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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2834; (P) 1.2860; (R1) 1.2899; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2896 temporary top. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained by 1.2748 minor support to bring another rise. Above 1.2896 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3124 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.2748 will turn focus back to 1.2526 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7536; (P) 0.7562; (R1) 0.7578; More...

AUD/USD's decline continues despite losing downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7500 key support level. Decisive break there will indicate medium term reversal and target 0.7328 support next. On the upside, above 0.7620 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2063; (P) 1.2136 (R1) 1.2176; More....

EUR/USD reaches as low as 1.2095 as decline accelerated after breaking 1.2154 key support. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991 first. Break will target 200% projection at 11891. On the upside, break of 1.2209 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We'll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it's an impulsive or corrective move.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9840; (P) 0.9867; (R1) 0.9919; More...

USD/CHF's rally extends to as high as 0.9895 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Break of 0.9900 medium term fibonacci level will target 1.0037 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9815 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained above 0.9648 resistance turned support to bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626 suggests that it's likely completed at 0.9186 already. Further rally would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. Sustained break there would pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 0.9576 support holds.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.09; (P) 109.27; (R1) 109.49; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 109.47 temporary top. Deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 109.47 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.47).

Aussie Trading A Tad Higher This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.17% against the USD and closed at 0.7555.

LME Copper prices declined 1.08% or $75.0/MT to $6885.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.96% or $44.0/MT to $2204.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7557, with the AUD trading slightly higher from yesterday's close.

Australia's producer price index (PPI) advanced 0.5% QoQ in the first three months of 2018, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the prior quarter.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7534, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7512. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7584, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7612.

Next week, investors would focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy decision.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

ECB Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged At 0.00%, Flags Confidence Over Growth Outlook

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.53% against the USD and closed at 1.2105, after the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief, Mario Draghi, acknowledged recent softness in the Euro-zone economy.

The ECB, at its April monetary policy meeting, decided to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 0.00%, amid indications of an apparent slowdown in the Eurozone's growth momentum. In a statement post-meeting, the ECB President, Mario Draghi, argued that growth in the common currency region remained strong but acknowledged evidence of a “moderation” in the exceptional growth pace seen last year. Further, the Governing Council remained confident that underlying strength in the economy will help inflation converge towards the central bank's 2.0% target in the near-term.

Separately, data indicated that Germany's GfK consumer confidence index eased to a level of 10.8 in May, meeting market expectations. The index had registered a level of 10.9 in the previous month.

The US Dollar advanced against a basket of major currencies, following a slew of upbeat economic releases in the US.

Data indicated that advance goods trade deficit in the US narrowed more-than-anticipated to $68.0 billion in March, dropping for the first time in 7 months, amid strong growth in exports. The nation had posted a revised deficit of $75.9 billion in the prior month, while investors had envisaged it to narrow to $75.0 billion. Moreover, the nation's flash durable goods orders rose 2.6% on a monthly basis in March, topping market expectations for a rise of 1.6%. In the prior month, durable goods orders had advanced by a revised 3.0%.

In other economic news, the US initial jobless claims dropped to a more than 48-year low level of 209.0K in the week ended 21 April, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 230.0K. In the previous week, initial jobless claims had recorded a revised reading of 233.0K.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2112, with the EUR trading 0.06% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2069, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2025. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2183, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2253.

Going ahead, investors would look forward to the Euro-zone's final consumer confidence index as well as Germany's unemployment rate data, both for April, slated to release in a few hours. Also, the US 1Q GDP numbers and the final Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, will garner significant amount of market attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Pound Trading Higher, Ahead Of Crucial UK 1Q GDP Numbers

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.3915.

On the data front, Britain’s BBA mortgage approvals dropped to a level of 37.56K in March, compared to a revised reading of 38.03K in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3925, with the GBP trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3881, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3836. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3984, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4042.

Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of UK’s flash 1Q GDP figures, due to release in a few hours. Moreover, a speech by the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, will be closely monitored by market participants.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Japan’s Jobless Rate Remained Steady In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 109.35.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 109.17, with the USD trading 0.16% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Data released overnight showed that Japan's unemployment rate remained steady at 2.5% in March, meeting market expectations.

In other economic news, the nation's preliminary industrial production climbed 1.2% on a monthly basis in March, exceeding market expectations for an advance of 0.5%. Industrial production had registered a flat reading in the prior month. Further, the nation's retail trade unexpectedly eased 0.7% on a monthly basis in March, confounding market expectations for a flat reading. Retail trade had climbed 0.4% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 109.02, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.57.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading Flat In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.62% against the CHF and closed at 0.9891.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9891, with the USD trading flat against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9840, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9788. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9920, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9948.

Ahead in the day, a speech by the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) President, Thomas Jordan, will be eyed by market participants.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.