Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8737; (P) 0.8780; (R1) 0.8832; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 0.8827 will resume the rise from 0.8570 to 0.8869. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.9267 high. On the downside, below 0.8689 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8570 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8869 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5373; (P) 1.5424; (R1) 1.5467; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5704 is extending. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5244) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9711; (P) 0.9745; (R1) 0.9774; More....

EUR/CHF recovered after brief breach of 38.2% retracement of 0.8407 to 0.9953. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9720 will extend the fall from 0.9953 to 61.8% retracement at 0.9616, and possibly below. On the upside, however, break of 0.9818 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9953 instead.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9970 support turned resistance retains medium term bearishness. That is, while 0.9407 is a medium term bottom, price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern rather than a reversal. That is, down trend resumption through 0.9407 is favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3265; (P) 1.3291; (R1) 1.3344; More....

USD/CAD is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the downside for now. Strong support could be seen from 1.3207 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2726 to 1.3976 at 1.3204) to bring rebound. Break of 1.3494 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside. However, sustained break of 1.3204/7 will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.2952 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. . However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6669; (P) 0.6696; (R1) 0.6729; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rise from 0.6169 is in progress. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6521 from 0.6271 at 0.6841. On the downside, below 0.6662 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.6680 support turned resistance confirms medium term bottoming at 0.6169. It's too early to call for trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6934) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.89; (P) 139.84; (R1) 140.88; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation above 138.45 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 145.54 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Break of 138.45 will resume the decline from 151.93, as a correction to the larger up trend, towards 133.07 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It's too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.58).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9395; (P) 0.9442; (R1) 0.9479; More...

USD/CHF is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.9369 support, and then 0.9287 fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 0.9488 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidation, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9821) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0278; (P) 1.0319; (R1) 1.0366; More...

EUR/USD is losing upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, but intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise should target 1.0609 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 1.0270 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0092 resistance turned support holds.

In October, UK payrolled employees rose 0.2% mom or 74k. Comparing with October 2021, payrolled employees rose 2.7% yoy or 772k. Median monthly pay rose 6.0% yoy. Claimant counts rose 3.3k, versus expectation of -12.6k.

In the three months to September, comparing to the previous three month period, unemployment was down -0.2% to 3.6%. Employment rate was unchanged at 75.5%. Economic inactivity rate rose 0.2% to 21.6%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 5.7% yoy. Average earnings including bonus rose 6.0% yoy.

Full release here.

Market movers today

The G20 leaders' summit is kicking off in Bali and markets will be attuned to any geopolitical headlines.

In the euro area, German ZEW expectations for November are on the agenda and it will be interesting to see whether the October uptick extends for another month amid easing energy crisis fears. ECB's Panetta and De Guindos will also be on the wires.

In Sweden we expect October headline CPIF to print -0.1% m/m/9.3% y/y and core CPIF excl. energy to print +0.4% m/m/7.4% y/y. That means headline would be lower than Riksbank's forecast and core would be spot on.

In Denmark, preliminary growth figures for Q3 22 are due with the publication of the GDP indicator.

The 60 second overview

There is positive sentiment in the Asian equity markets this morning as tensions between China and US are showing signs of easing. Furthermore, the easing of Covid restrictions in China as well as support for the Chinese property sector combined with the Chinese central bank providing plenty of liquidity is also supporting the positive sentiment.

Comments from Fed's Brainard supported the Federals Reserve's narrative that it will soon be appropriate to slow down rate hikes. However, the comments had a fairly limited impact on the markets.

This morning Japanese GDP data for Q3 unexpectedly shrank as GDP fell 1.2% (q/q annualised) relative to an expected growth of 1.2%. This was driven by lower consumer spending and on the back of a surge in Covid during Q3.

Equities: Equity performance reversed on Monday with cyclicals and yield sensitive sectors, especially real estate, underperforming. Sector performance fairly bunched though, with few market movers during the session. S&P -0.9%, Nasdaq -1.1% and Russell-1.1%. Futures are slightly higher this morning.

FI: There was a modest steepening of the European government bond yield curves from the short end with a modest decline in bond yields. US Treasury yields rose, but this was mainly a "lagged" effect as the US market was closed on Friday, when global yields rose.

FX: Yesterday saw some reversion of last week's moves, with stronger USD and weaker Scandies. JPY was the biggest loser within G10, despite lower oil price. Within CEE, both PLN and HUF gave up all gains from last week, whereas CZK traded steady.

Credit: Amidst continued heavy primary market activity, sentiment remained strong in credit markets, with iTraxx Xover tightening 5bp and Main 1.5bp.

Nordic macro

In Sweden we expect October headline CPIF to print -0.1% m/m / 9.3% y/y and core CPIF excl. Energy to print +0.4% m/m / 7.4% y/y. That means headline would be lower than Riksbank's forecast and core would be spot on. Headline is being pulled down by plunging electricity prices, but energy as a whole is balanced by sharply higher fuel prices. Among core inflation components, recreation, food and clothing contribute the most. CPI, which includes the effect of higher mortgage costs, is hit by about 10% m/m higher mortgage cost as Riksbank 100bp September hike adds another 0.3 percentage points to CPI inflation.

Despite inflation realising roughly in line with the Riksbank's forecast from September, we still expect them to hike the policy rate more than their current path suggests at next week's meeting, where we see +75bp compared to the Riksbank forecast just below 50bp. This as international central banks have been more aggressive than the Riksbank projected in September.

Yesterday, we published a new forecast for Danish inflation in 2022 and 2023. We have revised up the forecast on the back of higher electricity prices. Hence, headline inflation is expected to be 7.9% for 2022 and 4.9% for 2023. Our old forecast was 7.5% and 3.4%. See more in Denmark. High inflation for longer, 14 November.