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In focus today

In Germany, the ZEW indicator for April will be released. The assessment of the current conditions rose last month, while expectations took a historically large hit. As the oil price has declined and the German equity index is up compared to the survey period in March, we expect to see a partial rebound in expectations as this often follows movements in the DAX index while the current situation is likely to decline.

In the UK, we get the February/March labour market report. The previous report added 60K jobs compared to earlier estimates and a feared surge in the unemployment rate was also avoided. In this report, we will particularly take notice whether the decline in wage pressure is broken. The KPMG jobs report suggested wage pressures weakened in March, a key argument for keeping rates unchanged in the Bank of England. On the back of the continued disruption in energy markets, we have removed our expectations of rate cuts and see the BoE on hold for the coming year.

In the US, March retail sales data is released, marking the first hard consumer data since the onset of the war in Iran. February retail sales surprised to the topside but did not reflect possible negative sentiment effects from the war due to timing of data collection.

Also in the US, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at his confirmation hearing. A copy of his opening statement reveals that he will emphasise the importance of the Fed's autonomy, stating his commitment to ensuring monetary policy remains 'strictly independent' and that inflation and price stability remain key mandates for the Fed.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

Oil prices trimmed gains from the prior session following reports that Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations. Meanwhile, President Trump extended the current ceasefire to Wednesday evening Washington time, warning that further extensions are "highly unlikely" without a deal by then.

What happened yesterday

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised that the economic implications of the war in Iran have not yet reached the ECB's adverse scenario. Despite rising energy prices, there is no clear evidence of second-round effects to justify rate hikes. Lagarde's remarks suggest that the policy meeting on 30 April is likely too soon for any rate adjustments, as the central bank continues to gather more data. Last week, we tweaked our ECB call, pushing our expected rate hikes from April and June to June and July.

In Japan, Reuters sources said that "the BoJ is likely to hold off raising interest rates..." citing economic and price outlook uncertainty imposed by the war. We now expect the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged at the April meeting next week. While we think most conditions for a hike are still in place, the BoJ is unlikely to deliver any surprises. As such, we postpone our call for a rate hike to June, which markets currently price as a 50% probability, although this will largely depend on developments in energy markets.

In Canada, March headline inflation rose to 2.4% y/y (prior: 1.8%), slightly below expectations. The Bank of Canada's closely watched core measures remained stable, and Governor Macklem stated on Friday that the central bank is not concerned about a temporary rise in inflation expectations. The print is likely to be neutral for next week's Bank of Canada meeting, where we expect a rate hold in line with market pricing.

Equities: Global equities were somewhat lower yesterday in what initially seemed to be a complete reversal in terms of sector moves relative to Friday's risk-on. That said, late-stage optimism of both US and Iran heading for Pakistan today (latter still to be confirmed) supported risk sentiment with a slight cyclical tilt and the more yield sensitive small caps performing (reflecting strong bank performance). Semiconductors ended its long 13-day gain streak yesterday with a minor decline. Global equities ended 0.3% lower, S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 0.5% higher. Overnight, US futures and Asian indices are in green.

FI and FX: Renewed uncertainty regarding the ceasefire between US and Iran sent the oil price higher, equities lower and global bond yields modestly higher on Monday with the ceasefire deadline looming Wednesday evening in Washington. However, EUR/USD has remained even surprisingly steady near 1.18 despite the rapidly shifting situation in the Middle East. While we think that the odds of a quick resolution to the war remain low, and a prolonged conflict remains a key downside risk for the cross, moderating energy prices have at least partially eased the negative terms-of-trade shock for now. USD/JPY traded near 159 overnight, as the Iran war continues to weigh on the JPY, with Japan being a large net-importer of energy. The NOK is once again proving remarkably resilient to the setback in risk appetite amid higher energy prices and an empty domestic data calendar. EUR/NOK is consequently back down below the 11.00 figure. Focus for GBP is today on the release of the UK jobs report.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3492; (P) 1.3519; (R1) 1.3562; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.3379 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, firm break of 1.3379 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3158 low instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

The US markets are holding near record highs, not because conviction in de-escalation is strong, but because traders are unwilling to fade the possibility of last-minute progress or extension in US–Iran negotiations. The price action reflects hesitation rather than optimism, with risk assets supported but not advancing.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ hovered close to their peaks overnight, yet the lack of follow-through buying is telling. If markets were fully pricing a peaceful outcome, equities would be breaking decisively higher. Instead, they are consolidating gains, signaling a reluctance to commit.

This creates a distinct dynamic: not a risk-on rally, but a refusal to sell. Traders are effectively caught between rising geopolitical tension and a well-established pattern of brinkmanship followed by de-escalation. The result is positioning that is defensive rather than directional.

The credibility of deadlines has also eroded. The ceasefire, initially expected to expire on Tuesday, has effectively been extended into Wednesday following comments from US President Donald Trump. With multiple extensions already seen since mid-April, markets are increasingly treating deadlines as flexible rather than binding.

Two key assumptions underpin current resilience. First, negotiations could still take place. The reported departure of JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff for Islamabad suggests that talks remain a live possibility. This "high-level" deployment is what's keeping the peace trade alive—markets assume Vance wouldn't fly 14 hours if a "no-show" from Tehran was 100% certain.

Second, the possibility of another extension remains firmly in play. The pattern of repeated deadline shifts has conditioned markets to anticipate delay rather than escalation. This expectation is now embedded in positioning.

In the currency markets, Kiwi is currently the strongest one for the day so far, as boosted by increased RBNZ hike bet after Q1 CPI data. But outside of that, currencies are mixed. Loonie is the second strongest and then Dollar. Aussie is currently the worst, followed by Sterling, and then Euro.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.04%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.58%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.08%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.19%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.014 at 2.385. Overnight, DOW fell -0.01%. S&P 500 fell -0.24%. NASDAQ fell -0.26%. 10-year yield rose 0.004 to 4.250.

NZD/JPY to Resume Up Trend to 96.50 as Inflation Boosts RBNZ Rate Hike Bets

NZD/JPY is breaking higher as inflation pressures remain firm. With non-tradable prices holding up, markets are strengthening bets on an RBNZ rate hike later this year. The cross now looks ready to resume the medium term up trend towards 96.50 target. Read More.

NZ Inflation Holds at 3.1% as Non-Tradables Stay Firm, Energy Pressures Build

New Zealand inflation isn’t easing as expected. With CPI holding at 3.1% and non-tradable prices still firm, the data points to persistent domestic pressure—keeping RBNZ rate hike expectations alive. Read More.

New Zealand Business Confidence Slumps as Conflict Weighs, Inflation Pressures Rise, RBNZ July Hike Expected

New Zealand business confidence has dropped sharply as geopolitical tensions weigh on outlook—but pricing pressures are rising. With firms still lifting prices, NZIER sees the RBNZ moving toward a July rate hike. Read More.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3492; (P) 1.3519; (R1) 1.3562; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.3379 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, firm break of 1.3379 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3158 low instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

NZD/JPY surged as New Zealand inflation data reinforced expectations for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike later in the year, with markets responding to persistent price pressures despite soft demand signals. The technical setup suggests NZD/JPY is ready to resume its medium-term uptrend toward 96.50 target.

Q1 CPI came in stronger than expected, holding at 3.1% yoy, keeping inflation above the RBNZ’s target band and supporting the case for further policy tightening. More importantly, the composition matters. While tradable inflation eased slightly, non-tradable inflation held firm at 3.5% yoy, pointing to ongoing domestic price pressures that are harder for policymakers to ignore.

However, at the same time, the NZIER survey paints a more cautious picture on growth. Business confidence deteriorated sharply, and firms reported weak demand conditions, with limited ability to pass on rising costs. This dynamic acts as a natural constraint on inflation, reducing the urgency for immediate policy action.

For the RBNZ, the signal is nuanced. Inflation is firming and supports the case for tightening, but weak demand allows the central bank to move gradually. The base case remains for a hold at the May 27 meeting, with policymakers likely to use a higher OCR track to lay the groundwork for a hike in July or September.

Technically, NZD/JPY's rise from 90.55 resumed today by breaching 94.02 temporary top. The development reinforces that case that corrective fall from 94.96 has completed with three waves down to 90.55. That is, up trend from 79.79 might be ready to resume. For now, further rise is expected as long as 92.88 support holds. Retest of 94.96 should be seen next. Firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 85.33 to 94.96 from 90.55 at 96.50.

Key takeaways

• Hawkish RBNZ supports NZD upside: Stronger-than-expected inflation (3.1%) increases the likelihood of rate hikes, with bond yield spreads signalling a more hawkish stance that underpins NZD/USD.
• Bullish reversal taking shape: NZD/USD has rebounded from its 200-day moving average, breaking back above the 50-day MA, suggesting the recent 3-day decline may have ended.
• Key levels for continuation: Holding above 0.5846 keeps the bullish bias intact, with upside toward 0.5965–0.6030, while a break below this level risks a pullback toward 0.5800 and lower.

Annual inflation in New Zealand came in at 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026, unchanged from Q4 2026’s 1.5 year high but exceeded the consensus forecast of 2.9%.

The latest inflation print in New Zealand has continued to surpass the RBNZ (New Zealand central bank) long-term inflation target of 1%-3%, therefore increasing the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the RBNZ in July’s monetary policy meeting to bring the official cash policy rate higher to 2.50%. So far, the RBNZ has kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for two consecutive meetings since February 2026.

2-year NZ sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spread has started to price in a more hawkish RBNZ

Fig. 1: 2-year yield spread of New Zealand sovereign bond and US Treasury note medium-term trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The movement of the 2-year sovereign government bond yields is highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy guidance. Hence, the directional movement of the 2-year yield spread between the two countries’ sovereign bonds is likely to influence the foreign exchange rate of these two countries.

By looking at the current 2-year yield spread between New Zealand sovereign bonds and US Treasuries from a technical analysis perspective, it has traced out a major bullish reversal “Inverse Head & Shoulders” configuration since 9 January 2025 and traded above its 200-day moving average, which is acting as a key support at -0.45% (see Fig. 1).

Therefore, breaking above the neckline resistance of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders” at –0.09% is likely to see a further rally in the current 2-year yield spread between New Zealand sovereign bonds and US Treasuries (US Treasuries’ yield premium shrinkage), in turn, putting potential upside pressure on the NZD/USD rate.

Let us now examine the short-term outlook (1-3 days) of NZD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

NZD/USD – Bullish reversal at 0.5846 support

Fig. 2: NZD/USD minor trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Fig. 3: NZD/USD medium-term trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The price actions of the NZD/USD have pushed back up above its 50-day moving average after a retest of its 200-day moving average on Monday, 20 April 2026.

Watch the 0.5880/0.5846 key short-term pivotal support on the NZD/USD. A clearance above 0.5929 opens scope for a further potential short-term rally for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.5965 and 0.6015/0.6030 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 0.5846 invalidates the bullish scenario for a minor corrective pull-back to retest the 20-day moving average that is acting as the next intermediate support at 0.5800. A break below 0.5800 may trigger a deeper slide to expose 0.5725 next.

Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on NZD/USD

• Price actions of NZD/USD have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 7 April 2026 low of 0.5690 and still have room to maneuver towards the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel (see Fig. 2).
• NZD/USD has just shaped a 3-day (17 April, 21 April, and 22 April) bullish reversal candlestick condition on the retest of its key 200-day moving average, indicating the potential end of the minor corrective decline sequence from 15 April 2026 to 20 April 2026 (see Fig. 3).
• The daily RSI momentum indicator has shaped a higher low above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought region (above the 70 level) (see Fig. 3).

Dow Futures ended the correction against the cycle from the April 2025 low at 45,065, which we identify as wave (2). From that level, the Index began to rally higher in wave (3). To confirm the bullish sequence, it must break above the prior wave (1) peak at 50,611. Such a move would eliminate the risk of a double correction. Importantly, other major indices such as the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ) have already registered new highs, which reduces the probability of Dow Futures forming a double correction.

From the wave (2) low, wave ((1)) advanced to 47,090. A subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) found support at 46,076. The Index then nested higher, with wave (i) ending at 46,987 and wave (ii) retracing to 46,362. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 48,555, followed by a measured pullback in wave (iv) to 47,534. One more leg higher is expected to complete wave (v) of ((iii)). Afterward, the Index should correct the cycle from the April 2 low in wave ((iv)) before resuming its upward trajectory. Near term, the pivot at 45,065 remains critical. As long as this level holds, dips are expected to attract buyers. Support should emerge in three, seven, or eleven swing sequences, reinforcing the broader bullish outlook.

Dow Futures (YM) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

YM Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk_BO2TCFs0

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD extended gains and settled above the 1.3500 zone.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.3505 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD might attempt another increase if it clears 1.1850.
• Bitcoin corrected some gains from $78,000 and tested $74,000.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound climbed toward 1.3600 before correcting some gains against the US Dollar. GBP/USD dipped to 1.3500 and might soon resume upside.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 1.3500 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A low was formed at 1.3472, and the pair is now attempting another increase.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 1.3550 or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the 1.3599 swing high to the 1.3472 low.

The first major resistance sits at 1.3565. The main resistance could be 1.3600. A close above 1.3600 could open doors for gains above 1.3620. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3740.

Immediate support is seen near 1.3500. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3505. The next support could be 1.3475. A close below 1.3475 might push the pair toward 1.3420. The main support sits at 1.3380, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). Any more losses could initiate a fresh move to 1.3250 in the coming days.

Looking at Bitcoin, the price started a consolidation phase after the bears protected more gains above the $78,000 zone.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• UK Claimant Count Change for March 2026 – Forecast 21.4K, versus 24.7K previous.
• UK ILO Unemployment Rate for Feb 2026 (3M) – Forecast 5.2%, versus 5.2% previous.
• US Retail Sales for March 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +1.4%, versus +0.6% previous.

New Zealand’s CPI held steady at 3.1% yoy in Q1, above expectations of 2.9% and marking the highest level since Q2 2024, keeping it above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band for a second straight quarter. On a quarterly basis, CPI rose 0.9% qoq, slightly above forecasts, suggesting underlying pressures remain persistent despite expectations for easing earlier in the year.

The breakdown highlights a clear divergence between external and domestic inflation. Tradable inflation edged lower from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy, reflecting softer imported price pressures. In contrast, non-tradable inflation held firm at 3.5% yoy, with a 1.1% quarterly increase.

Energy played a key role in the latest pickup. Petrol prices rose 3.5% in the quarter, reversing earlier declines in January and February, while electricity prices surged 12.5% yoy, remaining the largest contributor to annual inflation for a third consecutive quarter. Even excluding petrol, CPI still rose 0.8% qoq, indicating that inflation pressures are not solely driven by energy.

For the RBNZ, the signal is uncomfortable. While core CPI remains relatively contained at 0.5% qoq and 2.6% yoy, the persistence in non-tradables and the continued influence of energy costs point to upside risks. With inflation still above target and domestic pressures holding firm, expectations for a July rate hike are likely to strengthen, particularly if second-round effects begin to emerge in coming months.

Full NZ CPI release here.

New Zealand business confidence deteriorated sharply in the March quarter, with the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showing the general business situation dropping from +39 to +1. The survey highlights how the US–Israel conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have quickly eroded sentiment despite earlier signs of recovery.

Domestic activity held up better than sentiment suggests. Firms reported trading activity over the past three months improving from -3 to 0, indicating stabilization in near-term demand. However, forward-looking indicators softened, with expected trading activity falling from +22 to +13, pointing to growing caution as external risks intensify.

At the same time, pricing pressures picked up notably. Average selling prices over the past three months rose from +13 to +22, while expectations for the next three months surged from +25 to +43. This suggests that while demand conditions are fragile, firms are still passing through higher costs, particularly from energy and supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict.

For policy, the signal is mixed but important. NZIER sees only "modest" risk of persistently high inflation, but emphasizes elevated uncertainty around energy prices and supply chains. The RBNZ is still expected to begin tightening with a 25 basis-point hike in July, with forward-looking inflation indicators likely to determine the timing.

Full NZIER QSBO release here.

NZ consumer prices were up 0.9% in Q1, with annual inflation unchanged at 3.1% The result was stronger than expected with firm underlying inflation.

Consumers Price Index, March quarter 2026

Headline inflation

• Quarterly change: +0.9% (prev: +0.6%)
• Westpac forecast: +0.7%
• Market median: +0.8%, range +0.7% to. +1.1%
• Annual change: +3.1% (prev: +3.1%)
• Westpac forecast: +2.8%, RBNZ: +3.0%, Market: +2.9%

Non-tradables

• Quarterly change: +1.1% (prev: +0.6%)
• Westpac forecast: +0.8%
• Annual change: +3.5% (prev: +3.5%)

Tradables

• Quarterly change: +0.7% (prev: +0.7%)
• Westpac forecast: +0.2%
• Annual change: +2.5% (prev: +2.6%)

Consumer prices rose 0.9% in the March quarter. That saw the annual inflation rate remaining unchanged at 3.1%.

The March quarter inflation result was above the 0.7% rise we were expecting, with surprises spread across tradable and non-tradable categories.

The result was also above the RBNZ’s updated forecast from their April policy update for 3% annual inflation.

Importantly, many measures of core inflation have continued to run at levels close to or above the top of the target band. For the RBNZ, that highlights the firm starting point for inflation even before the recent oil price shock.

What contributed to inflation in the March quarter?

Underpinning the March quarter rise in consumer prices were large increases in some specific areas.

• Food prices were up 1.5% over the quarter, underpinned by the usual seasonal increases in the price of fruit, as well as higher prices for confectionary (especially chocolates).
• Unsurprisingly, the other big category that has boosted inflation this quarter were transport costs. The sharp rise in oil prices over the past few weeks has left petrol prices up 3.5% over the quarter, with diesel prices up 11%. Notably, we also saw the early stages of spillovers from high fuel prices into other costs, with domestic airfares up 9% over the quarter.
• In addition to those factors, the March quarter also saw continued increases in electricity charges and the annual increase in the tobacco excise tax. There has also been a big rise in vehicle registration costs and health care costs (the later related to the annual roll-over in the subscription subsidy).

On the downside, we saw a fall in overseas holiday accommodation costs (-4%) and international airfares (-7%). Both of those declines are seasonal, and in the case of international airfares, we are likely to see large increases over the coming months.

On the housing front, rents were flat over the quarter. That was the weakest result since 2001. It’s particularly notable as the start of the year typically sees many rental agreements rolling over and larger increases in rents. This softness comes against a backdrop of low population growth and increases in housing supply, with particularly weak growth in areas like Wellington. We expect housing rental growth will remain muted for some time.

The March quarter also saw a modest 0.5% rise in the cost of a newly built home. Construction cost inflation has been muted for some time. However, there is growing pressure on materials costs, and that’s likely to flow through to larger increases in building costs later in the year.

Annual and core inflation

The annual inflation rate was unchanged at 3.1% in the year to March.

Looking under the surface, prices in the domestically oriented non-tradables group rose 1.1% over the quarter (above expectations). That saw annual non-tradables inflation remaining unchanged at 3.5%.

Non-tradables inflation has been lingering above historic averages. In part, that’s due to the continued large increases in administered prices, like electricity charges which rose 12.5% over the past year. However, prices in other areas have also been firm. Non-tradables excluding housing and utilities costs (which also omits rates) was 3.5% for the year (up from 3.4% at the end of last year). In seasonally adjusted terms, quarterly non-tradables inflation has been running at a rate 0.9% for most of the past year.

Tradables inflation was also hotter than expected in the March quarter (+0.7 qtr, +2.5% yr), with increases seen across a range of discretionary spending categories. That saw annual tradables inflation excluding food and fuel rising to 1.8% (up from 1.7% at the end of last year and the highest it's been since September 2023).

And over the coming quarters, tradable price inflation is set to accelerate sharply. As well as increase global fuel and transport charges, supply chain disruptions are already pushing up the prices for many imported goods.

While the past quarter did see large moves in a few specific areas like food and fuel prices, these aren’t the only areas where we’ve seen firmness in inflation. Despite dropping back over the past year, key measures of core inflation remain in the upper part of the RBNZ’s target band, and several have taken a step higher. (Note: core inflation measures smooth through the quarter-to-quarter swings in inflation and track the underlying trend in prices).

In terms of specifics:

• CPI ex-fuel inflation: +3.2% yr (vs +3.2% previously)
• CPI ex-fuel and food: +3.0% yr (vs +2.9% previously)
• 30% trimmed mean: +2.3%yr (vs +2.5% previously)
• Weighted median +1.6%yr (vs 1.7% previously)

That resilience in core inflation will be important for the RBNZ, highlighting the firm starting point for inflation even before the recent oil price shock

Outlook

This quarter’s result was really just the curtain raiser. Both we and the RBNZ now expect inflation will rise to over 4% in the June quarter. We’ve recently updated our forecasts and had assumed annual inflation would peak at 4.3% in the June quarter, before dropping back to 3.9% by the end of this year. Today's result suggests upside risk to those forecasts

The middle part of the year will see the full brunt of the recent rise in oil prices, as well as related increases in transport and other costs. There will also be a big focus the various survey gauges of forward cost and pricing pressures over the next few months, which will be closely watch for signs of a more enduring lift in inflation.