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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.57% against the USD and closed at USD14.18 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.14, with silver trading 0.32% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.05, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 13.98. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.37.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.36% against the USD and closed at USD68.71 per barrel, amid worries over demand outlook pressured by US sanctions on Iranian oil and mounting US-China trade tensions.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 68.58, with oil trading 0.19% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 68.17, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 67.75. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 69.36, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 70.13.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1635; (P) 1.1668; (R1) 1.1717; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 1.1300 could extend through 1.1733 resistance. But we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1525 support will indicate completion of this corrective rebound. Retest of 1.1300 low should then be seen. However, firm break of 1.1779 will extend the rise to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we'd expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3091; (P) 1.3128; (R1) 1.3197; More...

GBP/USD hit as high as 1.3164 so far, just inch below 100% projection of 1.2661 to 1.3042 from 1.2784 at 1.3165. At this point, further rise could be seen. But as rise from 1.2661 is seen as a corrective move, upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3042 resistance turn support will argue that rebound from 1.2661 might be completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2784 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9647; (P) 0.9662; (R1) 0.9689; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside. Current fall from 1.0067 should target 0.9523 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 0.9678 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9757 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don't expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.70; (P) 111.92; (R1) 112.07; More...

Despite a brief retreat, outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and further rise is expected. Current rebound from 109.76 should target 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.10, however, will argue that the rebound is completed. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 110.37 support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3012; (P) 1.3031; (R1) 1.3061; More...

USD/CAD is staying in tight range above 1.2975 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2886 already. On the upside, above 1.3077 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3225 resistance first. Break will reaffirm our bullish view and target 1.3385 high. On the downside, in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.2886 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. On the downside, as long as 1.2886 support holds, outlook will now remain bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7148; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7203; More...

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7084/7228 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.7084 short term bottom could extend through 0.7228. But it's seen as a correction and upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We'll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

The new round of tariffs on China's imports to the US was finally formalized. Dollar got a brief lift but there was no further buying. The impacts on the markets quick faded and what's next will depend on China's counter-measures, which were already spelled out long ago. In the currency markets, major pairs and crosses are bounded yesterday's range at the time of writing. Yen is notably the weaker one while Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest ones.

Asian stocks are pretty calm in reaction to the trade war escalation. Indeed, at the time of writing, Nikkei is trading up over 1.5%, with solid buying throughout the day. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.74% while Singapore Strait Times is down -0.58%. China Shanghai SSE is down just -0.12% at 2648.5. Key support level at 2638 (2016 low) is still safe, even though it's vulnerable. Gold lost 1200 again but is holding firm in range of 1187.58/1214.30 and maintains near term bullishness. USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) edged higher to 6.8930 earlier today but there is no follow through buying to push it through 6.8959 minor resistance yet.

Technically, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are extending recent rally while USD/CHF is also extending recent fall. Euro is still in range in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. Respective levels at 1.1733 and 131.00 need to be taken out to indicate rise resumption. AUD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY are stuck in familiar range.

USTR announced 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, to increase to 25% on Jan 1 2019

US Trade Representative finally announced the tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports, effective September 24, 2018. The initial tariff rate is 10%. Staring January 1, 2019, the tariff rate will be increased to 25%. The list of products covers 5745 lines of the original 6031 lines proposed back in July 10. 297 lines were fully or partially removed from the list. Products include consumer electronics, certain chemical inputs for manufactured goods, textiles and agriculture; certain health and safety products such as bicycle helmets, and child safety furniture such as car seats and playpens.

The tariffs were part of the follow-up actions on Section 301 investigations. China's unfair trade practices were repeated in the statement. These include, forced technology transfer, depriving UA companies to set market based terms in negotiations, unfairly facilitating systematic investment in acquisition of US technology companies, and cyber intrusions to US commercial computer networks for valuable business information.

Trump warned in a statement that new round of tariffs on around USD 267B of additional imports will be pursued if China retaliates. He added that "we have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly." "But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices."

Responses on tariffs: Trump did not heed American warnings

Here are some responses from the industry on Trump's tariffs on China:

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Thomas Donohue said in a statement, "today's decision makes clear that the administration did not heed the numerous warnings from American consumers and businesses about rising costs and lost jobs on Main Street, in factories, and on farms and ranches across the country. "

Dean Garfield, president of the Information Technology Industry Council said in a statement, "President Trump's decision to impose an additional $200 billion is reckless and will create lasting harm to communities across the country."

Hun Quach, the Retail Industry Leaders Association's s vice president for international trade said in a statement, "we are extremely discouraged by the Administration's announcement to levy tariffs on millions of products American consumers buy every day." "We are disappointed to see that warnings from importers and exporters representing every sector of the U.S. economy have not been heeded with no time for mitigation."

Jay Timmons, National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) President and CEO, said in a statement "more U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliation risk undoing that progress and moving our economy in the wrong direction." "Now is the time for talks—not just tariffs".

China CSRC Fang: Trump's tactic won't work with China

Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) criticized that the Trump's new round of tariffs on China has "poisoned" the atmosphere for negotiations. Fang also warned that "President Trump is a hard-hitting businessman, and he tries to put pressure on China so he can get concessions from our negotiations. I think that kind of tactic is not going to work with China." Also, according to Fang, "if he puts tariffs on all Chinese exports to the United States - which he says he will - even in that scenario, the negative impact on China's economy is about 0.7 percent."

Separately, the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported, citing unnamed source, that China will not send delegation to the US for more trade talks after the new round of tariffs.

All in all, what's next will depend on the outcome of Vice Premier Liu He's meeting in Beijing on the issue.

Canada Trudeau on NAFTA: Might be days or weeks away ... it might not be

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said yesterday that she will go to Washington again for more NAFTA talks this week. But the data is not fixed yet. She told reporters "we agreed we would continue to talk in Washington later this week ... there are some conversations it's better to have face-to-face and I think it's absolutely the right thing for us to meet this week." But no details were given.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated again that he's prepared if NAFTA talks breaks down. He said "We're not there yet ... we might be days or weeks away now, it might not be." And he insisted in protecting "supply management" which is one of the deadlock in the negotiations. The so-called supply management system of import tariffs and production limits that ensure high prices for dairy, egg and poultry product in Canada.

RBA minutes reiterated no strong case for near term rate move

The minutes of September 4 RBA meeting provided practically no surprise at all. most importantly, RBA reiterated that "the next move in the cash rate would more likely be an increase than a decrease." However, "there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy."

RBA also noted that a few global central banks including the Fed were expected to continuing rate hikes. This had been reflected in the markets, "most notably a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar" that "raised risks" for some, especially for "fragile emerging" markets. However, "the modest depreciation of the Australian dollar was helpful for domestic economic growth."

The central bank also noted that there were "still significant tensions around global trade policy" that represented a "material risk" to the global outlook.

Also from Australia, house price index dropped -0.7% qoq in Q2, matched expectations.

Looking ahead

The economic calendar is not too busy today. Canada manufacturing sales and US NAHB housing index will be featured.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7148; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7203; More...

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7084/7228 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.7084 short term bottom could extend through 0.7228. But it's seen as a correction and upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We'll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Economic Indicators Update

Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) criticized that the Trump's new round of tariffs on China has "poisoned" the atmosphere for negotiations. Fang also warned that "President Trump is a hard-hitting businessman, and he tries to put pressure on China so he can get concessions from our negotiations. I think that kind of tactic is not going to work with China." Also, according to Fang, "if he puts tariffs on all Chinese exports to the United States - which he says he will - even in that scenario, the negative impact on China's economy is about 0.7 percent."

Separately, the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported, citing unnamed source, that China will not send delegation to the US for more trade talks after the new round of tariffs.

All in all, what's next will depend on the outcome of Vice Premier Liu He's meeting in Beijing on the issue.