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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7575; (P) 0.7628; (R1) 0.7658; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside. Current fall is part of the whole decline from 0.8135 and should target 0.7500 key support level next. Break there will indicate medium term reversal. On the upside, above 0.7682 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2774; (P) 1.2816; (R1) 1.2890; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. The rise from 1.2526 is expected to extend to 1.3124 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2749 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But for now, further rise will be expected as long as 1.2526 support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.98; (P) 108.36; (R1) 109.08; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current development suggests that medium term trend is possibly reversing. Further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 107.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.47).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9749; (P) 0.9768; (R1) 0.9801; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 0.9186 should extend to 0.9900 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 0.9733 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9576 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626 suggests that it's likely completed at 0.9186 already. Further rally would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. Sustained break there would pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 0.9576 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3899; (P) 1.3965; (R1) 1.4004; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.4376 is in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.3711 key support level. On the upside, above 1.4030 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But for now, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.4114 holds).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD is raising the chance of medium term reversal. Also, note that GBP/USD has just failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4257). Focus is back on 1.3711 support. Firm break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. For now, sustained break of 55 month EMA is needed to confirm medium term upside momentum. Otherwise, we won't turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.

USDX Elliott Wave view in short-term cycle suggests that the decline to 89.22 ended Intermediate wave (B) as Elliott Wave Zigzag correction. Above from there, Intermediate wave (C) remains in progress as Elliott Wave Impulsive sequence with extension looking for further extension higher. The internal distribution of each leg consists of 5 waves structure with extension in the third wave thus we favor the structure to be an impulsive sequence.

Up from 89.22 low, Minor wave 1 of (C) ended in 5 waves at 89.66, Minor wave 2 ended as a Flat at 89.45 low. Then above from there Minor wave 3 remains in progress. The internal of Minor wave 3 is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave sequence with extension where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 89.72, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 89.51, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 90.47 high, and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 90.21 low. Above from there, Minute wave ((v)) of 3 remains in progress looking to extend higher 1 more push towards 91.17 – 91.40 area approximately to end 5 waves in Minor wave 3. Afterwards, the index should do a Minor wave 4 pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling it into a proposed pullback.

USDX Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.86% against the USD and closed at 0.7605.

LME Copper prices declined 0.23% or $16.0/MT to $6923.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.45% or $11.0/MT to $2452.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7612, with the AUD trading 0.09% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data revealed that Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) advanced less-than-anticipated by 0.4% on a quarterly basis in the first three months of 2018, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the prior quarter. Markets were anticipating the CPI to climb 0.5%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7567, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7522. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7670, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7728.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.55% against the USD and closed at 1.2208, after downbeat manufacturing sector data across the Euro-zone stoked concerns about the loss of economic momentum in the common currency bloc.

Data indicated that the Euro-zone's flash Markit manufacturing PMI dropped more-than-expected to a level of 56.0 in April, hitting a 14-month low level and compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 56.1. In the prior month, the PMI had recorded a level of 56.6. On the contrary, the region's preliminary Markit services PMI registered an unexpected rise to a level of 55.0 in April, defying market consensus for a drop to a level of 54.6. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a level of 54.9.

Separately, Germany's flash Markit manufacturing PMI declined to a 9-month low level of 58.1 in April, less than market expectations for a fall to a level of 57.5. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 58.2. On the other hand, the nation's flash Markit services PMI unexpectedly advanced to a level of 54.1 in April, after recording a reading of 53.9 in the prior month, while investors had envisaged it to ease to a level of 53.7.

The US Dollar advanced against a basket of currencies, propelled by a string of upbeat economic releases in the US as well as rise in US Treasury yields.

Data indicated that the flash Markit manufacturing PMI in the US surprised on the upside, after it advanced to a more than 3-year high level of 56.5 in April, confounding market expectations for a fall to a level of 55.2. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 55.6. Moreover, the nation's preliminary Markit services PMI rose more-than-estimated to a level of 54.4 in April, compared to market expectations for an advance to a level of 54.1. In the preceding month, the PMI had registered a level of 54.0.

In other economic news, existing home sales in the US climbed 1.1% on monthly basis, to a level of 5.60 million in March, beating market expectations for a rise to a level of 5.55 million. In the previous month, existing home sales had registered a reading of 5.54 million. On the other hand, the nation's Chicago Fed national activity index eased more-than-expected to a level of 0.10 in March, while investors had expected for a drop to a level of 0.28. In the previous month, the index had recorded a revised reading of 0.98.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2211, with the EUR trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2168, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2124. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2272, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2332.

Going ahead, investors would keep a close watch on Germany's Ifo business climate and expectations indices for April, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US consumer confidence index for April and new home sales data for March, set to release later today, will be eyed by market participants.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.57% against the USD and closed at 1.3938.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3945, with the GBP trading 0.05% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3898, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3852. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4011, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4078.

Ahead in the day, UK’s public sector net borrowing data for March, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.83% against the JPY and closed at 108.7.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 108.75, with the USD trading 0.05% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.04, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.32. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.17, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.58.

Moving ahead, traders would focus on Japan’s final machine tool orders for March, due to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.