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Business confidence fell sharply after the Iran conflict, with the gloom deepening over the course of March.

Key results (seasonally adjusted)

• General business situation: +1 (Prev: +39)
• Trading activity, past three months: 0 (Prev: -3)
• Trading activity, next three months: +13 (Prev: +22)
• Average selling prices, past three months: +22 (Prev: +13)
• Average selling prices, next three months: +43 (Prev: +25)

Business confidence has unsurprisingly taken a knock since the Iran war kicked off at the end of February. Indeed, given the fast-moving situation, the headline results of the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion understate the degree of the shock. Firms noted ongoing cost pressures, and a growing number of them are intending to raise their prices, but their ability to do so remains mixed. Overall, today’s survey probably underscores rather than deepens the dilemma that the RBNZ will be facing in the coming months.

Sentiment about the general business situation fell from +39 to +1, the lowest reading since September 2024 – and that doesn’t come close to telling the full story. Surveying began on 6 March, and the initial batch of responses was a net 34% positive. After the first reminder in mid-March, the next batch was a net 7% negative, and the last batch at the end of March was a whopping net 57% negative. NZIER didn’t provide this breakdown for the other survey questions, but we can reasonably assume that there was a similar deterioration over the course of the month.

The own-activity measure for the last quarter actually picked up a little compared to the December survey, emphasising that the economy was regaining some momentum before the Iran war. Expectations for the next quarter fell from +22 to +13, though again the picture is likely to have looked significantly worse by the end of the survey period.

A net 37% of firms reported a rise in their costs, unchanged from last quarter. Expected costs for the next quarter were a net 45%, up from 39% in December – not a big increase, but this measure was already at elevated levels.

A net 22% of firms increased their prices last quarter, compared to 13% in December. More notably, a net 43% plan to raise their prices in the next quarter, the highest reading since September 2023. Firms’ ability to raise their prices remained mixed across sectors though: for instance, builders reported a sharp rise in costs but a net 25% lowered their own prices last quarter.

Employment was down a net 5% past quarter, after a brief pickup in December, and hiring intentions also turned negative again. That said, there is evidence of labour shortages emerging again for skilled roles, though not for unskilled ones.

• Silver, Gold and other metals are struggling to pick-up momentum despite lower Oil prices.
• The Ceasefire is set to expire soon, and both sides seem more reluctant to extend it without a deal.
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD.

After rebounding sporadically over the past two weeks, Gold and other precious commodities have failed to match the broadly positive, euphoric mood currently driving equity markets.

While they initially profited from the first corrective wave in the US Dollar, capital flows have aggressively pivoted toward risk-on assets.

Traditional safe havens, which arguably lost their clear directional sight during the height of the war's panic, are now heavily questioning their role in this new environment—and investors are doing exactly the same.

The geopolitical clock is ticking. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is officially set to expire by Wednesday, April 22, and both sides appear increasingly reluctant to extend the truce without a finalized, signed agreement in place.

The US Administration is eager for a peaceful resolution but the President communicated that he is also ready to use strength.

Despite Crude Oil dropping back to the $90 handle, metals are struggling to pick up any meaningful bullish momentum while in this tense waiting room.

Should the ceasefire unexpectedly collapse without a diplomatic resolution, precious metals could face a violent, binary reaction.

If WTI Oil manages to remain contained below the critical $100 mark, Gold could absolutely explode higher on a sudden rush of risk-off haven flows, capitalizing on its recent technical correction, and a lack of worsening inflation expectations.

Conversely, more risk-sensitive, industrial-leaning metals like Silver and Copper would likely struggle to catch a sustained bid, facing heavy downward pressure precisely because they are hovering near their current relative highs.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold has rallied a quite impressive 17% after reaching 4-month lows on March 22, but has failed to breach the quintessential $4,900 resistance.

For bulls to retake the intermediate momentum advantage, they will have to generate a proper push above the psychological level – that could potentially happen if sentiment sours further.

In the immediate outlook however, the 4H 200-period MA is putting bearish pressure, hence if nothing fundamental changes, sellers would have the short-term advantage.

A break below the $4,781 50 MA confirms a turn lower and would push back towards $4,650.

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $4,800 4H 200-period MA
• $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• $4,781 50-MA short-term support
• Daily Momentum Pivot $4,675 (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver has also rallied strongly from its March 22 lows but is now struggling to extend above the $83 resistance.

Still evolving within a bull channel, traders will have to track its upper ($84.50) and lower bounds ($77) to play breakouts.

If the situation remains confusing as it currently is, expect the channel to consolidate into a range between $77 and $83.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 (Mid-term bullish above)
• Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• Key Momentum Pivot $75 to $79
• 4H 50 and 200-period MAs ($77)
• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades and a successful week!

• Bitcoin has reclaimed the $76000 handle and maintains a firmly bullish technical structure.
• The $75000 psychological level is acting as a consistent pivot, suggesting sustained institutional interest.
• If buying pressure persists, the primary short-term goal is a run toward the psychological $80000 level, with the ultimate bullish hurdle being $82133.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has displayed impressive resilience during the Monday session, shaking off early-morning sluggishness to reclaim the $76000 handle. After a brief period of consolidation, the premier cryptocurrency looks poised to challenge its recent highs, underpinned by a technical structure that continues to favor the "buy the dip" crowd.

Daily Chart: Holding the MA High Ground

The daily timeframe remains the cornerstone of the current bullish thesis. Following the impulsive "V-shaped" recovery throughout early April, Bitcoin has successfully turned previous resistance into rock-solid support.

Key observations on the Daily:

• The SMA Support Sandwich: Bitcoin is currently trading comfortably above its 100-day MA (yellow) at $74145 and its 50-day MA (blue) at $70577.

As long as the pair remains above this "support sandwich," the broader bias remains firmly bullish.

• The $75000 Pivot: The daily candles are showing a consistent ability to close above the $75000 psychological level, suggesting that institutional interest is picking up at these elevated levels.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is trending at 61, indicating that while momentum is positive, we are still a long way from the "danger zone" of 70+, leaving significant room for a run toward the $82133 hurdle.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 20, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H4 Chart: The Bullish Base at $74000

Zooming into the H4 chart, we can see a textbook example of healthy trend development. After hitting a local top near $78197, the pair underwent an orderly retracement that found a floor exactly at the 50-period MA (blue), currently at $74632.

The H4 structure has now printed a significant higher low. With the RSI bouncing off its midpoint (58) after a "PIVOT" low signal, the indicators suggest that the corrective phase is over, and the next impulsive leg may be beginning to take shape.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Intraday Outlook

The hourly chart provides the most immediate optimism, with Bitcoin slicing back above its 50, 100, and 200-period MAs in a single concerted move.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to maintain this momentum into the Asian and European sessions, we need to see a sustained hold above the $75700 area (the H1 100-MA). A clean break above $76800 would likely trigger a liquidation of short positions, clearing the path for a retest of $78197. If buying pressure persists, a psychological run toward $80000 becomes the primary target.

The Bearish Scenario

The bears need a rejection at current levels and a break back below the $75000 pivot to regain any short-term control. Failure to hold the $74555 level (H1 200-MA) would signal a more prolonged consolidation, likely drawing the price back toward the structural support at $71673.

However, given the current "BULL" labels on the RSI, the bears seem to be on the back foot for now.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $78197, $80000, $82133
• Support: $75000, $74145 (Daily 100-MA), $71673

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Bitcoin is effectively "re-loading" for its next major move. The confluence of support between $74,000 and $75,000 has proven to be a formidable base for the bulls. WIll it serve as a base for Bitcoin to finally push beyond the coveted $80000 mark?

• The ECB says it is still too early to fully assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the euro area, so policymakers should closely watch incoming data and avoid rushing into decisions.
• The war creates a classic supply shock: it raises energy and commodity prices, increases inflation risks, and at the same time threatens already weak euro area growth, especially through potential disruptions such as a Strait of Hormuz blockade.
• The ECB’s main concern is whether higher energy costs will trigger longer-lasting “second-round effects” across the economy; if inflation expectations rise and price pressures become persistent, the central bank may have to respond.

The European Central Bank is still unable to clearly assess how strong the full impact of the war with Iran will be on the euro area economy. As Álvaro Santos Pereira, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, emphasizes, the conflict is too recent to draw firm conclusions, so for now the central bank should closely monitor incoming data and refrain from hasty reactions.

Too early for a full assessment of the conflict’s effects

According to Pereira, the current situation requires caution because this is a classic supply shock. Such shocks usually lead at the same time to weaker economic growth and higher inflation, putting the central bank in a particularly difficult position. On the one hand, energy and commodity prices are rising; on the other, economic activity is weakening. For the euro area, this means worsening conditions, although at this stage the negative impact of the conflict is not yet seen as dramatic.

A supply shock puts the ECB in a difficult position

Pereira notes that the euro area economy is currently somewhere between the ECB’s baseline scenario and the adverse scenario it had considered. Even before the current crisis, economic growth in the euro area had been running at around 1%, which in itself pointed to limited recovery momentum. In this situation, any additional external shock, especially one related to the energy market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increases the risk of a further weakening in economic conditions.

ECB inflation and growth forecast, source: Bloomberg

The ECB is paying particularly close attention to developments surrounding the fighting in the Middle East and the potential consequences for Europe of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This channel could be of key importance for oil prices, transport costs, and more broadly for cost pressures in the economy. For the central bank, however, the most important issue will not be the temporary rise in prices itself, but the possibility of so-called second-round effects. This refers to a situation in which higher energy and commodity prices begin to spread into other sectors of the economy, pushing inflation higher in a more lasting way.

The biggest risk is entrenched inflationary pressure

In Pereira’s view, only clear signs that higher inflation is becoming entrenched, along with rising inflation expectations, should prompt the ECB to react. If such signals appear in the data, the central bank will have to respond. If, however, price pressure proves limited and temporary, it will be more appropriate to continue observing the situation and make decisions with great caution. This is particularly important at a time when less than two weeks remained before the ECB’s next interest-rate decision.

Euro Area Inflation Rate, source: TradingEconomics

Europe needs not only caution, but also reforms

In the Governing Council member’s opinion, short-term caution in monetary policy should not obscure the broader picture. Pereira points out that for more lasting growth, Europe also needs structural measures, above all faster completion of the single market. Deeper economic integration could increase Europe’s resilience to external shocks and improve its long-term growth prospects.

For now, the ECB therefore remains in a mode of vigilant observation. The conflict with Iran is already worsening economic conditions in the euro area, but the scale of its impact has not yet been determined. The coming weeks and incoming data will show whether this is a temporary disruption or the start of stronger and more persistent inflationary pressure that would force the central bank to respond.

WTI oil opened $5 higher and gained over 6% at the start of the week, as “Trump Indicator” (one of key fundamental market drivers nowadays) changed direction during the weekend on fresh tensions over Strait of Hormuz, which was opened on Friday and closed again shortly after.

Today’s price jump partially offset optimism, sparked by Friday’s price drop of about 10% that hit the lowest since early March.

Although the overall picture has been darkened by the latest developments that raise fears of fresh escalation (that may have strong negative impact, not only on the region, but the global economy) technical picture on daily chart is expected to remain bearishly aligned while the price stays below $90 barrier (which caps upticks for the fourth consecutive session).

Negative momentum studies and the action weighed by two consecutive large bearish weekly candles, contribute to such scenario, but situation on the battlefield (extended ceasefire and peace talks or fresh escalation) is likely to have a key impact on crude oils’ price direction.

Repeated daily close below $90 to maintain slight bearish bias and risk retest of 55DMA ($82.63) guarding more significant $80/$79 zone, break of which to confirm signal of bearish continuation.

On the other hand, sustained break above $90 would provide relief, but extension above $94 will be needed to confirm the signal.

Res: 90.00; 91.80; 92.46; 93.71
Sup: 84.50; 82.63; 80.00; 79.00

Markets

After the unjustified optimism on an ‘orderly’ end to the conflict between the US and Iran going into the weekend, markets at the start of the new week are facing again a lack of visibility on the next steps in the conflict. This a fortiori applies to the conditions and the nature of any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Economic analysts in this context also have to resort to guesstimates on the timing of any repair of energy and other supply chain disruptions that will determine the economic fall-out on the world economy. The end of a two-week ceasefire Tuesday evening is the next high profile deadline. New talks are expected to take place ahead of this deadline in Pakistan. However, Iran reclaiming an earlier promise to open de Strait of Hormuz and the US maintaining the blockade of Iran ports and seizing an Iranian ship illustrate the division/distrust between the parties involved. Markets today show the logic Pavol reaction that can be expected in case of such a U-turn in sentiment. Brent oil, still the most symbolic pointer on potential economic disruption due to the conflict, hovers near $95/b to be compared with levels below $90 at some point on Friday. Despite the substantial repositioning compared to Friday, intraday volatility remained rather low. Is this again some kind of agnosticism on yet another U-turn in the scenario of the conflict?. Or is it markets holding some complacency/hope that the bar for both sides to return to outright military hostilities has become high? Time will tell. European equites return part of Friday’s gain (Eurostoxx 50 -1% after a 2%+ gain on Friday). US indices open with losses of about 0.25%/0.5%. It’s all about assessing difficult to measure political probabilities, but also here, the damage/disappointment could have been more outspoken. Yields in the US and European opened higher, but momentum dwindled as the session continued. Markets are holding to the view that most central banks will take their time to assess the economic impact (both on inflation and growth) before adapting policy when deemed necessary later. Next week’s policy meetings of the Fed, the ECB and the BoE in this respect are seen as coming too already to trigger any preemptive action, especially with oil prices holding below $100/b. US yields today add between 0.5 bps (30-y) and 1.5. bps (2-y). EMU swap yields are rising between 4 bps (2-y) and 1.5 bps (30-y), only a fraction of Friday’s decline. On FX markets, the dollar failed to extend/hold gains at the open this morning. DXY trades near 98.2, with any bottoming out process still lacking any convincing follow-through price action. EUR/USD after an early session dip trades little changed near 1.1765. USD/JPY gains modestly (158.7), with underlying yen softness still keep the pair within reach of the 160 barrier. The US currency apparently ‘needs’ higher risk-aversion and/or higher oil prices to really regain momentum.

News & Views

Canadian inflation accelerated from 0.5% M/M to 0.9% in March with the annual number jumping from 1.8% to 2.4%. Markets feared an even bigger rise (1.1% M/M & 2.6%). Details showed gasoline prices rising by a record 21.2% M/M and oil prices by 2.6% M/M. Core inflation (ex-food and energy) rose a modest 0.1% M/M & 1.9% Y/Y, also printing below consensus (2.2% Y/Y). The Bank of Canada’s preferred trimmed mean slowed from 2.3% Y/Y to 2.2% Y/Y. There remained lingering base-year effects from the GST/HST break which ran from December 2024 to February 2025, resulting in downward pressure on headline inflation in March 2026. The Canadian central bank is expected to hold policy unchanged when it meets next week. Governor Macklem last week indicated that his main concern is longer-term inflation expectations. He sounded vigilant in not allowing the energy shock to spread.

Slovenia PM Golob admitted that his party was unable to form a government. Golob’s liberal party won last month’s national election by a razor-thin margin. The Freedom Movement won 29 out of 90 seats, beating outgoing PM Jansa’s (Orban ally, Trump adept, Russian sympathy) populist party which secured 28 seats. Jansa might now seek a return to office by setting up a centre-right coalition. He earlier indicated all options were comfortable for his party, forming a government, remaining in the opposition (ruled out now) or participating in new elections.

• The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has boosted demand for the US dollar.
• Washington and Tehran may be strengthening their positions ahead of negotiations.

The US dollar opened the week with a 0.2% gap upwards, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets. EURUSD has opened with a downward gap for the second five-day period in a row due to signs of an escalating conflict in the Middle East. First, talks between the US and Iran broke down; now, reports suggest a second round may not take place. No sooner had Tehran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels than the Americans seized one of its tankers. However, it should be noted that the initial fear is being washed out of the market rather quickly. It seems that major players are discerning positive dynamics amidst this chaos.

On Tuesday, 21 April, the ceasefire expires. Donald Trump is threatening further air strikes if Iran does not agree to a deal. Investors realise they have gone too far in their desire to jump onto the last carriage of the EURUSD train heading north. The markets, like the US president, have been mistaking wishful thinking for reality. It is time to shed these illusions. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks triggering a renewed rally in oil and the USD index.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the worse the consequences for the global economy will be. The threat of soaring consumer prices is becoming increasingly real. According to FOMC member Christopher Waller, if inflationary risks outweigh the risks of unemployment, the Fed will have to keep rates at their current level even if the labour market continues to cool. If one of the central bank’s key ‘doves’ says so, the others may start to consider tightening monetary policy. This would support the US dollar.

Signs of stagflation may emerge in the economic calendar. Data on business activity in the eurozone, the UK and the US could signal accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth. This would put central banks in an extremely difficult position. Given the ECB’s reluctance to raise its key rate in April, this could provide an opportunity for the bears to launch a counterattack on EURUSD.

The strengthening of the US dollar has caused gold to retreat on fears of accelerating inflation, which will force central banks, led by the Fed, to tighten monetary policy. However, traders are in no hurry to force the issue. The aggressive rhetoric from Washington and Tehran may be nothing more than a desire to strengthen their own positions ahead of the negotiations.

Headline CPI inflation jumped up to 2.4% year-on-year (y/y) in March, slightly less than consensus expectations. Higher energy prices were a big part of the story, with inflation ex-energy up a more modest 2.2% y/y.

Prices at the pump soared 21% in March – the largest increase on record. Energy prices as a whole were 3.9% higher versus a year ago, an about face from being down 9.3% y/y in February. But energy prices a year ago still included the consumer carbon levy, which was removed in April 2025. So the impact of energy on inflation is set to get much larger in next month's data.

Inflation for other key consumer essentials picked up. Grocery inflation picked up again to 4.4% y/y in March, up from 4.1% in February. Shelter inflation also picked up slightly, rising 1.7% y/y, up from 1.5% y/y in February. Despite this, overall services inflation cooled further to 2.5% y/y.

The Bank of Canada has focused on broader "underlying inflation" recently, but the official core inflation metrics (median and trim), cooled slightly in March to 2.3% y/y. Zeroing in on trends over the past three months, trim and median inflation continued to run well below the Bank of Canada's 2% target.

Key Implications

As expected, higher oil prices boosted Canadian inflation in March. Oil prices have fallen in recent days but remain nearly 40% higher than a year ago. That means energy prices are likely to keep headline inflation elevated for some time. April's inflation reading is likely to head much higher as the dampening effect of the removal of the consumer carbon levy falls out of the year-on-year inflation calculation.

Given a generally soft economic backdrop in Canada, we expect the effect on core prices should be more modest. Core inflation is expected to stay reasonably close to the 2% target on a year-on-year basis this year. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at next week's announcement. We will be listening closely for the Bank's assessment of the impact of the spike in oil prices on Canada's economy.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1733; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1823; More….

EUR/USD is still extending consolidations below 1.1848 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.1662 support holds. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will bring deeper decline back towards 1.1408 low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1507). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.