Sample Category Title

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0481 last week but turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.0092 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.0481 will resume the rise from 0.9534 and target 1.0609 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0092 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds (2020 low), long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008) could still extend through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0635 will confirm bottoming and at least turn long term outlook neutral.

USD/JPY edged lower to 137.66 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Upside should be limited below 145.16 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 137.66 will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It's too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.58).

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2028 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2028 will resume whole rise from 1.0351 to 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.1145 at 1.2288. However, sustained break of 1.1644 will bring deeper fall to 1.1145 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1145 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759.

In the longer term picture, as long as 1.4248 resistance holds (2021 high), long term outlook will remain neutral at best. Down trend from 2.1161 (2007) could still resume for another low through 1.0351 at a later stage.

USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9355 but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. But further decline is expected as long as 0.9680 resistance holds. Break of 0.9355 will resume the fall from 1.0146 to 0.9287 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9775) holds.

In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is extending and it's probably in another medium term down leg. Downside will likely be contained by 0.8756 support in case of deeper fall. Overall, range trading should continue until further development.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6796 last week but retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.6796 will resume the rise from 0.6169 to 0.6871 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it's too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6934) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

USD/CAD recover ahead of 1.3207 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2726 to 1.3976 at 1.3204) last week. But upside is limited well below 1.3494 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3494 will indicate that correction from 1.3976 has completed at 1.3224. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3807/3976 resistance zone. However, on the downside, sustained break of 1.3204/7 will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.2952 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. . However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

Last week's recovery suggests that GBP/JPY's correction from 172.11 has completed at 163.20, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 172.11 at 163.25. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 172.11 high first. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 172.11 at 163.25 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 157.78 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) could still resume through 172.11 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 159.71 support will argue that it's already in correction to the up trend from 123.94, and deeper decline would be seen back towards 148.93 support.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.88) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY recovered last week but failed to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Correction from 148.38 might have completed at 142.54. Break of 147.09 resistance will indicate that larger up trend is ready to resume through 148.38 high. However, on the downside, sustained break of 142.65 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 139.11 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still resume through 148.38 to 149.76 (2014 high). However, break of 137.32 support argue that a medium term correction has already started to correct the whole up trend from 114.42.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).

EUR/GBP's late breach of 0.8689 minor support argues that recovery from 0.8570 has completed at 0.8827. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for retesting 0.8570 support first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.9267. On the upside, above 0.8827 will resume the rebound from 0.8570 and flip bias back to the upside instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8869 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.

In the long term picture, long term range pattern is extending. But rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is expected to extend at a later stage, to 0.9799 (2009 high).

EUR/AUD recovered after dipping to 1.5254 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While corrective pattern from 1.5704 might extend, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5274) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

In the longer term picture, breach of 55 month EMA (now at 1.5600) raises the chance of medium term bullish reversal. Focus is back on 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.7691.