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In a speeched titled "Past and future of the ECB monetary policy", ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio reviewed the four phases in the ECB journey since 1999. They are the beginning, pre-crisis, global financi crisis and great recesssion, and ultra-low and QE. And after going through the journey, the "new unconventional instruments, along with forward guidance, negative rates and reverse repos belong now to the monetary policy toolkit to be used whenever necessary." And ECB will have "no excuse" no to fulfil its mandate.

ECB has also joined the "community of central banks of other major jurisdictions using flexible inflation targeting regimes and asset purchases as non-standard measures." ECB is now a "modern, effective and prepared central bank to serve the goals of monetary union."

Full speech here

The EURJPY pair fell further this week, breaking its moving averages after moving below its uptrend line last week. The 130.000 level is now the next support area traders are watching. A loss of this area puts the focus on the previous lows at 129.604 and 128.943. A move down to 128.783 could find buyers but retesting this level may only give a weak bounce this time, with a retest of resistance confirming the bearish continuation pattern and targeting 125.500 in extension.

Resistance today comes in at 131.000 and the 200 DMA at 131.108. A break higher from here would likely retest 131.800 and the 50 and 100 DMAs at 131.878 and 132.112 respectively. A move to the previous high at 133.500 could see shorts squeezed and a dash to 135.000 or higher to 136.300. The 137.500 level is the ultimate target for longs.

GER30 Index

The index has been pushed higher from Wednesday’s breakout, with a back-test of the supporting area, formally resistance, shown on the chart. The current action shows the price in a holding pattern as it awaits Non-farm payrolls and wage data from the US today. USD has been driving some of the moves, with EURUSD falling and boosting DAX longs. Whether this advance succeeds or not will pivot on the reaction to this event today. A continued move higher targets 12900.00 and 13000.00, followed by 13350.00 and the previous highs at 13535.00 and 13600.00.

Supports fill the area between 12680.00 and 12470.00, with a higher low at 12309.50. A loss of this area puts bears back in control and free to target 12000.00 and the rising blue trend line at 11854.00. Further support is found at 11681.20 and the supporting trend line at 11575.00.

The euro has reversed back towards the 1.1950 level against the U.S dollar, after the eurozone economy posted weaker than expected monthly Retail Sales and Manufacturing data. The EURUSD pair currently trades around the 1.1960 level, after being sold from just below the 1.2000 handle earlier today. Traders now await the U.S Nonfarm Payrolls Job report, which should provide market moving volatility before the May Bank Holiday weekend.

The EURUSD pair remains bearish while trading below the 1.2000 level, key technical support is now found at the 1.1936 and 1.1884 levels.

If the EURUSD pair starts to trade back above the 1.2000 level, buyers may be inclined to test the 1.2013 and 1.2053 resistance levels.

The British pound continues to trade to the downside against the U.S dollar, after the pair was sold-off from the 1.3589 level during the European trading session. The GBPUSD pair currently trades around the 1.3550 region, with sterling’s 200-day moving average coming back into focus, at 1.3532. Traders now look towards the release of the U.S Nonfarm Payrolls jobs report, with medium-term selling pressures continuing to build.

The GBPUSD pair remains bearish while trading below the 1.3600 level, further losses towards 1.3532 and 1.3493 levels remain possible.

If the GBPUSD pair can break back above the 1.3600 level today, we may see buyers test towards the 1.3665 and 1.3710 levels.

The USDTRY pair remains in steep ascend which extends into fifth straight day and hit new all-time high at 4.2897 on Friday. Strong fall of lira is unlikely to stop soon as bears took out easily round-figure barriers (4.20/ / 4.25) which usually act as strong obstacles. In addition, lira's strong bearish sentiment which was boosted by recent CBRT policy decision and stronger than expected jump in inflation (Thursday) adds to negative outlook. Lira is also on track for huge weekly loss (the biggest weekly fall since mid-Oct 2008) which is expected to heavily weigh on currency's short-term action. Better than expected US jobs data could boost the greenback and further depress Turkish lira that could result in break above psychological 4.30 barrier. Break through 4.30 would open Fibonacci projections at 4.3101 (161.8%) and 4.3824 (200%), with stronger bullish acceleration expected to bring another strong psychological barrier at 4.50. Bullish daily / weekly techs continue to drive the pair higher, ignoring so far overbought conditions, but some corrective action could be anticipated in coming session.

Res: 4.2897, 4.3000, 4.3101, 4.3824
Sup: 4.2500, 4.2115, 4.1932, 4.1552

In an editorial in the official China Xinhua, it's set that China and the US "reached agreements" on some issues in the trade talks. And both sides agreed to set up a "work mechanism" to keep close communications.

But there are "considerable differences" that still exist on some issues and "continued hard work is required for more progress".

If one looks up the hourly charts of the EUR/USD currency pair, it can be clearly spotted that the currency pair following the recent rebound against a dominant support has been stopped.

The pair's surge was stopped by the upper trend line of a junior channel pattern just below the 1.20 mark. The event has resulted in the rates decline that on Friday morning had declined below two resistance levels near the 1.1980 level.

In regards to the near future, the pair was expected to make another attempt to pass the dominant support line below the 1.1940 mark.

Following the reaching of the support cluster near the 1.3580 mark, the GBP/USD currency pair eventually passed it at the middle of Thursday's trading session. However, the rate's decline eventually was paused by a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.3539 level.

On Friday the rate was about to get squeezed in between the both mentioned levels. Although, it was expected that the rate will eventually continue its decline, as additional resistance in the form of the 55-hour SMA was approaching.

The recent decline of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is still being seen as a temporary junior move in the borders of a larger ascending pattern. However, on Friday the decline could have been mapped by using a rather medium scale descending pattern.

The Pattern was set to guide the currency exchange rate down to the combined support of the weekly pivot point near 108.75. Moreover, the pivot line was about to be strengthened by the lower trend line of the dominant pattern.

Most likely the rate would rebound against the just described support levels.

The yellow metal has broken the previously drawn junior ascending pattern. However, it extended its gains during Thursday's trading sessions before finally being stopped by the 200-hour simple moving average.

On Friday morning the commodity had been pushed down below various levels of significance, which were located from the 1,310 to 1,320 levels. It could have been clearly spotted that, if the 55-hour SMA would get passed, the commodity might once more reach for the strong support cluster, which was located just above the 1,301 mark.