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Market Overview

The crypto market cap on Monday morning is $2.31 trillion, just over 1% higher than a week ago. Volatility in cryptocurrencies decreased significantly in the second half of the week, unlike in traditional financial markets. Cryptocurrencies did not emerge as a safe haven; instead, they found only a temporary balance between opposing forces. Last week, crypto failed to maintain its mid-week momentum. They are also avoiding a collapse following traditional markets, which began trading on Monday. This is too fragile a balance, and we see a greater risk of increased cryptocurrency sell-offs as institutional players are forced to reduce leverage amid the decline of key assets.

The sentiment index stood at 8 on Monday, returning to single digits after twelve days of attempts to stabilise and form a rebound. This behaviour proves once again that not all extremely low sentiment values should be considered a good entry point.

Bitcoin is trading at $67K, around which it has been for more than 4 weeks. On intraday intervals, purchases are still noticeable on dips below $66K. Still, it is difficult to rely on this support given the powerful movements in financial markets.

News Background

Bitcoin is in the deepest phase of a bear market, and the situation could worsen, according to ZX Squared Capital, which expects BTC to fall further by 30% in 2026 due to the war with Iran.

Culper Research has opened short positions on Ethereum and BitMine shares. Analysts believe that the altcoin’s economy has deteriorated following the recent Fusaka update.

For the first time in US history, the Trump administration has included cryptocurrencies and blockchain in the National Cybersecurity Strategy, which explicitly states the need to protect these technologies at the state level.

Florida has passed the first state-level stablecoin bill in the US. Governor Ron DeSantis will sign the document within the next 30 days.

The US SEC has dropped charges against Justin Sun. The founder of Tron agreed to pay a $10 million fine but did not admit guilt. In 2023, the SEC accused Sun of unregistered sales of securities in the form of Tron and BitTorrent cryptocurrencies, as well as fraudulent price manipulation.

About 38% of altcoins have approached historic lows. The situation in the sector is worse than after the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange, notes analyst Darkfost.

Another shocking Monday for the energy market. Last week’s start was remembered for a bullish gap of more than 10% (which was later followed by a pullback), but today’s market open proved even more volatile (as reflected by the ATR indicator). After a bullish gap of roughly 11%, the price continued to climb, reaching a peak of around $114 per barrel of WTI during the Asian session. This is the highest price since 2022.

The drivers of the rally are obvious – the escalation of the war in the Middle East, with more countries becoming involved. Risks have reached a critical point, with discussions emerging around the scenario of a complete blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In such a case, oil-producing countries could invoke force majeure as grounds for halting supplies.

Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart

Analysing the oil price chart a week ago, we assumed that the $70 level would act as support. Indeed, the market remained above this psychological level, while rising highs and lows reflected traders’ concerns.

Extreme volatility must be taken into account when applying classical technical patterns. Today, the oil price chart allows us to draw a broad ascending channel with a steep slope. In this context, it is worth noting (as indicated by the arrows):

• → the rapid rise in oil prices within the upper quarter of the channel;
• → the subsequent reversal and a swift decline towards the median.

This price action (essentially resembling a Bearish Engulfing pattern) points to a sharp shift in sentiment.

From the bulls’ perspective → the median of the wide channel, reinforced by the psychological $100 level, may act as support.

However, judging by the extremely wide candle, during which the XTI/USD quote dropped from $111 to $100 today, it is reasonable to assume that the initiative currently lies with the bears. And even if a rebound from the median occurs, it may fade near the $105 level (which has already acted as resistance on lower timeframes).

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AUD/USD failed to stay in a positive zone and declined below 0.7000. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5850.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above 0.7100 against the US Dollar.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7020 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from 0.6000 and traded below 0.5900.
•  There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5900 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear 0.7150. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below 0.7050 against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.7000 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6980. A low was formed at 0.6956, and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7089 swing high to the 0.6956 low.

On the upside, immediate hurdle is near the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7020. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7020.

The next major level for the bears could be 7060. The main selling point could be 0.7090, above which the price could rise toward 0.7140. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.7200. A close above 0.7200 could start another steady increase in the near term. In the stated case, the next key resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.7280.

On the downside, initial support is near 0.6975. The next area of interest might be 0.6955. If there is a downside break below 0.6955, the pair could extend its decline. The next target for the bears might be 0.6920. Any more losses might send the pair toward 0.6900.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6000 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.5950 against the US Dollar.

The pair settled below 0.5900 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested 0.5850 and is currently consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5948 swing high to the 0.5848 low.

If the pair recovers, it could face hurdles near 0.5900 and a key bearish trend line. The next major barrier is at 0.5910 since it coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement.

If there is a move above 0.5910, the pair could rise toward 0.5950. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 0.6010 in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is 0.5850.

The next major stop for the bears might be 0.5835. If there is a downside break below 0.5835, the pair could extend its decline toward 0.5800. The main target for the bears could be 0.5740.

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• WTI crude oil posts a bullish gap, reaching its highest levels since July 2022.
• Iran-related tensions fuel upward pressure, but rally could be short-lived.
• Momentum indicators mirror the surge, extending into overbought territory.

WTI crude oil surged more than 30% on Monday, reaching its highest levels since mid‑2022, as the deepening conflict in the Middle East intensified supply‑disruption fears, further amplified by the appointment of Iran’s new supreme leader. The rally pushed prices just shy of the 120.00 level before easing lower toward the 102.00 area.

If the pullback extends, as the price action currently continues to retreat from the intraday spike, a sustained break below the 200% Fibonacci level at 103.97 and a stabilization near the 102.00 area would expose the next support at 94.63, followed by 92.80, which marks an over two‑and‑a‑half‑year high. Below that, additional support is located in the 88.87-85.30 region.

That said, the technical indicators reinforce the strong bullish momentum, with the RSI pushing deep into overbought territory, and the MACD continuing to overextend above zero and its red signal line.

Thus, if the accelerated buying persists above the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-December 2025 downleg at 119.58, the price could retest resistance at the June 2023 highs near 123.70, followed by the March peaks in the 127.00-130.00 zone.

Overall, WTI crude oil has extended a six‑day rally to climb toward nearly four‑year highs. However, with price action now paring gains and volatility triggering aggressive swings between 98.00 and 120.00, the advance may pause, potentially allowing for a retracement toward the 90.00 region before the broader uptrend resumes.

Markets

Unexpected weak US payrolls on Friday brought a temporary interruption from the war-related, inflationary narrative. Contrary to mostly solid US data of late (e.g. ISMs), the US economy in February shed 92k jobs. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%. Wage growth (AHE) rose slightly more than expected (0.4% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y). Some specific issues might have been in play (strikes, weather related topics). Even so, the outcome questions recent cautiously growing optimism on the US job market, which also became apparent in comments from at least from some Fed members. Whatever the assessment, the outcome helped to (temporarily) balance the energy price driven rise in US yields. US yields closed little changed (<2 bps across the curve). Any mitigating impact on EMU (or e.g. UK yields) understandably was far less, as at the same time the oil price (Brent) was closing in on $90+ p/b. The yield curve further bear flattened with the 2-y adding 7 bps, the 10-y rising 1.9 bps while the 30-y eased slightly (-0.8 bps). In the meantime, headlines on several key production facilities in the Gulf shutting down production (oil and gas production) continued to roll in. The combination of war-rated inflation fears and weak US payrolls evidently didn’t help equities. US indices lost between 0.94% (Dow) and 1.59% (Nasdaq). The recent ‘strong dollar bid’ temporarily receded. DYX closed slightly lower near 99. EUR/USD avoided a close below 1.16 (close 1.1618). Interestingly, sterling both outperformed the euro (close EUR/GBP 0.8663) and the dollar (cable close 1.3413).

This morning, all eyes remain on the conflict in the Middle East. There are few signs pointing to any de-escalation. Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, the sone of the previous Ayatollah, as the new supreme leader. US comments suggest they intend further action to reach their objectives, including seizing the Iran’s uranium. Oil this morning briefly spiked to only a whisker away from the $120 p/b level (Brent). In very volatile trading, oil currently eases slightly off those peak levels, but developments suggest that recent (stagflationary) dynamics with energy prices in focus might continue dominating trading. Asian equities are declining sharply (Nikkei -5.2%). US and European equity futures are also deeply in red. Short-term (EMU yields) again open sharply higher (2-y swap + 15 bps). US yields add 4-5 bps across the curve. Question is how fast money markets will price in the necessity for ECB action if the oil-price/inflation uptick persists. Everything remains highly conditional, but in a scenario of oil prices permanently at > $100 p/b, it shouldn’t surprise that markets ponder a scenario of the ECB being forced to raise rates already in June. The dollar also spiked higher this morning, but momentum currently also eases. EUR/USD tested the low 1.15 area, but currently again trades near 1.1545. USD/JPY (158.6) is nearing the YTD and December peak levels. Despite the sharp repositioning of late, it looks premature to already expect a turnaround especially in the trends of higher short-term (European) yields and in higher dollar/weaker euro. For EUR/USD, the November low at 1.1469 is next reference on the charts, with the August low at 1.1392.

News & Views

Chinese CPI rebounded from 0.2% to 1.3% in February, topping expectations for a 0.9% outcome. On a monthly basis, CPI was up 1%, accelerating from January’s 0.2%. Food and services drove the quickening with the former rising 1.7% y/y and the latter 1.6%. Both were significantly higher than in January (-0.7% and 0.1% respectively). This suggests the price surge was at least partially driven by stronger-than-usual holiday spending during the Lunar New Year month. The jury remains out on the longer-term consequences of this typically one-off event. Factory gate prices meanwhile remain deeply wired in deflation territory, coming in at -0.9% y/y. It was less than the -1.4% in January though and also surpassed consensus for -1.1%. Consumer goods printed at -1.6%, showing little improvement from -1.7%. China’s yuan gapped lower during this morning’s risk-off session but pared losses intraday. USD/CNY is currently trading around 6.91.

Rating agency Fitch raised the outlook on Portugal’s A+ credit rating to positive from stable. It expects “policies to continue to focus on sound budgetary management, generating employment, and boosting investment, particularly in the fast-growing services sector”, allowing the debt ratio to continue to fall firmly over the next years. Moderate deficits or even surpluses (eg. in 2025) are expected to push debt lower to 86.8% by end 2027 from 89.6% end-2025. Economic growth is seen hovering just below 2% on average over 2026-2029 with strong household and company finances as supporting elements, along with “EU transfers, significant net immigration, and the competitive cost structure for the productive sector--including lower energy prices compared to EU peers.” Net exports are likely to remain a drag amid still-high uncertainty, including tariff-related risks, and the high import intensity of demand.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.57; (P) 211.14; (R1) 212.26; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Overall, price actions from 214.98 are seen as a corrective pattern that could extend further. On the upside, break of 212.10 will resume the rebound from 207.20 to retest 214.98 high. On the downside, though, break of 207.20 will resume the fall from 214.98, to correct whole rally from 184.35.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 202.80) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.66; (P) 183.03; (R1) 183.68; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 180.78 support will indicate that fall from 186.86 is already correcting whole up rise from 154.77. Deeper fall should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 186.86 at 174.60. For now, near term outlook is neutral at best as long as 186.86 holds, or until there is sign of upward acceleration.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations could be seen. Nevertheless, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8642; (P) 0.8672; (R1) 0.8688; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside at tis point. Fall from 0.8788 is the third leg of the pattern from 0.8863. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.8611 support. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 0.8863 to 0.8611 from 0.8788 at 0.8536. On the upside, above 0.8711 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development revived the case that whole rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 (2022 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618 will confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 0.8863 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6472; (P) 1.6523; (R1) 1.6576; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen. On the downside, sustained break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will extend larger down trend to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6691 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.6962).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8993; (P) 0.9034; (R1) 0.9059; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.9347 to 0.9092 from 0.9149 at 0.8991 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8894. On the upside, above 0.9071 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9149 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.