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Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.98; (P) 186.51; (R1) 187.37; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 184.44 would extend to retest 188.26 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside though, below 184.44 support will resume the fall from 188.26 to 183.79 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 180.74 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). However, firm break of 180.74 will now argue that a medium term top is formed, possibly in bearish divergence condition in D MACD, and bring deeper fall back to 178.02 support.

Global financial markets are experiencing subdued activity in Asian session today, with market participants scaling back their activity in light of Thanksgiving holiday. Major US stock indexes managed to close higher overnight, yet there's a palpable reluctance among investors to propel these indexes to new highs for the year. In contrast, Asian markets are demonstrating mixed reactions, oscillating within tight ranges without clear directional trends.

The commodities market is seeing some interesting movements. Gold has retreated below 2000 psychological level, after failing to break through its October high. This pullback might reflect a combination of profit-taking and market reassessment of Gold's near-term path. Oil prices are also experiencing limited movement, remaining in a narrow range. This stagnation follows news that OPEC+ is postponing its meeting, which has introduced uncertainty regarding future output cuts and consequently influenced oil prices.

In the currency markets, Dollar is showing slight signs of softening after yesterday's recovery attempt. It's now in a consolidation phase with downside potentially expected in the near term. Canadian Dollar and Sterling are also showing softness. Contrastingly, Australian and New Zealand Dollars, along with Yen, are emerging as stronger currencies for the day. Australian Dollar, in particular, is drawing strength from hawkish comments by RBA, despite disappointing PMI data indicating economic slowdown.

Euro is exhibiting mixed performance for the day and currently stands as the weakest for the week. As investors shift their focus to the upcoming PMI data from the Eurozone and the UK, there's potential for market movement. Eurozone's manufacturing sector has shown signs of stabilization in recent months, despite remaining in contraction territory. Services sector also seems to be avoiding further deterioration. Today's PMI data could potentially bring positive surprises, providing Euro with a much-needed boost.

From technical analysis standpoint, EUR/GBP is holding above 0.8687 support despite this week's deep retreat. Further rally is still in favor and break of 0.8764 resistance will resume whole rise from August low at 0.8491. However, break of 0.8687 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.8681) will argue that the rebound from 0.8491 has completed as a corrective move. That would turn near term outlook bearish for deeper fall.

In Asia, Japan is on holiday. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.24. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.32%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.26%. Overnight, DOW rose 0.53%. S&P 500 rose 0.41%. NASDAQ rose 0.46%. 10-year yield fell -0.002 to 4.416.

ECB's Nagel: Close to terminal rate, but nobody knows

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, in his remarks at a conference overnight, suggested an element of uncertainty regarding further ECB rate hikes, adding that will be "data driven."

However, he expressed a belief that ECB is "close to that level we see as the terminal rate," and added, "rates will stay where they are for a while."

On a positive note, Nagel observed that inflation is on the decline, describing it as "a greedy beast" that ECB is actively working to tame. He expressed confidence in ECB's strategy, projecting that it is on track to bring inflation closer to its 2% target over the next 12-15 months.

Despite this optimistic view on inflation, Nagel cautioned that there are still risk factors that could spur another round of inflation. He acknowledged the uncertainty in predicting future economic developments, concluding with "So nobody knows" what's next.

BoC's Macklem: Interest rates may now be restrictive enough

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, at an event overnight, acknowledged monetary tightening is "working". He suggested that the existing level of interest rates might be "restrictive enough" to achieve price stability.

Addressing the economic outlook, Macklem anticipates a period of softness in the near future. He noted, and highlighted the dissipation of excess demand that previously facilitated easier price increases in the economy.

Despite this outlook, Macklem reiterated BoC's willingness to increase rates again if the situation warrants.

Macklem's comments also came in the wake of the government's Fall Economic Statement, which he believes aligns with the central bank's objectives.

He remarked positively on the statement's implications that the government is "not adding new or additional inflationary pressures," Macklem said. Furthermore, he appreciated the introduction of new "fiscal guardrails", considering them beneficial from a monetary policy perspective.

Australia PMI composite fell to 27-mth low at 46.4, but no real signs of hard landing

Australia's manufacturing and services sectors showed continued contraction in November, reaching multi-month lows. PMI Manufacturing index fell from 48.2 to a 42-month low of 47.7, while PMI Services index dropped from 47.9 to a 26-month low of 46.3. PMI Composite also decreased from 47.6 to a 27-month low of 46.4.

Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank, interpreted these figures as evidence of a further slowdown in Australian economic activity. He commented that the data "all but confirms that the economy is experiencing a soft landing," aligning with RBA's expectations. However, Hogan also noted that there are "no real signs of a hard landing" in the survey, indicating a more controlled economic deceleration.

Despite the overall softness in manufacturing, Hogan observed that the sector "does not appear to be slipping into recession" at this stage. Additionally, an improvement in the employment index in the services sector was seen as indicative of "continued strong demand for labour." This sustained high demand for labour, despite lower activity indexes, points to a persistent imbalance between labour demand and supply.

For RBA, the slowdown in business activity is a welcome development. Still, the strong employment index and an increase in price indexes signal ongoing inflation risks into 2024.

Hogan cautions that it is "still too early to think about rate cuts" in Australia.

Looking ahead

Eurozone and UK PMIs will be the main focuses in European session while ECB will also publish meeting accounts.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.98; (P) 186.51; (R1) 187.37; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 184.44 would extend to retest 188.26 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside though, below 184.44 support will resume the fall from 188.26 to 183.79 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 180.74 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress, next target is 195.86 (2015 high). However, firm break of 180.74 will now argue that a medium term top is formed, possibly in bearish divergence condition in D MACD, and bring deeper fall back to 178.02 support.

Economic Indicators Update

Silver (XAGUSD) shows a higher high (bullish) sequence from 10.3.2023 low favoring further upside. The rally higher from 10.3.2023 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 10.3.2023 low, wave (1) ended at 23.69 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 21.86 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave (3) higher is currently in progress with internal subdivision as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 22.47 and wave ((ii)) ended at 22.31.

Wave ((iii)) ended at 23.18, wave ((iv)) ended at 23.01, and final wave ((v)) higher ended at 24.14. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. Wave 2 pullback is currently in progress with internal subdivision as a double three. Down from wave 1, wave (a) ended at 23.54, wave (b) ended at 23.8, and wave (c) ended at 23.22. This completed wave ((w)). Wave ((x)) rally is proposed complete at 24.01. Expect the metal to turn lower in wave ((y)) towards the blue box area of 23.5 – 23.08. From this area, buyers should appear and the metal should resume higher. As far as pivot at 21.85 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.

Silver (XAGUSD) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Silver (XAGUSD) Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYM9tLyQa70

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $37,750 resistance.
• BTC is still above a major bullish trend line with support at $35,800 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold prices climbed higher toward the $2,000 resistance.
• Oil prices are struggling to recover above the $78.50 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price made a few attempts to gain strength above $37,750 and $38,800. However, BTC failed to extend gains and started a downside correction below $37,500.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price declined steadily below the $37,000 and $36,500 levels. It even spiked below the $36,000 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours). However, the bulls were active near the $35,600 level.

BTC seems to be holding a major bullish trend line with support at $35,800 on the same chart. A low was formed near $35,608 and the price is still in a positive zone.

If there is a fresh increase, Bitcoin could face resistance near $37,600. The next resistance is near $38,000. A successful close above the $38,000 level might start a decent increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $40,000 level.

If not, the price might continue to move down. The bears could attempt a downside break below the trend line support and the $36,500. The next major support is near $35,000 or the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours). Any more losses might send the price toward the $34,000 level.

Looking at gold prices, it is now consolidating gains and might soon attempt a fresh move above the $2,000 level.

Economic Releases

• Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for Nov 2023 (Preliminary) - Forecast 41.2, versus 40.8 previous.
• Germany’s Services PMI for Nov 2023 (Preliminary) - Forecast 48.5, versus 48.2 previous.
• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for Nov 2023 (Preliminary) – Forecast 43.4, versus 43.1 previous.
• Euro Zone Services PMI for Nov 2023 (Preliminary) – Forecast 48.1, versus 47.8 previous.

Summary

United States: A Feast of Economic Data Ahead of Thanksgiving

• The cornucopia of economic indicators stuffed into the first half of the week showed that economic growth is slowing. The Leading Economic Index fell for the 19th consecutive month in October, while durable goods orders and existing home sales both declined more than expected. That said, a drop in initial jobless claims is a sign that the labor market is still holding up. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment improved in November, although inflation expectations ticked up again—an indication that price pressures have not yet been fully extinguished.
• Next week: New Home Sales (Mon.), Personal Income & Spending (Thu.), ISM Manufacturing (Fri.)

International: Argentina Shifts Away from Peronism

• This week, the presidential candidate representing traditional Peronism in Argentina's election lost in a relative landslide to Javier Milei, the Libertarian candidate looking to implement absolute change in Argentina.
• Next week: Bank of Israel (Mon.), Eurozone CPI (Thu.), India GDP (Thu.)

Interest Rate Watch: FOMC Proceeding Carefully on Policy

• The minutes from the Fed's November meeting emphasized that policymakers are proceeding carefully in terms of setting policy. The FOMC is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle and will adjust policy as needed to guide inflation back to target. We still forecast the FOMC is done hiking rates, though it will be some time before it begins to outright ease policy.

Full report here.

Australia's manufacturing and services sectors showed continued contraction in November, reaching multi-month lows. PMI Manufacturing index fell from 48.2 to a 42-month low of 47.7, while PMI Services index dropped from 47.9 to a 26-month low of 46.3. PMI Composite also decreased from 47.6 to a 27-month low of 46.4.

Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank, interpreted these figures as evidence of a further slowdown in Australian economic activity. He commented that the data "all but confirms that the economy is experiencing a soft landing," aligning with RBA's expectations. However, Hogan also noted that there are "no real signs of a hard landing" in the survey, indicating a more controlled economic deceleration.

Despite the overall softness in manufacturing, Hogan observed that the sector "does not appear to be slipping into recession" at this stage. Additionally, an improvement in the employment index in the services sector was seen as indicative of "continued strong demand for labour." This sustained high demand for labour, despite lower activity indexes, points to a persistent imbalance between labour demand and supply.

For RBA, the slowdown in business activity is a welcome development. Still, the strong employment index and an increase in price indexes signal ongoing inflation risks into 2024.

Hogan cautions that it is "still too early to think about rate cuts" in Australia.

Full Australia PMI release here.

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, at an event overnight, acknowledged monetary tightening is "working". He suggested that the existing level of interest rates might be "restrictive enough" to achieve price stability.

Addressing the economic outlook, Macklem anticipates a period of softness in the near future. He noted, and highlighted the dissipation of excess demand that previously facilitated easier price increases in the economy.

Despite this outlook, Macklem reiterated BoC's willingness to increase rates again if the situation warrants.

Macklem's comments also came in the wake of the government's Fall Economic Statement, which he believes aligns with the central bank's objectives.

He remarked positively on the statement's implications that the government is "not adding new or additional inflationary pressures," Macklem said. Furthermore, he appreciated the introduction of new "fiscal guardrails", considering them beneficial from a monetary policy perspective.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, in his remarks at a conference overnight, suggested an element of uncertainty regarding further ECB rate hikes, adding that will be "data driven."

However, he expressed a belief that ECB is "close to that level we see as the terminal rate," and added, "rates will stay where they are for a while."

On a positive note, Nagel observed that inflation is on the decline, describing it as "a greedy beast" that ECB is actively working to tame. He expressed confidence in ECB's strategy, projecting that it is on track to bring inflation closer to its 2% target over the next 12-15 months.

Despite this optimistic view on inflation, Nagel cautioned that there are still risk factors that could spur another round of inflation. He acknowledged the uncertainty in predicting future economic developments, concluding with "So nobody knows" what's next.

• We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its November policy meeting.
• The RBNZ's forward profile for the OCR is likely to be little changed and suggest no change in the OCR in 2024.
• Short term inflation forecasts will be reduced, but the longer-term profile will likely be little changed.
• The RBNZ will be keen to ensure as much of the recent increase in mortgage rates remains in place for a while.

The RBNZ's decision and forward track.

We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its November policy meeting. There will be more interest in the profile for interest rates in 2024 given recent market speculation of a pivot towards OCR cuts in 2024. We think the RBNZ will show a slightly flatter OCR profile that will still convey an on-hold stance through 2024.

We anticipate that recent progress on tradables inflation will be acknowledged and incorporated into the RBNZ's short term inflation forecasts. But we also see the RBNZ continuing to emphasise the medium-term risks to inflation given that the level of inflation remains high and core inflation pressures (including non-tradables inflation) are yet to significantly moderate.

We think the RBNZ's objective will be to try to maintain recent tighter financial conditions by talking tough but doing little in 2024.

Key developments.

Prior to the October Monetary Policy Review we think the RBNZ likely interpreted the data flow as indicating slightly increased medium-term inflation risks. Key relevant factors that would have contributed to these concerns included: stronger GDP in the June quarter and hence less progress in reducing excess demand; ongoing jobs and employment growth (compared to expectations of a weakening trend); higher energy and fuel prices, and improved commodity prices compared to the downside risks apparent in August. Offsetting factors will have been further evidence of weak discretionary spending, investment, and some reductions of firm costs and business and household inflation expectations. Crucially, the significant rise in mortgage rates and longer-term interest rate expectations that occurred over the August- October period were a significant offset and could be the equivalent of another rate hike if sustained. Our assessment is that the net of these factors probably would have led to a slightly higher peak OCR but mainly an extension of the period over which the RBNZ expected the OCR to remain at 5.5% (and into 2025).

Since then, the data flow has been supportive of RBNZ's view that a 5.5% OCR will prove sufficient. Tradables inflation has fallen more quickly than anticipated. Labour market indicators showed signs of the required move higher in unemployment and softening wage growth (at least in the private sector). The price of oil receded from its October highs, reducing headline inflation and expectations concerns the RBNZ may have had. Also, we have continued to see weakness in cyclical demand indicators (retail spending, PMIs, credit growth, imports) which the RBNZ will see as removing any pressure it was feeling to lift the OCR. On balance there's likely little net change in the OCR profile required for the totality of the data seen since August.

Some key medium term inflation risks remain which we think will make the Bank reticent to validate the market's pricing of rate cuts next year. A key issue is ongoing strength in population growth and migration with associated pressures on housing and rental markets. The RBNZ recognises the risks here but is reserving judgement until next year to see if the composition of migration or the level of interest rates proves sufficient to balance the risks. We don't see them making substantial judgements aside from perhaps some further upward adjustment to the forecast of near-term potential growth and a further modest upward adjustment to house price expectations - enough to acknowledge that the risks but not enough to warrant action.

The RBNZ may have some discussion on its initial take on the implications of the new government for the macroeconomic outlook. As of writing no coalition agreement has been signed and hence, we don't have a fully articulated set of policies to go on. The RBNZ probably also won't have much detail but will have an idea of the broad parameters of what the next government will do and could have a box discussing the potential implications (it did so in 2017, following the election of the new Labour-led government). The most prominent policies likely would relate to the housing market (which would likely increase inflation concerns at the margin) and the general fiscal stance (which will likely be supportive of disinflation, again at the margin). We don't think the new government's policies will significantly shift the OCR stance now. Certainly, the PREFU fiscal assumptions, with their slightly more restrictive stance, will be incorporated into the RBNZ's updated forecasts.

The communications objective.

We think the RBNZ will want to discourage markets from pricing an early reduction in the OCR. Mainly, this is because the RBNZ will not want to encourage any more easing in financial conditions than appropriate given the still present medium-term inflation risks.

The RBNZ will be aware of the current tendency for markets to run with dovish expectations and we think it will tailor communications to offset that tendency. Hence, they will talk tough about doing nothing for the foreseeable future. This likely means the RBNZ won't move their OCR forecast profile much. We expect they will emphasise a determination to get inflation sustainably inside the target range in 2024 and keep it in there in 2025. Those medium-term risks will be enough to keep them talking tough and pushing aside market views of 50-100bps of easing in 2024.

We see three main scenarios:

• Baseline case (70% probability) the OCR remains at 5.5% and the forecast track still shows the small chance of a rate hike in H1 2024, but the OCR remains at 5.5% until early 2025.
• Hawkish case (10%) the OCR remains at 5.5% but the forecast track is revised up in H2 2024 to convey an increased risk of higher rates through 2024. This would be linked to risks of housing strength, a slower rise in the unemployment rate and an ongoing sluggish response of core inflation to tight monetary policy (even though tradables inflation will be revised lower).
• Dovish case (20%) the OCR remains at 5.5% and the OCR track is revised down to a flat profile at 5.5% until Q4 2024 with a full cut indicated by the February 2025 MPS. There may be some chance of a cut at the Nov 2024 MPS on the assumption the Q3 CPI shows inflation inside the target range or provides sufficient confidence that it will be by end of 2024.

We don't think the dovish scenario will achieve the RBNZ's communications objectives, but it may attempt to discourage the pricing of earlier easings by stridently emphasising the near-term on-hold message. As we discussed in our note "When's the pivot?" we don't see many plausible scenarios for an OCR cut before the September quarter of 2024. There's still plenty of potential for upside risks given we haven't seen much evidence of non-tradables inflation pressures declining and the jury is still well and truly out on the impact population growth is going to have on demand and medium-term inflation pressures.

Our OCR view for 2024.

We still project a 25bp hike in the OCR in February 2024, with policy settings then on hold from there to February 2025. However, that call for higher rates teeters on a knife edge as the RBNZ has plenty of reasons for standing pat. We will review our forecast based on what the RBNZ tells us about its reaction function next week.

Bond yields and the US dollar rose in response to second-tier US economic data (jobless claims, inflation expectations). Australian yields rose in response to RBA Governor Bullock’s speech but AUD slipped to 0.6540. Today we see November PMIs in the Eurozone and UK while US markets are closed for Thanksgiving.

Yesterday

Major currencies were mostly little changed to a touch weaker against the US dollar, after recent strong gains. News flow was light, with perhaps only a flicker of improvement in risk appetite on the Israel-Hamas hostage agreement. AUD/USD touched 0.6570 at the time of those headlines, but generally traded quietly ahead of the Bullock speech, -0.2% in late trade at 0.6540.

Currencies/Macro

The US dollar was either flat or firmer against G10 FX on the day. EUR/USD fell from 1.0910 to 1.0885. GBP/USD fell 45 pips to 1.2495. USD/JPY rose from 148.40 to 149.60. AUD/USD dipped to 0.6521 then trimmed losses to -0.2% at 0.6540. NZD/USD fell a net 30 pips to 0.6020. AUD/NZD rose 0.25% to 1.0865.

RBA Governor Bullock delivered a speech overnight to the annual Australian Business Economists dinner, including some hawkish comments on Australia’s inflation challenge, saying it is “increasingly homegrown and demand driven…If inflation is simply the product of global supply disruptions or other price rises” then the appropriate interest-rate response would be limited…However, a more substantial monetary policy tightening is the right response to inflation that results from aggregate demand exceeding the economy’s potential to meet that demand.”

US weekly initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 209k (est.228k, prior 233k), with continuing claims at 1940k (est. 1875k, prior 1862k).

US durable goods orders, a volatile series, fell -5.4%m/m in October (est. -3.2%, prior revised to +4.0% from 4.6%). Ex-transport and non-defence orders were close to expectations.

November consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) was finalised higher at 61.3 (preliminary 60.4), with 1yr-ahead inflation expectations at 4.5% (est. and prelim. 4.4%) and 5-10yr-ahead at 3.2% (est. 3.1%, prelim. 3.2%).

Interest rates

US 2yr treasury yields bounced off an overnight low of 4.84% to 4.90%, while the 10yr yield bounced off 4.36% to 4.45% then closed at 4.40%, with the jobless claims data causing the initial rise, and then the inflation expectations survey. Markets are pricing the Fed funds rate, currently 5.375% (mid), to be unchanged at the next few meetings, with a 50% of a rate cut in from May 2024.

Australian 3yr government bond yields (futures) initially rose from 4.08% to 4.17% following RBA Governor Bullock’s speech, later extending to 4.17% after the US data, while the 10yr yield rose overall from 4.44% to 4.52%. Markets are pricing no hike at the next meeting on 5 December, but a 70% chance of one by May 2024. New Zealand rates markets price the OCR, currently at 5.50%, to be unchanged on 29 November, and in February as well, with a 40% chance of a rate cut by May 2024.

Credit markets continued to outperform with Main another bp tighter to 68, CDX in 1.5bp to 62.5 and US IG cash 2-3bp better in anticipation of tonight’s Turkey dinner. Notably, while US IG credit is now beginning to approach its low range for the year, banks are far from that mark having not yet recovered post SVB, providing further potential upside as relationships normalise. Primary activity remain light with the US effectively shut on the way into Thanksgiving while Europe saw 8 issuers price ~EUR4bn.

Commodities

Crude markets slumped circa 5% on news that the OPEC+ meeting slated for this weekend Sunday had been postponed until the following Thursday, though prices recovered much of the lost ground as fingers were pointed at African nations including Angola and Nigeria as the source of disagreement. The January WTI contract is down 86c at $76.91 while the January Brent contract is down 65c at $81.80. The EIA reported that Cushing stocks rose for the fifth consecutive week and national stocks rose by a hefty 8.7mb to the highest since July. However, a four-week measure of diesel demand hit the highest in almost a year and other oil stockpiles fell the most since September, taking some of the bearish slant off the report. Morgan Stanley described the upcoming OPEC decision as “especially critical now”. Bloomberg noted that the January Brent crude options contracts expire on Monday November 27, meaning that hedges put in place for the OPEC meeting will expire before the outcome is known.

Metals were also hit by the rise in the US$ and the deepening of bearish contango structures on the LME. Copper is down 0.9% to $8,376 while aluminium is down 1.6% to $2,221. Nickel fell by a hefty 2.9% to $16,505. The spot discount to 3-month copper dropped to a fresh record low at -$100 while Bloomberg noted that all six key metals traded on the LME are now in contango. LME on warrant zinc stocks rose by a hefty 56% to the highest since 2021 and nickel prices hit fresh two-year lows with Macquarie noting “an ongoing surge in nickel related exports” from Indonesia. Nickel prices are down 45% year to date. Codelco was cut by Fitch “due to declining output related to operational issues and the delayed completion of its key investment projects”. Codelco and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation signed a critical minerals funding accord covering the supply of copper, lithium and molybdenum.

Iron ore markets showed some signs of profit taking after the NDRC summonsed key market participants for a meeting where the current market structure was discussed. The December SGX contract is down $1 from the same time yesterday to $132.95 though the 62% Mysteel index (spot) rose 55c to $135.50.

Day ahead

Today we see S&P Global flash November PMIs in various jurisdictions, most notably the Eurozone and UK. The Eurozone PMIs will likely remain little changed in November, given manufacturing’s downbeat outlook and services activity experiencing a continual reduction in new orders growth (market f/c: 43.5 and 48.1, respectively).

In the UK, the S&P Global PMIs are expected to remain relatively stable in November, as manufacturing slows from struggling demand and services cools (market f/c: 45.0 and 49.5, respectively).

US markets will be closed due to Thanksgiving Day.