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The ceasefire has been extended—but so has the uncertainty. Markets initially braced for escalation after US–Iran talks were cancelled, but sentiment quickly stabilized when US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire. The move removed immediate downside risks, but did not resolve the underlying conflict.

Oil is reflecting that middle ground. Brent is pressing near the $100 mark but has not broken through decisively. That suggests traders are factoring in ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz without committing to a full escalation scenario. Equities are echoing the same message. Asian markets, with the exception of Hong Kong, are largely treading water.

There are a few important points to note about the current situation. Firstly, the extension is not unconditional. Trump made clear the pause depends on Iran submitting a “unified proposal”. This conditional framework means the risk of escalation has not disappeared—it has simply been deferred.

Secondly, a central uncertainty is whether and when talks will resume. While the ceasefire extension buys time, it does not guarantee progress. Any next step depends on teh "fractured" Iran leadership presenting a coherent negotiating position—something that remains far from certain.

Since the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February, decision-making authority has become fragmented. A collective leadership structure has emerged, but divisions between pragmatists and hardliners appear to be slowing the formation of a unified stance.

This fragmentation has direct implications for diplomacy. While Iran’s civilian leadership may signal openness to talks, the IRGC continues to operate independently, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. This disconnect makes it difficult for external parties to interpret Iran’s true negotiating position.

For markets, the implications are clear. The ceasefire has reduced immediate risks, but it has also extended the period of uncertainty. Traders are not unwinding positions, but they are also not adding new exposure, waiting instead for confirmation of the next move.

Until then, the dominant theme remains unchanged: no escalation, but no clarity. And in that environment, markets are likely to stay cautious, reactive, and highly sensitive to headlines.

In the currency markets, Kiwi remains the strongest one for the week so far, followed by Loonie, and then Swiss Franc. Yen is the worst, followed by Euro, and then Dollar. Sterling and Aussie are positioning in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.18%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.33%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.29%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.45%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.016 at 2.402. Overnight, DOW fell -0.59%. S&P 500 fell -0.63%. NASDAQ fell -0.59%. 10-year yield rose 0.04 to 4.29.

Gold and Silver Recover as US Extends Iran Ceasefire, But Technical Weakness Emerges

Ceasefire relief helped stabilize Gold and Silver—but technical cracks are forming. The next move depends on whether support levels hold. Read More.

Japan's Exports Rise 11.7% in March, Trade Surplus Misses

Japan posted another solid month for exports, led by semiconductors and China demand. But the trade surplus still missed expectations as imports jumped on energy costs and a weaker Yen. Read More.

Australia Westpac Leading Index Turns Negative, Signals Below-Trend Growth Ahead.

Australia’s growth signal has turned negative. The Westpac Leading Index now points to below-trend growth, but rising energy costs and inflation risks keep RBA rate hikes firmly on the table. Read More.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6383; (P) 1.6422; (R1) 1.6459; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside as fall from 1.6842 is extending. Deeper decline should be seen to retest 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.6477 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7131) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Gold and Silver stabilized after the US extended the Iran ceasefire, cushioning markets from immediate escalation fears and preventing a deeper selloff. The move offset earlier weakness triggered by the cancellation of JD Vance’s planned diplomatic trip. However, technical developments suggest both metals are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a near-term bearish reversal, with selling likely to accelerate if key support levels give way.

Technically, Gold is showing clearer signs of exhaustion. Bearish divergence on 4H MACD highlights fading momentum, even as price attempts to extend higher. While a squeeze toward 4,889.24 cannot be ruled out, strong resistance near 61.8% retracement of 5,598.38 to 4,098.45 at 5,025.40 is likely to cap gains.

On the downside, break of 4,644.49 support would confirm that the rebound from 4,098.45 has completed, opening the door for a deeper move back toward that low.

Silver, while still relatively resilient, is showing early signs of fatigue too. The metal remains within the near term rising channel, but momentum indicators are weakening. Resistance at 38.2% retracement of 121.83 to 60.97 at 84.21 is likely to limit further gains, at least on first attempt.

On the downside, a break below 72.55 would signal that the rebound from 60.97 has run its course, and bring further fall back toward this low.

Australia’s Westpac Leading Index slipped from 0.05% to -0.13% in March, signaling a shift to below-trend growth for the remainder of 2026. The reading marks the first negative signal since August last year, indicating that momentum is softening, though not yet deteriorating sharply.

The weakness reflects a combination of domestic and external pressures. Consumer expectations have fallen sharply, equity markets declined in March, and the yield curve has flattened as short-term rates moved higher. According to Westpac, around 60% of the recent drag can be linked to the Middle East conflict, which has weighed on sentiment and driven higher fuel costs.

Despite the softer growth outlook, RBA's policy focus remains firmly on inflation. Rising energy prices are expected to push underlying inflation higher, increasing the risk of elevated inflation expectations. As a result, the RBA is still expected by Westpac to raise rates by 25bps at its May meeting, with further tightening likely as policymakers prioritize price stability over modest growth concerns.

Full Australia Westpac Leading Index release here.

Japan’s trade balance recorded a surplus of JPY667.0B in March, falling short of expectations despite a solid rebound from February’s JPY44.3B. The miss came as a sharp rise in imports offset another month of strong export growth, highlighting the growing impact of higher energy costs and Yen weakness.

Exports rose 11.7% yoy, marking a seventh consecutive month of expansion and beating forecasts. The strength was led by robust demand for semiconductors and electronic components, with shipments to China surging 17.7%. In contrast, export growth to the US was more moderate at 3.4%, reflecting ongoing trade frictions and tariff uncertainty.

However, imports rose 10.9% yoy, significantly above expectations of 7.1%. The increase was largely driven by elevated energy prices and the weaker Yen, which has inflated the cost of raw material and fuel purchases.

Key Highlights

• Gold started a fresh increase above the $4,700 zone.
• A key contracting triangle is forming with resistance at $4,900 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil tested $83.00 and recently recovered some losses.
• EUR/USD failed to stay above 1.1820 and corrected gains.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold reclaimed the $4,550 pivot level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The price cleared the $4,620 and $4,700 resistance levels.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price even surpassed the $4,800 resistance zone and the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours). Finally, the bears appeared near the $4,890 zone. The price trimmed some gains and traded below $4,800.

There was a move below the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $4,740 level. The first major support sits at $4,710 and the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours).

The next support could be $4,600, below which the price might slide to $4,550. The main support sits at $4,425. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,200 or even $4,120 in the coming days.

On the upside, immediate resistance is $4,820. The next major resistance sits near $4,880. The main resistance could be near the trend line at $4,900. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance at $4,900.

A clear move above $4,900 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $5,000 or even $5,200.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price declined further toward $83.00 before the bulls stepped in and protected more losses.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• UK Consumer Price Index for March 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +3.3%, versus +3.0% previous.
• UK Core Consumer Price Index for March 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +3.2%, versus +3.2% previous.

So here are two things to consider today…

First on Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair hearing, there were a few things he said today that we will no doubt come back to over the coming weeks (and really months once he finally gets confirmed). But there is one thing that really stood out. He has been on record saying he dislikes the idea of forward guidance—and he said it again today. We have some sympathy for that, but mostly because we think forward guidance has been overused. When used sparingly, it can be quite powerful. As we all appreciate, that has not been the case with the Fed over recent years.

But here’s the thing. Isn’t he using forward guidance right now? He continues to highlight that AI will allow the Fed to cut rates, as it will usher in disinflation. Leaving aside that, we think the timing on that impact is longer than his comments seem to suggest, the simple act of saying you’re going to cut for “x” reason is in fact forward guidance. We’ll have more to say about Warsh in the coming weeks and months.

Okay now on the consumer. Where does the consumer stand at the moment? We have data through March and, at the moment, the consumer is hanging in there just fine in the wake of the Iran conflict. Gas prices are higher, inflation fatigue is real, and sentiment has softened as inflation expectations moved up following the conflict. And yet with all of that, the hard data continues to point to resilient consumer spending, at least for the moment.

Control retail sales (ex gas, autos, and building materials) have been sturdy through March, and keep in mind, too, with core goods prices close to flat in March, that nominal strength is NOT an inflation story.

The consumer is still spending, and this is partially due to larger tax refunds offsetting the initial hit from higher gasoline prices. Right now refunds are up over $40 billion versus last year, which is a 17% increase over the prior year (and pretty darn close to our forecast of about 18%). And the total number of refunds sent is up 3 million MORE versus the same time last year. So it would be hard to ignore this reality, especially as it relates to the state of spending today.

And remember too, the refund story was an important part of our narrative that growth would look solid this year prior to the war. Right now fiscal is still a tailwind. And credit card spending through mid-April (chart below) suggests a still sturdy pace of spending. Just keep in mind, the longer this war endures and energy prices remain elevated, the more fiscal becomes a shock absorber.

Today welcomed one of the final steps for Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman for the Federal Reserve – A process that initially was supposed to occur on May 15th.

However, the Trump Administration decided to spice things up with a Powell investigation that sent yet another wave of chaos in February.

But this is relatively small detail, but one that would annoy the President even more as the investigation would prevent Kevin Warsh's validation to pursue (check out the piece linked above to learn more).

Odds for Kevin Warsh to start his mandate on time – From 85% to the current 33%. Source: Polymarket

Highlights from Kevin Warsh's morning Senate hearing

The highly anticipated Senate confirmation hearing for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took center stage this morning, and Wall Street is now frowning.

Stepping into the spotlight amid a backdrop of high geopolitical volatility, Warsh delivered a mixed address that instantly sent ripples across asset classes and triggered a decent market pullback.

At the core of his testimony was a bold declaration regarding monetary policy: Warsh explicitly stated his desire to reform the Federal Reserve, with notable calls for a review on Forward Guidance (that he wants to drop entirely) and a new inflation framework.

Rejecting the policy complacency of recent years (showing his disagreement for post-COVID policy), he signaled a structural shift in how the central bank will measure and react to price stability – Warsh's toughest point of view is on the Fed's Balance Sheet, that he wants to see reduced heavily over coming years.

This would definitely not be as positive for Stock Markets.

For markets that have grown accustomed to a highly accommodating Fed, this was a decent reality check – Wall Street really loves Jerome Powell and his exit will be surely regretted by some.

Some tough questions, particularly from Senator Warren, on his swinging hawkishness, blasted the Fed Chair nominee – and he definitely dodged the answers.

Nevertheless, Warsh aggressively reinstated the narrative of strong Federal Reserve independence – but this one will have to be proven as he never really answered on disagreeing with the President and other similar questions.

Add to the lingering uncertainty with the Middle East, and the market reaction got quite decisive.

Equities took a decent hit as the reality of a more rigid Fed policy set in.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the intraday pullback, reflecting deep institutional caution as investors rapidly reassess the broader US economic outlook and a potential return to Middle East tensions.

With the critical April 22 US-Iran ceasefire deadline looming just hours away, Warsh's unyielding stance on inflation and institutional independence has thrown yet another puzzle for Participants to play around with.

Vice-President J.D Vance has been reported to travel to Pakistan tomorrow morning (providing a de-facto extension of the Ceasefire, if he really is departing).

What is sure, is that the easy money era has officially been put on notice.

Let's dive into the major movers of this busy, and quite risk-averse session

Energy Markets

WTI (US) Oil prices have grinded higher in recent hours but remain below the key $93 pivot.

WTI (US) Oil CFD Daily Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The action in WTI remains stuck between $87 and $95 and should stay like that until Participants learn more on the Iran issue.

Metals Markets

Metal Futures Daily Performance, April 21, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz

Metals are somehow quite offered in today's session, with drops of close to 3% around the board.

Looking at reactions in the US Dollar and other Markets, it could just be profit-taking on the dip-buying at key technical levels, supplemented by some angst regarding the Balance Sheet reducing.

Gold CFD 4H Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold found pressure at $4,900 which got exacerbated by the 4H 200-period MA.

Don't forget to check out our recent XAU/USD and XAG/USD to spot trading levels:

Metals in focus with Ceasefire uncertainty – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlook

US Dollar

Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar caught a decent bounce during the Kevin Warsh hearing – hope that some of you explored our USD Analysis on time to catch the first leg.

Now retesting the 4H 50-period MA, the next move will be quite interesting (decent point for long entries on the USD, but watch out for volatile catalysts ahead).

Stock Markets

Stock Market Futures Daily Performance, April 21, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz

Stock Markets are in the red today but the reactions are for now still broadly contained.

Be careful tomorrow as things should be rocky, particularly if the second round of US-Iran talks fail to materialize.

Dow Jones CFD 30M Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Don't forget to check out our Stock Market intraday analysis to learn more on fundamentals and technicals for the coming period ahead.

Safe Trades and keep track of the evolution of the conflict ahead!

The US Dollar has corrected quite severely since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire, and not without good cause.

The infamous Petrodollar trade has gripped financial markets on all sides since the beginning of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, particularly amid the rise in Crude Oil to 4-year highs.

The USD has historically held a decent correlation with Black Gold, but the latest wave of panic during the conflict re-strengthened the bonds between the two financial assets, rowing the same boat.

The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView. April 21, 2026

With Markets ever so ecstatic about a US-Iran deal and the fact that the war is not extending much longer than originally priced, this led to an explosion to all-time highs in Stock Markets, a swift drop in Oil prices, and, consequently, a tumble in the US Dollar.

This came shortly after a daily double top in the global reserve currency, which was nice enough to mark the bearish pattern indicating a turn in how Markets viewed the war.

But after a 2.50% correction, the US Dollar has seemingly done correcting. So if the Dollar forecasted the truce, could it now be forecasting tougher times ahead?

The issue with the narrative is that the Ceasefire is ending tomorrow, and a US delegation, including Vice President J.D. Vance, is struggling to coordinate its departure amid mixed messaging from the Iranian side.

As the US President said, he does not want to extend the ceasefire, and without a deal, we're going straight back to the bombs. So FX Markets could be feeling the turn.

Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. April 21, 2026

The US Dollar is leading all other FX currencies, but the Kiwi Dollar is supported by a NZ CPI beat and the repricing for a hike at the upcoming meeting.

While the changes are small, it is now the second consecutive day of a Greenback rebound, so traders will have to pay close attention.

We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and where to look next.

Dollar Index 4H Chart

Dollar Index Daily Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar has now attempted, and failed to break the 98.00 Major support for the third time during the morning action.

This levels hold right in the middle of its larger timeframe range which implies a general lack of conviction from bears that the Dollar should already erase its War gains.

Now testing its 4H 50-period MA, a key technical indicator for the prior coming, FX markets will be facing a test:

• Breaking above it (98.40) would hint at a bullish rebound ahead, which confirms above 98.70 (if the War picks up again)
• On the other hand, rejecting 98.00 continues the bearish path for the US Dollar

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

• 98.335 4H 50-period MA (bullish above)
• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• Initial War Spike 99.68
• Weekly range highs 100.00
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone
• War Highs 100.544

Support Levels

• 98.00 2025 Support (testing – bearish below)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support

AUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

AUD/USD 4H Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView

AUD/USD is taking somewhat of a lead, bouncing from the test of its upward channel bottom in recent action.

A break above 0.71860 (March Highs) would continue the bullish path ahead and if the channel was to hold (implying peace), a rally to 0.7250 could occur.

Nevertheless, the rebound attempt seems for now quite shy, hence the importance of the March high level. Failing to reject it could lead to a break of the bull channel.

Levels of interest for AUD/USD:

Resistance Levels

• 2023 Highs from 0.7140 to 0.7160 Resistance (broken)
• 0.71867 March highs
• June 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230
• Channel highs 0.7250

Support Levels

• 0.7150 Channel lows
• 4H 50-period MA - 0.71280
• 0.6970 - 0.70 Major Pivot
• 0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support
• 0.68340 War lows

EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

EUR/USD 4H Chart, April 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView

EUR/USD is showing sharply similar signs as the Dollar Index (naturally, in reverse), testing its 4H 50-period MA this time as support.

Bears did take the upper hand at the beginning of the week, rejecting sharply the test of the 1.1850 resistance and now trading close to 1,000 pips below.

Breaking below the MA hints at further downside, with confirmation below 1.17200.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1830 June 2025 highs
• 1.1850 to 1.1860 Recent Test
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone

Support Levels

• 1.1760 4H 50-period MA
• 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
• Rebound highs 1.17200 (bearish below)
• Major Pivot 1.16250 to 1.16350
• 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support
• 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support
• War lows 1.1410

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!

Markets

After being wrongfooted on Friday, markets don’t want to get ahead of themselves again as the clock ticks down to tomorrow’s night end of the US-Iran cease-fire. Brent crude trades stoic at $95/b while the headline roulette keeps spinning. It’s still unclear whether Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad while US president Trump repeated to be ready to restart the military campaign if Iran doesn’t bend to US demands. He suggests that extending the cease-fire is currently unlikely. Core bond yield curves show some bear flattening with the front end of the curve moving 3 to 5 bps higher in Europea, the US and the UK. The dollar gets more breathing room below the EUR/USD 1.18 big figure while stock markets lose some momentum intraday. They currently trade with some minor losses. The waiting game gives us some time to grasp through today’s eco numbers, starting with firmer than expected March US retail sales. Headline sales growth accelerated to 1.7% M/M with all underlying core series beating consensus as well; including the retail sales control group (+0.7% M/M vs +0.2%). Sales growth was broad-based with 12 out of 13 categories rising. The numbers nevertheless need to be downplayed somewhat as they are to be adjusted for inflation. Nevertheless, we raise our in-house US Q1 GDP Nowcast from 2.45% Q/Qa to 2.57%Q/Qa. German (April) ZEW investor sentiment dropped sharply: from -62.9 to -73.7 for the current situation index and from -0.5 to -17.2 for the outlook. The latter is the weakest reading since December 2022. ZEW President Wambach warned that the economic consequences of the Iran war for the German economy go far beyond price increases. “Businesses are concerned about long-term shortages of energy supply, and this discourages investment and weakens the effect of government stimuli.”

The number of UK employees on payrolls declined by 11k in March according to tax data published by the Office for National Statistics. Consensus expected a flat reading. The estimated number of vacancies has decreased in the latest quarter. Early estimates for January to March 2026 suggest a decrease of 29k (3.9%), to 711k compared with October to December 2025, which is the lowest level of vacancies since February to April 2021. Separate and more dated data from the Labour Force Survey showed the unemployment rate in the three months through February unexpectedly sliding from 5.2% to 4.9%, but that was mainly because of people dropping out of the jobs market. Private sector wage growth slowed to 3.2% during the same time window. The release triggered a minor move lower in sterling this morning but it was rapidly reversed. It doesn’t alter the fact that the Bank of England will stay put when it meets next week. Markets are interested in reaction functions from the ECB and the BoE to help decide on the faith of EUR/GBP. For the past 10 (!) trading sessions, the pair has been locked in a tiny trading range between 0.8685 and 0.8730.

News & Views

• The Iran war through its economic consequences has cost France between €4 and €6bn so far, its finance minister Lescure said today. The sharp rise in bond yields alone is estimated to add an extra €3.6bn to the budget. French yields have risen between 30 and 50 bps since the onset of the war. Measures to help households cope with the energy price shock come on top of that. Given France’s perilous state of public finances, Lescure said they plan to fully offset the budgetary impact, amongst others via spending freezes.

The Bank of Japan is leaning towards keeping its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at next week’s policy meeting, people familiar said, adding that it would communicate a hawkish stance. The status quo would come amid inflation being above target for several years and with inflation forecasts at the April meeting being jacked up to reflect the energy price surge. The people noted, however, that the central bank sees little need to rush to a hike when the geopolitical and economic outlook is still as fluid as it is today. Holding steady in April does increase the likelihood of a June move if the economy holds up. Money markets have already sharply reduced the odds for an April hike to barely zero with BoJ leadership (including governor Ueda) not fully embracing such a move in recent speeches. June odds currently stand at 70%+ while July is all but priced in. The Japanese yen continues to trade near but just below the USD/JPY 160 multiyear lows seen end-April. A deeply negative real rate and the nature (energy) of the geopolitical driven uncertainty prevents JPY to benefit from its typical safe haven status.