Sample Category Title

EUR/USD's pull back last week indicates short term topping at 1.1274, after hitting 1.1273 fibonacci level. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for deeper fall. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1011 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.1274 will resume larger up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.1011 will argue that larger correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 is still expected to continue as long as 1.1011 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.1011 will bring deeper fall back to 1.0634 support next.

In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1141). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY's strong rebound last week argues that pull back from 145.06 has completed at 137.22 already. More importantly, rise from 127.20 is not completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 145.06 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 127.22 from 145.06 at 146.76 next. On the downside, below 139.74 minor support will bring retest of 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

GBP/USD's fall form 1.3141 extended lower last week and the break of 1.2847 resistance turned support argues that larger correction is underway. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.2692). On the upside, break of 1.2963 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside retest 1.3141 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.2678 resistance turned support holds, rise form 1.0351 (2022 low) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3895. However, sustained break of 1.2678 will argue that it's at least corrective this rally, with risk of bearish reversal.

In the long term picture, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.2911) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. Decisive break of 1.4248 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.0351 at 1.4480) will confirm completion of whole down trend from 2.1161. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.4248/4480 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

USD/CHF's rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 0.8853. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside for 0.8818 support turned resistance. Rejection by 0.8818 will retain near term bearishness for another decline through 0.8553. Meanwhile for now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 0.8553 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8756 (2021 low) indicates break out from the long term range pattern. For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9146 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 next.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 will bring retest of 0.7065 low.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6894 extended lower last week despite interim recovery. Initial bias is on the downside this week for deeper fall. But downside should be contained above 0.6594 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6845 will bring retest of 0.6898 resistance. Decisive break there will resume rise from 0.6457.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6715) holds.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as a corrective move to up rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). This correction could have completed at 0.6169. Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.7085) will affirm this case, and indicate that rise from 0.5506 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 0.6169 will revive long term bearishness and turn focus back to 0.5506 low.

USD/CAD stayed in range trading above 1.3091 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Break of 1.3091 will resume larger fall and target 61.8% projection of 1.3653 to 1.3115 from 1.3386 at 1.3054. However, firm break of 1.3386 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) only. But even so, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. Meanwhile, break of 1.3386 will be a sign that the correction has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3976.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3048) holds.

GBP/JPY stayed in range below 183.99 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 179.45 will resume the correction from 183.90 to 55 D EMA (now at 177.57). On the upside, firm break of 183.99 high will resume larger up trend to 187.36 projection level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 187.36, and then 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 172.11 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress to retest 195.86 (2015 high). Based on current momentum, break of 195.86 is in favor. But strong resistance could still be seen from 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 (2011 low) at 199.80 to limit upside on first attempt.

EUR/JPY's rebound from 153.32 extended higher last week and it's now pressing 157.99 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend, and target 162.82 projection level next. Further rally will now in favor as long as 155.57 minor support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68, and possibly further to 169.96 (2008 high).

EUR/GBP's strong rebound and break of 0.8657 resistance last week confirmed short term bottoming at 0.8502. But as a temporary top was formed at 0.8700, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8717 support turned resistance will solidify that fall from 0.8977 has completed a five-wave decline. Further rally should then be seen to 0.8977 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.8619 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8502 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Firm break of 0.8717 support turned resistance will argue that it has completed with three waves down to 0.8502. Further break of 0.8977 will bring retest of 0.9267 high. Nevertheless, break of 0.8502 will resume the decline towards 0.8201 (2022 low).

In the long term picture, long term range pattern is extending. But rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is expected to extend at a later stage, to 0.9799 (2009 high).

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.5846 tried to resume last week, but retreated after edging higher to 1.6601. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 1.6231 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6601 will target 1.6785 high next.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

In the longer term picture, it's still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5254 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.