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WTI Crude Oil, currently trading near $59.15 as of January 15, 2026, is under pressure following a sharp reversal and failure to hold the $61.00 level, driven by geopolitical volatility and the evaporation of a risk premium. This technical analysis explores the immediate neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook, while noting significant long-term indicators, such as the oversold monthly Stochastic and a 15-year short extreme in the COT report, which suggest the potential for a substantial bullish trend reversal.

Crude oil - Daily chart

Source: Tradingview.com Crude oil daily chart - Past performance is not indicative of future results

• Market Context & Price Action: WTI Crude oil is currently trading around $59.15, having recently undergone a sharp reversal after failing to sustain a breakout above the $61.00 level. The chart reflects a period of heightened volatility triggered by geopolitical developments (specifically regarding US-Iran tensions) that saw a rapid "risk premium" evaporation.
• As of June 2025, crude oil has been trading within a descending Channel, as marked by the red lines on the above chart. On Friday, January 9th, 2026, price action broke above the descending channel's upper boundary and has remained above it since. The break took the price above a confluence of resistance, the intersection of the SMA21, the upper channel boundary, and the monthly PP at 57.68. The broken level has now turned into support.
• ​Candlestick Analysis: The most recent daily candle is a large red "marubozu-style" or bearish engulfing candle, indicating intense selling pressure and a rejection of the recent multi-day rally.
• Monthly Support/Resistance levels: Pivot Point (P) at $57.68. Above that, resistance is firm at $60.37 (R1) and $63.25 (R2). Immediate support lies at $54.81 (S1).
• Price action broke above a secondary, steeper descending line (blue) and completed a throwback, finding support above the broken level. The fast EMA9 and SMA9 intersect with the blue line, forming an intermediate confluence of support.
• Gap Analysis: A significant price gap from early November (marked on the chart). Gaps often act as "magnets" for price action, even after they have been filled.
• Momentum oscillators: RSI (14): Currently at 52.21. This is a neutral reading, showing that the recent overbought conditions have been reset. However, the sharp downward slope of the RSI line indicates potential decelerating momentum.
• Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The Stochastic Oscillator is at 50.67 and falling. It has fallen below its signal line from a high, confirming short-term weakness.

Crude oil - Monthly chart

Source: Tradingview.com Crude oil monthly chart - Past performance is not indicative of future results

• Applying the Fibonacci retracement (FIB) level to the "V-shaped" recovery from the 2020 lows (green diagonal line), which peaked in 2022 near $123.00, reflects that the current price of $59.22 is situated within a critical technical "battleground" defined by yearly levels.
• This area (highlighted in the yellow box) is a primary long-term support zone where the price has historically encountered support/resistance. The current price action on the monthly chart suggests a potential double bottom is forming.
• Momentum Oscillators: A potential positive divergence may be in play, as RSI is making higher lows while price action is making equal lows. (The potential double bottom)
  Stochastic (14, 1, 3): Sitting at 16.40, the Stochastic is in the oversold territory. Historically, readings this low have often preceded a short-term relief rally or a period of stabilization.

Commitment of traders report (COT)

Source: Cotbase.com Commitment of traders - Crude oil COT report

The most recent COT report, released on January 9th, 2026, including data up to January 6th, 2026, reflected that the “Managed money” category has reached a 15-year net short position level extreme, and is currently moving towards net long territory, suggesting that a change in sentiment and a reversal may be in play. Producers/Merchants' positioning is also moving towards short after reaching an all-time high, an extreme long position level.

Conclusion

The technical verdict for WTI Crude Oil is immediately neutral-to-bearish, with the failure to hold above $60.00 and the break below moving averages suggesting the path of least resistance is toward the S1 support level ($54.81). Bulls must secure a daily close back above the Pivot ($57.69) to regain control. This short-term caution, however, is offset by significant long-term indicators: the price is in a critical monthly Fibonacci support zone, the Stochastic oscillator is oversold, and the recent COT report shows a 15-year Managed Money short extreme. Ultimately, while traders should respect the short-term downside risk, the underlying sentiment and monthly chart structure suggest that the current price action may be forming the foundation for a more substantial, long-term bullish trend reversal.

CHFJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• CHFJPY reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 196.00

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 198.806 (which stopped impulse wave 1 in December) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from the resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.

Given the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 196.00 (low of the previous correction 2).

WTI Crude Oil: ⬇️ Sell

• WTI Crude Oil rising inside minor impulse wave (1)
•  Likely to reach resistance level 965.0

WTI Crude Oil recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 61.00 (former Double Top from November), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.

The downward reversal from the resistance zone is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji – if the price closes today near the current levels.

Given the strong daily downtrend, WTI Crude Oil can be expected to fall to the next support level 58.40 (former resistance from December).

• Oil gives back its Iran-led premium as tensions abate
• Exploring Technical Analysis to see where things currently stand
• Looking at how any possible surprise could affect WTI prices

Prices were indeed reaching extremes. Yesterday's surge to $62 was met with a sharp, one-way correction back to the low $59s, with the commodity actually finishing the session lower by 1%.

The premium was built on the perception that a US intervention in Iran was imminent.

The movement of US Army assets from nearby bases, including Al-Udeid in Qatar, was seen as a concrete sign of incoming action, as these foreign bases could be targets for shorter-range Iranian missiles.

However, recent reports suggest that Gulf leaders—including those from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman—persuaded the US President to walk back his threats.

The compromise stems from US reluctance to get bogged down in a prolonged war if limited intervention fails to trigger regime change—a risk heavily emphasized by US strategic counselors.

Still, the revolts show no signs of easing. The pain for Iranian civilians is real, as they face the weakest Rial in history amidst extreme inflation, power and water outages, and record air pollution.

Looking at betting markets, this dynamic is far from over. Odds for an attack before the end of the month still hover around 30%.

Betting Odds of a US intervention in Iran – Source: Polymarket

The Trump Admin calls for an emergency UN Security Council meeting regarding the issue. Keep a close eye on the headlines regarding such.

We will dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the WTI (US) Oil to determine potential price levels in the event of an US intervention or lack thereof.

US Oil Intraday Timeframe Analysis

WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels

WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 15, 2026. Source: TradingView

After yesterday's scenario analysis, WTI prices did really respond to the 200-Day Moving Average at $62.40 as the dynamic for an immediate intervention stalled.

In event-based trading, it is essential to mark upper and lower bounds for scenarios; From yesterday's example:

• Breaking above the 200-Day MA implied heightened volatility expectations
• Rejecting it would mean lower tensions

So where are we today?

Having broken the upward impulse, the premium unwinding is leading to the immediate retest of the July Monthly Bear Channel which provides support and a lower bound for action.

• Holding the channel highs ($58.50 to $59.30) implies that traders still haven't given up entirely on the event
• Breaking below (re-entering the bear channel), translates into an intervention that is not a high-probability event anymore.
• Any surprise rally above yesterday's highs ($62.41), particularly on high volume and pace, is a trigger to know that the hammer is going down.

WTI Technical Levels

Levels to place on your WTI charts:

Resistance Levels

• $60.50 Pivot Zone top
• $62.40 Past day highs (Above mean tensions)
• Resistance May 2025 Range $63 to $64
• Key September Resistance $65 to $66

Support Levels

• $58.50 to $59.30 Break-Retest Zone at Bear Channel Highs (+ 4H 50-MA)
• $57.70 Friday lows mini support
• Venezuela Lows $55.83
• $55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows

30M Chart and Trading Setups

WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 15, 2026. Source: TradingView

Looking closer to short-timeframes, the premium is progressively decreasing in a downward intraday trend – A small bear channel.

Breaking below the Iran Premium Support area $58.50 to $59 would be the final level to assume that the event is fully done.

However, breaking above the intraday channel however doesn't necessarily mean that the event is fully back: It will depend on the pace of the breakout.

• With traders exposing themselves again as prices correct, plus a technical break-retest, a rebound here would not be surprising.
  • A slow grind higher could establish a range to $60.50
  • A sudden explosion higher however confirms that things are heating up
  • In the event of a breakout above the previous day highs, WTI prices could easily go between $65 (conservative) to $80 for the most extreme case.
• Holding the channel to break below the support would lead to a re-entering of the July bear channel.

Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee delivered a blunt warning on central bank independence, saying any attempt to undermine the Fed would have severe economic consequences. “Anything that’s infringing or attacking the independence of the central bank is a mess,” he told CNBC.

Goolsbee cautioned that political interference in monetary policy would almost certainly reignite inflation pressures. “You’re going to get inflation come roaring back if you try to take away the independence of the central bank,” he said.

Drawing an international comparison, Goolsbee noted that criminal investigations targeting central banks are typically seen in countries such as Zimbabwe, Russia, and Turkey. He said these examples are not ones “you would characterize as advanced economies”.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated today that the Federal Reserve needs to keep policy restrictive to address inflation that remains above target. While acknowledging that the labor market has loosened over the past year, Bostic said an unemployment rate of 4.4% still reflects a strong employment backdrop.

Bostic said he expects US GDP growth “north of 2%” this year, adding that growth in the mid-2% range would not surprise him. From a historical perspective, he described that pace as “incredibly strong,” arguing that the US economy continues to operate above its "long-run potential" and that this momentum should extend into 2026.

He attributed the outlook to resilient consumer, stronger household balance sheets than before the pandemic, and policy support from last year’s tax bill. With growth that firm, Bostic warned price pressures are likely to persist, noting that inflation risks extend beyond tariffs to areas such as medical insurance.

Markets

Some of the largest intraday market moves were to be found in commodities. For starters, oil. The black gold slides from prices just south of $67 yesterday to $63.7 per barrel today (4.5%), snapping a five day winning streak. Losses followed on reports that president Trump received assurances that the killing of Iranian protesters is stopping. Markets concluded military action by the US in Iran, thereby potentially disrupting oil flows, is now less likely. It’s highly uncertain whether such military escalation is indeed off the table with Trump prior to the B2-bomber attacks last summer having created a smokescreen too. Gold loses some modest ground (-0.7%) to sub $4600/ounce, perhaps linked to this geopolitical de-escalation. Silver prices drop back below $90 (-4.7%), again on Trump-news that the president doesn’t plan to impose tariffs on critical metals, including silver but also platinum (-3%). Instead the president floated the idea of price floors. Both gold & silver (and platinum for that matter) remain near historical highs though. We’re seeing other metals catching a breather as well after rallying at breakneck pace for reasons varying from a general preference for hard assets that are limited in supply (dollar debasement trade) to high demand linked to AI and the electrification. Copper (-2.5%), nickel (-4%) or zinc (-3% intraday move) all slip.

The bull flattening in FI yesterday made way for some bear flattening today. Core bond yields rise 0.1-2.3 bps in Germany and 0.5-4 bps in the US. Treasuries started underperforming (at the front) following a sub 200k jobless claims print, which was the second lowest in two years. It strengthens last week’s payrolls message that the labour market is not dramatically deteriorating, or in any case not as much that it requires further rate cuts in the short run (ie next week). Other second-tier US data was strong too with both the Empire Manufacturing and Philly Fed Business Outlook indicators rebounding much more than expected (to 7.7 and 12.6 respectively from -3.9 and -10.2). Germany meanwhile posted its first annual GDP growth since 2022 as the effects of its spending spree begin to unfold. Private & government consumption rose by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. UK yields added 2.4-3.7 bps across the curve with industrial production, services activity and the monthly GDP indicator are topping estimates. It failed to help sterling though. EUR/GBP appreciates to 0.867. The US dollar strengthens against most G10 peers. EUR/USD drops to 1.1607, the lowest in a month. DXY is nearing a first resistance around 99.51 (23.6% recovery on the 2025 decline). JPY is unimpressed by a Bloomberg report that’s citing people familiar with the matter that the BoJ pays increasing attention to the weak yen’s potential impact on inflation. While the sources don’t expect a rate hike this month, it could impact policy going forward. USD/JPY is filling bids around 158.77. Strong earnings from Taiwan’s TSMC rekindles AI optimism, leading the Nasdaq to almost fully recover yesterday’s 1% loss at the open today.

News & Views

The Peoples Bank of China today announced that it will cut interest rate on its structural monetary policy tools by 25 bps starting on Monday. The rate on one year loans will be reduced to 1.25%. The move eases financing conditions for specific sectors in the economy rather than a broad monetary easing. The bank also announced that it will expand a relending programme for tech innovation and provide additional financing facilities for the agricultural sector and small private firms. During a briefing, Deputy governor Zou Lan indicated that there is room for the PBOC to cut its policy rate and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) later this year. Maybe considerations on financial stability (including on stock market valuations) were a reason for the bank not the ease policy on a broader scale. On the yuan, the deputy governor indicated that yuan is currently evaluated as being stable an is no constraint for interest rate cuts. The recent decline in the USD/CNY rate was seen as driven by USD weakness. After some intraday volatility, the yuan again trades near the strongest levels since May 2023 (6.97 area).

German IFO sentiment on the construction sector turned more gloomy at the end of 2025. The index declined from -19.3 to -20.6. Companies assessed their current situation and expectations for the coming months as worse. Ifo commented that “Residential construction can’t quite make any headway”. The share of residential construction companies reporting too few orders rose further to 47.7%. Companies also reported higher cancelations (11% to 11.5%.). The gloomy outcome comes even as residential building permits have been rising recently. However it takes time for this to translate into actual orders.

Gold price edged lower on Thursday after hitting a series of new marginally higher highs in past three days ($4630/34/43).

Today’s calmer rhetoric from President Trump over Iran crisis and conflict with Fed Chief Powell, cooled the sentiment and paused recent rally for now.

Trump opted for wait and see strategy instead of military action in Iran, as he initially signaled and sidelined the story about removing Powell from his position before his mandate ends in May.

However, overall picture remains bullish, with no significant changes in the key factors that drive metal’s price, suggesting that bulls may take some time for consolidation before resuming.

Today’s dip was so far limited, with price holding above $4600 after a brief dip to $4581, although overbought daily studies (also RSI bearish divergence), keep the downside vulnerable.

First significant supports lay at $4550 (former top / broken bull-channel upper line), followed by $ 4500 zone (psychological / 10DMA / Fibo 38.2% of $4274/$4643 upleg) where extended dips should find firm ground.

Res: 4643; 4687; 4700; 4720.
Sup: 4581; 4550; 4500; 4458.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7980; (P) 0.8004; (R1) 0.8024; More….

USD?CHF"s rise from 0.7860 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.8123 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7983 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, corrective pattern from 0.7828 low is in progress and would extend further.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a correction. Larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is in still in progress. Break of 0.7828 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).