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Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.19; (P) 107.36; (R1) 107.47; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 112.40 is in progress and should target a test on 104.69 low. On the upside, above 107.73 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.80 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we'd expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Yen rises broadly today as major treasury yields are resuming recent decline. German 10-year yield hits new record low at -0.33 while US 10-year yield is back below 2.0 handle. Though, New Zealand Dollar is even stronger as record export in May solidifies the case for RBNZ to stand pat tomorrow. At this point, Canadian Dollar is the third strongest as WTI oil is back above 58.

On the other hand, European majors are generally the weakest. Swiss Franc leads the was as it's paring recent rise, as imminent risk of war in middle east is averted. Nonetheless, fresh US sanctions on Iran are enough to push gold towards 1440 handle. Euro and Sterling also pare back some gains against Dollar as markets are awaiting comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell. Markets will be keen to know how close is Fed to rate cut.

Release in early US session, Canada wholesales rose 1.7% mom in April, above expectation of 0.3% mom. US house price index rose 0.4% mom in April, above expectation of 0.2% mom. S&P Case-Shiller 20-cities house price rose 2.5% yoy in April, matched expectations.

In Europe, FTSE is up 0.11%. DAX is down -0.03%. CAC is up 0.00%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0197 at -0.325. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.43%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.15%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.87%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0009 to -0.15.

US Perdue: Farmers are one of the casualties of Trump's trade war

US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue admitted that farmers are "one of the casualties" of Trump's trade war. He told CNN that American farmers "are one of the casualties here with trade disruption". And, "we knew going in that when you flew the penalty flag on China, the retaliation, if it came, would be against the farmer."

Perdue added "I've told the President -- and the President understands -- you can't pay the bills with patriotism. We know that, and certainly he knows that. That's why he's trying to supplement the damage they're having from trade disruptions with market facilitation."  However, he said he cannot promise any more aids for 2020.

UK retail sales volume contracted in fastest pace since 2009

UK CBI reported sales dropped sharply to -42 in June, down from -27 and way off expectation of -3. That is, 16% of retailers said sales volumes were up in June of a year ago. 58% said they were down. It also indicates that retail sales volumes fell at their fastest pace since March 2009 in the year to June

CBI said: "Recent data suggests UK economic growth has slowed noticeably in the second quarter of 2019, as the boost from stockpiling activities in Q1 fades. We expect the UK to return to a subdued growth path further ahead, although risks from Brexit uncertainty and global trade tensions remain heightened."

Italy Tria: 2.1% deficit represented a more than prudent fiscal policy

According to a prepared speech for delivery today, Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said "for a zero growth economy like Italy" a 2.1% deficit represented "a more than prudent fiscal policy".

He added that the country is targeting to keep deficit low in the coming years. And the government will continue to lower its debt through reducing spending. Thus, "on this basis, we feel that Italy is substantially compliant with European fiscal rules." Tria is also confidence of reaching an agreement over its budget with the EU.

EU leaders are expected to approve the so-called Excessive Deficit Procedure on July 8-9 summit, which would lead to penalty to Italy over its budget. It's reported that European Commission would give Italy until January to make necessary budget corrections.

BoJ April Minutes: Clarifications on forward guidance added to strengthen public confidence on persistent easing stance

The minutes of April 24-25 BoJ meeting showed that some members suggested clarifications on the forward guidance, "with the aim of strengthening public confidence in its monetary easing stance". That came as "many members" recognized the "high uncertainties" regarding economic outlook and prices. And, it was likely to "still take time to achieve 2 percent inflation".

In the statement after that meeting, BoJ added: "The Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020, taking into account uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including developments in overseas economies and the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike."

One member said "at least through around spring 2020" as providing a specific time frame with open-ended elements. Some members also noted that clarifying the meaning of "for an extended period of time" implied a fairly long period of time was necessary.

Also from Japan, corporate service price index rose 0.8% yoy in May, below expectation of 1.0% yoy.

New Zealand exports jumped to record high, trade surplus at NZD 264M

In May, New Zealand good export rose 8.5% yoy to NZD 5.8B, hitting a record high. Import rose 7.6% yoy to NZD 5.5B. Trade surplus came in at NZD 264m, above expectation of NZD 200m. In particular, exports to China rose 29% yoy to NZD 1.5B led by rises in milk powder, beef, food preparations and logs. Strong terms of trade reaffirms RBNZ's stance to stand pat tomorrow. Yet, the central bank will likely maintain openness to further rate cut later in the year.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.19; (P) 107.36; (R1) 107.47; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 112.40 is in progress and should target a test on 104.69 low. On the upside, above 107.73 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.80 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we'd expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

BTCUSD is testing a new 15-month peak of 11,427, creating a strong bullish rally over the last three weeks. While the slowdown in the red Tenkan-sen and the blue Kijun-sen lines could be a warning sign that the bullish action may soon fade, the market could chart another rally if the MACD continues to trend higher and rises above its red signal line. The RSI is hovering in the overbought zone as well.

If there’s a cross above today’s high, nearby resistance could be detected around 11,660 taken from the peak on March 2018. Should the market beat this area too, the door would open for the 11,865 resistance level.

On the flipside, if bitcoin returns lower, it could touch the red-Tenkan-sen line around 10,966 while a decisive close below this level could be followed by additional losses towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 7,410 to 11,427. Even lower attention shifts to the 20-simple moving average (SMA) currently at 10,273 in the 4-hour chart.

Summarizing, BTCUSD is looking cautiously positive in the short-term and bullish in the medium-term.

WTI oil futures for August delivery are moving sideways below the 50.0% Fibonacci mark of the 66.60 – 50.60 downleg near 58.58 but hover above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) in the 4-hour chart. The RSI and the MACD are losing steam as both are falling in the positive area.

If the market proves overbought, the price could reverse south to retest the 38.2% Fibonacci of 56.70. Lower, the 40-period SMA would be the next target around 55.30 before a bigger battle starts around the 54.85 barrier.

However, buyers would like to see prices running above the 58.20 resistance and the 50.0% Fibonacci region of 58.58 in the near term to put faith in the recent rally. The next obstacle is coming from the 59.70 level, registered on May 30.

In brief, WTI oil futures are looking cautiously neutral in the very short-term, while in case of a climb above 58.20, it could continue the bullish structure.

Entering into US session, New Zealand Dollar remains the strongest one for today. June exports jumped to record high and that solidifies the case for RBNZ to stand pat tomorrow. Yen is trading as the second strongest, as helped by falling treasury yields. German 10-year yield hits record low at -0.33. US 10-year yield could revisit 2% handle again today. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is currently the weakest one, paring back some of recent rally on reduced concern on war in middle east. EUR/CHF also recovers ahead of 1.1056 support. Sterling is the second weakest, and then Euro.

The main focus in European session session is US consumer confidence. Some housing data will also be released. Additionally, Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak again today and markets are keen to know how close is Fed to rate cut. At the same time, any news regarding US-China trade negotiations ahead of Trump-Xi meeting at G20 will also be watched.

In Europe, currently:

• FTSE is up 0.02%.
• DAX is down -0.06%.
• CAC is up -0.09%.
• German 10-year yield is down -0.015 at -0.320.

Earlier in Asia:

• Nikkei dropped -0.43%.
• Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.15%.
• China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.87%.
• Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.22%.
• Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0009 to -0.15.

US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue admitted that farmers are "one of the casualties" of Trump's trade war. He told CNN that American farmers "are one of the casualties here with trade disruption". And, "we knew going in that when you flew the penalty flag on China, the retaliation, if it came, would be against the farmer."

Perdue added "I've told the President -- and the President understands -- you can't pay the bills with patriotism. We know that, and certainly he knows that. That's why he's trying to supplement the damage they're having from trade disruptions with market facilitation." However, he said he cannot promise any more aids for 2020.

Upcoming G20 meeting continues to dominate

Stock markets are trading slightly in the red on Tuesday but we’re not seeing any moves of real substance, as traders continue to focus on events later in the week.

It's never ideal when the headline act is so late in the week as we can often spend the rest of it sitting idly by trying to feign interest in the supporting cast. Barring another flare up in the Gulf of Oman or another unexpected event, that is always how this week was likely to pan out and so far, that's exactly what we're seeing.

It doesn't help that this G20 meeting has the potential to be a game changer. Clearly investors expectations are either quite low or they just don't think it makes any difference to what interest rates will do on the back of it. As it stands, a US interest rate cut is 100% priced in for July, with markets pricing a 38% chance that it's 50 basis points. Moreover, three rate cuts is more than 70% priced in by year-end.

Fed Interest Rate Probabilities

Should Trump and Xi surprise us all and find a compromise that both accelerates negotiations and averts the need for further tariffs in Osaka, I would be very surprised if these odds don't change significantly. They seem far too pessimistic based on inflation and a slight weakening in the data, alone. I can't imagine the consumer confidence or manufacturing data will change anything, although Powell and Bullard's speeches later on may be interesting, especially if they signal that markets have gone too far.

Tuesday June 25: Five things the markets are talking about

Global equities were under pressure in the overnight session, along with U.S stock futures as geopolitical events continue to fester ahead of this week's main event, the G20 sit down in Osaka, Japan. The ‘traditional' safe haven trade strategy continues to dominate – sovereign yields are lower while gold and yen remain better bid.

The recent G7 central bank market rally is stalling as the market does not seem that confident of a Trump/Xi Jinping trade break through at this week's G20 gathering. Coupled with Iran suggesting that Trump's new sanctions, delivered Monday, has closed off any diplomatic solution to their dispute has managed to push gold prices to new eight-year highs, U.S 10-year yields towards +2% and yen again a favorable trade.

Expect the market to closely watch Fed Chair Powell today at 1:00 pm ET, who is due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, in New York. Audience questions are expected.

Déjà vu, Boris Johnson, the favorite to become the next U.K PM, said he will seek a new Brexit deal with the E.U, but if they refuse his demands then he will lead the U.K out without agreement on Oct. 31.

On tap for this week: The Group of 20 summit is in Osaka, Japan on Friday and Saturday. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement (June 25).

1. Stocks not everyone's favorite

In Japan, equities retreated overnight on the back of a stronger yen (¥106.77) trading at six-month highs outright and geopolitical worries. The Nikkei ended the day down -0.43%, while the broader Topix was -0.27% lower.

Down-under, Aussie shares closed slightly lower overnight in thin trading as caution prevailed ahead of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping this week. The S&P/ASX 200 index slipped -0.11%. In S. Korea, the Kospi stock index shed early gains to end lower as investors kept to the sidelines ahead of Sino-U.S trade talks.

In China and Hong Kong, shares ended lower, snapping a six-day streak of gains, as investors locked in profits ahead of the G20. At the close, the Shanghai Composite index was down -0.87%, while the blue-chip CSI300 index was down -1.04%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was down -1.2%.

In Europe, regional bourses trade mostly lower in a quiet session thus far, tracking a mixed session in Asia and slightly lower U.S futures. Geopolitical tensions remain to the fore.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘red' (-0.17%).

Indices: Stoxx600 -0.13% at 383.30, FTSE -0.31% at 7,393.75, DAX -0.08% at 12,265.36, CAC-40 -0.18% at 5,511.81, IBEX-35 -0.52% at 9,145.00, FTSE MIB -0.35% at 21,210.50, SMI -0.11% at 9,892.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.17%.

2. Oil prices influenced by demand worries and U.S/Iran tensions, gold higher

Oil prices are feeling the 'push, pull factor' – concerns over declining crude demand are being offset by risks to supply linked to new U.S sanctions on Iran.

Benchmark Brent crude futures are down -12c at +$64.74 a barrel, while U.S crude (WTI) futures are up +3c at $57.93 a barrel.

Crude ‘bears are finding support from a number of sources, first, a comment from a senior U.S official indicating that U.S President Trump was 'comfortable with any outcome' from the U.S/China G20 trade talks this weekend. Also, helping their cause is weak manufacturing data released yesterday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

However, the crude ‘bulls' point to the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East to support higher crude oil prices.

The market is also waiting for the OPEC+ meeting where members will decide whether to extend a supply reduction pact that ends this month. Last week, OPEC agreed to move its next meeting to July 1, followed by a meeting with non-OPEC allies on July 2, while the joint technical committee will meet June 30.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices have climbed to a six-year high overnight, as the ‘big' dollar slipped to a multi-month low across the board and geo-political Middle East tensions lifted the appeal for the safe-haven metal. Spot gold is up +0.9% at +$1,431.93 per ounce and is heading for a sixth consecutive session of gains and has rallied nearly +10% in June. U.S gold futures have jumped +1.3% to +$1,436.20 an ounce.

3. Yields on the move lower again

Already this month, dealers' expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will embark on a rate cut in the coming months have driven German and other eurozone government bond yields to or near record lows.

The markets focus now shifts to today's speech by Fed Chair Powell (1:00 pm ET), who is coming under strong pressure from U.S President Donald Trump to cut rates sharply. The market is looking for signs on how much U.S policymakers will cut rates by next month, particularly now that Trump has upped his criticism of the central bank, saying it 'blew it' in June.

Note: Currently, the market is pricing in a -25 bps cut by the Fed, and will be keeping an eye on a possible -50 bps cut.

The yield on U.S 10-year Treasuries has fallen -1 bps to +2.00%, the lowest in more than two-years. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield has dipped less than -1 bps to -0.31%, while in the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has gained less than +1 bps to +0.819%.

4. Down dollar down

'Big' dollar selling continues on expectations of further Fed interest rates cuts. Expect USD ‘bears' to look to Fed speak today for more support.

EUR/USD earlier rose to its highest in nearly five months at €1.1415, having shrugged off Monday's weak German Ifo data. The techies say a rise above €1.1450 with some conviction should open the way for the ‘single' unit to break above €1.15 handle. Currently, USD ‘bulls' require some unexpected and very strong U.S data to help their plight – U.S fixed income dealers are pricing a +100% probability of a rate cut at each of the remaining Fed meetings in 2019.

Expectations for policy easing from the Fed and ECB, as well as concerns about tensions between the U.S and Iran, are raising the Swiss franc's value. CHF is at a 2019 high outright and nearing a one-year high against the euro. USD/CHF has fallen to a low of $0.9683 and EUR/CHF is last up +0.1% at €1.1091, having fallen as low as €1.1063.

JPY has been the main beneficiary of safe-haven flows with USD/JPY testing new five-month lows below the ¥107 level at ¥106.77

And Bitcoin (BTC) is on the rise again, breaking back above $11,000 and printing new 2019 highs – it's up +47% from its lows earlier this month. BTC's rally has gained steam in recent weeks as excitement builds about Facebook's upcoming launch of its own cryptocurrency called Libra. Investors are optimistic it will be the first digital currency to truly go mainstream.

5. Boris is serious, no-deal Brexit ‘his' reality

Boris Johnson, the favorite to become the next U.K PM, said he will seek a new Brexit deal with the E.U, but if they refuse his demands then he will lead the U.K out without agreement on Oct. 31.

Johnson's pledge to leave the E.U without a deal could provoke a standoff with the British parliament which has indicated its opposition to a ‘no-deal' exit.

Note: A ‘no-deal' scenario means there would be no transition period so the exit would be abrupt – this would be the nightmare scenario for many business leaders and the dream for hard Brexiteers who want a decisive split.

In an interview with BBC, Johnson said he did 'not want a no-deal Brexit, but that it was necessary to put it on the table so that Britain could get the result it wanted.'

Notes/Observations

• Safe-haven flows continue to dominate as Iran appeared to close the door on talks to resolve Mid-East tensions
• Subdued growth pattern that the ECB and the Fed perceive as weak enough to trigger near-term policy easing
• Focus on fed chief Powell later in the NY afternoon

Asia:

• BOJ Apr minutes (two meetings ago):reiterated that appropriate to persistently continue with the current powerful monetary easing to achieve that 2% inflation (little changed from prior months minutes)
• US President Trump reportedly considering ending post-War Japan Defense pact believing the treaty treated the US unfairly and was too one-sided. Doesn't oblige for Japan to come to America's defense

Americas:

• Fed's Kaplan (dove, non-voter): concerned a rate cut now could fuel imbalances; wise to take time to consider if we need to change rates
• US Trade Rep Lighthizer spoke with China Vice Premier Liu He via phone today, details of the conversation were not initially disclosed
• Senior White House Administration Official: China President Xi likely to meet with Trump on second day of G20 (Sat, Jun 29th)
• US judge found three large Chinese banks in contempt for refusing to comply with subpoenas in an investigation into North Korean sanctions violations

Energy:

• President Trump confirmed signing executive order on further Iran sanctions; called them 'strong' sanctions to target Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and those in his office
• US, UK, UAE and Saudi joint statement: called on Iran to halt any further action that threatened regional stability and called for diplomatic solutions to deescalate tensions
• Iran For Min Spokesman Mousavi: Latest US sanctions means 'closing channel of diplomacy forever'

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.13% at 383.30, FTSE -0.31% at 7,393.75, DAX -0.08% at 12,265.36, CAC-40 -0.18% at 5,511.81, IBEX-35 -0.52% at 9,145.00, FTSE MIB -0.35% at 21,210.50, SMI -0.11% at 9,892.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.17%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mostly lower in a lackluster session so far, tracking a mixed session in Asia and slightly lower US Index futures. Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront as President Trump signed off on new sanction on Iran. On the M&A front, Altran shares trade over 20% higher after entering into exclusive negotiations to be acquired by Capgemini for €14/shr; Billerudkorsnas divested its majority stake in Bergvik Skog Ost for SEK12.2B, while Royal Dutch shares is in lead position to acquire Dutch firm Eneco ans Enel and Total drop out of the running. On the corporate front Carpetright gains on earnings, while Morses Club, Petrofac, Gear4music and Ahlers decline. In other news the UK Supermarkets Tesco, Morrison's and Sainsbury's trade under pressure as market growth remained flat; Poxel gains following positive data from its Imeglimin Phase 3 trial, while Beter Bed declines sharply as the company investigates alternatives for future of Matratzen Concord. Looking ahead notable earnings include Lennar, Factset Research and Barnes and Noble Education.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Tesco [TSCO.UK] -3% (Kantar data), Carpetright [CPR.UK] +9% (earnings), Beter Bed Holding [BBED.NL] -37% (liquidity), Gear4music [G4M.UK] -10% (earnings)
• Energy: Petrofac [PFC.UK] -5% (trading update)
• Financials: Morses Club [MCL.UK] -6% (AGM)
• Healthcare: Santhera Phamaceuticals [SANN.CH] +4% (EMA validation), Poxel [POXEL.FR] +3% (study results)
• Technology: Altran Technologies [ALT.FR] +21%, CapGemeni [CAP.FR] +6% (entered into discussions)
• Telecom: Iliad [ILD.FR] -5% (analyst action)

Speakers

• ECB's De Guindos (Spain) reiterated Council stance that effects of negative rates on the banking sector needed to be carefully monitored; situation could be dampened by deteriorating growth expectations and contribute to sector's structural weakness
• Italy Dep PM DI Maio (5-Star): reiterated stance coalition govt would serve its full term and carry on for another 4 years
• Japan Cabinet Office Official Shibuya: Met with US counterparts on trade on Tuesday 9Jun 25th). Did not discuss all issues but did increase the understanding of viewpoints
• BOK Gov Lee stated that it would respond appropriately to drastic worsening in economic conditions. It now saw 2019 inflation below the prior April view of 1.1%
• Iran's President Rouhani stated that US sanctions on Tehran displayed Washington's desperation and reiterated that the actions would fail. Policy towards Tehran displayed Trump Administration 'despair with the White House mentally 'retarded' . Tehran practicing strategic patience but had no fear; Iranian airspace was a red line. Claimed that US violated 2015 nuclear deal and only wanted to talk at this time

Currencies/Fixed Income

• Central bank rate speculation keeping the FX market probing for a new trend but geopolitical concerns continued to percolate.
• EUR/USD tested above the 1.14 handle early in the session but the pair could not hold into its gains.
• Dealers noted that speculation that ECB to embark on a rate cut in the coming months have driven German and other Euro Zone government bond yields to or near record lows this month German 10-year year hits a fresh record low at -0.33%
• The JPY currency (Yen) was the main beneficiary of safe-haven flows with USD/JPY testing 5-month lows below the 107 level.

Economic Data

• (FI) Finland May Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.0% prior
• (FR) France Jun Business Confidence: 106 v 106e; Manufacturing Confidence: 102 v 104e; Production Outlook Indicator: 3 v 5e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 8 v 13e
• (AT) Austria Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 5.7% prior
• (ES) Spain May PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 2.4% prior
• (ZA) South Africa Apr Leading Indicator: 105.5 v 104.9e
• (SE) Sweden May PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.5% v 4.9% prior
• (HK) Hong Kong May Trade Balance (HKD): -34.7B v -36.8Be; Exports Y/Y: --2.4% v 4.5%e; Imports Y/Y: -4.3% v -5.8%e

Fixed Income Issuance

• (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR8.0T vs. IDR6.0T in 6-month Islamic Bills and 2-year, 4-year, 7-year and 15-year, Sukuk Bonds
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €2.25B vs. €1.75-2.25B indicated range in Zero Coupon Jun 2021 CTZ; Avg Yield: 0.431% v 0.818% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.58x v 1.46x prior
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €1.0B vs. €0.5-1.0B indicated range in 2028 and 2041 inflation-linked bonds (BTPei)
• (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR3.3B in 2030, 2035 and 2040 bonds
• (CH) Switzerland sold CHF403.6M in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: -0.801% v -0.798% prior

Looking Ahead

• (PT) Portugal Apr Current Account Balance: No est v -€0.3B prior
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Q1 Non-farm payrolls Q/Q: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior
• 05:30 (UK) Weekly John Lewis LFL Sales data
• 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO)(prior €6.2B with 33 bids recd)
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell in 3-month Bills
• 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €5.0B in 0% Jun 2021 Schatz
• 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell £2.25B in 1.75%2049 Gilts
• 06:00 (UK) Jun CBI Retailing Reported Sales: -5e v -27 prior; Total Distribution: -10e v -20 prior
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank COPOM Jun Minutes
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 86.6 prior
• 07:45 (US) Weekly Chain Stores Sales data
• 08:00 (PL) Poland May M3 Money Supply M/M: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.1%e v 10.4% prior
• 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.90%; expected to leave Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at -0.05%
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mid- Jun IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 4.9% prior
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:00 (RU) Russia announces upcoming OFZ Bond issuance
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 1.4% prior
• 08:45 (US) Fed's Williams (moderate, voter)
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data
• 09:00 (US) Apr FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
• 09:00 (US) Apr S&P/Casechiller (20-City) M/M: 0.10%e v 0.09% prior; Y/Y: 2.50%e v 2.68% prior; NSA Index: 215.60e v 214.09 prior
• 09:00 (US) Apr S&P/Casechiller (overall) HPI Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.7% prior; House Price Index: No est v 206.23 prior
• 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Retail Sales M/M: +0.3%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.6% prior
• 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
• 09:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy post rate decision press conference
• 10:00 (US) Jun Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 4e v 5 prior
• 10:00 (US) May New Home Sales: 685Ke v 673K prior
• 10:00 (US) Jun Consumer Confidence: 131.0e v 134.1 prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserve data
• 12:00 (US) Fed's Bostic (dove, on-voter)
• 13:00 (US) Fed Chair Powell in NY
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 2-year Notes
• 13:15 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Frankfurt
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v -16.6% prior; Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v -14.5% prior
• 15:30 (US) Fed's Barkin (hawk, non-voter)
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
• 18:30 (US) Fed's Bullard (voter, dove) gives welcoming remarks at Lecture in St. Louis

UK CBI reported sales dropped sharply to -42 in June, down from -27 and way off expectation of -3. That is, 16% of retailers said sales volumes were up in June of a year ago. 58% said they were down. It also indicates that retail sales volumes fell at their fastest pace since March 2009 in the year to June

CBI said: "Recent data suggests UK economic growth has slowed noticeably in the second quarter of 2019, as the boost from stockpiling activities in Q1 fades. We expect the UK to return to a subdued growth path further ahead, although risks from Brexit uncertainty and global trade tensions remain heightened."

Full release here.