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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2922; (P) 1.2945; (R1) 1.2968; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.3013 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, below 1.2869 will bring deeper correction. But downside should be contained above 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099 towards 1.3433 high.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8794; (P) 0.8814; (R1) 0.8829; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 0.8757 is still extending. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.26; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.79; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Corrective recovery from 146.52 should have completed at 151.20. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 146.52 low next. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 151.23/9 holds in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7146; (P) 1.7189; (R1) 1.7273; More...

EUR/AUD's rally accelerates today and break of 1.7270 resistance indicates that correction from 1.7417 has already completed at 1.7047. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.7417. Form break there will resume larger up trend, and target 61.8% projection of 1.6355 to 1.7417 from 1.7047 at 1.7703. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.7047 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming and should target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.7682, which is also close to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.7691. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.6800 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6275; (P) 0.6293; (R1) 0.6306; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside with break of 0.6257 support. Fall from 0.6390 should now target 0.6186 next. Firm break there e will indicate that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has completed and larger fall from 0.6941 is ready to resume. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6329 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6467) holds.

Risk aversion is sweeping through global financial markets today, with equities across Asia and Europe plunging ahead of the US's so-called tariff “Liberation Day” on April 2. The selloff began in Asia, and continued through European Session. US futures are also pointing sharply lower, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ bearing the brunt of the pressure. Meanwhile, Gold continues to surge, with prices pushing above 3120 and showing no signs of slowing.

Currency markets reflect the prevailing risk-off tone, with Yen leading gains as investors seek refuge. Dollar and Sterling are also relatively firm. Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are the weakest performers. Euro and Swiss Franc are trading mixed in the middle.

Australia’s RBA decision tomorrow will be in focus, though it's unlikely to trigger fireworks. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 4.10%, emphasizing its vigilance on inflation while pushing back on expectations for a rapid easing cycle.

The big four banks are split on the path forward. CBA, Westpac, and NAB anticipate three more RBA cuts this year starting in May, subject to Australia's Q1 CPI report due April 2. ANZ, on the other hand, sees just one more cut in August, which would leave the cash rate at 3.85%.

Technically, Nikkei broke through 35987.13 to resume the decline from 40398.23. The development affirms that case that corrective pattern from 42426.77 (2024 high) is already in its third leg. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 40398.23 to 35987.13 from 38220.69 at 35494.62 could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 33809.58. If realized, the next fall in Nikkei would likely be accompanied by another down leg in USD/JPY.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -1.26%. DAX is down -1.73%. CAC is down -1.71%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.051 at 4.660. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.04 at 2.695. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -4.05%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.31%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.46%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.066 to 1.488.

ECB Lagarde: Europe must march toward economic independence amid tariff threats

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for Europe to assert more control over its economic future in light of looming US tariffs, set to begin on April 2.

In a France Inter radio interview, Lagarde reframed the narrative around “Liberation Day,” saying that while the US sees it as a move toward sovereignty, Europe must seize it as an inflection point—“a march toward independence.”

Lagarde reiterated her previous estimates that tariffs from the US could shave around 0.3% off Eurozone growth in the first year. Should Europe retaliate with reciprocal measures, the negative impact could deepen to as much as 0.5%.

On inflation, Lagarde noted that keeping it in check remains a “constant battle.” She stressed that while some progress has been made, inflation needs to fall in a sustainable way. That, she said, requires a carefully calibrated interest rate policy.

ECB’s Panetta: Uncertainty demands caution on rate cuts

Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta warned that the battle against inflation "cannot yet be said to be over." and urged caution in the timing of interest rate cuts.

In a speech today, Panetta pointed to the heightened uncertainty stemming from “contradictory” announcements on US trade policy, suggesting that such unpredictability complicates the ECB’s path forward. As a result, the central bank must continue to monitor "all the factors that could hinder the return to the 2% target"

Panetta emphasized the balancing act the ECB now faces. On one hand, subdued consumption and investment, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak Eurozone growth, are helping to ease inflationary pressures.

But on the other hand, the resurgence of uncertainty—particularly around US tariffs—means the ECB must remain vigilant and not rush into policy loosening.

Japan's industrial production beats with 2.5% mom growth in Feb

Japan's industrial production rose 2.5% mom in February, beating market expectations of 1.9% mom gain. The strong growth was driven by key tech-related sectors, with chipmaking machinery output jumping 8.2% and electronic parts and devices surging 10.1%.

A survey by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projects continued, albeit modest, gains in output of 0.6% mom in March and 0.1% mom in April.

While the headline data is encouraging, the METI acknowledged that the outlook could quickly shift. Though no direct production impact from the proposed US tariffs has been reported yet, METI emphasized the need to monitor the situation more closely going forward.

On the consumer side, retail sales grew just 1.4% yoy, missing expectations of a 2.4% rise.

NZ ANZ business confidence dips to 57.5, rising inflation expectations stir doubts over RBNZ cuts

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence dipped slightly from 58.4 to 57.5 in March. Own Activity Outlook improved from 45.1 to 48.6.

However, the data also brought a clear warning on inflationary pressures. Cost expectations surged from 71.3 to 74.1, the highest level in a year. Pricing intentions climbed from 46.2 to 51.3, marking the strongest since May 2023.

Perhaps more importantly, one-year inflation expectations also ticked up from 2.53% to 2.63%, inching further above the RBNZ’s 2% midpoint target.

ANZ flagged the rising inflation signals as “a little disconcerting,” cautioning that these developments could influence how enthusiastic RBNZ will be about delivering further rate cuts.

A rate cut at the April meeting appears locked in, and a second in May is viewed as likely. However, ANZ noted that the odds of a third cut in July are now “more of a coin toss.”

China’s official PMI manufacturing rises to 50.5, but labor market lags

China’s official PMI data for March offered modest optimism, with the manufacturing index rising from 50.2 to 50.5, matching expectations and marking its highest level in a year.

Sub-indices for production and new orders both improved to 52.6 and 51.8, respectively. However, employment index slipped to 48.2, highlighting persistent weakness in labor market conditions within the manufacturing sector.

Non-manufacturing activity also improved slightly, with the PMI climbing from 50.4 to 50.8, beating expectations of 50.5.

Still, employment in the non-manufacturing sector deteriorated, with the index falling to 45.8, as both the services and construction sectors shed workers.

AUD/USD Mid-Day Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6275; (P) 0.6293; (R1) 0.6306; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside with break of 0.6257 support. Fall from 0.6390 should now target 0.6186 next. Firm break there e will indicate that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has completed and larger fall from 0.6941 is ready to resume. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6329 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6467) holds.

AUD/USD declined below the 0.6320 and 0.6300 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5700.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6320 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6300 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.5760 resistance zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5715 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6330 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6300 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

The pair even settled below 0.6280 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6270. A low was formed at 0.6269 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6295 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6312 swing high to the 0.6269 low.

There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6300. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6312 swing high to the 0.6269 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.6310 zone, above which the price could rise toward 0.6320.

Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6330 resistance. A close above the 0.6330 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6380.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6270 zone. The next support sits at 0.6260. If there is a downside break below 0.6260, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6200. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6165 support.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.5760 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.5725 against the US Dollar.

The pair settled below the 0.5720 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 0.5695 zone and is currently consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5736 swing high to the 0.5693 low at 0.5715. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5715.

The next resistance is the 0.5725 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5736 swing high to the 0.5693 low. If there is a move above 0.5725, the pair could rise toward 0.5750.

Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.5800 resistance zone in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.5705 level.

The next major support is near the 0.5695 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.5695, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.5665 level. The next key support is near 0.5640.

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Gold surged through round-figure barrier at $3100 and hit new record high on Monday, with growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty continuing to strongly boost safe haven demand.

US import tariffs which are due to start on Apr 2 and anticipated damage on global economy from escalation of trade war, as well as fragile geopolitical situation are expected to continue to fuel migration into safety.

The yellow metal’s price remains in a steep uptrend from $2000 zone and is on track for the biggest monthly gain in 14 years in March and also for the biggest quarterly advance in nearly four decades (over 18%).

Next targets lay at $3156, $3173 (Fibo projections) and $3200 (psychological).

Overbought daily studies suggest that bulls may take a breather with dips likely to be shallow on strong bullish sentiment.

Broken $3100 level reverted to initial support, followed by former top ($3057) and rising 10DMA (3045) guarding lower breakpoint at $3000.

Res: 3127; 3156; 3173; 3200.
Sup: 3010; 3057; 3045; 3017.

Market Picture

Crypto market capitalisation has fallen 1.3% in the last 24 hours and around 6.5% over the weekend, pulling back towards the lows of three weeks ago. The sell-off intensified after a failed attempt to climb above the 200-day average. It may turn out that the market’s recovery from 11 to 26 March was a rebound after a decline. A $2.56 trillion plunge below the March 11 lows could confirm this bearish scenario.

Bitcoin has pulled back below $82,000, having lost over 6% since Friday, when a sell-off in stock markets dampened enthusiastic sentiment. On Monday, the pressure in the markets remains, forcing us to consider BTC’s return below $80000 as the main scenario for the near term. Deepening below would open the way to $68000-72000, triggering a broader institutional sell-off.

XRP is moving down despite reports of Ripple and SEC proceedings ending. The coin’s price has pulled back to $2.05, testing the support area near where the reversal has been taking place since early December. A failure of this support is very likely due to the negative sentiment in the larger markets. But in this case, there is a risk of the start of a large capitulation, capable of taking up to 70% of the current price.

News Background

According to SoSoValue data, net inflows into spot bitcoin-ETFs almost quadrupled last week to $196.5 million to cumulative inflows since the approval of bitcoin-ETFs to $36.24bn. Net outflows from the ETH-ETF amounted to $8.6 million, decreasing the total inflow since this ETF’s launch to $2.41 billion.

CryptoQuant believes crypto funds are ‘at a critical turning point.’ Institutions are shaking up their portfolios and de-risking due to macroeconomic uncertainty, which is having a major impact on Bitcoin.

The US SEC has dropped lawsuits against cryptocurrency companies Kraken, ConsenSys and Cumberland. The cases have been dismissed due to ‘bias,’ making it impossible to re-file them.

Tron founder Justin Sun appeared on the cover of Forbes, becoming the second Chinese person after Jack Ma to be featured on the magazine’s cover. The news was met with wariness in the community, as in the past, the appearance of crypto industry representatives in Forbes was accompanied by a market decline.

Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta warned that the battle against inflation "cannot yet be said to be over." and urged caution in the timing of interest rate cuts.

In a speech today, Panetta pointed to the heightened uncertainty stemming from “contradictory” announcements on US trade policy, suggesting that such unpredictability complicates the ECB’s path forward. As a result, the central bank must continue to monitor "all the factors that could hinder the return to the 2% target"

Panetta emphasized the balancing act the ECB now faces. On one hand, subdued consumption and investment, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak Eurozone growth, are helping to ease inflationary pressures.

But on the other hand, the resurgence of uncertainty—particularly around US tariffs—means the ECB must remain vigilant and not rush into policy loosening.