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New Zealand’s CPI held steady at 3.1% yoy in Q1, above expectations of 2.9% and marking the highest level since Q2 2024, keeping it above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band for a second straight quarter. On a quarterly basis, CPI rose 0.9% qoq, slightly above forecasts, suggesting underlying pressures remain persistent despite expectations for easing earlier in the year.

The breakdown highlights a clear divergence between external and domestic inflation. Tradable inflation edged lower from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy, reflecting softer imported price pressures. In contrast, non-tradable inflation held firm at 3.5% yoy, with a 1.1% quarterly increase.

Energy played a key role in the latest pickup. Petrol prices rose 3.5% in the quarter, reversing earlier declines in January and February, while electricity prices surged 12.5% yoy, remaining the largest contributor to annual inflation for a third consecutive quarter. Even excluding petrol, CPI still rose 0.8% qoq, indicating that inflation pressures are not solely driven by energy.

For the RBNZ, the signal is uncomfortable. While core CPI remains relatively contained at 0.5% qoq and 2.6% yoy, the persistence in non-tradables and the continued influence of energy costs point to upside risks. With inflation still above target and domestic pressures holding firm, expectations for a July rate hike are likely to strengthen, particularly if second-round effects begin to emerge in coming months.

Full NZ CPI release here.

New Zealand business confidence deteriorated sharply in the March quarter, with the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showing the general business situation dropping from +39 to +1. The survey highlights how the US–Israel conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have quickly eroded sentiment despite earlier signs of recovery.

Domestic activity held up better than sentiment suggests. Firms reported trading activity over the past three months improving from -3 to 0, indicating stabilization in near-term demand. However, forward-looking indicators softened, with expected trading activity falling from +22 to +13, pointing to growing caution as external risks intensify.

At the same time, pricing pressures picked up notably. Average selling prices over the past three months rose from +13 to +22, while expectations for the next three months surged from +25 to +43. This suggests that while demand conditions are fragile, firms are still passing through higher costs, particularly from energy and supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict.

For policy, the signal is mixed but important. NZIER sees only "modest" risk of persistently high inflation, but emphasizes elevated uncertainty around energy prices and supply chains. The RBNZ is still expected to begin tightening with a 25 basis-point hike in July, with forward-looking inflation indicators likely to determine the timing.

Full NZIER QSBO release here.

NZ consumer prices were up 0.9% in Q1, with annual inflation unchanged at 3.1% The result was stronger than expected with firm underlying inflation.

Consumers Price Index, March quarter 2026

Headline inflation

• Quarterly change: +0.9% (prev: +0.6%)
• Westpac forecast: +0.7%
• Market median: +0.8%, range +0.7% to. +1.1%
• Annual change: +3.1% (prev: +3.1%)
• Westpac forecast: +2.8%, RBNZ: +3.0%, Market: +2.9%

Non-tradables

• Quarterly change: +1.1% (prev: +0.6%)
• Westpac forecast: +0.8%
• Annual change: +3.5% (prev: +3.5%)

Tradables

• Quarterly change: +0.7% (prev: +0.7%)
• Westpac forecast: +0.2%
• Annual change: +2.5% (prev: +2.6%)

Consumer prices rose 0.9% in the March quarter. That saw the annual inflation rate remaining unchanged at 3.1%.

The March quarter inflation result was above the 0.7% rise we were expecting, with surprises spread across tradable and non-tradable categories.

The result was also above the RBNZ’s updated forecast from their April policy update for 3% annual inflation.

Importantly, many measures of core inflation have continued to run at levels close to or above the top of the target band. For the RBNZ, that highlights the firm starting point for inflation even before the recent oil price shock.

What contributed to inflation in the March quarter?

Underpinning the March quarter rise in consumer prices were large increases in some specific areas.

• Food prices were up 1.5% over the quarter, underpinned by the usual seasonal increases in the price of fruit, as well as higher prices for confectionary (especially chocolates).
• Unsurprisingly, the other big category that has boosted inflation this quarter were transport costs. The sharp rise in oil prices over the past few weeks has left petrol prices up 3.5% over the quarter, with diesel prices up 11%. Notably, we also saw the early stages of spillovers from high fuel prices into other costs, with domestic airfares up 9% over the quarter.
• In addition to those factors, the March quarter also saw continued increases in electricity charges and the annual increase in the tobacco excise tax. There has also been a big rise in vehicle registration costs and health care costs (the later related to the annual roll-over in the subscription subsidy).

On the downside, we saw a fall in overseas holiday accommodation costs (-4%) and international airfares (-7%). Both of those declines are seasonal, and in the case of international airfares, we are likely to see large increases over the coming months.

On the housing front, rents were flat over the quarter. That was the weakest result since 2001. It’s particularly notable as the start of the year typically sees many rental agreements rolling over and larger increases in rents. This softness comes against a backdrop of low population growth and increases in housing supply, with particularly weak growth in areas like Wellington. We expect housing rental growth will remain muted for some time.

The March quarter also saw a modest 0.5% rise in the cost of a newly built home. Construction cost inflation has been muted for some time. However, there is growing pressure on materials costs, and that’s likely to flow through to larger increases in building costs later in the year.

Annual and core inflation

The annual inflation rate was unchanged at 3.1% in the year to March.

Looking under the surface, prices in the domestically oriented non-tradables group rose 1.1% over the quarter (above expectations). That saw annual non-tradables inflation remaining unchanged at 3.5%.

Non-tradables inflation has been lingering above historic averages. In part, that’s due to the continued large increases in administered prices, like electricity charges which rose 12.5% over the past year. However, prices in other areas have also been firm. Non-tradables excluding housing and utilities costs (which also omits rates) was 3.5% for the year (up from 3.4% at the end of last year). In seasonally adjusted terms, quarterly non-tradables inflation has been running at a rate 0.9% for most of the past year.

Tradables inflation was also hotter than expected in the March quarter (+0.7 qtr, +2.5% yr), with increases seen across a range of discretionary spending categories. That saw annual tradables inflation excluding food and fuel rising to 1.8% (up from 1.7% at the end of last year and the highest it's been since September 2023).

And over the coming quarters, tradable price inflation is set to accelerate sharply. As well as increase global fuel and transport charges, supply chain disruptions are already pushing up the prices for many imported goods.

While the past quarter did see large moves in a few specific areas like food and fuel prices, these aren’t the only areas where we’ve seen firmness in inflation. Despite dropping back over the past year, key measures of core inflation remain in the upper part of the RBNZ’s target band, and several have taken a step higher. (Note: core inflation measures smooth through the quarter-to-quarter swings in inflation and track the underlying trend in prices).

In terms of specifics:

• CPI ex-fuel inflation: +3.2% yr (vs +3.2% previously)
• CPI ex-fuel and food: +3.0% yr (vs +2.9% previously)
• 30% trimmed mean: +2.3%yr (vs +2.5% previously)
• Weighted median +1.6%yr (vs 1.7% previously)

That resilience in core inflation will be important for the RBNZ, highlighting the firm starting point for inflation even before the recent oil price shock

Outlook

This quarter’s result was really just the curtain raiser. Both we and the RBNZ now expect inflation will rise to over 4% in the June quarter. We’ve recently updated our forecasts and had assumed annual inflation would peak at 4.3% in the June quarter, before dropping back to 3.9% by the end of this year. Today's result suggests upside risk to those forecasts

The middle part of the year will see the full brunt of the recent rise in oil prices, as well as related increases in transport and other costs. There will also be a big focus the various survey gauges of forward cost and pricing pressures over the next few months, which will be closely watch for signs of a more enduring lift in inflation.

Business confidence fell sharply after the Iran conflict, with the gloom deepening over the course of March.

Key results (seasonally adjusted)

• General business situation: +1 (Prev: +39)
• Trading activity, past three months: 0 (Prev: -3)
• Trading activity, next three months: +13 (Prev: +22)
• Average selling prices, past three months: +22 (Prev: +13)
• Average selling prices, next three months: +43 (Prev: +25)

Business confidence has unsurprisingly taken a knock since the Iran war kicked off at the end of February. Indeed, given the fast-moving situation, the headline results of the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion understate the degree of the shock. Firms noted ongoing cost pressures, and a growing number of them are intending to raise their prices, but their ability to do so remains mixed. Overall, today’s survey probably underscores rather than deepens the dilemma that the RBNZ will be facing in the coming months.

Sentiment about the general business situation fell from +39 to +1, the lowest reading since September 2024 – and that doesn’t come close to telling the full story. Surveying began on 6 March, and the initial batch of responses was a net 34% positive. After the first reminder in mid-March, the next batch was a net 7% negative, and the last batch at the end of March was a whopping net 57% negative. NZIER didn’t provide this breakdown for the other survey questions, but we can reasonably assume that there was a similar deterioration over the course of the month.

The own-activity measure for the last quarter actually picked up a little compared to the December survey, emphasising that the economy was regaining some momentum before the Iran war. Expectations for the next quarter fell from +22 to +13, though again the picture is likely to have looked significantly worse by the end of the survey period.

A net 37% of firms reported a rise in their costs, unchanged from last quarter. Expected costs for the next quarter were a net 45%, up from 39% in December – not a big increase, but this measure was already at elevated levels.

A net 22% of firms increased their prices last quarter, compared to 13% in December. More notably, a net 43% plan to raise their prices in the next quarter, the highest reading since September 2023. Firms’ ability to raise their prices remained mixed across sectors though: for instance, builders reported a sharp rise in costs but a net 25% lowered their own prices last quarter.

Employment was down a net 5% past quarter, after a brief pickup in December, and hiring intentions also turned negative again. That said, there is evidence of labour shortages emerging again for skilled roles, though not for unskilled ones.

• Silver, Gold and other metals are struggling to pick-up momentum despite lower Oil prices.
• The Ceasefire is set to expire soon, and both sides seem more reluctant to extend it without a deal.
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD.

After rebounding sporadically over the past two weeks, Gold and other precious commodities have failed to match the broadly positive, euphoric mood currently driving equity markets.

While they initially profited from the first corrective wave in the US Dollar, capital flows have aggressively pivoted toward risk-on assets.

Traditional safe havens, which arguably lost their clear directional sight during the height of the war's panic, are now heavily questioning their role in this new environment—and investors are doing exactly the same.

The geopolitical clock is ticking. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is officially set to expire by Wednesday, April 22, and both sides appear increasingly reluctant to extend the truce without a finalized, signed agreement in place.

The US Administration is eager for a peaceful resolution but the President communicated that he is also ready to use strength.

Despite Crude Oil dropping back to the $90 handle, metals are struggling to pick up any meaningful bullish momentum while in this tense waiting room.

Should the ceasefire unexpectedly collapse without a diplomatic resolution, precious metals could face a violent, binary reaction.

If WTI Oil manages to remain contained below the critical $100 mark, Gold could absolutely explode higher on a sudden rush of risk-off haven flows, capitalizing on its recent technical correction, and a lack of worsening inflation expectations.

Conversely, more risk-sensitive, industrial-leaning metals like Silver and Copper would likely struggle to catch a sustained bid, facing heavy downward pressure precisely because they are hovering near their current relative highs.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold has rallied a quite impressive 17% after reaching 4-month lows on March 22, but has failed to breach the quintessential $4,900 resistance.

For bulls to retake the intermediate momentum advantage, they will have to generate a proper push above the psychological level – that could potentially happen if sentiment sours further.

In the immediate outlook however, the 4H 200-period MA is putting bearish pressure, hence if nothing fundamental changes, sellers would have the short-term advantage.

A break below the $4,781 50 MA confirms a turn lower and would push back towards $4,650.

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $4,800 4H 200-period MA
• $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• $4,781 50-MA short-term support
• Daily Momentum Pivot $4,675 (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver has also rallied strongly from its March 22 lows but is now struggling to extend above the $83 resistance.

Still evolving within a bull channel, traders will have to track its upper ($84.50) and lower bounds ($77) to play breakouts.

If the situation remains confusing as it currently is, expect the channel to consolidate into a range between $77 and $83.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 (Mid-term bullish above)
• Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• Key Momentum Pivot $75 to $79
• 4H 50 and 200-period MAs ($77)
• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades and a successful week!

• Bitcoin has reclaimed the $76000 handle and maintains a firmly bullish technical structure.
• The $75000 psychological level is acting as a consistent pivot, suggesting sustained institutional interest.
• If buying pressure persists, the primary short-term goal is a run toward the psychological $80000 level, with the ultimate bullish hurdle being $82133.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has displayed impressive resilience during the Monday session, shaking off early-morning sluggishness to reclaim the $76000 handle. After a brief period of consolidation, the premier cryptocurrency looks poised to challenge its recent highs, underpinned by a technical structure that continues to favor the "buy the dip" crowd.

Daily Chart: Holding the MA High Ground

The daily timeframe remains the cornerstone of the current bullish thesis. Following the impulsive "V-shaped" recovery throughout early April, Bitcoin has successfully turned previous resistance into rock-solid support.

Key observations on the Daily:

• The SMA Support Sandwich: Bitcoin is currently trading comfortably above its 100-day MA (yellow) at $74145 and its 50-day MA (blue) at $70577.

As long as the pair remains above this "support sandwich," the broader bias remains firmly bullish.

• The $75000 Pivot: The daily candles are showing a consistent ability to close above the $75000 psychological level, suggesting that institutional interest is picking up at these elevated levels.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is trending at 61, indicating that while momentum is positive, we are still a long way from the "danger zone" of 70+, leaving significant room for a run toward the $82133 hurdle.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 20, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H4 Chart: The Bullish Base at $74000

Zooming into the H4 chart, we can see a textbook example of healthy trend development. After hitting a local top near $78197, the pair underwent an orderly retracement that found a floor exactly at the 50-period MA (blue), currently at $74632.

The H4 structure has now printed a significant higher low. With the RSI bouncing off its midpoint (58) after a "PIVOT" low signal, the indicators suggest that the corrective phase is over, and the next impulsive leg may be beginning to take shape.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Intraday Outlook

The hourly chart provides the most immediate optimism, with Bitcoin slicing back above its 50, 100, and 200-period MAs in a single concerted move.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to maintain this momentum into the Asian and European sessions, we need to see a sustained hold above the $75700 area (the H1 100-MA). A clean break above $76800 would likely trigger a liquidation of short positions, clearing the path for a retest of $78197. If buying pressure persists, a psychological run toward $80000 becomes the primary target.

The Bearish Scenario

The bears need a rejection at current levels and a break back below the $75000 pivot to regain any short-term control. Failure to hold the $74555 level (H1 200-MA) would signal a more prolonged consolidation, likely drawing the price back toward the structural support at $71673.

However, given the current "BULL" labels on the RSI, the bears seem to be on the back foot for now.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $78197, $80000, $82133
• Support: $75000, $74145 (Daily 100-MA), $71673

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Bitcoin is effectively "re-loading" for its next major move. The confluence of support between $74,000 and $75,000 has proven to be a formidable base for the bulls. WIll it serve as a base for Bitcoin to finally push beyond the coveted $80000 mark?

• The ECB says it is still too early to fully assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the euro area, so policymakers should closely watch incoming data and avoid rushing into decisions.
• The war creates a classic supply shock: it raises energy and commodity prices, increases inflation risks, and at the same time threatens already weak euro area growth, especially through potential disruptions such as a Strait of Hormuz blockade.
• The ECB’s main concern is whether higher energy costs will trigger longer-lasting “second-round effects” across the economy; if inflation expectations rise and price pressures become persistent, the central bank may have to respond.

The European Central Bank is still unable to clearly assess how strong the full impact of the war with Iran will be on the euro area economy. As Álvaro Santos Pereira, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, emphasizes, the conflict is too recent to draw firm conclusions, so for now the central bank should closely monitor incoming data and refrain from hasty reactions.

Too early for a full assessment of the conflict’s effects

According to Pereira, the current situation requires caution because this is a classic supply shock. Such shocks usually lead at the same time to weaker economic growth and higher inflation, putting the central bank in a particularly difficult position. On the one hand, energy and commodity prices are rising; on the other, economic activity is weakening. For the euro area, this means worsening conditions, although at this stage the negative impact of the conflict is not yet seen as dramatic.

A supply shock puts the ECB in a difficult position

Pereira notes that the euro area economy is currently somewhere between the ECB’s baseline scenario and the adverse scenario it had considered. Even before the current crisis, economic growth in the euro area had been running at around 1%, which in itself pointed to limited recovery momentum. In this situation, any additional external shock, especially one related to the energy market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increases the risk of a further weakening in economic conditions.

ECB inflation and growth forecast, source: Bloomberg

The ECB is paying particularly close attention to developments surrounding the fighting in the Middle East and the potential consequences for Europe of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This channel could be of key importance for oil prices, transport costs, and more broadly for cost pressures in the economy. For the central bank, however, the most important issue will not be the temporary rise in prices itself, but the possibility of so-called second-round effects. This refers to a situation in which higher energy and commodity prices begin to spread into other sectors of the economy, pushing inflation higher in a more lasting way.

The biggest risk is entrenched inflationary pressure

In Pereira’s view, only clear signs that higher inflation is becoming entrenched, along with rising inflation expectations, should prompt the ECB to react. If such signals appear in the data, the central bank will have to respond. If, however, price pressure proves limited and temporary, it will be more appropriate to continue observing the situation and make decisions with great caution. This is particularly important at a time when less than two weeks remained before the ECB’s next interest-rate decision.

Euro Area Inflation Rate, source: TradingEconomics

Europe needs not only caution, but also reforms

In the Governing Council member’s opinion, short-term caution in monetary policy should not obscure the broader picture. Pereira points out that for more lasting growth, Europe also needs structural measures, above all faster completion of the single market. Deeper economic integration could increase Europe’s resilience to external shocks and improve its long-term growth prospects.

For now, the ECB therefore remains in a mode of vigilant observation. The conflict with Iran is already worsening economic conditions in the euro area, but the scale of its impact has not yet been determined. The coming weeks and incoming data will show whether this is a temporary disruption or the start of stronger and more persistent inflationary pressure that would force the central bank to respond.

WTI oil opened $5 higher and gained over 6% at the start of the week, as “Trump Indicator” (one of key fundamental market drivers nowadays) changed direction during the weekend on fresh tensions over Strait of Hormuz, which was opened on Friday and closed again shortly after.

Today’s price jump partially offset optimism, sparked by Friday’s price drop of about 10% that hit the lowest since early March.

Although the overall picture has been darkened by the latest developments that raise fears of fresh escalation (that may have strong negative impact, not only on the region, but the global economy) technical picture on daily chart is expected to remain bearishly aligned while the price stays below $90 barrier (which caps upticks for the fourth consecutive session).

Negative momentum studies and the action weighed by two consecutive large bearish weekly candles, contribute to such scenario, but situation on the battlefield (extended ceasefire and peace talks or fresh escalation) is likely to have a key impact on crude oils’ price direction.

Repeated daily close below $90 to maintain slight bearish bias and risk retest of 55DMA ($82.63) guarding more significant $80/$79 zone, break of which to confirm signal of bearish continuation.

On the other hand, sustained break above $90 would provide relief, but extension above $94 will be needed to confirm the signal.

Res: 90.00; 91.80; 92.46; 93.71
Sup: 84.50; 82.63; 80.00; 79.00

Markets

After the unjustified optimism on an ‘orderly’ end to the conflict between the US and Iran going into the weekend, markets at the start of the new week are facing again a lack of visibility on the next steps in the conflict. This a fortiori applies to the conditions and the nature of any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Economic analysts in this context also have to resort to guesstimates on the timing of any repair of energy and other supply chain disruptions that will determine the economic fall-out on the world economy. The end of a two-week ceasefire Tuesday evening is the next high profile deadline. New talks are expected to take place ahead of this deadline in Pakistan. However, Iran reclaiming an earlier promise to open de Strait of Hormuz and the US maintaining the blockade of Iran ports and seizing an Iranian ship illustrate the division/distrust between the parties involved. Markets today show the logic Pavol reaction that can be expected in case of such a U-turn in sentiment. Brent oil, still the most symbolic pointer on potential economic disruption due to the conflict, hovers near $95/b to be compared with levels below $90 at some point on Friday. Despite the substantial repositioning compared to Friday, intraday volatility remained rather low. Is this again some kind of agnosticism on yet another U-turn in the scenario of the conflict?. Or is it markets holding some complacency/hope that the bar for both sides to return to outright military hostilities has become high? Time will tell. European equites return part of Friday’s gain (Eurostoxx 50 -1% after a 2%+ gain on Friday). US indices open with losses of about 0.25%/0.5%. It’s all about assessing difficult to measure political probabilities, but also here, the damage/disappointment could have been more outspoken. Yields in the US and European opened higher, but momentum dwindled as the session continued. Markets are holding to the view that most central banks will take their time to assess the economic impact (both on inflation and growth) before adapting policy when deemed necessary later. Next week’s policy meetings of the Fed, the ECB and the BoE in this respect are seen as coming too already to trigger any preemptive action, especially with oil prices holding below $100/b. US yields today add between 0.5 bps (30-y) and 1.5. bps (2-y). EMU swap yields are rising between 4 bps (2-y) and 1.5 bps (30-y), only a fraction of Friday’s decline. On FX markets, the dollar failed to extend/hold gains at the open this morning. DXY trades near 98.2, with any bottoming out process still lacking any convincing follow-through price action. EUR/USD after an early session dip trades little changed near 1.1765. USD/JPY gains modestly (158.7), with underlying yen softness still keep the pair within reach of the 160 barrier. The US currency apparently ‘needs’ higher risk-aversion and/or higher oil prices to really regain momentum.

News & Views

Canadian inflation accelerated from 0.5% M/M to 0.9% in March with the annual number jumping from 1.8% to 2.4%. Markets feared an even bigger rise (1.1% M/M & 2.6%). Details showed gasoline prices rising by a record 21.2% M/M and oil prices by 2.6% M/M. Core inflation (ex-food and energy) rose a modest 0.1% M/M & 1.9% Y/Y, also printing below consensus (2.2% Y/Y). The Bank of Canada’s preferred trimmed mean slowed from 2.3% Y/Y to 2.2% Y/Y. There remained lingering base-year effects from the GST/HST break which ran from December 2024 to February 2025, resulting in downward pressure on headline inflation in March 2026. The Canadian central bank is expected to hold policy unchanged when it meets next week. Governor Macklem last week indicated that his main concern is longer-term inflation expectations. He sounded vigilant in not allowing the energy shock to spread.

Slovenia PM Golob admitted that his party was unable to form a government. Golob’s liberal party won last month’s national election by a razor-thin margin. The Freedom Movement won 29 out of 90 seats, beating outgoing PM Jansa’s (Orban ally, Trump adept, Russian sympathy) populist party which secured 28 seats. Jansa might now seek a return to office by setting up a centre-right coalition. He earlier indicated all options were comfortable for his party, forming a government, remaining in the opposition (ruled out now) or participating in new elections.