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• Oil explodes higher from Iran tensions and supply fears
• Exploring Technical Analysis for a rally in the commodity
• WTI faces headwinds of catalysts across the globe, with Venezuela and the Middle East

2026 is shaping up to be a chaotic year for traders.

Between record corporate issuance signaling high-paced economic activity, the US capture of a head of state in Venezuela (combined with threats to other nations), and now revolts in Iran, geopolitics has firmly taken the lead in driving volatility.

Our recent edition on Black Gold suggested that despite higher supply expectations following the Maduro capture—which pointed toward better exploitation of Venezuela's vast reserves—structural catalysts would emerge to prevent a slide to fresh 2025-2026 lows.

And emerge they did.

The biggest catalyst, of course, is the turmoil in Iran.

Despite sanctions from OECD countries, Iran remains a critical supplier to the world's largest consumers, particularly China, which regularly absorbs 80% to 90% of the nation's ~4M barrels per day production.

The risk premium, however, extends beyond simple production figures which haven't shown much change for now.

Iran holds immense strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point they have used to block oil tankers and global sea traffic in the past.

This threat adds a geographic premium to the price of every barrel, even if domestic production continues uninterrupted.

Looking back to the "12-Day War," WTI surged from $62 to $76 in a matter of days. With that precedent in mind, traders are actively positioning themselves for a potential price explosion.

Looking back to the 1979 revolution, participants fear that Oil workers may join the Revolt, as the Iranian government already killed an estimated +10,000 civilians in the protests.

Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the WTI (US) Oil to determine if technicals point to continued upside or if prices are approaching relative extremes.

US Oil Multi-Timeframe Analysis

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Oil Daily Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView

WTI has officially broken out of its major descending channel that led the price action from after the 12-War to the current rally.

Now forming a tight-bull daily channel, bears have disappeared from the immediate action as the risk-premium takes over.

A tight bull channel occurs when green candles succeed one after the other. The pattern breaks if a bear candle closes below the previous.

There won't be anything to stop the rally until the 200-Day Moving Average at $62.43.

To see what the next step will be:

• Can bulls manage a break above the 200-Day MA? To assume so, look for a daily close above the indicator
  • A break without retest would point to even more bull pressure
• Will sellers re-appear at the MA? If they do so, look for long entries at the Pivot Zone retest ($60.00 to $60.50)

WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels

WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView

Reactions will be interesting around here as the price action reaches overbought levels on the 4H RSI.

The morning rally is stalling slightly which prompts either consolidation or retracement – No retracements hints at further one-way continuation.

In the event of a correction, look at $60.80 for short-term entries, lows of the Tight Bull Channel.

WTI Technical Levels

Levels to place on your WTI charts:

Resistance Levels

• $62.13 Session Highs
• $62.43 200-Day MA (to break for real breakout)
• Next Resistance May 2025 Range $63 to $64
• Key September Resistance $65 to $66

Support Levels

• $60.80 Aggressive Support (intraday)
• $60.50 Pivot Zone retest Support
• $59 Pivot Zone lows
• $55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows

30M Chart and Trading Setups

WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView

The rally is stalling and consolidating at its relative highs.

With the action rangebound on short-timeframes, remain patient for these three signs:

• 30M RSI corrects back to the Neutral Level (40)
• Bulls manage to break above session highs ($62.13) with volume, pointing to a 200-Day MA test – Very bullish above
• Breaks manage a correction to $60.80
  • Breaking below would lead at least to $60.00

Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!

USDJPY eases from new multi-month high (159.45, the highest since mid-July 2024) on Wednesday.

The news that Japan’s PM is to call snap election in February, further deflated yen, but the following comments from Fin Min about intervention against yen’s excessive losses, cooled the situation and lifted Japan’s currency.

As expected, the pair faced strong headwinds on approach to 160 level, where market participants speculate Japan’s authorities could intervene, to support weakening currency.

Daily technical studies remain bullish overall but fading positive momentum and stochastic about to exit overbought zone, show space for further easing.

Former tops at 157.89/76 offer initial support, followed by broken upper boundary of larger bull-channel (157.00) which should ideally contain dips, to guard the top of rising daily Ichimoku cloud (155.50).

Violation of 160 barrier (in case Japan’s authorities do not intervene) could spark stronger acceleration higher, as large number of stops has been placed above this level.

Res: 157.53; 157.89; 158.20; 158.87
Sup: 157.76; 157.00; 156.11; 155.50

Markets

Economic data, including key US labour market and inflation data, of late mostly failed to inspire any directional trading trends. Multiple (political) event risk, including the US military action in Venezuela, protests challenging the government in Iran, a flaring up of the fight on Fed independence and an expected ruling by the US supreme Court on president Trump’s tariffs, for now also fail to trigger any major market volatility. Or, are they seen as too unpredictable for investors to set up outright directional bets, especially in FX and interest rate markets? Until now this agnosticism also kept equity markets ‘paralyzed’ near record levels. Admittedly, anticipating that any of these risks would unsettle reigning risk-on sentiment didn’t yield anything. On the contrary. In this context, metals turned out to gain some kind of safe haven status, combining the feature of scarcity together with a narrative of LT indispensability to address needs related to energy transition and/or AI development. Underlying uncertainty on the dollar also supports the case for holding these metals. At least one regional ‘event risk’ was clarified today. According to the leader of the LDP party, Japanese PM Takaichi will call snap elections in the parliamentary session next week. Market anticipation that new elections would only reinforce Takaichi’s aim for ample deficit spending recently weight on both Japanese government bonds and the yen. The yen before the announcement at USD/JPY 159.45 touched the weakest level against the US currency since July 2024. A potential attack on the 160 barrier, at least of now, was blocked as both Fin Min Katayama and FX official Mimura warned they might take action as yen moves become excessive and not in line with economic fundamentals. The yen rebounded slightly to currently trade near USD/JPY 158.65.

In the US, both PPI producer prices (final demand at 0.2% M/M and 3% Y/Y, ex food and energy 0.0% M/M and 3% Y/Y) and November retail sales (0.6% M/M) printed on the stronger side of expectations, but hardly left any traces on interest rate markets. US yields are ceding 2-3 bps across the curve, probably driven by a mild risk-off. For EMU/Germans yields daily changes are less than 2 bps. Interesting as a pointer for investor appetite for sovereign credit, France today launched a €10 bln 20-y OAT (May 2046) at a spread of 5 bps over the May 2045 OAT and with books said to have been well in excess of € 100 bln! The Eurostoxx 50 (currently -0.2%) this morning even touched a minor now record. US indices show a more hesitant picture (S&P 500 -0.6%) as the earnings season kicks off with major US banks reporting. Investors also look out whether the US Supreme Court today will give an opinion on the Trump tariffs. Oil extends its rebound as markets are pondering the political developments in Iran, annex a potential reaction of the US. Brent oil at $66 p/b trades at the highest levels since end October and to be compared with a December low below $59 p/b. Except for the moves in the yen, there is very little to report on most other major FX cross rates. DXY eases slightly (99.05). EUR/USD is locked in a tight range near 1.165.

News & Views

Hungarian central bank (MNB) deputy governor Kirali pushed back against rapid rate cut bets after yesterday’s inflation numbers. Inflation slowed from 3.8% Y/Y to 3.2% Y/Y but the MNB is looking for a more consistent move towards the 3% target rather than the current one-off. He highlighted the importance of the central bank’s credibility and underscored the support of recent HUF stability in moderating inflation. On the political side, a new opinion poll with a margin of error of 3.5 ppt showed Hungarian opposition party Tisza extending its lead over PM Orban’s Fidesz party to 51% vs 39%. Back in November, Tisza had a 10-point lead for elections which have yesterday been set for April 12. Hungarian swap rates extend yesterday’s comeback, rebounding by up to 3 bps at the front end of the curve. EUR/HUF is unchanged at 386.50.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent today met with South Korean deputy PM and finance minister Koo Yun Cheol to discuss the critical minerals ministerial meeting and ongoing market developments in Korea. The latter centered around the recent depreciation of the Korean won which Bessent believes is not in line with Korea’s strong economic fundamentals. USD/KRW fell from recent highs/key resistance around 1480 towards 1470. Earlier today, Koo Yun Cheol said that the government will focus on improving economic fundamentals, short-term market measures and flow management to curb excessive one-way moves in the won.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1626; (P) 1.1652; (R1) 1.1669; More….

Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged as sideway trading continues, and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside break of 1.1742 resistance will argue that pullback from 1.1807 has completed. Rise from 1.1467 should then be ready to resume. Further break of 1.1807 will pave the way to retest 1.1817 high. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 1.1617 will target 1.1467 support. Overall, price actions from 1.1917 are seen as a corrective pattern that might extend further.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1416) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3397; (P) 1.3446; (R1) 1.3471; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as sideway trading continues and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3567 will resume the rally from 1.3008 towards 1.3787 high. On the downside, break of 1.3389 will resume the fall from 1.3567. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.3375) will argue that the decline is another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3787. In this case, deeper fall should be seen back to 1.3008 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3787 (2025 high) are seen as a correction to the larger up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 to bring rebound. Break of 1.3787 for up trend resumption is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7981; (P) 0.7998; (R1) 0.8029; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.7860 would target 0.8123 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7954 support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, corrective pattern from 0.7828 low is in progress and would extend further.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a correction. Larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is in still in progress. Break of 0.7828 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month (m/m) in November, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in October. The headline result was stronger than the consensus forecast, which called for a 0.4% m/m gain.

Non-core sales categories were all up on the month, reversing their declines in October. Sales of autos and parts rose by 1% m/m, while sales at gasoline stations increased by 1.4% m/m. Sales at building and garden retailers also improved (+1.3% m/m).

Sales in the "control group", which excludes the three above categories, also rose (+0.4%), although at a slightly slower pace than in October (+0.6% m/m). Strength was seen at clothing retailers (+0.9%), sporting goods (+1.9%), miscellaneous retailers (+1.7%) and non-store retailers (+0.4%). On the other hand, spending was little changed at food & beverage stores, and at electronics & appliance and furniture retailers.

Following a flat performance in October, spending at bars and restaurants rose by 0.6% in November. This is the only service category in the report.

Key Implications

Headline retail sales rebounded in November following a flat reading in the previous month. However, core sales were robust in both October and November, with consumers appearing to have largely shrugged off the impact of the government shutdown. Additionally, various private sector reports indicate that spending was resilient during December's holiday season. Taken together, this suggests that growth in consumer spending was likely stronger in Q4 of 2025 than our earlier tracking of 1.1% (annualized).

We expect consumer spending to remain robust at the start of 2026. Consumers should benefit from previous interest rate cuts as they feed through the economy, some stabilization in the labor market, and non-accelerating inflation. Households will also benefit from the fiscal boost stemming from the OBBBA, as higher tax refunds— which are expected to arrive between February and April—temporarily boost household income and spending.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.32; (P) 158.75; (R1) 159.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Retreat from 159.44 temporary top could extend lower. But downside should be contained above 156.10 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 159.44 will resume larger rise from 139.87. Next target is 200% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 161.95, which is close to 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.38 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Yen recovered broadly today after Japan delivered its strongest verbal intervention in months, temporarily slowing the currency’s slide. The shift in tone came as USD/JPY neared 160, its strongest level since July 2024, prompting officials to push back more forcefully against what they described as excessive moves.

Crucially, the rhetoric was aimed at speed and volatility rather than level. Japan has repeatedly stressed opposition to speculative, one-sided moves, without defining a red line or objecting to depreciation per se. That distinction matters for markets still aligned with a structurally weaker-Yen view.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities would “take appropriate action against excessive currency moves without excluding any options,” calling the recent swings “extremely regrettable” and out of line with fundamentals. The comments marked a clear escalation in language, even if no action followed.

Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura echoed the warning, describing recent moves as “one-sided and rapid.” Pressed on whether intervention was on the table, he declined to be specific, stressing that volatility and speculative behavior — not the exchange rate level — were the real concern.

Despite the firmer tone, Yen’s rebound should be treated more as a pause rather than a reversal. The so-called “Takaichi trade” remains firmly in force, with Japanese equities continuing to surge. The Nikkei hit another record today, underlining persistent risk-on sentiment tied to domestic politics.

That backdrop is political. It is now confirmed that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to dissolve parliament next week and call a snap election, seeking public backing for expansionary spending plans. Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Shunichi Suzuki said a fresh mandate is needed, noting that the public has yet to pass judgment on the current coalition arrangement. The prospect of fiscal stimulus continues to support equities and weigh on Yen.

Beyond Japan, central-bank independence is spreading as a sensitive global theme. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters publicly rebuked RBNZ Anna Breman for signing a statement in support of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, arguing the RBNZ should avoid involvement in US domestic politics.

The controversy followed a rare joint declaration by global central bank heads backing Powell and defending monetary independence. Peters said the governor should “stay in her New Zealand lane,” highlighting how politically charged the issue has become even outside the US.

Japan’s absence from the signatories also drew attention. According to government sources, the BoJ consulted officials informally but was unable to approve participation in time, reflecting election sensitivity and the delicate US relationship. Former BoJ board member Takahide Kiuchi said the episode highlight how the BoJ still operates within political constraints, even as it guards its neutrality.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.25%. DAX is down -0.37%. CAC is up 0.03%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.021 at 4.381. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.006 at 2.844. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.48%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.56%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.31%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.11%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.019 to 2.186.

US retail sales beat expectations with 0.6% mom growth in November

US retail sales posted a solid upside surprise in November. Headline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 735.9B, beating expectations of a 0.4% increase.

The gains were broad-based. Sales excluding autos increased 0.5% mom to USD 597.2B, also above forecasts of 0.4%. Sales excluding gasoline climbed 0.6% mom to USD 683.0B. The data suggests that underlying consumption momentum remains intact rather than being driven by volatile components.

On a quarterly basis, total retail sales for the September–November period were up 3.6% from a year earlier.

China's exports jump 6.9% yoy in Dec, US decoupling continues

China’s December trade data surprised to the upside, pointing to resilient external demand despite ongoing tariff tensions. Exports surged 6.6% yoy, more than double expectations of 3.0%. Imports rose 5.7% yoy, far exceeding forecasts of 0.9% and marking the strongest growth since September last year. The trade balance posted a USD 114.1B surplus, broadly in line with expectations.

However, the headline strength masked a deepening collapse in trade with the US. Shipments to the US plunged -30% yoy, extending a ninth straight month of contraction, while imports from the US fell -29% yoy. By contrast, China’s trade with other regions remained robust. Exports to the EU and ASEAN climbed 12% and 11% respectively. While imports from Europe jumped 18%. Imports from Southeast Asia declined -5%.

For the full year, exports grew 5.5% while imports were flat, driving China’s trade surplus to a record USD 1.19T, up 20% from 2024. Trade with the US weakened sharply amid tariff frictions, with exports down -20% and imports falling -14.6%.

Commenting on the data, General Administration of Customs spokesperson Lv Daliang called for dialogue and negotiation, stressing that China–US trade relations should remain mutually beneficial.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.32; (P) 158.75; (R1) 159.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Retreat from 159.44 temporary top could extend lower. But downside should be contained above 156.10 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 159.44 will resume larger rise from 139.87. Next target is 200% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 161.95, which is close to 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.38 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

US retail sales posted a solid upside surprise in November. Headline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 735.9B, beating expectations of a 0.4% increase.

The gains were broad-based. Sales excluding autos increased 0.5% mom to USD 597.2B, also above forecasts of 0.4%. Sales excluding gasoline climbed 0.6% mom to USD 683.0B. The data suggests that underlying consumption momentum remains intact rather than being driven by volatile components.

On a quarterly basis, total retail sales for the September–November period were up 3.6% from a year earlier.

Full US retail sales release here.