Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1944; (P) 1.2015; (R1) 1.2130; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as it's still bounded in range below 1.2152. Further rally is expected with 1.1777 support intact. Break of 1.2152 will target 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.1145 at 1.2288 first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.2759 medium term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1145 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9409; (P) 0.9478; (R1) 0.9525; More...

Sideway trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9680 minor resistance holds, in case of another recovery. On the downside, firm break of 0.9355 will resume the decline from 1.0146 to 0.9287 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9726) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.19; (P) 138.55; (R1) 139.44; More...

USD/JPY's decline form 151.93 resumed by breaking through 137.46 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 133.07 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 139.88 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It's too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.51).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3355; (P) 1.3476; (R1) 1.3537; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3644 resistance will affirm the case that correction from 1.3976 has completed at 1.3224. However, break of 1.3315 will resume the fall from 1.3976 through 1.3222 cluster support, which carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6705; (P) 0.6753; (R1) 0.6836; More...

AUD/USD's rally resumed by breaking through 0.6796 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 0.6871 fibonacci level first. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.6271 to 0.6796 from 0.6641 at 0.6965. For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6641 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it's too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6927) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Market are back in full risk-on mode after Fed Chair Jerome Powell affirmed that smaller rate hike would be delivered in December. Positive sentiment continued in Asia with China softening some of its pandemic restrictions. Dollar is in broad based selloff, followed by Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc. Yen is currently the strongest one, responding more to falling treasury yields. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the next strongest on positive sentiment and development in China, while Euro trails.

Technically, breaks outs are seen in AUD/USD through 0.6769 resistance and USD/JPY through 137.46 support. Now, focus will be on when EUR/USD will break through 1.0496 resistance, GBP/USD through 1.2152 resistance and USD/CHF through 0.9355 support. Also, break of 1786.83 resistance will resume the rise from 1616.51 to 61.8% projection of 1616.51 to 1786.83 from 1728.43 at 1833.73. If happens, that would be another indication of broad based Dollar weakness.

In Asia, Nikkei rose 1.01%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.31%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.56%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.39%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0075 at 0.258. Overnight, DOW rose 2.18%. S&P 500 rose 3.09%. NASDAQ rose 4.41%. 10-year yield dropped -0.045 to 3.703.

Fed Powell: Makes Sense to start slowing, as soon as in Dec

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated in a speech that it "makes sense" to start slowing the pace of tightening as soon as in December. But, the level of the terminal rate, and the time to stay there are now more significant than when to start slowing down.

"Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt," Powell said. "Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting," he added.

But Powell also indicated, "the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done."

BoJ Noguchi: Must maintain monetary easing

BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi said the central bank must continue to maintain monetary easing, keep interest rates at low levels now as achievement of 2% inflation target remains uncertain.

"While not as much as other countries, Japan's consumer prices have risen sharply. This increase is driven mostly by rising imported goods prices," he said. "What's more important in deciding monetary policy is trend inflation based on domestic macro-economic factors, which remains at low levels."

Inflation is likely to fall back below 2% once these cost-push factors dissipate.

China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose to 49.4 in Nov, pandemic continued to take a toll

China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.2 to 49.4 in November, above expectation of 48.6. Caixin said that Covid-19 restrictions continued to constrain output. New orders fell, albeit at softest rate in four months. Supply chain delays worsened.

Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: "Overall, the pandemic continued to take a toll on the economy. Output contracted, total demand was under pressure, overseas demand remained weak, employment deteriorated, logistics was sluggish, and manufacturers faced growing operating pressure. As the measure for suppliers' delivery times is negatively correlated to the PMI, the fall in the measure partially offset the drop in the PMI, leading the decline in November manufacturing activity to be underestimated."

Elsewhere

Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped sharply from 49.6 to 44.7 in November. Australia private capital expenditure dropped -0.6% in Q3. Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.0 in November. Japan consumer confidence dropped from 29.9 to 28.6 in November.

Looking ahead, Germany retail sales, Swiss retail sales and CPI, Eurozone PMI manufacturing final and unemployment rate, UK PMI manufacturing will be released in European session.

Later in the day, US will release jobless claims, personal income and spending with PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing, and construction spending. Canada will release labor productivity and PMI manufacturing.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6705; (P) 0.6753; (R1) 0.6836; More...

AUD/USD's rally resumed by breaking through 0.6796 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 0.6871 fibonacci level first. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.6271 to 0.6796 from 0.6641 at 0.6965. For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6641 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it's too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6927) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
21:30	AUD	AiG Performance of Mfg Index Nov	44.7		49.6
00:30	AUD	Private Capital Expenditure Q3	-0.60%	1.20%	-0.30%
00:30	JPY	Manufacturing PMI Nov F	49	49.4	49.4
01:45	CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI Nov	49.4	48.6	49.2
05:00	JPY	Consumer Confidence Nov	28.6	30.2	29.9
07:00	EUR	Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct		-0.60%	0.90%
07:30	CHF	Real Retail Sales Y/Y Oct		3.30%	3.20%
07:30	CHF	CPI M/M Nov		0.20%	0.10%
07:30	CHF	CPI Y/Y Nov		2.60%	3.00%
08:30	CHF	Manufacturing PMI Nov		53	54.9
08:45	EUR	Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov		47.3	46.5
08:50	EUR	France Manufacturing PMI Nov F		49.1	49.1
08:55	EUR	Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov F		46.7	46.7
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F		47.3	47.3
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI Nov F		46.2	46.2
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct		6.60%	6.60%
12:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov			48.30%
13:30	CAD	Labor Productivity Q/Q Q3		0.30%	0.20%
13:30	USD	Personal Income M/M Oct		0.40%	0.40%
13:30	USD	Personal Spending Oct		0.80%	0.60%
13:30	USD	PCE Price Index M/M Oct		0.50%	0.30%
13:30	USD	PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct		6.20%	6.20%
13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct		0.40%	0.50%
13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct		4.80%	5.10%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 25)		245K	240K
14:30	CAD	Manufacturing PMI Nov		50	48.8
14:45	USD	Manufacturing PMI Nov F		47.6	47.6
15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov		50.5	50.2
15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Nov		47.3	46.6
15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Nov			50
15:00	USD	Construction Spending M/M Oct		-0.10%	0.20%
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage		-82B	-80B

China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.2 to 49.4 in November, above expectation of 48.6. Caixin said that Covid-19 restrictions continued to constrain output. New orders fell, albeit at softest rate in four months. Supply chain delays worsened.

Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: "Overall, the pandemic continued to take a toll on the economy. Output contracted, total demand was under pressure, overseas demand remained weak, employment deteriorated, logistics was sluggish, and manufacturers faced growing operating pressure. As the measure for suppliers' delivery times is negatively correlated to the PMI, the fall in the measure partially offset the drop in the PMI, leading the decline in November manufacturing activity to be underestimated."

Full release here.

BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi said the central bank must continue to maintain monetary easing, keep interest rates at low levels now as achievement of 2% inflation target remains uncertain.

"While not as much as other countries, Japan's consumer prices have risen sharply. This increase is driven mostly by rising imported goods prices," he said. "What's more important in deciding monetary policy is trend inflation based on domestic macro-economic factors, which remains at low levels."

Inflation is likely to fall back below 2% once these cost-push factors dissipate.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated in a speech that it "makes sense" to start slowing the pace of tightening as soon as in December. But, the level of the terminal rate, and the time to stay there are now more significant than when to start slowing down.

"Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt," Powell said. "Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting," he added.

But Powell also indicated, "the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done."

Full remarks here.

USD/JPY:

The current general bias for USDJPY on the H4 chart is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, expect USDJPY to head towards the 1st support line at 135.004, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. In an alternative scenario, price could go up to retest the 1st resistance line at 138.091, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and previous low are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 138.091
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 135.004

DXY:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DXY is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st support line at 104.815, where the previous swing low is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back up and retest the 1st resistance line resistance at 106.396, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line lies.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 106.396
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 104.815

EUR/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for EURUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price has also broken above the ascending trend line. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 1.04818, where the previous swing high is located. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support level at 1.02766, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located, before heading towards the 2nd support at 1.00937, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 1.04818
• H4 1st support at 1.02766
• H4 2nd support at 1.00937

GBP/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.22770, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down to retest the 1st support line at 1.19008, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.22770
• H4 1st support at 1.19008

USD/CHF:

The overall bias for USDCHF on the H4 chart is bearish. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If the current bearish trend continues, expect price to continue heading towards the 1st support line at 0.93706, where the previous swing low is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back up towards the 1st resistance line at 0.94810 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at 0.93706
• H4 1st resistance at 0.94810

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for XAUUSD is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance at 1786.545, where the previous swing high is located. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support level at 1765.050, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1786.545
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1765.050

AUD/USD:

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance at 0.69161, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down to retest the 1st support line at 0.67711 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration

• H4, 1st resistance at 0.69161
• H4, 1st support at 0.67711

NZD/USD:

On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias with the price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and has broken out of the ascending channel. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to head towards the 1st resistance line at 0.63525 where the 88% Fibonacci line is. Alternatively, the price may head back down and retest the 1st support at 0.62092, slightly below where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.63525
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.62092

USD/CAD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for USDCAD is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance at 1.35029, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back down to retest the 1st support at 1.33578, where the 20% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.35029
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.33578

OIL: 

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BCOUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the 1st support at 86.921, where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is located. In an alternate scenario, price could possibly head up towards the 1st resistance line at 89.452, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 89.452
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 86.921

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is. In an alternative scenario, price could head back down breaking the 1st support line at 34106.01, where the previous swing high is before heading towards the 2nd support at 32490.37, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 34106.01
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 32490.37
• H4 time frame, 1st Resistance at 35492.22

DAX:

The H4 chart shows a bullish bias, with price breaking through the descending trendline and rising above the Ichimoku cloud. Price is expected to maintain its bullish momentum and rise to the first resistance level at 14709, where the previous swing high is located. Alternatively, the price could fall to the first support level at 13941, where the previous swing high was.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance is at 14709
• H4 time frame, 1st support is at 13941

ETHUSD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish. However, the price is now above the Ichimoku cloud which might indicate a shift to a bullish market. Expecting price to possibly break the 1st resistance at 1308.21, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the 2nd resistance line at 1400.48, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support at 1071.11, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1308.21
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1071.11

BTCUSD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for BTCUSD is bearish. However, the price is now above the Ichimoku cloud which might indicate a shift to a bullish market. Expecting price to possibly break the 1st resistance at 17246.66, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the 2nd resistance line at 18173.33, where the previous swing low is. In an alternative scenario, price could possibly head back down towards the 1st support at 15632.00, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance 17246.66
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 15632.00

S&P 500:

The overall bias for the S&500 on the H4 chart is bullish, with prices above the Ichimoku cloud. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to head towards the 1st resistance line is at 4177.51, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. In an alternate scenario, price could return to the 1st support line at 4031.44, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 4031.44
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 4177.51