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Markets

European stock markets bit the dust yesterday, underperforming strongly vs US peers. The EuroStoxx50 tumbled 3.6% with some national indices doing even worse. Spain for example lost 4.6% over threats from president Trump to “cut off all trade” after the country denied the US access to military basis for the bombing campaign against Iran. Main indices on Wall Street lost around 1%, paring initial opening losses of up to 2.75% (Nasdaq). US stocks recovered after the Trump administration sought to assure energy trade flow through the Strait of Hormuz by offering insurance guarantees and naval escorts if needed. It’s not clear how quickly this can come about and we’re not sure whether oil tankers are ready to take the personal risk. But the news in any case caused oil and gas prices to return from their intraday highs. Net daily changes still amounted to <5% for Brent and >20% for Dutch TTF gas though. Core bonds, fearing inflation risks, extended their fall. They finished off the lows though with yields printing between 2.4-3.4 bps higher in the US and 2.8-6.6 bps in Germany. The Middle East war will continue to dominate overall sentiment, in the first place through energy markets. And despite Trump’s assurances, Brent is again rallying almost 3% towards the $85 barrier on growing supply concerns. Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, late yesterday began closing its biggest oil field due to shipping constraints. Asian markets are suffering with major net oil importers such as Japan feeling the heat. The Nikkei yanks almost 4% lower. Huge outflows press the likes of South Korea down by 12%. is The greenback rallied yesterday with EUR/USD down from 1.1688 to 1.1613. The pair traded as low as 1.1530 before the upward trending line that connects the August and November lows offered some support. While having zero market impact, it is still worth noting that yesterday’s January European inflation figures came in at the high end of expectations. Overall prices rose the expected 1.9%, accelerating from 1.7%. Core CPI, however, topped consensus estimates by accelerating to 2.4% from 2.2%. Our in-house nowcast was 1.81% for headline. The Middle East conflict obviously resulted in an adjusted nowcast for March, which now stands at 2.13% for the headline and 2.2% for core. The current underlying assumption of a 15% oil and 40% TTF gas price rise (vs last month) remains subject to revision. The economic calendar today features some interesting data including the Fed Beige Book release, the ADP job report for February (50k) and the ISM services index (53.5 from 53.8). Despite their high-profile nature we don’t expect them to influence trading much. Even in case of a miss, we don’t expect core bonds to rally in what would be a stagflationary environment.

News & Views

GDP growth in Australia in Q4 2025 accelerated to 0.8% Q/Q and 2.6% Y/Y, up from 0.5% Q/Q. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said private and public demand both contributed to growth. Household spending rose 0.3%. Government expenditure grew 1%. Private investment increased for the fifth consecutive quarter (0.7%). Inventories contributed a positive 0.4% to the overall growth figure. Net exports delivered a small negative contribution (-0.1 ppt). Despite a constructive demand picture, the household saving ratio increased to 6.9% from 6.1%. The ratio is now at its highest level since the September quarter 2022. Household disposable income rose 1.8%, significantly higher than the nominal increase in household spending (1.1%). Also from a supply side point of view, growth was broad-based with production levels rising in 17 of the 19 industry groups. The reaction release was modest even as the Reserve Bank of Australia recently indicated the economy grows above capacity. This maybe has to do with the mix of modest consumption growth and a higher savings ratio. After opening higher, the 2-y yield even eased slightly (-4 bps to 4.27%). Money markets still see a chance of about 25% of a March rate hike. The Aussie dollar eases slightly to test the AUD/USD 0.70 level.

China PMI releases published this morning showed mixed, diffuse picture. The official PMI, which is mainly based on state-owned (large) and domestic oriented companies eased slightly from 49.8 to 49.5. Both the manufacturing measure (49) and the non-manufacturing survey (49.5) held below the 50 mark. At the same time, the RatingDog China composite PMI, which is compiled by S&P global and seen as more sensitive to foreign demand, accelerated sharply (composite 55.4 from 51.6, manufacturing 52.1 from 50.3 & services 56.7 from 52.3). On manufacturing, S&P analyses that the rise ‘was boosted by stronger increases in new orders, output and stocks of purchases. These impacts were partly countered by shorter suppliers' delivery times, while the employment component again exerted a broadly neutral impact’. On services S&P sees activity expanding at the fastest pace since May 2023, but this still also resulted in a fresh fall in staffing levels. Input price inflation remains modest, but some pricing power lifts output prices. After a correction over the previous three days, the yuan this morning stabilizes near USD/CNY 6.9154.

Gold price extended losses below $5,100 before the bulls appeared. WTI Crude oil prices are rising and could climb further higher toward $80.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear $5,420 and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $5,255 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $72.00 resistance zone.
• There is a bullish trend line forming with support near $72.85 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above $5,150. The price even broke $5,250 before the bears appeared. The price traded toward $5,420 before there was a fresh decline.

There was a move below $5,250 and $5,050. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 40. Finally, it tested the $5,000 handle. A low was formed at $4,995 and the price is now attempting to recover.

The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,419 swing high to the $4,995 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is $5,205 and the 50% Fib retracement.

The first major hurdle sits at $5,255. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $5,255. A close above $5,255 could initiate a recovery wave to $5,420. An upside break above $5,420 could send Gold price toward $5,500. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $5,650.

If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $5,125 level. The first key area of interest might be $5,080. If there is a downside break below $5,080, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $5,000.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a strong increase from $63.50 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke $68.00.

There was a sustained upward movement above $69.50 and $72.00. The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average, and the RSI climbed toward 80. A high was formed near $77.07 before there was a minor pullback.

The price declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63.56 swing low to the $77.07 high. However, the bulls are active above $72.00. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $72.85.

Immediate resistance is $75.00. If the price climbs further, it could face hurdles near $77.05. The next major stop for the bulls might be $78.00. Any more gain might send the price toward $80.00.

Conversely, the price might correct gains and retest the 50-hour simple moving average or the trend line. The next area of interest on the WTI crude oil chart is near the 50% Fib retracement at $70.35. If there is a downside break, the price might decline to $66.75. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $63.55.

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Key takeaways

• Risk-off persists despite US assurances: Markets remain defensive even after Trump pledged naval escorts and insurance guarantees for Hormuz-bound tankers. Asian equities slid sharply, while WTI crude climbed toward $76 and gold advanced, reflecting ongoing geopolitical anxiety.
• Hormuz closure fears intensify: The probability of Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz has risen above 70%, heightening concerns of a supply shock that could push oil toward $100, tighten global liquidity, and increase recession risks.
• Swiss franc regains haven appeal: CHF is stabilising as EUR/CHF drifts lower within a descending channel. A break below 0.9010 could trigger further downside, while 0.9130 caps near-term recovery attempts.

Risk-off sentiment continues to prevail in today’s Asia session, despite US President Trump’s assurance to provide naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil flow chokepoint, and the US International Development Finance Corporation's offer to provide insurance guarantees for energy transportation vessels.

Here are the intraday performances of key asset classes at the time of writing:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 3.8%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 2.6%
• China’s CSI 300 down 1%
• West Texas crude oil up 1.5% to around $76 per barrel
• Gold (XAU/USD) up 1.4% to around $5,160 per oz
• US Dollar Index up 0.1%
• Japanese yen almost unchanged at 157.55 per dollar
• Swiss franc almost unchanged at 0.7820 per dollar
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) down 0.2% to around 68,215

The ultimate aim is to mitigate a significant oil supply shock that can trigger an upward spiral in WTI crude to $100/barrel, in turn, creating a liquidity squeeze in the global markets (a less dovish Fed or worse still a hawkish Fed) that can see “undiscriminating” selling of all asset classes that rally significantly in the past year such as precious metals (gold and silver), Asia Pacific equities (e.g., South Korea’s KOSPI 200 that recorded a whopping year-to-date gain of 48% as of 27 February 2026).

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran

Fig. 1: Probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 as of 1 February 2026 (Source: Polymarket, MacroMicro)

Market participants are still concerned that the ongoing US-Iran war may prolong with a higher risk of oil supply disruption that increases the odds of a global recession.

The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iran, and a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade and a fifth of the LNG trade must pass through, making it one of the most critical maritime energy chokepoints globally.

Based on the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket as of 4 March 2026, as compiled by MacroMicro, the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has continued to increase to 70.35% from 68.25% a day earlier on 3 March when Trump highlighted his assurances on insurance guarantees and naval escorts for oil tankers passing through it (see Fig. 1).

The Swiss franc has started to reverse losses from Monday

Fig. 2: 1-day rolling performances of major currencies against USD and EUR/CHF as of 4 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Despite the risk of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervening on Monday, 3 March to slow down the pace of appreciation of the Swiss franc, which has rallied remarkably (up by 5% from 16 January 2026 to 27 January 2026 against the US dollar) before last Saturday’s first joint missile strike in Iran by the US and Israel, the CHF has started to gain some footing as the Swiss franc is now up by 0.2% against the euro and almost unchanged when paired with the US dollar on a 1-day rolling performance basis (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/CHF from a technical analysis.

EUR/CHF – Looking poised for a bearish drift towards 0.9010

Fig. 3: EUR/CHF minor trend as of 4 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 4: EUR/CHF medium-term as of 4 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the EUR/CHF have continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel in place since 14 January 2026 high (as seen from its 1-hour chart).

Watch the 0.9130 short-term pivotal resistance, with a bearish bias towards the 0.9010 key medium-term downside trigger level (see Fig. 3).

A break below 0.9010 may unleash another round of multi-week bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.8990 and 0.8960 in the first steps.

However, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.9130 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.9150 and 0.9180.

Key elements to support the bearish bias on EUR/CHF

• Price actions have staged a bearish reaction right at its downward-sloping 20-day moving average (see Fig. 3).
• The hourly MACD trend indicator has continued to trend downwards below its centreline which suggests the minor downtrend phase of the EUR/CHF remains intact (see Fig. 3).
• The daily RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a pull-back resistance at around the 44 level, which indicates a lack of medium-term bullish momentum, lowering the odds of a medium-term bullish reversal on the EUR/CHF (see Fig. 4).

The Middle East conflict is deepening. Energy facilities, embassies, airports and other civilian targets are being hit from both sides — the US/Israel and Iran.

Energy and gas prices continue to move higher. Bonds and equities are being unloaded from portfolios in favour of the US dollar, as even typical safe-haven assets like gold are not meeting investors’ protection needs. Gold, for example, was down more than 4% yesterday, even as headlines grew uglier by the hour.

European stocks were again under aggressive selling pressure, with the Stoxx 600 tanking 3% during the session. Even in the FTSE 100, gains in energy names couldn’t counterweigh heavy losses across banks and commodities. Mining stocks like Fresnillo and Antofagasta — the stars of the latest rally — both fell more than 5% yesterday. Better-than-expected results from Fresnillo — supported by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and geopolitical tensions involving the US, China, Russia and Venezuela that have boosted gold prices — couldn’t provide a floor. Meanwhile, Lloyds and Barclays shed around 3%, and HSBC tanked 5%.

Bank stocks are falling amid rising private credit stress. That is partly linked to the earlier software selloff across global markets on concerns that AI could disrupt business models to the extent of posing an existential risk to some companies.

Interestingly, despite the global turmoil, software stocks are rebounding. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF, for example, jumped 1.63% yesterday — but the damage is partly done. The earlier selloff led to notable outflows from private credit funds. Blackstone announced yesterday that it would redeem a record 7.9% of shares from its flagship private credit fund. At this stage, funding stress is more likely than AI to take down a number of these software companies.

The good news — if one can call it that — is that the stress in private credit is not comparable to the subprime crisis. The implications are therefore more likely to resemble previous periods of bank stress rather than the systemic shock of 2008. Still, the timing is far from ideal.

In the US, yesterday’s session started deeply in the red, but sentiment improved as oil prices pulled back from earlier peaks — similar to Monday. The trigger was news that the US would escort and insure tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to partly offset potential energy disruptions. US indices retraced earlier losses to close with smaller declines than their European and Asian peers. That said, it doesn’t change the broader picture, and selling pressure is unlikely to reverse unless tensions ease rapidly or energy prices fall sustainably.

US futures are in negative territory this morning, while Asian indices are under pressure again. The Nikkei is down 2.30% at the time of writing, the CSI 300 is down more than 1%, the Hang Seng is lower by around 2.80%, while the Kospi is down more than 11% today. Interestingly, DAX and FTSE futures are showing minor gains, but those gains are likely to remain fragile as uncertainty persists and sellers may outnumber dip buyers.

If global equity markets are being battered, there is a reason: rising energy prices are pushing up global inflation expectations at a time when inflation had not yet fully retreated in many economies. That, in turn, is triggering a hawkish shift in central bank expectations, pushing sovereign bond prices lower and yields higher. The higher energy prices go — and the longer they remain elevated — the greater the consequences for global growth.

It is therefore surprising to see US markets reacting only modestly to developments in the Middle East.

US gasoline prices are up 17% since mid-February and around 50% since the start of the year, reaching $2.50 per gallon. Some expect prices at the pump to rise to $3.25–$3.50 in the coming weeks.

If that materialises, upcoming rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) could quickly be taken off the table. Even Mr Walsh’s hope that AI could temper inflation would offer little relief if energy prices continue to rise — especially given that AI is energy-intensive. As a result, this week’s US jobs data may take a back seat to war headlines. Investors will still watch today’s ADP report, which is expected to show that the US economy may have added around 50K private jobs in February, but without major consequences for broad price action.

Elsewhere, preliminary euro area CPI data for February came in higher than expected. Both core and headline readings rose, whereas analysts had anticipated stable prints. Part of the renewed price pressure likely reflects higher energy prices, suggesting that upcoming inflation readings may also disappoint.

The speed of the energy price increase recalls the early months of the Ukrainian invasion and the severe consequences that Europe is still feeling, as that conflict has never fully ended.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Europe has relied heavily on LNG imports from the US and Qatar. If those LNG flows are also disrupted while pipeline imports from Norway and North Africa remained stable, gas prices could spike significantly. The move in TTF futures reflects the scale of concern as Europe may enter the refill season with storage levels unusually low for the end of winter. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage stood at about 29% full as of February 28 — well below typical seasonal levels. These low inventories leave Europe with a smaller buffer heading into the injection season, increasing vulnerability should LNG or pipeline flows be disrupted and complicating efforts to rebuild reserves ahead of next winter.

How far could gas prices go? At the peak of the Ukraine-invasion led spike, TTF futures traded at levels more than ten times higher than pre-Middle East crisis norms — illustrating how extreme price moves can become under severe – and prolonged - supply stress.

In focus today

In the euro area, we will receive the January unemployment data and the final February PMIs. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 6.2% due to continued employment increases in Southern Europe. The final PMIs are likely to confirm the flash release which surprised positively in a sign of moderate growth.

Switzerland's February inflation data is set for release this morning, with markets expecting CPI to rise 0.5% m/m (-0.1% y/y), following January's -0.1% m/m (0.1% y/y). EUR/CHF recently saw v-shaped price action as the SNB verbally intervened to address excessive Franc appreciation. Sight deposit data and inflation remain key focus points.

In Sweden, services PMI has declined over the past two months, from 58.9 in November to 54.3 in January. Despite the decrease, Sweden appears relatively strong compared to both Europe and the US. A result exceeding the previous month would emphasize Sweden's relative strength, but keep in mind that the services PMI is much more volatile than the manufacturing PMIs.

In the afternoon, US ISM Services and ADP private sector employment report are both due for release for February. ADP's weekly estimates have pointed towards recovering jobs growth over the reference period. The flash PMI indicated that services sector business activity growth remained mostly steady in February.

In Poland, the National Bank is set to announce its policy rate decision. Both we and markets anticipate a 25bp cut, lowering the rate to 3.75%.

This morning, we published our Nordic Outlook - Green shoots, 4 March, with new economic forecasts globally and for the Nordic countries. The Nordic economies stand to improve in somewhat different ways, with more domestic growth in Denmark, Sweden and to some extent Finland recovering, and inflation cooling in Norway. The global economic situation is turning slightly more positive from an already decent near-term outlook. The sharp escalation of the war between Iran and the US and Israel in recent day has, at the time of writing, caused only a moderate increase in oil prices. We have lifted our inflation forecast in the euro area, but we still expect the ECB to remain unchanged at 2.00%.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

China's February PMIs showed strong momentum, with manufacturing conditions improving at the fastest rate in over five years and services expanding at a 33-month high. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 from 50.3, driven by new orders and output, while the services PMI surged to 56.7, boosted by customer demand. However, the Chinese New Year likely distorted the data, and upcoming months will provide a clearer picture. Moderately positive holiday spending signals suggest some upside to services, despite subdued business sentiment. However, the official PMI from NBS fell to 49.0 in February, highlighting ongoing struggles for factory orders.

What happened yesterday

In energy markets, prices continued to climb as Middle Eastern strikes intensified, with European gas prices closing at 54 EUR/MWh, up 22% d/d. Tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz remains almost completely paused amid heavy air strikes for the fourth consecutive day. US President Donald Trump stated that the US Navy would protect vessels "if necessary" to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy, while also considering military protection and insurance backing for tankers in the region, as reported by Politico. French President Macron echoed these concerns, announcing plans to build a coalition to reopen and protect shipping routes. Despite these measures, experts warn they may not be sufficient to restore confidence among shipping firms, particularly given Iranian threats to target vessels navigating the strait. Brent oil prices came off earlier highs, settling at 81.4 USD/bbl, as easing tensions followed reports of potential US intervention to stabilise tanker traffic. Additionally, the EIA is set to release its Weekly Petroleum Data tomorrow, which could offer insights into whether the US may begin selling off its strategic petroleum reserve in the coming weeks.

Trump and EU, Trump threatened to cut all trade ties with Spain after the Spanish PM openly criticised US military actions and reportedly refused to allow the use of Spanish bases. During his visit, German Chancellor Merz asserted that Spain, as part of the EU, must be included in any trade agreement between the US and the EU.

In the euro area, HICP inflation rose to 1.9% y/y in February, above expectations, up from 1.7% y/y. Core inflation also exceeded forecasts at 2.4% y/y (cons: 2.2%), with core services inflation rebounding 0.4% m/m s.a., confirming January's 0.1% m/m s.a. dip was temporary. While the Winter Olympics in Italy contributed to the inflation surprise, momentum in core inflation remains aligned with the ECB's targets. Headline inflation undershooting the 2% target by less than expected supports the unchanged policy rate. We now expect euro area inflation to reach 2.0% y/y in March and 2.2% in Q2 due to rising European gas prices. However, the ECB is likely to look past this temporary headline inflation rise, given underlying disinflation and futures pricing indicating a short-term spike in oil and gas prices.

In the UK, the Spring Statement revealed the OBR's latest economic forecasts. GDP growth is projected at 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.4% forecast in November, while forecasts for 2027-28 have been revised upward. Inflation is expected to fall faster than previously thought, reaching 2.3% this year. Unemployment is now forecast to peak at 5.3%, up from the previous 4.9% estimate. Fiscal headroom has been revised higher, increasing by GBP 2bn (from GBP 21.7bn to GBP 23.6bn), providing some relief to Gilt markets.

Equities: Global equities sold off materially yesterday, with price action increasingly dominated by energy markets. The direction and intra-equity rotation continues to be dictated by oil, and to an increasing extent European gas, rather than by traditional macro factors.

Notably, despite a roughly 5% increase in crude yesterday (and an additional ~2% higher this morning), the energy sector declined. This is an important signal. Markets appear to be shifting from focusing on the short-term inflationary impulse of higher energy prices toward the negative growth externalities. In other words, the macro drag is beginning to outweigh the temporary inflation boost.

We are also observing early signs of correlation shifts. The price action is gradually resembling a more classical risk-off configuration, rather than the inflation-hedge regime that initially followed the energy spike.

In the US session, equities staged a partial recovery after remarks from Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron regarding security guarantees for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The VIX retraced from an intraday high near 28 back toward 23 by the close.

Asian markets are weaker this morning, with a delayed but pronounced adjustment. While the region is not directly involved in the conflict it remains structurally exposed as a large net importer of oil, including Iranian supply.

The epicentre is South Korea. The KOSPI is down close to 10% intraday, triggering temporary circuit breakers. However, this needs to be contextualised against the extraordinary gains year-to-date and over the past ten months. The speed of the decline points to forced deleveraging and margin calls rather than a pure geopolitical repricing. The Iran-related risk-off impulse has acted as the catalyst for unwinding prior exuberance.

Elsewhere in Asia, price action is negative but less disorderly. European futures are marginally positive this morning, while US futures trade modestly lower.

FI and FX: Yesterday, there was a bit of "retracement" in the global fixed income market after Trump stated that the US Navy will support and protect the oil tankers sailing through the strait of Hormuz. Hence, 10Y US government bond yield declined some 5bp yesterday afternoon, but this morning we have seen a very modest increase in US Treasury yields in Asian trading given the uncertainty on how long the war between US/Israel and Iran will last. EUR/USD also stabilised around the 116-level and has been stable in Asian trading this morning.

The pressure on the energy market continued to grow yesterday where both the oil and the European gas price rose further. The market fears that the supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz will drag out. The US offers assistance with insurance and escort of ships through the Strait, which, if successful, might help contain further price increases.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8677; (P) 0.8708; (R1) 0.8726; More…

EUR/GBP's extended fall and break of 0.8705 support argues that rebound from 0.8611 has already completed at 0.8788. The pattern from 0.8863 could already be in the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8611 support. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.8788 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 should confirm that it's reversing whole down trend from 0.9267. That should pave the way back to 0.9267. However, sustained break of 0.8611 support will indicate rejection by 0.8867 and indicate bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6410; (P) 1.6520; (R1) 1.6614; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6691 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside fro stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.7017). On the downside, firm break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will target 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.41; (P) 184.05; (R1) 184.58; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 184.75 will target 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 180.87 support will argue that fall from 186.86 is at least correcting whole rise from 154.77, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 186.86 are merely a near term corrective pattern. In other words, the long term up trend is still in progress. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 180.78 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.45; (P) 210.41; (R1) 211.59; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Corrective fall from 214.98 should have completed at 207.20 already. On the upside, above 212.10 will resume the rebound from 207.20 to retest 214.98 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.20 holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that price actions from 214.98 might be a near term consolidation pattern only. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, though, break of 207.20 will revive that case that it's already in a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9056; (P) 0.9092; (R1) 0.9117; More....

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 0.9026 short term bottom are viewed as a consolidations pattern only. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.9168 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9026 at 0.9167). Another fall below 0.9026 to resume the larger down trend is expected at a later stage. However, decisive break of 0.9167/8 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.9195) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.