. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3598 and above. On the downside, below 1.2968 will revive the case that rise from 1.2460 is completed and turn outlook bearish for this low. Overall, choppy rise from 1.2460 is still seen as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we'd look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

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GBP/JPY weakened mildly last week but stayed in range of 138.53/142.79. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are seen as a corrective pattern. Below 138.53 will bring deeper fall, possibly through 136.44 support. But strong support could be seen at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. Above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we'd expect another fall through 116.83 low.

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EUR/JPY's decline from 124.08 extended lower last week and breached 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). The development argues that whole rebound from 109.20 has completed at 124.08 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below. On the upside, though, break of 119.85 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 121.32 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. Current development argues that it's completed at 124.08, ahead of 126.09 key resistance level. Deeper fall would be seen back to 109.20 low. Break there will extend the whole medium term down trend from 149.76 high.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already. Before that, deeper fall is mildly in favor towards 94.11 low.

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EUR/GBP dipped to 0.8402 last week but recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Nonetheless, with 0.8590 resistance intact, we're holding on to our bearish view. That is, fall from 0.8851 is the third leg of the whole corrective pattern from 0.9304. Below 0.8402 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8303 first. Break will confirm our bearish view and target 0.8116 key cluster support level. However, on the upside, break of 0.8590 resistance will dampen our view and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935. Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.

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EUR/AUD dipped to 1.3624 last week and breached 1.3671 key support level. But the cross quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. At this point, we'd still expect strong support from 1.3671 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.6587. This is supported by bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Break of 1.3900 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our view.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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EUR/USD continued to stay in range above 1.0629 last week without any new development. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As 1.0706 resistance stays intact, deeper decline is still expected in the cross. Firm break of 1.0620 key support level will extend the larger decline from 1.1198 to 1.0485 fibonacci level. However, break of 1.0706 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0749 resistance will raise the chance of medium reversal.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

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Next week's market movers

• In the US, all eyes will be on President Trump's address to a joint session of Congress. Markets will be looking for any specifics on tax reform and other policies.
• In Canada, we expect the BoC to take the sidelines amid gradually improving economic data.
• We also get a plethora of key economic data from the US, Australia, the UK, Germany, the Eurozone, Canada, and Japan.

On Monday, in the US, durable goods orders for January are due to be released. The forecast is for the headline rate to have rebounded from previously, while the core figure is expected to have risen for the 5th consecutive month, indicating that despite some softness in civilian aircraft orders, the underlying trend in durable goods continues to be to the upside. The case for solid durable goods orders is supported by the nation's ISM manufacturing PMI for the month, where the new orders sub-index, already at an elevated level, rose for the 5th straight month as well.

On Tuesday, the highlight of the day will be US President Trump's address to a joint session of Congress. Following Trump's recent pledge that he is going to announce a "phenomenal" plan on tax reform within the next weeks, market participants will be on the edge of their seats for any details regarding the new administration's fiscal plans. If he announces proposals that are more or less in line with what he has pledged pre-election, such as reducing corporate tax to 15% - 20%, the USD could gain back some of its lost glamour as the theme of fiscal expansion comes back into play. On the other hand, a percentage markedly higher than the aforementioned could extend the latest slide in the USD triggered by the Fed meeting minutes. Another point of interest for investors, may be any specifics regarding the prospect of a one-time repatriation of corporate cash held abroad at a discounted 10% tax rate, a central theme of the President's campaign. A confirmation of that could help the dollar as well.

As for the US data, we get the 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP. Expectations are for economic growth to have been revised upwards, albeit slightly. This would likely be encouraging news for FOMC policymakers, who in their February policy statement noted that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace. Although continued strength in economic data could revive somewhat market expectations with regards to a March hike, we will stick to our guns that something like that is very unlikely.

On Wednesday, the highlight of the day will the Bank of Canada rate decision. At its latest gathering, the BoC maintained a neutral bias with regards to policy in the meeting statement. However, Governor Poloz was quick to backpedal on that stance in the press conference following the decision. He said that another rate cut remains on the table should downside risks materialize, leading investors to price in a higher probability for further easing. Since that meeting, economic data and developments have been encouraging, on balance. The labor market tightened notably in January and GDP growth rebounded in November, on a monthly basis. What's more, oil prices have remained elevated in the aftermath of the OPEC consensus, while inflation data for February came in on a solid footing. The headline rate surged to 2.1% yoy from 1.5% yoy, while the core rate rose to 1.7% yoy from 1.6% yoy. Perhaps something worrisome for the Bank is that its signals for further easing did not manage to materially weaken the CAD, which has remained strong against most of its major counterparts. Bear in mind that when they last met, BoC officials expressed their discontent about the appreciation of the currency following the US election. Taking all these into account, we expect the Bank to remain sidelined. In such a case, market focus will quickly turn to the statement accompanying the decision, as there is no press conference. Given the progress in economic data, we expect the tone of the statement to remain neutral. However, there is the possibility for another warning about the strength of CAD, considering that the currency has traded sideways against most of its major peers since then.

In Australia, GDP data for Q4 are due to be released, though no forecast is available. Following the unexpected tumble in Q3, we see the case for a rebound in Q4, a view shared by the latest RBA policy statement. We base our expectations on the fact that iron ore prices skyrocketed throughout the quarter, and that retail sales for Q4 also rebounded.

From the UK, we get the manufacturing PMI for February. Then on Thursday, we get the nation's construction PMI for the month and subsequently on Friday, the services index. Considering that economic growth has remained robust in the UK ever since the referendum, we think that investors will monitor these surveys primarily as gauges of how fast inflation is rising and thereby, of whether or not the BoE is likely to tighten its policy in the foreseeable future. Following comments from BoE policymakers on Tuesday, such a scenario appears rather unlikely. Even Ian McCafferty, a notorious hawk among the Committee, signaled that there is "some hope" that interest rates could start to normalize in two or three years. Even though that depends on how inflation evolves over the coming months, the fact that presently there seems to be very little appetite for rate hikes even by the most hawkish MPC members is important in our view.

From Germany, we get the preliminary CPI for February. In January, the yearly CPI rate rose even further to 1.9%, which is in line with the "below, but close to 2%" ECB's inflation target for the bloc. Without any forecast available for February, we see the case for the rate to have risen again and perhaps overshoot 2%. Our view is supported by the nation's composite PMI survey, which showed that prices charged by firms accelerated to a 68-month high in February. Something like that could raise speculation that the bloc's overall CPI, due to be released the following day, may follow suit and accelerate further.

From the US, we get a plethora of economic data. Let's kick off with personal income and spending data, both for January. The forecast is for income to have risen at the same pace as previously, while spending is expected to have slowed, but to have still grown at a healthy rate. We see the risks surrounding the income forecast as skewed to the downside, considering the disappointing average hourly earnings print for the month. At the same time, a slowdown in spending is supported by a similar reaction in January's retail sales.

We also get the ISM manufacturing PMI for February and on Friday, we get the non-manufacturing index for the same month. Both figures are expected to tick down, but to still remain well above the key 50 barrier that separates expansion from contraction. Despite the potential declines, given that these indices are expected to remain at healthy levels, we doubt that they will have a material effect on market pricing regarding the next Fed rate hike.

Finally, we get the core PCE price index for January, though no forecast is available yet. Nonetheless, given that this is the Fed's favorite inflation measure, and that this rate has been range-bound since February 2016, we expect it to attract a lot of attention as investors try to gauge the timing of the next increase in borrowing costs. A potential increase in this rate could spark new hopes with regards to a March hike, as it could confirm that underlying inflationary pressures have begun to accelerate, something already indicated by the acceleration in the core CPI of the same month.

Overall, we maintain our view that the FOMC is unlikely to rush into a March hike amid lackluster wage growth and heightened uncertainty around fiscal policy, which in our view is supported by the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Our model which is based on the yields of the Fed funds futures now shows a 28% probability for a March hike, but we see even that number as somewhat optimistic if we take into account that the Committee has turned more dovish this year through the rotation of voting rights. Therefore, we still expect the next rate hike to come in June. Alongside a potential uptick in the core PCE price index rate, we would like to see some acceleration in wage growth and some clarity around fiscal reform, before we reconsider this view.

On Thursday, we get Eurozone's preliminary CPI data for February, though no forecast is available. Our own view is that the headline rate may have risen further, but we remain mindful on whether the core rate will follow suit. The bloc's composite PMI survey for February showed that the rate of inflation in the euro area was the steepest since July 2011, supporting our view for a higher headline CPI rate. However, the report also found that part of the progress was owed to higher commodity prices, something that may be filtered out of the core CPI. ECB President Draghi placed a lot of emphasis on the core rate at the latest policy gathering. He said that although the headline rate has risen, that reflects primarily transitory effects. He made it clear that until there are convincing signs of an upward trend in core inflation, the Bank is likely to keep its dovish policy stance unchanged. Given these signals, we expect the core CPI to be closely watched, as a noticeable upturn in this rate in coming months is needed to fuel market speculation regarding the prospect of "ECB tapering" in the foreseeable future.

From Canada, we get GDP data for Q4. In the absence of a forecast, we see the case for GDP growth to have accelerated from the previous quarter. Retail sales were stronger in Q4 than Q3, oil prices were elevated for most of Q4, prior and following the OPEC consensus, and the nation's exports rose markedly following a soft Q3. Considering that when it last met, the BoC noted that another rate cut remains on the table, we believe that accelerating GDP growth is likely to diminish somewhat the likelihood for further easing by the Bank.

As we noted above, we also get the UK construction PMI for February.

On Friday, during the Asian morning, we get Japan's CPI data for January. In the absence of any forecast, we see the case for both the headline and the core rates to have risen. We base our view on the nation's forward-looking Tokyo headline and core CPI rates for January, both of which rose. Nevertheless, we doubt that any modest increase in these rates will lead to a material shift in BoJ policy away from QQE with yield-curve control. We think that the BoJ is likely to be happy to keep its ultra-loose policy intact for a while, amid gradually improving economic data overall and a considerably weaker yen following the US election.

From the UK we get the services PMI for February, and from the US, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for the same month, both of which we already described.