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Only yesterday we questioned the sustainability of the stock market’s upward trend amid alarming news from the Middle East and the evacuation of the US embassy in Iraq — and today, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows a break below the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel.

According to media reports:

→ Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, was expected to meet Iran’s Foreign Minister in Oman on Sunday.

→ Friday the 13th became the date when Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, dramatically altering the outlook for a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement.

→ Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US was not involved in the operation, while Israel’s state broadcaster reported that Washington had been informed ahead of the strikes.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart

Yesterday morning, we noted that the Q-line, which divides the lower half of the channel into two quarters, had shifted from acting as support to becoming resistance. This was confirmed during the US trading session (as indicated by the arrow).

Selling pressure intensified, and the psychologically important 6,000 level — which showed signs of support earlier in June — now appears to be acting as resistance. It is in this area that the E-Mini S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) broke below the lower boundary of its uptrend channel.

In addition to ongoing discussions about potential Fed rate cuts this summer, geopolitical risk assessments are now also in focus. It remains unclear how Washington will respond if Iran retaliates.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Defence Minister has declared a state of emergency, warning of an imminent missile and drone attack — further fuelling fears of a possible escalation.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.73; (P) 195.33; (R1) 195.94; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35 to 199.79 resistance, and possibly further to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.56; (P) 166.16; (R1) 166.82; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 163.15) holds. Above 166.73 will resume the rise from 154.77 to 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.77 at 167.38.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8474; (P) 0.8511; (R1) 0.8546; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment. Current rebound from 0.8354 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8591. Firm break there will pave the way to 0.8373 resistance. On the downside, below 0.8475 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7648; (P) 1.7740; (R1) 1.7828; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.7245 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.8054. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.8554. On the downside, below 1.7720 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, with 55 W MACD staying well below signal line, 1.8554 is likely a medium term top already. Price actions from there are seen as a corrective pattern only. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is still expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9372; (P) 0.9402; (R1) 0.9417; More....

EURCHF reversed after hitting 0.9428 but recovered quickly ahead of 0.9291 support Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9428 will resume the rebound from 0.9218 through 0.9445 resistance. However, break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9527) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6495; (P) 0.6515; (R1) 0.6552; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.6478 support indicates short term topping at 0.6545, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6416). Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6545 at 0.6304. On the upside, break of 0.6545 will resume the rise from 0.5913 instead.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.5913 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3576; (P) 1.3626; (R1) 1.3653; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3603 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3349. On the upside, through, break of 1.3727 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1503; (P) 1.1567; (R1) 1.1649; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1372 support holds. Above 1.1630 will resume the rally from 1.0176 to 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1372 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3549; (P) 1.3587; (R1) 1.3650; More...

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3631 but quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Firm break of 1.3631 will resume the rally from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. On the downside, break of 1.3455 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3309) instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2913) holds, even in case of deep pullback.