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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1763; (P) 1.1808 (R1) 1.1854; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the momentum. Current fall from 1.2555 is in progress for 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next. Break will target 1.1553 support. On the upside, break of 1.1995 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2162) holds.

While GBP is the star performer today, the weekly top movers table shows CAD is the real strong one. CADJPY's break of 86.05 resistance last week confirmed up trend resumption. That's consistent with our view here on Monday that CAD/JPY was a better choice for trend trading than EUR/JPY.

The framework of using just the top movers table, heat map and action bias could be used to identify, or rule out, trend trading candidates. For counter trend trading, the results of the frame work are less accurate, just as our views on GBPCHF and NZDUSD reversals were wrong. But reversals are harder to call anyway.

CADJPY Action Bias table and D Action Bias chart are both consistent with the view that rise from 80.52 is extending, and with solid momentum.

Back to the regular bar chart, CADJPY is now reading to target 61.8% projection of 80.52 to 85.75 from 83.88 at 87.11. Near term bullishness will remain as long as 85.57 support holds, in case of retreat.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.1815, dragged by political turmoil in the Euro-zone’s third largest economy, Italy.

On the economic front, the Euro-zone’s final consumer price index (CPI) advanced 1.2% on an annual basis in April, confirming the preliminary print. The CPI had registered a rise of 1.3% in the previous month.

Separately, final reading of German consumer prices recorded a rise of 1.6% on an annual basis in April, confirming the preliminary print and compared to a similar rise in the prior month.

Macroeconomic data released in the US indicated that housing starts declined 3.7% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1287.0K in April, more than market consensus for a fall to a level of 1310.0K. Housing starts had recorded a revised reading of 1336.0K in the previous month. Also, the nation’s building permits eased less-than-anticipated by 1.8% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1352.0K in April, compared to market consensus for a fall to a level of 1350.0K. Building permits had recorded a revised level of 1377.0K in the prior month.

On the other hand, the nation’s industrial production climbed 0.7% MoM in April, exceeding market expectations for a rise of 0.6% and rising for the third straight month. In the prior month, industrial production had registered a revised similar rise. Moreover, the nation’s manufacturing production climbed 0.5% on a monthly basis in April, in line with market expectations. In the previous month, manufacturing production had recorded a revised flat reading.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1833, with the EUR trading 0.15% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1780, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1727. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1870, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1907.

Moving ahead, investors would look forward to the Euro-zone’s construction output data for March, set to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US initial jobless claims, followed by Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey for May and leading index for April, all slated to release later in the day, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.3524.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3565, with the GBP trading 0.30% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3491, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3417. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3604, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3643.

Looking forward, market participants would await a speech by the Bank of England’s (BoE) Chief Economist, Andrew Haldane, due later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 110.32.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.15, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Data released overnight revealed that Japan's machinery orders eased 3.9% on a monthly basis in March, more than market expectations for a fall of 3.0%. Machinery orders had climbed 2.1% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 109.99, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.83. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.36, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.57.

Going ahead, Japan's national consumer price index for April, set to release overnight, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 1.0007.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9990, with the USD trading 0.17% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9977, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9964. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0011, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0032.

With no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investors would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.71% against the CAD and closed at 1.2783.

In economic news, Canada’s manufacturing shipments grew more-than-estimated by 1.4% on a monthly basis in March, compared to a revised gain of 2.7% in the prior month, while markets were expecting for a rise of 0.9%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2754, with the USD trading 0.23% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2713, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2671. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2833, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2911.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.68% against the USD and closed at 0.7521.

LME Copper prices declined 0.72% or $49.0/MT to $6773.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.28% or $6.5/MT to $2319.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7545, with the AUD trading 0.32% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Early morning data showed that Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly advanced to a nine-month high level of 5.6% in April, defying market consensus for it to remain steady at 5.5%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7485, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7424. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7577, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7608.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3451; (P) 1.3495; (R1) 1.3535; More...

GBP/USD's strong recovery, with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, suggests temporary bottoming again at 1.3450, ahead of 1.3448 fibonacci level. Intraday bias is turned neutral again as fall from 1.4376 failed to resume. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3607 minor resistance holds and deeper decline is expected. Firm break of 1.3448 will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.2874. However, break of 1.3607 will indicate near term bottoming, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3815).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3815) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.13% against the USD and closed at USD1290.30 per ounce, as strength in global equities dented demand for the precious yellow metal.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1292.70, with gold trading 0.19% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1286.80, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1280.90. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1297.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1302.30.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.