Sample Category Title

Key takeaways

• WTI crude extends bullish breakout: Prices surged about 19% since 26 Feb, reaching a 14-month high near $78, after breaking a 28-month descending resistance, with geopolitical tensions from the United States–Israel strikes on Iran acting as the key catalyst.
• Geopolitical risk underpinning the rally: Rising fears that Strait of Hormuz—which handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade—could be disrupted have pushed prediction-market odds of a closure to above 86%, reinforcing the bullish outlook for oil.
• Technical momentum still positive: WTI maintains a bullish structure above $73.38 support, and a break above $78.10 could extend the rally toward $80.30 and $83.60–$84.55, while a drop below support risks a pullback toward $69–$67.80 before the next potential upside leg.

The price actions of the West Texas (WTI) crude oil have staged the expected upside breakout from the minor bullish flag, as highlighted in our previous report.

In addition, WTI crude broke above a 28-month major descending resistance from 28 September 2023 swing high, gapped up above $71.33 on Monday, 2 March 2026, triggered by joint attacks by the US and Israel on Iran.

So far, WTI crude has rallied by around 19% since the publication of our last report on 26 February to print a 14-month intraday high of $78.06 on Tuesday, 3 March 2026.

Below are several key support factors that oil prices can continue to see further potential upside despite US President Trump’s assurance to provide naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil flow chokepoint, to prevent any significant oil supply shock triggered by potential Iranian sabotage on oil tankers.

Rising odds on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran

Fig. 1: Probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 as of 1 February 2026 (Source: Polymarket, MacroMicro)

The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Oman and Iran, is a crucial maritime energy chokepoint, as it handles a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade and a fifth of the LNG trade, making it one of the most critical globally.

Based on the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket as of today (Thursday), 5 March 2026, as compiled by MacroMicro the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has increased to a current all-time high of 86.25%, surpassing the previous probability peak of 71.95% printed on 1 March 2026, during the onset of the latest US-Iran war (see Fig. 1).

Since the start of the probability trend of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026, there has been a significant direct correlation with the movement of the WTI crude oil futures.

Hence, a fresh all-time high in terms of the probability of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from Polymarket suggests that the ongoing short to medium-term bullish trend phases of WTI crude oil can persist.

Let’s now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

WTI Oil – Bullish acceleration intact, looking to break above $78.10/barrel

Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 5 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the tightened $73.38 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a bullish bias on the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures). A clearance above $78.10 increases the odds of the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $80.30 and $83.60/84.55 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, failure to hold with an hourly close below $73.38 support negates the bullish tone for a potential minor corrective decline to retest the next intermediate support zone of $69.26/67.80 (also close to the rising 20-day moving average) before the next potential bullish leg materializes for the West Texas Oil CFD.

Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI Oil

• Price actions have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 26 February 2026 low, with its lower boundary at around $73.38.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its former descending resistance and continued to trend higher above the 50 level. These observations suggest short-term bullish momentum remains intact.

Market volatility is turning investors’ heads as the Middle East conflict intensifies and enters a sixth day. Earlier reports from the New York Times that Iran was ready to negotiate were later dashed by Iranian authorities. Chinese financial institutions are scaling back their exposure to Middle Eastern debt – including Aramco – and despite US escort and insurance plans, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly came to a complete halt yesterday, with no ships transiting.

Donald Trump says that the US is doing very well in Iran, and investors are willing to believe him, hoping the conflict could move toward a resolution. But the news tell another story.

US and European markets were bid yesterday on the back of strong economic data. PMI data in Europe mostly hinted at faster expansion in economic activity in February, while ISM numbers in the US also looked solid – stronger activity combined with softening price pressures. The ADP report showed 63K new private jobs, higher than expected, though last month’s figure was revised down from 22K to 11K.

On the trade front, the US said it will raise the global tariff from 10% to 15%, but Europeans would keep their 10% tariff rate – whoop whoop – except perhaps for Spain. Trump said he does not want to trade with Spain anymore as the country is unwilling to get involved in the US/Israel conflict with Iran. But that apparently wasn’t an issue for markets – the IBEX rebounded 2.5% yesterday, while the Stoxx 600 recovered 1.37% on hopes that the Iran conflict could come to an end.

Frankly, I’m not sure why investors think so. There is no clear plan, missiles and bombs continue to fall, and oil and gas prices are trading higher this morning.

US crude is trading above $78 per barrel at the time of writing – near the highest levels since the Iran tensions began. European natural gas futures retreated 10%, but remain about 60% higher than last week’s levels. US natural gas futures remain steady – the US has been the world’s largest gas producer since the shale boom and benefits from relative energy independence. It is also the largest LNG exporter. The EIA had estimated – before the Iran conflict – that US gas prices would rise this year due to growing exports, but the US could decide to curb LNG exports to keep domestic prices in check. That would be terrible news for Europe. China, on the other hand, reportedly told its biggest refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports.

So when I look at the news, I see one thing: escalating tensions.

Most US and European futures are down this morning – though losses are modest compared to earlier this week – while the FTSE is up, likely helped by rising energy prices. The Dubai Financial Market index, heavy in financial services and real estate, tumbled 5% after reopening for the first time since the conflict began – the exchange’s daily limit-down level.

Elsewhere, price action is mixed. The Nikkei is down 1.5%, the Hang Seng is up about 1% but struggles near its 200-day moving average, while the Kospi rebounds 11% today after yesterday’s 12% drop. Korean market moves are mind-blowing, and the amplitude alone signals that things are not going well. And I am not even talking about rising oil prices, which are outright negative for Korea, a country that imports about 97% of its energy, much of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic reportedly halted yesterday. Price action therefore remains extremely jittery, and large gains – 11-12% intraday at the index level!! – are themselves signs of extreme volatility. And high volatility simply means high risk, including the possibility of significant losses ahead.

Globally, the rise in oil prices remains concerning. Higher energy prices could weigh on central bank expectations and push global yields higher. Rising rates would in turn pressure equity indices. The US 10-year yield continues to trend higher in Asia trading, along with Japanese and Australian yields. The US dollar is pushing higher after yesterday’s retreat. The EURUSD has slipped back below 1.16, while Cable is drifting toward 1.33.

The US dollar will likely remain in demand as long as Middle East uncertainty persists. The fact that gold hasn’t attracted stronger safe-haven flows suggests investors do not have many obvious places to hide.

So what’s next? It depends. Headlines do not point to a near resolution of the Middle East conflict, meaning the risk of further stress remains very much in play. Uncertainty will likely prevent global indices from recovering sustainably. If the conflict escalates, the dollar will appreciate further. Higher energy prices, priced in a stronger dollar, would weigh on global growth, with emerging markets likely among the hardest hit.

China today set its growth target at 4.5-5%, the lowest since 1991.

Oil exporters could diverge positively from importers in the short run. Mainland Europe, China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan are major oil importers, while the US, Canada and Brazil are among exporters. Of course, a prolonged conflict would eventually weigh on all indices – as slower global growth is bad news even for exporters – but in the short run, the pain could be heavier for economies dependent on imported energy.

There is one hope: the end of the conflict. Some investors appear willing to jump to the final chapter ahead of time – which is why we see strong gains on the smallest hints of good news. But there may still be more pain on the menu before a convincing rebound.

The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for EURUSD indicates that the rally to 1.2083 on January 27 marked the completion of wave (1). Following this peak, the pair entered a corrective phase in wave (2), which unfolded as a double three structure. From the high of wave (1), wave W concluded at 1.1776, while wave X ended at 1.1928. Subsequently, wave Y developed into a zigzag formation. Within this sequence, wave ((a)) finished at 1.1742, and wave ((b)) reached 1.1834, as illustrated clearly in the one-hour chart.

Wave ((c)) then extended lower, reaching the critical inflection zone between 1.142 and 1.161. This area corresponds to the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)), a level often watched closely by traders for potential reversals. The pair has already begun to turn higher after completing the pullback at 1.153, where we identified the termination of wave ((c)) of Y of (2).

For confirmation of a sustained bullish trend, EURUSD must break above the prior wave (1) peak at 1.2083. Such a move would eliminate the risk of a double correction and reinforce the upward bias. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 1.153 remains intact, expectations favor further extension to the upside. This scenario highlights the importance of the recent inflection area as a foundation for renewed strength in the pair.

EURUSD 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

EURUSD Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PPOuIUQD6w

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1590; (P) 1.1622; (R1) 1.1670; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.1529 temporary low. On the downside, below 1.1529 will resume the fall from 1.2081. Sustained break of 1.1576 structural support would confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level. That should also confirm medium term topping on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 next. However, firm break of 1.1740 support turned resistance will revive near term bullishness, and bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.2081 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.64; (P) 157.26; (R1) 157.65; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 157.97 temporary top. On the upside, above 157.96 will extend the rebound from 152.25 to retest 159.44 high. On the downside, though, break of 155.52 will bring deeper fall back to 152.07/152.25 support zone. Overall, price actions from 159.44 are viewed as a near term consolidation pattern. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 holds.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.16) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3318; (P) 1.3361; (R1) 1.3417; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.3252 temporary low. Fall from 1.3867 should at least be correcting the rise from 1.2009. Below 1.3252 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3867 at 1.3192. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.3008 support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3574 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7765; (P) 0.7812; (R1) 0.7838; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment, and more consolidations could be seen below 0.7877 temporary top first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7671 support holds. Rebound from 0.7603 is seen as correcting the whole fall from 0.9022. Above 0.76877 will target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD, Firm break of 0.8039 resistance will argue that it's at least correcting the down trend from 0.9002. Stronger rebound would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7012; (P) 0.7049; (R1) 0.7112; More...

AUD/USD rebounded notably but stays in established range below 0.7146. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Further rally is still in favor with 0.6896 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.7146 will resume resume larger up trend 0.7206 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 0.6896 will indicate that a larger scale correction is underway, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7146 at 0.6675.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3613; (P) 1.3657; (R1) 1.3686; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment, and outlook is unchanged. Strong resistance is still expected from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3721) to limit upside to complete the consolidation pattern from 1.3480. Below 1.3624 minor support will bring retest of 1.3480 low first. However, decisive break of 55 D EMA will bring stronger rebound to 1.3927 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Global markets entered a transitional phase as investors moved from outright panic toward cautious observation. After several sessions of heavy selling triggered by the escalation of Middle East conflicts, equities staged a meaningful relief rally during the Asian session. The rebound largely followed the pattern seen on Wall Street overnight, where U.S. equities managed a late-session recovery after earlier losses.

South Korea’s Kospi led the rebound, surging more than 10% after suffering its worst single-day collapse on record the previous session, when it plunged roughly 12%. Japan’s Nikkei also joined the recovery, climbing more than 2% as sentiment improved across regional markets. Despite the strong rebound, the move should not yet be interpreted as a definitive bullish turn. Instead, it reflects a classic relief rally after a period of panic-driven liquidation, as markets transition from shock toward a more measured assessment of the evolving geopolitical situation.

Investors appear to be gradually accepting that the Middle East conflict may not be resolved quickly. Rather than focusing on worst-case scenarios, markets are beginning to price in a baseline expectation that tensions could persist for some time. Paradoxically, this shift from uncertainty to a more defined outlook can stabilize markets. While prolonged conflict implies higher energy prices and potential supply chain disruptions, having a clearer framework allows investors to evaluate risks more systematically.

Adding to the improved tone were reports suggesting possible diplomatic backchannels between the United States and Iran. Although a formal ceasefire remains far from certain, even the suggestion that negotiations might be taking place has helped calm market nerves.

Nevertheless, the energy market continues to signal that the geopolitical problem is far from resolved. WTI crude remains elevated near the 78 level, reflecting the persistent war premium embedded in oil prices. For now, the key threshold appears to be the psychological 80 level. As long as oil prices remain contained below that mark, investors may interpret the situation as manageable rather than the start of a broader global energy crisis.

Sentiment has also been supported by solid economic data. In particular, February’s strong ISM Services reading suggests the U.S. economy may be regaining momentum at the start of the year, reinforcing the narrative of continued economic resilience. While stronger data reduces the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, markets appear comfortable with that trade-off. Investors are viewing robust growth as a sign that the economy can withstand higher interest rates for longer.

Currency markets reflect this cautious stabilization. Dollar remains the strongest performer of the week, followed by Loonie. At the other end of the spectrum, Euro, Swiss Franc, and New Kiwi lag behind, while Sterling and the Aussie sit near the middle of the performance table. Overall, FX markets indicate that conditions are no longer deteriorating, but they are not yet signaling a clear risk-on environment.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 2.33%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.02%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.97%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.81%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.043 at 2.161. Overnight, DOW rose 0.49%. S&P 500 rose 0.78%. NASDAQ rose 1.29%. 10-year yield rose 0.024 to 4.080.

China’s new growth target reflects strategic economic transition

Chinese Premier Li Qiang unveiled Beijing’s economic priorities for the year during the annual government work report at the National People's Congress, setting the country’s GDP growth target at 4.5% to 5%. The range represents a slight step down from the “around 5%” goal used in the past three years.

The introduction of a target range rather than a single figure signals a more flexible policy approach. By allowing growth to fluctuate between 4.5% and 5%, policymakers are granting themselves greater room to manage domestic challenges without the pressure of hitting a rigid numerical target.

Those challenges remain significant. China’s economy continues to grapple with a prolonged property sector downturn, persistent industrial overcapacity, and uneven domestic demand. Against that backdrop, the leadership appears increasingly focused on stability rather than aggressive expansion.

The new target also highlights Beijing’s strategic shift toward “high-quality” growth. Instead of pursuing rapid expansion through debt-fueled infrastructure or property stimulus, policymakers are emphasizing technology development, advanced manufacturing, and consumption as the core engines of growth.

Other policy targets announced in the report reinforce this balanced approach. Inflation is projected to run around 2%, reflecting authorities’ efforts to guard against deflation risks. The unemployment rate is expected to remain below 5.5%, while the fiscal deficit is set at 4% of GDP, suggesting a somewhat more proactive fiscal stance to support economic activity.

Despite the significance of the policy signals, market reaction was relatively muted. Hong Kong equities showed little immediate response to the announcement, with trading largely influenced by global risk sentiment rather than domestic policy developments. The rebound in the Hang Seng Index during the session appeared to follow the stabilization seen in US markets overnight after the steep selloff earlier in the week triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Technically, however, risks of a deeper medium-term correction in Hong Kong equities are building. The HSI recently faced rejection near the 28,000 resistance zone, where a multi-year downtrend line converges with a 161.8% projection level near 161.8% projection of 14,597 to 22,700 from 14,794, at 27905.

The index is currently attempting to hold support around the rising channel floor and the 55 W EMA near 24,738. However, decisive break below that region could open the way for a pullback to 38.2% retracement of 14,7946 to 28,056 at 22,990 at least.

Fed’s Beige Book: Employment stable, price growth seen slowing ahead

The Fed’s latest Beige Book survey showed the US economy expanding at a modest pace, though growth was uneven across regions. Overall activity increased at a “slight to moderate pace” in seven of the twelve Districts, while five districts reported flat or declining conditions, up from four in the previous report.

Consumer spending rose only "slightly" overall, with some districts reporting continued weakness. Several regions noted that sales were restrained by economic uncertainty, greater price sensitivity among consumers, and reduced spending by lower-income households. Employment conditions were broadly stable, with seven districts reporting no meaningful change in hiring.

Manufacturing activity showed somewhat stronger momentum. Eight districts reported growth in factory output, with contacts citing rising new orders and stronger demand linked to data center construction and related energy infrastructure investments.

Meanwhile, price pressures continued to build moderately, driven by rising costs for insurance, utilities, energy and raw materials. Tariffs were cited by nine districts as contributing to higher input costs, although many firms said they were reluctant to fully pass these increases on to customers due to heightened price sensitivity. On balance, firms expected prices to rise at a "somewhat slower pace" in the near term.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3613; (P) 1.3657; (R1) 1.3686; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment, and outlook is unchanged. Strong resistance is still expected from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3721) to limit upside to complete the consolidation pattern from 1.3480. Below 1.3624 minor support will bring retest of 1.3480 low first. However, decisive break of 55 D EMA will bring stronger rebound to 1.3927 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.