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US crude falls sharply this morning, nearly 3% at the time of writing, after approaching the 200-DMA yesterday near $62.50pb, following reports that the killings stopped and the US said it may hold off on military action for now. Silver fell more than 5%, while gold saw a more moderate pullback — under 1% from its all-time high this morning. Copper futures are down by up to 1.76% from ATH levels, as well.

Even though concerns around Iran seem to be easing, tensions remain. Encouraging headlines have triggered a pullback in commodities that had seen safe-haven inflows. However, the broader “debasement trade” — driven by political and geopolitical uncertainty and White House policy moves — is likely to continue, keeping pressure on the US dollar, Treasury yields and potentially US equities.

Trade tensions have receded into the background given the stronger geopolitical headlines since the start of the year, but negotiations continue. The Supreme Court, for example, again delayed ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs yesterday. Meanwhile, the US approved the sale of Nvidia H200 chips to China, but also announced a 25% tariff on these exports.

Under the new order, the US government will collect 25% fee when H200 chips are imported from TSMC in Taiwan into the US before final shipment to Chinese customers or other foreign markets.

Is this bad news for Nvidia? Not necessarily. China does not currently have a chip as advanced as the H200, and the country may want to import these chips until domestic alternatives close the gap. But political risks exist on both sides: the US imposes tariffs, while China has recently ordered its customs authorities to halt imports of H200 chips, aiming to support its domestic chip industry. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has stated that the company assumes Chinese sales will remain zero for the foreseeable future, so any sales there would be a bonus. Demand outside China remains robust, and upcoming earnings will provide a clearer picture.

On the earnings front, TSMC, which manufactures Nvidia chips, surpassed Q4 expectations, with revenue up more than 30%, exceeding both its own guidance and the 25% analyst forecast. Strong AI demand is driving this growth. Despite the positive earnings, TSMC shares are down more than 1% this morning due to the new tariff news. The company plans to open six fabs in the US to manufacture chips locally and avoid import tariffs, but construction takes time. Building a leading-edge facility costs around $20bn, and running one in the US is 30–50% more expensive than in Taiwan, potentially impacting both TSMC’s margins and its clients’.

And there is another problem: the rules of the game for business remain unpredictable — whether in chips, healthcare, or credit cards — as tariffs and fees can change rapidly.

Diving deeper into short-term costs across tech: global technology companies, particularly data center operators, are facing rising prices for metals used in construction and operations. Copper prices on COMEX, for example, rose 50% last year, 90% since mid-July, and 200% since 2020.

The question is, what’s the impact on different tech companies?

For data center operators, rising input prices will naturally squeeze margins. But the ripple effects through the supply chain will depend on 1. How much of data center costs are passed to clients and 2. The price elasticity of the end customer.

Big data center providers including Google, Microsoft and Amazon will be feeling the heat as it would be costlier to build the data centers and run them. The bad news is that the data center revenue is the biggest growth engine for these companies. But the good news is that they represent only a part of these companies’ total revenues. ~78% of Google’s revenue comes from ads & software services. The cloud revenue stands for around 11% of the total revenue. As such, the impact of higher costs on data centers could be absorbed and have a marginal impact on overall profitability. Similar reasoning could be applied to Microsoft and Amazon.

Further down the line, for the chip designers like Nvidia and AMD, the impact would be less. These companies have high pricing power (little price elasticity) and very high margins – we’re talking about a more than a 73% gross margin for Nvidia in the latest quarterly results. And this setup will remain unchanged as long as the demand for AI chips remains this strong. Therefore the chipmakers’ ability to past additional costs on to their clients should help them defend their profit margins and keep them at a safe spot.

For the rest of the economy, the rising input costs will increase the cost of AI, but the impact on the overall sector growth remains to be seen. AI increases productivity, reduces costs. Gains will in many cases remain higher than the additional costs.

And frankly, for many tech and non-tech companies, man-made trade tensions, supply restrictions on important metals and tariffs represent a higher risk than the input prices.

In focus today

• In Germany, we receive the first full-year 2025 GDP estimate, which thereby gives the first indication of Q4 GDP growth. Note it is a very preliminary release with much data for Q4 lagging, but it will nevertheless give an indication of growth in the final quarter of the year.
• In the US, weekly jobless claims data and regional manufacturing indices from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve are scheduled for release.
• In Sweden, we receive the details of the unexpectedly low December inflation. Primarily the underlying inflation came in lower than expected at 2.3%, where prices for recreation and food could be two factors explaining the deviation. Today's details are important, but the inflation figure for January is likely to be more decisive for the outlook.
• In the UK, November GDP growth figures will be published. The economy has remained stagnant during the second half of the year so far, despite PMIs suggesting stronger growth. The composite PMI for November stands at 51.2, indicating mild expansion.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US, Trump announced a 25% tariff on certain AI chips, including the Nvidia H200 AI processor and a similar semiconductor, under a new national security order issued by the White House. The move aims to bolster domestic semiconductor production and is part of a broader strategy to incentivise chipmakers to manufacture more semiconductors within the US, reducing reliance on producers in regions such as Taiwan. The tariff is narrowly targeted and will notably exclude chips intended for US data centres, startups, and non-data centre consumer applications.

What happened yesterday

In geopolitics, the meeting between Denmark, Greenland, and the US failed to resolve escalating tensions, as the US continued to insist on ownership of Greenland citing national security concerns. Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen described the discussions as marked by a "fundamental disagreement," with no change in the American stance. However, an agreement was reached to establish a high-level working group to explore a common path forward. In response to the overall situation, Denmark and Sweden announced the deployment of soldiers and military exercises in Greenland.

In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's government survived two no-confidence votes initiated by far-left and far-right parties, who criticised its handling of the EU-Mercosur trade deal approved last week. Lecornu argued that the focus on the no-confidence votes was further delaying critical debates on the country's 2026 budget, which remains unapproved. He warned that the chances of passing the budget by the end of January, as demanded by the President, are diminishing.

In the US, November retail sales exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6%, indicating that consumer spending remained strong heading into year-end. Meanwhile, producer price inflation (PPI) for November increased by 0.2% m/m, bringing the annual rate to 3.0% y/y, up from 2.8% in October. This suggests that price hikes accelerated for US-based businesses toward the end of 2025, potentially signalling that inflation has not yet peaked and consumer prices may soon increase at a faster pace.

The US Supreme Court did not issue any ruling on Trump's tariffs, the delay in issuing a ruling, despite rescheduling from last week, highlights the complexity surrounding the highly anticipated decision on President Trump's global tariffs.

In Sweden, household consumption rose by 1.0% m/m in November, resulting in a yearly increase of 3.5% y/y, aligning well with strong retail sales figures. The growth was broad-based, with the highest increases seen in recreation and culture, as well as furniture, furnishings, household equipment, and consumables. Additionally, new manufacturing orders surged by 11.8% m/m and 23.0% y/y in November, with the other transport equipment industry contributing the most to the overall increase.

In Poland, the central bank kept rates unchanged at 4.00%, in line with expectations. Previous communication has indicated that the easing cycle is nearing its end, though there is potential for one or two additional cuts in early 2026. However, any final easing is likely to await and depend on the next updated economic projections, scheduled for release in March.

Equities: Equities had a tough session yesterday at the face of it, but underneath some interesting dynamics continue to play out. S&P500 ended 0.5% lower, Nasdaq was -1% while Russell2000 was +0.7%. Defensives outperformed cyclicals, but when looking at the sector composition it was IT and consumer discretionary that posted significant negative returns of -1.4% and -1.8% respectively. The lack of SCOTUS opinion dragged discretionary lower. Asian markets are primarily in red this morning albeit US equity futures are broadly unchanged.

FI and FX: US yields moved lower yesterday amid a souring risk sentiment, with equity markets on the decline in the US and Asia overnight. The 10y UST now trades in the middle of the 4.10-4.20% range seen from early December. EUR/USD remained stable in the mid-1.16-1.17 range, with US retail sales and inflation data having little market impact. Oil prices are trading lower overnight, as President Trump indicates that he is holding off from attacking Iran for now. This in turn has reversed some of the NOK strength seen during yesterday's session. In Sweden, focus today is on the inflation details for December, although we doubt that there will be much price action in the krona.

Following the formation of a significant low at $80,537 on November 21, 2025, Bitcoin has traded in a sideways-to-upward trajectory. The advance from this level is unfolding as a double three corrective structure under the Elliott Wave framework. Within this formation, wave (W) concluded at $94,172, followed by a pullback in wave (X), which ended at $84,398. The subsequent wave (Y) is currently in progress and is itself subdividing into a smaller-degree double three structure.

From the termination of wave (X), wave W of the lesser degree completed at $94,792. A corrective decline in wave X followed, bottoming at $89,190. The ongoing wave Y is developing as a zigzag structure labeled ((a))-((b))-((c)). Within this sequence, wave ((a)) is unfolding as an impulsive five-wave move. Specifically, wave (i) ended at $92,392, while wave (ii) retraced to $90,016. Wave (iii) extended higher and reached $97,939.

A pullback in wave (iv) is anticipated to correct the cycle from the January 12, 2026 low before the final push higher in wave (v) completes wave ((a)). In the near term, as long as the pivot at $89,222 remains intact, dips are expected to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings, favoring further upside continuation.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 60 minute chart

BTCUSD Elliott Wave video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVf2sGp6fJo

Key Highlights

• Ethereum started a recovery wave above $3,200 and $3,300.
• ETH is now trading above a bullish trend line with support at $3,000 on the daily chart.
• Bitcoin price gained bullish momentum and settled above $95,000.
• XRP recovered above $2.15 but faces key resistance near $2.25.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Ethereum started a recovery wave above $3,000. The bulls were able to push ETH above $3,150 and $3,200 before they faced hurdles.

Looking at the daily chart, the price started a decent increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,754 swing high to the $2,616 low. The price even surpassed $3,300 before it faced resistance near the 100-day simple moving average (red).

Immediate resistance sits near $3,400. The first key resistance could be near the $3,550 level. The main hurdle for the bulls sits near the 200-day simple moving average (green) at $3,650. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,754 swing high to the $2,616 low is also near $3,685.

A daily close above the $3,685 resistance zone could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $3,800 level.

On the downside, the bulls might be active near $3,220 and $3,200. The main support is now forming near $3,000, below which the price could slide toward $2,880. Any more losses might call for a move toward $2,620.

Looking at Bitcoin, there was a decent increase, and the bulls were able to push the price above the key resistance at $95,500.

Economic Releases

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 215K, versus 208K previous.
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for Jan 2025 – Forecast 1, versus -3.9 previous.

Today's Beige Book showed that the overall economic activity improved during the latest reporting period (information collected on or before January 5th 2026). Across the twelve Fed Districts, eight Districts reported slight-to-modest growth (up from one in November), one noted a modest decline (down from two in November), and the remaining three saw no change (down from nine in November). The report noted that this performance marks an improvement from the previous three report cycles where majority of Districts reported no change. Some of the rebound in activity at the end the 2025 is likely due to the ending of the government shutdown.

Most districts reported "slight to modest growth" in consumer spending. The report also noted the K-shaped nature of the consumer spending with stronger spending among higher-income consumers, and increased price sensitivity and hesitancy to spend by low- and middle-income consumers. Residential real estate activity softened in most Districts, which runs counter to existing home sales data, which shows a pickup in sales in recent months.

Banking conditions were said to be "stable or improving", with increased credit demand for home equity loans, credit cards, and commercial loans.

The labor market remained stable, with employment mostly unchanged. This is consistent with the modest pace of hiring in November and December. Firms were reported to rely more on temporary workers "to stay flexible in uncertain times" and were mostly backfilling vacancies rather than creating new positions. Encouragingly, even as many firms were exploring AI implementation, the report notes that "AI's current impact on employment was limited" with more significant effects expected in the coming years. Wage growth was moderate, returning to "normal" levels as labor market cooled off.

There was little change on the inflation front. Prices grew at a moderate pace, unchanged relative to the previous reporting period. Cost pressure due to tariffs also remained a consistent theme across Districts. Some firms were starting to pass higher costs via higher prices to consumers, but others – particularly in retail and restaurant industries – were hesitant to do so for the fear of alienating price-sensitive consumers.

Key Implications

The anecdotal evidence from today's Beige Book report points to a rebound in economic activity at the end of last year as the government reopened. Recent economic data also suggests that the impact of the lengthy government shutdown was smaller than feared. Recent reports on retail sales, inflation and employment have been encouraging, painting a picture of relative resilience across key economic indicators during the turbulent fourth quarter.

Taken together with other economic data points, today's report provides policymakers with further reassurance that the economy stabilized at the end of the year while price pressures remained contained. This supports the case for a "pause" on rate cuts until the summer.

NZDJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• NZDJPY reversed down from the resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 90.00

NZDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the pivotal resistance level 91.35 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 3 at the end of December) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star Doji.

Given the strength of the resistance level 91.35 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, NZDJPY currency pair cryptocurrency can be expected to fall to the next support level 90.00 (which reversed the previous correction 4).

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin broke resistance area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 100000.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently broke the resistance area between the pivotal resistance level 95000.00 (which has been reversing the price from November) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from November.

The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active impulse wave iii – which belongs to the medium-term impulse wave B from November.

Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next major resistance level 100000.00 (former support from June and November).

The latest Beige Book from the Fed showed US economic activity improving modestly, with eight of twelve Districts reporting growth at a "slight to modest pace". Three Districts saw no change and one reported a modest decline, marking a better backdrop than recent cycles where stagnation dominated.

Consumer spending firmed modestly, supported by the holiday shopping season, while business activity presented a mixed picture. Manufacturing remained uneven, with five Districts reporting growth and six citing contraction.

Labor market conditions were "mostly unchanged". Eight Districts reported flat hiring, though multiple contacts noted increased use of temporary workers as firms seek flexibility amid uncertainty. Wage growth continued at a "moderate pace", with several businesses saying wage pressures have normalized.

Price pressures remained elevated, rising at a moderate pace across most Districts. Tariff-related cost increases were a common theme, and while firms expect "some moderation in price growth ahead", many anticipate prices will stay high as they pass through accumulated cost increases.

Full Fed's Beige Book here.

• After yesterday's not-so-bullish CPI trading (despite a positive report), US Indexes are plummeting.
• The move reflects overbought conditions amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing diversification
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Yesterday sent a clear warning shot to US Traders: even a positive CPI report—arguably the Fed's primary concern—failed to hold the bid.

Indexes finished in the red, leaving sell-the-news hints.

And that hesitation is materializing into a full-blown pullback in today's session.

Nasdaq is leading US Indexes in their fall, down 1.50% as I write this.

After the relentless Freedom Rallies across equities last week, the market shrugged off everything, including the unprecedented investigation into Chair Powell.

However, the escalating tensions in Iran are now being used as the pretext for a significant selloff in equities.

On paper, the past week rally made perfect sense: record low credit spreads, record high bond issuance (signaling robust economic confidence), and solid earnings from early reporters all supported the bull case.

But the tone has shifted.

With Oil bouncing above $62—up 10% since the Maduro capture—volatility has returned, and it is rarely an investor's best friend.

As JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon noted, geopolitical risk remains the single biggest headwind for equities across asset classes.

This focus naturally overshadows Black Swan risks, such as potential credit distress or fears of an AI peak – Keep a close eye on those throughout 2026.

Current picture for the Stock Market (11:39 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 14, 2026

Looking at the tape today, the Magnificent 7 are taking a hit, with losses ranging from -0.85% for Google to -2.30% for Nvidia. The broader market picture isn't faring much better.

Energy stocks are the lone outperformers, profiting from the WTI surge despite high inventory levels. Outside of the oil patch, capital is rotating strictly into defensive havens, with Household Products and select Healthcare names holding the line.

Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Dow Jones 4H Chart

Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Dow Jones is suddenly turning bearish after yesterday's All-Time High fakeout.

Now breaking its 2026 rising channel and passing below its 4H 50-Period MA, momentum is turning bearish – Confirmed with the descending RSI.

As the selloff attempts to ram through the 49,000 Psychological, look at the November Channel lows:

• Bouncing from there could provide a decent dip-buying opportunity if sentiment gets better
• The Channel and 48,600 Support Zone breaks, hinting at pursued downside (which could lead to 45,000 being retested)
  • Still far but this scenario is rising in probability. Be careful for extreme long positions.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 49,151 4H 50-MA
• Short-term Resistance 49,200 to 49,300
• 49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH Resistance
• 46,710 All-Time Highs
• 50,000 Potential Psychological Resistance

Support Levels

• 48,600 to 48,800 Major Support and November Channel Lows
• Psychological Support at 48,000
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq 4H Chart

Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The picture is looking very grim for Nasdaq despite its stronger performance yesterday:

Bears are now fully in control after a double top fakeout at the CPI release and a break of its 2026 upward trendline.

Looking out, it seems that the Nasdaq is stuck in a 24,700 to 25,800 large consolidation, but as Supports are breaking, keep a close eye on Higher Timeframe charts to see if things materialize into something worse.

On the immediate picture, the selloff is showing oversold on the 4H CPI – Hence, look at whether a pullback higher comes at the 25,500 Minor Support or if lower consolidation points to continued downside.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 4H MA 200 (25,480)
• intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 Fakeout
• Momentum Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 pts
• Session highs 25,877
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
• Current ATH 26,182

Support Levels

• Minor Support 25,000 to 25,250 (immediate test)
• 25,850 Mini Support
• 24,500 Main support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 4H Chart

S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Now rejecting its 7,000 new Major All-Time Highs, the S&P 500 picture is also looking grim.

Bulls will face a key test at the 6,880 to 6,900 Psychological Pivot after breaching the 4H 50-MA (6,935).

Breaking below will lead to a fully bearish price action.

Holding there would hint at a simple yet scary retracement.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 50 MA at 6,935
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH Resistance at 7,000

Support Levels

• Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Session lows 6,893
• 6,800 Psychological Support
• Support 6,720 to 6,750
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades!