Sample Category Title

Eurozone industrial production jumped 2.6% mom in March, significantly outperforming expectations of 1.7% mom. The surge was driven by strong gains across key categories, including capital goods (+3.2%), durable consumer goods (+3.1%), and non-durable consumer goods (+2.3%). Intermediate goods also posted a modest 0.6% rise, while energy output dipped by -0.5%.

Across the broader EU, industrial production rose by 1.9% mom. Ireland led the gains with a remarkable 14.6% surge, followed by Malta (+4.4%) and Finland (+3.5%). However, there were notable declines in Luxembourg (-6.3%), Denmark, Greece (both -4.6%), and Portugal (-4.0%).

Full Eurozone industrial production release here.

Market Picture

Market capitalisation has fallen 2% in the last 24 hours to $3.30 trillion. Bitcoin, stuck near past highs, quickly spoiled the market’s mood, triggering a local profit correction after the rally. An active correction in gold may also be playing a role.

The crypto market sentiment index rolled back from 73 to 70, while remaining at an ‘elevated level’, implying positive sentiment and sufficient risk appetite.

Bitcoin retreated 1.5% to $102.0k, having been smoothly forming a top for the past seven days. This is a signal of an impending correction, which is reasonable near previous peaks and against the backdrop of slippage in the equity market.

Ethereum and Solana have stalled near their 200-day moving averages. Optimists may look at this as a stop to gain strength before a further hike upwards. Pessimists, on the other hand, may point out that BTCUSD took its 200-day MA last month in a strong move, with confidence that the leading altcoins are lacking right now.

News Background

Bitcoin’s current growth, unlike previous ones, is driven by strong demand on the spot market rather than leveraged speculation, according to K33 Research. This sets the stage for a renewal of historical highs. Experts do not expect unpleasant surprises from May, which is a weak month.

CryptoQuant noted that retail investors are increasingly active despite Bitcoin’s consolidation above $100,000. Such a resurgence is often a sign of renewed confidence and could be an additional catalyst for the next price move.

Wealthy UBS clients in Asia are shifting their focus from dollar assets to gold, cryptocurrencies and Chinese markets. Switzerland’s largest bank cites growing geopolitical uncertainty and persistent volatility as the main reasons.

Tether reported to the SEC that it bought 4,812 BTC worth more than $458 million for Twenty One Capital’s pending SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners.

In focus today

In the US, a range of data is due for release in the afternoon. April retail sales will provide the first hard data evidence on how consumer behaviour has reacted to higher tariffs. April PPI will provide further sense of the cost pressures that US firms are facing after the tariffs took effect. First regional manufacturing indices from the NY Fed and Philly Fed will provide a more forward-looking sense of the business cycle.

In the euro area, we receive the second estimate of GDP growth in Q1 2025. The first estimate showed larger than expected growth at 0.35% q/q. Focus in the second estimate will thus mainly be on the employment data that we also receive. Employment growth slowed down in the final quarter of 2024 but remained positive at 0.1% q/q. Soft indicators point to broadly the same growth rate in Q1 2025 or slightly lower, overall indicating a stagnating labour market, but with record-high employment despite the weak growth.

Also in the euro area, we keep an eye on industrial production data for March, which likely increased further, in a sign that activity has bottomed out, but also with potential front-loading distortions from the US trade policy.

In Norway, we expect that mainland GDP rose by 1.0 % in Q1, marking the strongest quarterly growth in close to three years. This would surpass Norges Bank's March forecast of 0.6%, suggesting the potential need for rate cuts may be lower than expected. The big question is whether the Q1 recovery was influenced by unfulfilled rate cut expectations in March.

Also, the government will publish the Revised Budget 2025, with no significant changes expected in the fiscal policy framework. The withdrawal from the State Petroleum Fund will probably increase to around 3%, driven by lower fund values and increased support for Ukraine, with minimal impact on Norway's activity level.

In Sweden, we receive inflation expectations from Origo (Prospera). It will be interesting to see if there are any signs of rising expectations, as we saw among firms in the NIER survey.

In Japan, Q1 national account data will be released overnight. Even if Q1 is a long time ago, it is not irrelevant for the picture of the fragile economic recovery and the prospects for further rate hikes from the BoJ. Data out so far suggests close to a standstill in GDP, as import growth will likely constitute a drag following a comeback from Q4. Also, particularly a surge in food prices weighs on private spending. Wage increases will compensate for it once implemented over the summer.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In geopolitics, Thursday's peace talks in Turkey, focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will unfold without the presence of President Putin and Trump, lowering expectations for significant progress. President Zelenskyy has earlier stated that he will attend only if Putin is present.

What happened yesterday

In the US, The Fed's Daly said late yesterday that the strength of US economy allows policymakers to be patient, which is well in line with comments heard from other FOMC participants since the May meeting.

In Germany, the final inflation print for April confirmed the flash release of 2.1% y/y in CPI and 2.8% y/y in core CPI. Core inflation was higher than expected in the flash release and the final estimate allows us to digest which categories contributed to this. The move higher was especially due to Easter being in April this year compared to March last year. This is visible as prices on package holidays rose 9.2% y/y, passenger transport 11.3% y/y, and air tickets 19.1% y/y. It suggests that the increase in April should be seen more as a one-off rather than a resurgence of price pressures in core services.

In Sweden, inflation figures have been released with CPI at 0.3% y/y, CPIF at 2.3% y/y, and CPIF excl. energy at 3.1% y/y, aligning with flash estimates. Core inflation was driven by international flight costs, while food prices rose 0.2%, slightly below the forecast. Energy prices and mortgage costs were in line with our forecast. Core inflation's surprise led to a 0.15 percentage point forecast error across all inflation measures. We expect inflation to remain slightly above target this year and return to target next year, anticipating the Riksbank will uphold its stance given the enhanced risk environment.

We also received minutes from the Riksbank, revealing board consensus on higher-than-usual uncertainty. While elevated core inflation is expected to soften, the tariff impact is deemed marginal. The board views the economy as weaker than March forecasts, suggesting easing inflationary pressures and a potential rate cut as a next step. We consider a rate cut becoming more likely, but June is premature, with timing uncertain thereafter.

In China, April's credit data revealed a sharper-than-expected decline in new loans to CNY 280bn (cons: CNY 700bn), amid ongoing trade tensions with the US that have further dampened market appetite during a typically slow month for loan demand. The M2 money supply surprised to the topside, rising by 8.0% y/y, reflecting the government's stimulus efforts.

Equities: Equities lost steam on Wednesday. Most regions were lower, including Stoxx 600 -0.5%, Nordic -0.4% but S&P 500 up 0.1% (but equal weighted -0.6%). So, the US outperformance continues, although it is entirely subscribed to the MAG 7 stocks. S&P 500 is now up 9% over the last month, a few decimals ahead of Stoxx 600. Although indexes took a breather yesterday, risk-on remains with a clear cyclical preference. Futures are a notch lower this morning together with Asian markets.

FI&FX: The post trade-deal risk rally is losing steam with notably the JPY marking a comeback over the last 24 hours with USD/JPY moving back to 146. In the Scandies, EUR/NOK has rebounded back above 11.60 while EUR/SEK is back close to the 10.90 mark. Despite a temporary spike higher EUR/USD is close to unchanged since Tuesday evening. Overnight, USD rates have rallied somewhat driven by the short end resulting in a slight steepening pressure. This has reversed the USD flattening/rise in USD rates from yesterday's session where NOK rates notably underperformed European peers.

Markets

There were very few eco data to guide global trading yesterday. (US) equities took a breather. Details on US trade agreements with the likes China and the UK still have to be hammered out. This is also the case for (framework) deals with other trading partners. For now, equity investors felt enough trade de-escalation might have been discounted. The S&P closed little changed (+0.1%). Headlines on commercial deals during Trump’s Middle East trip still triggered some Nasdaq outperformance, but also here the risk momentum appears to be slowing. Core yields markets didn’t find a clear direction in European trading, but again took the path north in US dealings. At the short end of the curve, better/less negative economic prospects only reinforced the case of Powell’s reactive policy approach. The 2-y yield regained the 4.0% mark (+5.1 bps). LT yields also continued their recent assent. Here, probably it’s not only better economic prospects at work. As the Trump fiscal package is moving its way through the committees of Congress, the theme of fiscal sustainability is also again looming (cf infra). The US 10-y added 7.1 bps. The 30-y is coming ever closer to the 5.0% psychological barrier (4.96%, + 6.3 bps). German yields also again gained a few bps (0.5 bp to 2.5 bps across the curve). UK gilt yields in a similar way added 4-5 bps. Higher (less low) for longer is again becoming mainstream on core yields markets. On FX, the dollar was hit by headlines that the US was seeking ‘engagements’ on a weaker dollar at trade negotiations with trading partners, e.g. South Korea. The rumours evidently weren’t confirmed by any of the parties involved, but markets picked up the message. After gaining on recent US reflationary spirits, the dollar rally was blocked. After spiking lower intraday, DXY closed the session little changed at 100.03. Idem for EUR/USD (close 1.1175). The yen outperformed (USD/JPY close 146.75).

This morning, Asian equities are facing some profit taking after recent rally. US yields are holding little changed. The dollar is losing further ground, especially against the likes of the yen (USD/JPY 146.05). EUR/USD is again nearing the 1.12 big figure. Later today, the eco calendar is better filled with the EMU Q1 GDP, the US empire manufacturing survey, the Philly Fed business outlook, US April retail sales, PPI & jobless claims. Most of these releases probably mirror the brisk swings in expectations post the Libation Day announcements. In this respect, it won’t be easy for markets to draw any conclusions on what to expect going forward. If anything, good/better than expected data still might solidify the bottom for core real yields. At the same time, after yesterday’s price action, it’s doubtful this will be much of a help for the dollar. The US currency is at risk being captured again in a sell-on-upticks pattern. This morning, UK Q1 GDP surprise on the upside (0.7% Q/Q and 1.3% Y/Y), but details were a bit mixed (poor consumption, solid capital formation). In a first reaction, sterling is gaining a few ticks (0.843).

News & Views

The US Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the developing House reconciliation bill will add roughly $3.3tn to US debt through the fiscal year 2034 as written or $5.2tn if made permanent. Under current law, debt is projected to rise from nearly 100% of GDP today to 117% by 2034. Adding the impact of the reconciliation bill, this would be 125% or even 129% of GDP. Total yearly deficits would rise dramatically – from $1.8tn in 2024 to $2.9tn by 2034 under the bill and $3.3tn under a permanent version of the bill. As a share of GDP, yearly deficits would rise to 6.9% – or 7.8% if the bill were extended permanently. Interest costs alone would make up a large share of that borrowing, doubling from nearly $900bn in 2024 to $1.8tn (4.2% of GDP) by 2034 as written, or to $1.9tn (4.4% GDP) if permanent. This excludes dynamic effects where higher debt boost interest rates.

Australian employment increased by 89k in April, up from 36.4 in March and significantly beating the consensus estimate (+22.5k). Details showed the lion share of occupations coming from full time jobs (+59.5k). Employment has grown by 390k people, or 2.7%, over the year. This annual growth rate is higher than the population growth rate for people aged 15 years and over, which was 2.1% over the same period. The unemployment rate stabilized at 4.1%, but the labour force participation rate increased from 66.8% to 67.1%. Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released wage growth numbers. Those showed an acceleration from 0.7% Q/Q in Q4 2024 to 0.9% in Q1 2025 (+3.4% Y/Y). Despite labour market strength and slightly higher than expected Q1 CPI numbers, money markets stick to the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.85% when it meet next week. The RBA implemented a first cautious rate cut in February this year followed by a status quo in April.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.79; (P) 195.10; (R1) 195.96; More...

GBP/JPY retreated after failing to sustain above 195.95 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rally is in favor as long as 190.22 support holds. Firm break of 195.95 will suggest that whole choppy decline from 199.79 has completed, and target this resistance next. However, decisive break of 190.22 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.42; (P) 164.29; (R1) 164.86; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen Further rally is in favor as long as 161.57 support holds. Above 165.19 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance. However, firm break of 161.57 will indicate near term reversal, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8405; (P) 0.8421; (R1) 0.8439; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral first with current retreat. Another fall is expected as long as 0.8539 resistance holds. As noted before, rebound from 0.8221 might have completed as a corrective move. Break of 0.8401 will target a retest on 0.8221/8239 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the extended decline from 0.8737 dampened the original bullish view. While a medium term bottom was in place at 0.8221, price actions from there could be a corrective pattern only. Larger down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) might still be in progress. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8438) will turn favor to this bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7286; (P) 1.7345; (R1) 1.7441; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral again with current recovery. Further fall is in favor as long as 1.7628 resistance holds. Below 1.7245 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8554 at 1.6953. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.7628 resistance will argue that fall from 1.8854 might be completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9382; (P) 0.9402; (R1) 0.9430; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.9218 is either as a corrective move or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. On the upside, break of 0.9445 will target 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9296 at 0.9523. Nevertheless, break of 0.9296 support will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9548) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Silver’s rally from its July 4, 2025, low has unfolded as an impulsive Elliott Wave structure, completing Wave (1) at $33.67. The metal is now in a corrective Wave (2) pullback. It is characterized by a double three Elliott Wave pattern, a common corrective formation in technical analysis. From the Wave (1) peak, Wave ((a)) declined to $32.63, followed by a recovery in Wave ((b)) to $33.53. The subsequent drop in Wave ((c)) reached $31.65, finalizing Wave W of the double three structure.

A corrective rally then formed Wave X, structured as a zigzag. Within Wave X, Wave ((a)) advanced to $32.70, Wave ((b)) pulled back to $31.91, and Wave ((c)) rose to $33.25, completing Wave X at a higher degree. Silver has since resumed its decline in Wave Y. From the Wave X high, Wave ((w)) fell to $32.20, and a minor recovery in Wave ((x)) hit $33.23. As long as Silver stays below the Wave (1) high of $33.67, further downside is expected, targeting $29.90–$31.18, based on the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension from the April 25, 2025, high. This range may attract buyers, potentially sparking a reversal. While the $33.67 pivot holds, rallies are likely to fail in 3, 7, or 11-swing patterns, leading to further declines. Traders should watch these levels for strategic entry points.

Silver (XAGUSD) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart

Silver hourly chart showing current wave structure with projected targets and critical support

Video Breakdown: Silver Technical Outlook

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms1yjvPLXbk