Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8546; (P) 0.8564; (R1) 0.8599; More...

Immediate focus is now on 0.8577 resistance in EUR/GBP with current rebound. Decisive break there will argue that fall from 0.8764 has completed and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8491/7 support zone will resume larger down trend from 0.9267 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8764 is seen as another leg in the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8713 resistance holds. Break of 0.8491 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8491 from 0.8764 at 0.8464.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6468; (P) 1.6539; (R1) 1.6599; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as range trading continues. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6677 will target 1.6742 first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.6127 and target 1.6844 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9678; (P) 0.9733; (R1) 0.9803; More..

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9773 will extend the rise from 0.9252 to 1.0095 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9664 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 0.9683 resistance indicates medium term bottoming at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9530) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3477; (P) 1.3510; (R1) 1.3563; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as range trading continues inside 1.3419/3612. On the upside, break of 1.3612 will confirm resumption of the rebound from 1.3176. On the downside, firm break of 1.3419 support will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.3357 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6542; (P) 0.6589; (R1) 0.6616; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first as range trading continues inside 0.6503/6666. On the downside, break of 0.6503 will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. On the upside, break of 0.6666 will resume the rise from 0.6442 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6870 to 0.64420 at 0.6707.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.69; (P) 151.22; (R1) 152.18; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 151.82 temporary top might extend. But further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.91) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 146.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8878; (P) 0.8936; (R1) 0.9033; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 0.8332 is in progress for 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062. On the downside, below 0.8922 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8728 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8555 support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0830; (P) 1.0886; (R1) 1.0917; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the downside with current steep fall and break of 1.0834 support. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0861) will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0941 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2605; (P) 1.2704; (R1) 1.2757; More...

GBP/USD's steep decline and break of 1.2666 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.2892. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2517 structural support next. Decisive break there will indicate larger bearish reversal. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.2802 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Dollar mounted a significant comeback overnight, demonstrating resilience amidst surge in risk-on sentiment that propelled the three major US stock indexes to record highs. The greenback continued to extend gains in Asian session, surpassing pre-FOMC highs against European majors.

The shift in sentiment came in wake of SNB's unexpected rate cut yesterday and dovish voting pattern from BoE. These events could have led investors to realize that  there are realistic risks that Fed could start cutting interest rates later other major counterparts like ECB.

Currently, Dollar stands as the week's strongest currency, outperforming trailed by Canadian Dollar and Euro. On the other end of the spectrum, Swiss Franc languishes as the week's weakest performer, with Japanese Yen not faring much better. New Zealand Dollar and British Pound are also under pressure, whereas Australian Dollar occupies a neutral position within the currency mix.

Technically, focus is back on 0.6503 support in AUD/USD with current steep decline. Firm break there will revive that case that corrective rise from 0.6442 has completed at 0.6666. Larger fall from 0.6870 should then be ready to resume through 0.6442 low.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.22%. Hong Kong HSI is down -3.04%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.41%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.29%. Overnight, DOW rose 0.68%. S&P 500 rose 0.32%. NASDAQ rose 0.20%. 10-year yield fell -0.002 to 4.271.

Japan CPI core rises to 2.8% in Feb, above BoJ's target for 23rd month

Japan's CPI core (ex-fresh food) rises from 2.0% yoy to 2.8% yoy in February, matched expectations. This increase marks the first acceleration in four months and maintains the index above BoJ's 2% target for the 23rd consecutive month.

The uptick in the core CPI was primarily due to a less pronounced decline in energy prices, reflecting diminishing impact of government subsidies introduced to mitigate energy costs. Specifically, energy prices saw a decrease of -1.7% yoy, a significant moderation from -12.1% yoy drop recorded in January.

The overall headline CPI also showed an uptick, accelerating from 2.2% yoy to 2.8%yoy. However, when examining CPI core-core, which excludes both food and energy, there was a slight slowdown from 3.5% yoy to 3.2% yoy.

New Zealand's goods exports rises 16% yoy in Feb, imports up 3.3% yoy

In February, New Zealand's goods exports leaped by 16% yoy to NZD 5.9B. This surge contrasts with a more modest 3.3% yoy increase in goods imports, totaling NZD 6.1B. Consequently, monthly trade deficit narrowed significantly to NZD -218m, far exceeding market expectations of a shortfall of NZD -825m.

Exports to China, New Zealand's largest trading partner, increased by 10% yoy, contributing an additional NZD 154m. US saw a remarkable 52% yoy jump in exports, adding NZD 305m, while EU and Australia also recorded increases in New Zealand exports by 7.9% yoy and 5.9% yoy, respectively. However, trade with Japan contracted, with exports declining by -10% yoy.

On the import front, China and South Korea marked significant increases of 7.1% yoy and 42% yoy, respectively, indicating robust demand for goods from these economies. Conversely, imports from US and EU saw downturns, declining by 20% yoy and 7% yoy.

Looking ahead

Uk retail sales and German Ifo busienss climate are the main focuses in European session. Later in the day, Canada will release retail sales.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2605; (P) 1.2704; (R1) 1.2757; More...

GBP/USD's steep decline and break of 1.2666 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.2892. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2517 structural support next. Decisive break there will indicate larger bearish reversal. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.2802 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Economic Indicators Update