Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8044; (P) 0.8066; (R1) 0.8090; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. On the downside, below 0.8020 will affirm that case that corrective bounce from 0.7871 has completed at 0.8170. Bias will be back on the downside for 07871/7910 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 0.8170 will resume the rise from 0.7871 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379 instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6495; (P) 0.6518; (R1) 0.6546; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.6528 resistance suggests that corrective pullback from 0.6624 has completed at 0.6418. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 0.6624. On the downside, though, break of 0.6449 support will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3723; (P) 1.3748; (R1) 1.3775; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays mildly on the downside. Corrective rebound could have completed with three waves up to 1.3878. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 1.3538 low. On the upside, however, above 1.3809 will dampen this view and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.22; (P) 171.70; (R1) 172.12; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. While corrective fall from 173.87 short term top could extend lower, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 172.36 resistance will bring retest of 173.87 first. However, sustained break of 168.97 will raise the chance of near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 168.80) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 196.69; (P) 197.36; (R1) 198.48; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. As noted before, corrective pullback from 199.96 could have completed at 195.01. Further rise should be seen for retesting 199.96 high. Firm break there will resume the rally from 184.35. On the downside, below 196.21 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Also, in case of another fall, strong support is expected from 193.99 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 199.96 at 193.99) to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8646; (P) 0.8695; (R1) 0.8726; More...

EUR/GBP's corrective pattern form 0.8752 is extending and intraday bias stays neutral. Deeper decline might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. On the upside, firm break of 0.8752 will resume the rise from 0.8354 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8493) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7830; (P) 1.7888; (R1) 1.7935; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.7972 resistance should resume the whole rally from 1.7245 through 1.8094 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9380; (R1) 0.9430; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside with focus on 0.9428 resistance Decisive break there should confirm that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has completed. Rise from 0.9128 should then be ready to resume to 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. On the downside, below 0.9388 minor support will delay the bullish case turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

After a week of volatility, the forex markets settled into a quieter rhythm during the Asian session on Friday. Swiss Franc stabilized somewhat, but remains the weakest performer this week after a heavy blow from Washington.

Switzerland’s diplomatic efforts fell short as the harsh 39% US tariff on Swiss imports officially kicked in. The import levy is among the highest imposed under Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” regime. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter lamented the impact on industry, calling it “an extraordinarily difficult situation.” Despite intense eleventh-hour negotiations, no compromise was reached, and Swiss officials now say a resolution will take more time.

Nevertheless, talks continue behind closed doors, with Swiss officials offering new concessions in hopes of tariff relief. “Talks are already underway based on the new offer,” Keller-Sutter said, adding that while the US is a key partner, “not at any price.” It's also estimated that the new tariffs could wipe out US market access for many Swiss manufacturers, trimming GDP by 0.3% to 0.6% over the next year.

On a more positive note, Japan appears to have secured corrective action from the US after a dispute over double tariffs. Tokyo’s lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said U.S. officials admitted to “a regrettable error” and would amend the presidential order. Duties already collected on Japanese goods since August 7 will be refunded, and the auto tariff will be formally lowered to 15%—as originally agreed in last month’s deal.

As the week nears its end, Sterling is still leading the pack, supported by BoE's hawkish rate cut yesterday. With BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill scheduled to speak later today, markets may get a clearer sense of internal debate within the MPC—and whether a follow-up cut later this year is truly on the table.

Aussie and Kiwi follow behind in strength, while Swiss Franc is the weakest, trailed by Dollar and Yen. Euro and Loonie sit in the middle of the pack as markets await the next catalyst.

BoJ Opinions: 2–3 months needed to Gauge Tariff impacts, year-end hike possible

BoJ’s July 30–31 Summary of Opinions revealed a broadly cautious stance on future policy moves, with members emphasizing the need for more data before shifting course.

Despite the recent US–Japan tariff agreement, board members reaffirmed that Japan’s baseline outlook has not improved. "Japan's economic growth will moderate and the improvement in underlying CPI inflation will be sluggish temporarily,” one policymaker said. Accordingly, the consensus was to maintain current interest rates and financial accommodation, while monitoring trade risks and external demand.

“At least two to three more months are needed to assess the impact of US tariff policy,” one member stated, noting that the direction of US monetary policy and exchange rates could also shift materially depending on inflation and labor conditions.

Still, the door is now open for rate hikes later this year. The Summary suggests that if incoming data shows resilience in the US economy—and Japan avoids major trade fallout—the BoJ could resume policy normalization as soon as year-end.

“It may be possible for the Bank to exit from its current wait-and-see stance, perhaps as early as the end of this year,” one policymaker said. That prospect keeps the door open to further hikes in late 2025 if inflation and growth align.

Bitcoin and Ethereum rally as Trump order unlocks 401(k) access to crypto

Crypto markets firmed after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening investment options in retirement accounts. The policy change clears a path for cryptocurrencies, private equity, and real estate to be included in 401(k) plans, potentially diverting large-scale institutional capital into the digital asset space.

The USD 12 trillion defined contribution market has largely avoided exposure to alternative assets. Trump’s order seeks to reverse that by reducing litigation exposure and regulatory complexity for fund managers. “My Administration will relieve the regulatory burdens and litigation risk that impede American workers’ retirement accounts from achieving competitive returns,” Trump stated. Industry participants see this as a long-awaited greenlight to diversify away from traditional stocks and bonds.

Bitcoin bounces this week but stays well below 123,231 resistance. Near term consolidations could extend. But outlook remains bearish so far with a confluence of support intact, including 112,013 resistance turned support, 55 D EMA, and near term rising channel. Current up trend is expected to resume to 61.8% projection of 98,148 to 123,231 from 111,889 at 127,390 next.

Ethereum's breach of 3,940.08 resistance suggests that recent rally from 1,382.55 is resuming. Next target is 4,108.15 key resistance. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 2,110.58 to 3,940.08 from 3,353.16 at 4,483.19 next. In case of retreat, outlook will stay bullish as long as 3,353.16 support holds.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9380; (R1) 0.9430; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside with focus on 0.9428 resistance Decisive break there should confirm that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has completed. Rise from 0.9128 should then be ready to resume to 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. On the downside, below 0.9388 minor support will delay the bullish case turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

The EURUSD pair exhibits an incomplete bullish sequence originating from the September 2022 low, targeting 1.191. The rally from this low unfolds as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((1)) concluded at 1.1275, followed by a pullback in wave ((2)) that ended at 1.0177. The pair has since resumed its upward trajectory in wave ((3)), reaching 1.183. Subsequent pullback in wave ((4)) completed at 1.139, as illustrated in the 1-hour chart. The internal structure of wave ((4)) formed a zigzag pattern. From the peak of wave ((3)), wave (A) declined to 1.1554. Wave (B) rallied to 1.1788, and wave (C) descended to 1.1388, finalizing wave ((4)).

The pair has now turned higher in wave ((5)), but it must break above the wave ((3)) high at 1.183 to eliminate the possibility of a double correction. From the wave ((4)) low, wave 1 peaked at 1.1588, and wave 2 retraced to 1.1524. The pair is nesting higher in wave 2 with wave ((i)) ended at 1.1699 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1.1608. As long as the pivot low at 1.1388 holds, dips should attract buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing sequences, supporting further upside potential.

EURUSD – 60 Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart:

EURUSD – Elliott Wave Technical Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrPJNuZXwug