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Platinum (PL) broke to new all-time highs late last year, signaling the potential start of a secular bullish market in the years ahead. In this article, we examine the long-term outlook for the metal and its evolving Elliott Wave structure.

Platinum (PL) Monthly Elliott Wave Chart

The monthly Platinum chart shows the metal has broken out to new all-time highs, reinforcing a bullish outlook. Platinum remains in a multi-year secular uptrend. The rally from January 1992 to the March 2008 peak completed wave ((I)) at 2308.8. This was followed by a corrective zigzag decline to 563, marking the end of wave ((II)). From that low, the metal resumed higher and has now broken into fresh highs with an impulsive internal structure.

From wave ((II)), wave (I) ended at 1348.2, while the subsequent pullback in wave (II) bottomed at 796.8. Platinum then advanced within wave (III), which is expected to extend one more leg before completion. As long as the metal holds above 563.8, corrective dips should continue to find support in three- or seven-swing structures, setting the stage for further upside.

Platinum (PL) Daily Elliott Wave Chart

The daily Platinum chart shows that the rally to 2925 completed wave ((3)). The subsequent pullback in wave ((4)) is proposed to have ended at 1806. However, the metal must break above the wave ((3)) high to rule out the possibility of a double correction. In the near term, as long as the pivot at the 891 low remains intact, the outlook stays bullish with dips expected to hold in three- or seven-swing corrections. If Platinum fails and breaks below 1806, the next support zone in a potential double correction lies between 662 and 1344, where buyers are anticipated to re-emerge.

Platinum (PL) Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiAIf_FqxAc

On 20 February, in the note “BTC/USD Analysis: Are the Bulls Stirring?”, we outlined a broad descending channel and highlighted early signs of increasing demand near the $65,600 level.

Subsequent price action provided further grounds to suggest that, following the dramatic decline in Bitcoin’s price from its all-time high in October 2025 to the February low around $60,000, market sentiment has begun to shift. This was reflected in the fact that two attempts by the bears to resume the downward movement (as indicated by the arrows) were unsuccessful.

It is possible that the easing of bearish pressure gave bulls greater confidence at the beginning of March, resulting in notable progress. Yesterday, Bitcoin reached its highest level in a month.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

As shown on the chart, the bullish impulse at the start of March led to a breakout above the QL resistance line, as well as the psychological $70,000 level.

From a bearish perspective:

• → classic indicators added to the chart are showing signs of overbought conditions;
• → the median line (M) of the previously constructed channel may act as significant resistance.

From a bullish perspective:

• → rising trading volumes (highlighted by the arrow) represent a positive signal;
• → a sequence of higher highs and higher lows allows for the construction of a local ascending channel (shown in blue);
• → Bitcoin’s price behaviour following the early February panic resembles an Accumulation phase in Wyckoff methodology. If so, the early March rally may represent a Jump Over The Creek (JOC) pattern, signalling a potential transition into the Mark-Up phase.

Considering the above, it is reasonable to expect the formation of a pullback on the Bitcoin chart — for example, a move towards testing the support zone around the psychological $70,000 level.

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Markets

German Bunds for the first time this week gained yesterday, halting a downward spiral triggered by rising inflation risks in wake of the Iranian conflict. The front end outperformed, shedding up to 2.5 bps. Longer maturities were still up by 1.5 bps. Treasuries similarly entered calmer waters but underperformed vs Bunds in the wake of a much better than expected services ISM. The headline surged to a 3.5 year high of 56.1 (from 53.8 and vs 53.5 expected) on new orders growing significantly faster (58.6 from 53.1) and employment picking up (51.8 from 50.3). The price component eased from 66.6 to 63, a one year low. US yields rose between 3 (30-yr) and 4.4 (3-yr) bps. Risk sentiment was outright positive with geopolitical concerns, at least temporarily, moving to the background. Energy is probably the best gauge. Gas prices not only fully pared a 15% higher open, they finished 10% lower compared to Tuesday’s close. Oil prices in Asian dealings neared the $85 barrier only to end around $81.4. The jury remains out on whether it had something to do with the Trump administration’s assurances to keep energy trade flowing in the Strait of Hormuz or a later-denied-by-Iran report that the country indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss terms for ending the war. We’re in any case wary for oil (and gas) prices to drop significantly so long the war rages. Oil storage sites in key producers such as Iraq are filling up rapidly, leading them to cut or even completely halt production. The daily détente in energy prices caused relief in stock markets too, particularly in Europe. The EuroStoxx50 rose 1.7%. Wall Street added up to 1.3% (Nasdaq). It’s this risk-on mood that prevented the US dollar from benefiting from favourable yield differentials. Earlier haven flows reversed, pushing the greenback marginally lower against the euro. EUR/USD held north of 1.16. DXY dipped back below the 99 barrier. USD/JPY’s mid-February ascent hit resistance around 158. Sterling tread water around EUR/GBP 0.87.

Trading remains very much headline-based in the current circumstances. This morning is another case in point. The Iranian commander of the military ground forces said that the country hasn’t closed the Strait of Hormuz. They “don’t believe in [that] at all.” It prompted an intraday pullback in oil prices. They were again headed for the $85 barrier but are now trading around $83.5. Concerns about supply are now also triggering preservation measures by China, which told its biggest refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. We continue to look at these markets to gauge overall market sentiment. Stock futures suggest a 0.5% lower open in Europe later. The US dollar recoups some of yesterday’s losses. EUR/USD hovers just north of 1.16 with an upward sloping trendline acting as support.

News & Views

The National Bank of Poland yesterday reduced its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%. The Bank saw inflation further declining in January to 2.2% Y/Y from 2.4% in December. The NBP also took notice of a decline in core inflation over the previous year. The decision to cut the policy rate also was supported by new macro-economic projections. The NBP sees inflation over the period 2026-2028 (middle of the 50% probability forecasting range) respectively at 2.25% (from 2.95% in the previous forecast), 2.4% (from 2.6%) and 2.55% in 2028. Growth forecasts for the period were upwardly revised to respectively 3.9% (from 3.65%) and 2.9% (from 2.6%). The 2028 estimate is set at 2.95%. Governor Glapinski indicated in February that the NBP could cut the policy rate further if the new forecasts wouldn’t show any worrying signals. However, over the previous days markets had doubted the rate cut as global volatility jumped sharply and as the zloty declined due to the conflict in the Middle East. In this respect, the policy statement only briefly mentions that energy commodity prices have risen recently and that global activity and inflation is subject to uncertainty, in particular the geopolitical situation. Markets will look for additional guidance at the press conference of governor Glapinski this afternoon. The 2-y Polish swap rate yesterday eased 5.5 bps (to 3.735%). The zloty intraday after the decision hardly lost any ground an closed the day even stronger at EUR/PLN 4.27 from 4.2875.

At the presentation of the annual report of the National Bank of Belgium (NBB), governor Wunsch indicated that additional measures of € 3-4 bln that the government intends to take to bring the Belgian budget deficit back in line with the EU trajectory won’t be enough. The measures would bring the deficit below 5% of GDP. However, the NBB governor indicated that the government should bring the deficit to 4% which is sees as more sustainable, considering extra measures necessary for defense, rising costs of aging and higher interest rate costs. In this scenario an extra budget effort of €11 bln might be necessary.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.38; (P) 182.81; (R1) 183.23; More...

Intraday bit in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 184.75 will target 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, break of 180.87 support will argue that fall from 186.86 is at least correcting whole rise from 154.77, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 186.86 are merely a near term corrective pattern. In other words, the long term up trend is still in progress. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 180.78 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.44; (P) 210.07; (R1) 210.65; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 214.98 should have completed at 207.20 already. On the upside, above 212.10 will resume the rebound from 207.20 to retest 214.98 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.20 holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that price actions from 214.98 might be a near term consolidation pattern only. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, though, break of 207.20 will revive that case that it's already in a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8687; (P) 0.8700; (R1) 0.8715; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 0.8611 could have completed at 0.8788. 8. The pattern from 0.8863 could already be in the third leg. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8611 support. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.8788 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 should confirm that it's reversing whole down trend from 0.9267. That should pave the way back to 0.9267. However, sustained break of 0.8611 support will indicate rejection by 0.8867 and indicate bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6374; (P) 1.6487; (R1) 1.6556; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will resume the larger fall from 1.8554 to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6691 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside fro stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.6994).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9045; (P) 0.9076; (R1) 0.9097; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in range trading and intraday bias remains neutral. Price actions from 0.9026 short term bottom are viewed as a consolidations pattern only. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.9168 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9026 at 0.9167). Another fall below 0.9026 to resume the larger down trend is expected at a later stage. However, decisive break of 0.9167/8 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.9186) and above.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In focus today

February flash inflation. Our forecast shows CPIF excluding energy at 1.41%, CPIF at 1.75%, and CPI at 0.52% y/y. See inflation preview here. Electricity prices were high in February, and we expect them to be nearly unchanged compared to January, before decreasing now in March. The recent developments in gas and oil are likely to contribute to slightly higher CPIF and CPI going forward, but so far, the impact on Swedish inflation appears to be moderate.

In the US, weekly jobless claims and flash Q4 productivity data are up for release. The latter will likely show cooling growth in line with the weaker-than-expected flash GDP release earlier and following Q3's sharp productivity acceleration (+4.9% q/q AR), which slowed unit labour cost growth to -1.9% q/q AR (+1.2% y/y).

Economic and market news

What happened over night

In the US, the Senate rejected a resolution seeking to limit President Donald Trump's authority to conduct military operations against Iran. The measure failed 47-53, with only limited Republican support. The outcome indicates that congressional Republicans are not ready to challenge the administration's military actions, suggesting minimal political constraints on US operations in the near term. The legislation is set to be voted on in the House today, where it is expected to face significant challenges.

China's National People's Congress opened with a 4.5-5% growth target for 2026 and plans to boost spending on defence and research, signalling a sustained strategic shift towards technology-driven growth. Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of innovation and industrial upgrading to address US trade pressures and subdued domestic demand, reinforcing Beijing's commitment to long-term technological self-reliance.

What happened yesterday

In energy markets, energy prices stabilised despite escalating Middle East tensions, as the conflict widened beyond the Gulf after a US submarine sank an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka and NATO intercepted a missile headed for Turkey. Weekly US oil inventory data showed no purchases for strategic reserves last week, though the US may consider selling reserves if oil price pressures persist. During a press conference, the White House stated it could not provide a timeline for securing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, though naval escorts remain under consideration. Brent crude settled at 81.40 USD/bbl while European natural gas prices declined despite heightened Middle East tensions, closing at 47.3 EUR/MWh, down 13.15% d/d.

US and tech, President Donald Trump and major tech companies, including Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, signed the "Ratepayer Protection" pledge. The initiative aims to prevent surging power demand from AI infrastructure from driving up household electricity prices, which have already risen by about 6% in 2025 With energy costs becoming a key campaign issue ahead of the midterm elections, the pledge seeks to address growing political pressure. However, implementation remains uncertain due to the decentralised and state-regulated nature of the US power market.

In the euro area, unemployment fell to a record-low 6.1% in January from 6.3% in December, with a decline of 184k unemployed, primarily in Italy, Spain, and France. While this signals a hawkish tilt for the ECB, frequent revisions to the data suggest caution in interpreting the sharp drop. We anticipate a more gradual decline in unemployment in 2026 as labour demand has cooled, though employment growth is likely to continue in Southern Europe, particularly Spain. Meanwhile, the final euro area PMI for February confirmed 51.9, with services slightly revised up to 51.9 and manufacturing steady at 50.8, signalling moderate growth.

In the US, the ADP national employment report showed a gain of 63k private sector jobs in February, aligning closely with consensus estimates and ADP's weekly projection (+50k). January's figures were revised down by -11k. Education and health care led job growth (+58k), continuing trends seen throughout 2025. The report is unlikely to move markets significantly. Meanwhile, the ISM non-manufacturing new orders index rose sharply to 58.6 in February from 53.1 in January, indicating robust service sector activity. Notably, the prices index declined (63.0; prev. 66.6), suggesting manufacturing cost pressures stem mainly from tariffs rather than broader inflationary factors.

In Switzerland, February inflation slightly exceeded expectations at 0.1% y/y (cons: 0.0%), with core inflation at 0.4% (prior: 0.5%), aligning with the SNB's Q1 forecast. Inflationary pressures remain subdued and should keep the SNB on its toes for the time being. This is only further amplified by the recent strengthening of CHF.

In Norway house prices fell 0.3% m/m s.a., significantly below Norges Bank's forecast of a 0.6% increase. This is not the determining short-term driver of monetary policy, but it does suggest some more caution amid reduced outlook for rate cut.

In Sweden, the services PMI unexpectedly fell to 48.3 in February from 53.8 in January, driven by a notable drop in business volume and new orders. It is too early to determine whether this decline is temporary or signals a more sustained trend. The weakness in services also pulled the composite PMI down to 50.5 from 54.4 in January.

Equities: Global equities rebounded through yesterday's session as the news flow from Iran evolved during the day. Despite mixed and at times contradictory headlines, particularly regarding Iran's willingness to negotiate, Western markets ultimately closed higher across both North America and Europe. This stood in sharp contrast to the heavy losses seen earlier in Asia and Japan yesterday.

Looking at the broader picture, however, the recent volatility has not translated into dramatic moves on a global aggregate level. Over the past five sessions global equities are down roughly 2.5%, while cyclicals have underperformed defensives by around 1pp.

Given the magnitude of the geopolitical shock originating from Iran, the relatively contained reaction across risk assets reflects that markets continue to frame the conflict primarily through the lens of energy supply risk, specifically the potential disruption of oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, the broader macro-financial transmission channels remain limited.

This morning, Asian equities are trading higher, led by an extraordinary rebound of more than 10% in South Korea. As we highlighted yesterday, these markets currently display significant exuberance, and in such an environment even relatively small pieces of news can trigger outsized moves. This is why we wrote about getting caught wrong-footed yesterday and why we see many investors moving very close to benchmark.

This morning we have both European and US futures are modestly lower.

FI and FX: There was stabilisation in the market yesterday with European bond yields declining and corporate bond spread stabilising even though US bond yields rose in the afternoon after better than expected US economic data supported the equity market but also send US Treasury yields modestly higher. This morning, we have seen a rise in government bond yield across the Asian markets.

Energy prices stabilized yesterday amid a still tense situation in the Middle East. The weekly US oil inventory data showed that the US again did not buy for its strategic reserves last week ahead of the start of the military campaign. If pressure on oil prices does not start to ease, the US would likely consider selling strategic reserves. That will not be able to replace the oil shut in behind the Strait of Hormuz though but can help contain prices.

Key takeaways

• WTI crude extends bullish breakout: Prices surged about 19% since 26 Feb, reaching a 14-month high near $78, after breaking a 28-month descending resistance, with geopolitical tensions from the United States–Israel strikes on Iran acting as the key catalyst.
• Geopolitical risk underpinning the rally: Rising fears that Strait of Hormuz—which handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade—could be disrupted have pushed prediction-market odds of a closure to above 86%, reinforcing the bullish outlook for oil.
• Technical momentum still positive: WTI maintains a bullish structure above $73.38 support, and a break above $78.10 could extend the rally toward $80.30 and $83.60–$84.55, while a drop below support risks a pullback toward $69–$67.80 before the next potential upside leg.

The price actions of the West Texas (WTI) crude oil have staged the expected upside breakout from the minor bullish flag, as highlighted in our previous report.

In addition, WTI crude broke above a 28-month major descending resistance from 28 September 2023 swing high, gapped up above $71.33 on Monday, 2 March 2026, triggered by joint attacks by the US and Israel on Iran.

So far, WTI crude has rallied by around 19% since the publication of our last report on 26 February to print a 14-month intraday high of $78.06 on Tuesday, 3 March 2026.

Below are several key support factors that oil prices can continue to see further potential upside despite US President Trump’s assurance to provide naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil flow chokepoint, to prevent any significant oil supply shock triggered by potential Iranian sabotage on oil tankers.

Rising odds on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran

Fig. 1: Probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 as of 1 February 2026 (Source: Polymarket, MacroMicro)

The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Oman and Iran, is a crucial maritime energy chokepoint, as it handles a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade and a fifth of the LNG trade, making it one of the most critical globally.

Based on the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket as of today (Thursday), 5 March 2026, as compiled by MacroMicro the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has increased to a current all-time high of 86.25%, surpassing the previous probability peak of 71.95% printed on 1 March 2026, during the onset of the latest US-Iran war (see Fig. 1).

Since the start of the probability trend of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026, there has been a significant direct correlation with the movement of the WTI crude oil futures.

Hence, a fresh all-time high in terms of the probability of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from Polymarket suggests that the ongoing short to medium-term bullish trend phases of WTI crude oil can persist.

Let’s now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

WTI Oil – Bullish acceleration intact, looking to break above $78.10/barrel

Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 5 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the tightened $73.38 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a bullish bias on the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures). A clearance above $78.10 increases the odds of the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $80.30 and $83.60/84.55 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, failure to hold with an hourly close below $73.38 support negates the bullish tone for a potential minor corrective decline to retest the next intermediate support zone of $69.26/67.80 (also close to the rising 20-day moving average) before the next potential bullish leg materializes for the West Texas Oil CFD.

Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI Oil

• Price actions have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 26 February 2026 low, with its lower boundary at around $73.38.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its former descending resistance and continued to trend higher above the 50 level. These observations suggest short-term bullish momentum remains intact.