Sample Category Title

Short Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests that rally to new all time high on 12.16.2024 at 6163.75 ended wave ((3)). Pullback in wave ((4)) is proposed complete at 5808.4 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) unfolded in a double three structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave (W) ended at 5866 and wave (X) ended at 6107.5. Wave (Y) lower ended at 5809 which completed wave ((4)).

The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)), but it still needs to break above wave ((3)) at 6163.75 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 5918.5 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 5842.50. Index nested higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5898.75 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 5848.75. Wave (iii) higher ended at 6017.50 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 5961.75. Final leg wave (v) ended at 6078.25 which completed wave ((iii)). Dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 5994.5. Expect wave ((v)) to complete soon which should end wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 1.13.2025 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher.

S&P 500 Futures (ES) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

ES_F Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQydGNh_lOI

• FTSE 100 broke strong resistance level 8400.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 8600.00

FTSE 100 index rising sharply after the price broke the strong resistance level 8400.00, which is the upper border of the sideways price range inside which the index has been moving from the start of 2024.

The breakout of this price range inside accelerated the active impulse waves iii and 3, which belong to the weekly upward impulse sequence (3) from the start of 2023.

Given the overriding uptrend seen on weekly charts, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 8600.00, the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii.

• Gold under bullish pressure
• Likely to rise to resistance level 2785.00

Gold under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 2710.00, which has been steadily reversing the price from November.

The breakout of the resistance level 2710.00 accelerated the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the medium-term impulse wave (3) from December.

Given the clear uptrend that can be seen on the daily and the weekly charts, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 2785.00, former multi-month high from October.

Summary

• The FOMC cut its target rate for the federal funds rate by 100 bps between September and December. However, a pause in its easing cycle seems like a done deal when the Committee meets next on January 29.
• Not only has the economy entered 2025 with a solid head of steam, but progress on returning inflation to the Fed's target of 2% has been painfully slow in recent months. Therefore, many FOMC members seem to question the need for further policy accommodation at this time.
• The FOMC is not scheduled to release a "dot plot" at the conclusion of the meeting, so it will need to signal any policy intentions it wishes to give via the post-meeting statement and Chair Powell's press conference. We expect the FOMC will make only modest tweaks to its post-meeting statement. We also believe Chair Powell will continue to indicate that the Committee is not on a preset course, and that future policy moves will depend on incoming data.
• Looking forward, we expect the FOMC will maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% through the first half of the year. We have penciled in a 25 bps rate cut at the September policy meeting, and a similar-sized reduction in December. We then look for the FOMC to remain on hold at 3.75%-4.00% throughout 2026.
• That noted, the FOMC's policy actions in coming months will be dictated in part by policy choices, especially related to tariffs, that the Trump administration makes. In our view, uncertainty related to the new administration's economic policy imparts uncertainty onto the outlook for monetary policy.
• We have pushed back our forecast for the end of quantitative tightening (QT). We now expect the FOMC will announce the end of QT at its May meeting, one meeting later than our previous forecast. We look for balance sheet runoff to cease at the beginning of June, although MBS runoff likely will continue, with mortgage paydowns replaced one-for-one with Treasury securities.

All Signs Point to a Pause in the Easing Cycle on January 29

As we discussed in our recent U.S. Economic Outlook, the American economy entered 2025 with solid momentum. We estimate real GDP grew 2.7% (annualized rate) on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter of last year. (The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish real GDP data for Q4-2024 on January 30.) If this estimate is reasonably accurate, then real output would have expanded at a strong rate of 2.8% on an annual average basis in 2024. Moreover, job creation, which is a good coincident indicator of the pace of economic activity, remained solid as the economy created 170K jobs per month on average in the fourth quarter (Figure 1).

Meanwhile, progress on returning inflation to the Fed's target of 2% appears to have stalled. The year-over-year change in the core PCE deflator, which most Fed officials believe is the best measure of the underlying rate of consumer price inflation, fell from 5.6% in September 2022 to 2.6% in June 2024 (Figure 2). However, this rate of inflation has subsequently edged up to 2.8% in November, and we estimate it stayed at 2.8% in December.

Market participants widely expect the policymaking Committee to keep its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% at its upcoming meeting on January 29, an expectation we share. There are a few factors that support our expectation of a pause in the recent easing cycle. First, the solid pace of economic growth and disappointing news on inflation that we highlighted above argue against the need for more policy accommodation at this time.

Second, many FOMC members have indicated that pausing the easing cycle, at least for the time being, may be appropriate. Beth Hammack, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, voted against the Committee's decision to cut rates by 25 bps at the previous FOMC meeting on December 18. Three non-voting members seemed to agree with her, with a total of four participants leaving their "dot" for the appropriate policy rate at the end of last year at 4.50%-4.75%. Minutes of that meeting revealed that "a majority of participants noted that their judgments about this meeting's appropriate policy action had been finely balanced." With the economy showing few signs of deterioration since December 18, these members presumably feel even less need to cut rates further, at least at this time.

The "dot plot" that was released at the conclusion of the December 18 meeting showed that 14 of the 19 Committee members judged that a target range for the federal funds rate of 3.75%-4.00% or higher at the end of 2025 would be appropriate (Figure 3). This range is only 50 bps lower than the current one. When the previous dot plot was released in September, 17 of the 19 members judged that it would be appropriate to reduce the target range below 3.75%-4.00% by the end of this year. Clearly, there has been a significant reassessment among FOMC members about the degree of additional policy easing that is appropriate this year.

There will not be a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released at the conclusion of the meeting on January 29. Therefore, the FOMC will need to signal its intentions via the post-meeting statement and comments that Chair Powell makes in his press conference. We expect the FOMC will make only modest tweaks to its post-meeting statement relative to the one that was released on December 18. The Committee likely will continue to characterize the pace of economic growth as "solid," and it probably will continue to refer to inflation as "somewhat elevated." The last statement used the clause "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate..." to help signal the FOMC's "bias" to ease further. Because the vast majority of Committee members at the last FOMC meeting viewed some additional policy easing as appropriate in 2025, we believe the January 29 statement will retain this clause in order to preserve policy optionality. We also believe Chair Powell likely will continue to indicate that the Committee is not on some preset course, and that future policy moves will depend on incoming data.

New Voting Members on the FOMC at this Meeting

The first meeting of 2025 will include the annual shift in the voting members of the FOMC. All 19 FOMC officials participate in every Committee meeting, but only 12 get to vote on the policy decision. For the seven-member Board of Governors, there will be no changes. There are not currently any vacancies on the Board, with the next vacant seat scheduled to be Adriana Kugler's in January 2026. Governor Michael Barr intends to step down from his position as Vice Chair of Supervision effective February 28, 2025—or earlier if a successor is confirmed. However, Barr has signaled his intention to continue to serve as a member of the Board of Governors. The remaining five voters on the FOMC are drawn from the ranks of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York holding a permanent voting seat. The new 2025 voters will be Austan Goolsbee (Chicago), Susan Collins (Boston), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) and Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City). We believe the new voters include a healthy mix of policymakers with both more dovish leans (e.g., Goolsbee) and hawkish leans (e.g., Schmid), and we do not expect this year's rotation to result in a dramatic departure from the policy course that was signaled at the December FOMC meeting.

Upcoming Policy Choices of the Administration Imparts Uncertainty onto Outlook for Monetary Policy

As we also outlined in our U.S. Economic Outlook, we have made some adjustments to our forecast for Fed policy this year. Previously, we had expected the FOMC would cut rates by 25 bps at each of its meetings in March, June and September. We now think the FOMC will keep its target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until the second half of this year. We currently are forecasting a 25 bps rate cut at the September policy meeting followed by a similar-sized reduction in December (Figure 4). We then look for the Committee to remain on hold at 3.75%-4.00% throughout 2026.

That noted, the FOMC's policy actions in coming months will be dictated in part by policy choices, especially related to tariffs, that the Trump administration makes. Across-the-board tariffs on America's trading partners could lead to a modest rise in inflation this year. Higher inflation would erode growth in real income and weigh on growth in real consumer expenditures. The growth-slowing effects of tariffs could be exacerbated if foreign countries levy retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. The FOMC's response to any tariff-related effects on the U.S. economy will depend on how Committee members judge the risks to the achievement of their dual mandate (i.e., price stability and full employment). In short, the uncertainty at present that is related to the economic policy choices of the incoming administration imparts uncertainty onto the outlook for Fed policy.

QT: Expected End Date June 2025

We expect the upcoming FOMC meeting to include a preliminary discussion about the path ahead for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff program, more commonly known as quantitative tightening (QT). QT has been ongoing since June 2022, when the Federal Reserve began reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by up to $60 billion and $35 billion per month, respectively. These caps remained in place until June 2024, at which time the Committee reduced the cap for Treasury securities to $25 billion in an effort to slow, but not stop, the pace of balance sheet runoff. Those caps remain in place today.

At present, the Federal Reserve's security holdings total $6.4 trillion, a $2 trillion decline from the central bank's peak holdings in 2022. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has fallen even more as a share of GDP, declining from 35% at the peak to 23% today (Figure 5). This passive balance sheet runoff has been a secondary form of monetary policy tightening and likely has contributed to some modest upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, perhaps on the order of 20-40 bps or so.

The upshot of the reduction in the Fed's security holdings has been a reduction in the abundant liquidity in the financial system. Cash parked at the Federal Reserve, whether from banks holding reserves or money market funds and other institutions utilizing reverse repurchase agreements, has declined considerably from its peak both in dollar terms and as a share of GDP (Figure 6). The Federal Reserve aims to maintain reserves that are "ample" enough such that the financial system operates smoothly but not so ample that its balance sheet is larger than is necessary.

Identifying that Goldilocks zone of not-too-big and not-too-small involves a rigorous amount of analysis and monitoring. The Federal Reserve tracks a wide variety of indicators to assess the degree of scarcity for bank reserves. One key indicator is conditions in the market for Treasury repurchase agreements, also known as the Treasury repo market. Treasury repo transactions form the basis for the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), a benchmark lending rate in the United States.

Because SOFR is an overnight financing rate like the federal funds rate, it generally fluctuates in the FOMC's target range for the federal funds rate. SOFR generally has traded near the bottom of the fed funds target range in recent years in a sign that reserves have been more than ample (Figure 7). SOFR has printed above the top end of the target range a couple of times in recent months, including year-end when balance sheet pressures in the financial system tend to be must acute. That said, the spikes generally have been short-lived and less volatile than what occurred in the last episode of QT from 2017–2019, and they have been well-shy of the more than 300 bps blowout that occurred in September 2019. Furthermore, the effective federal funds rate has remained very stable and well-within the FOMC's desired target range. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams recently stated he saw "no signs of disruption in the repo market" as a result of ongoing QT.

Given that balance sheet runoff has gone smoothly so far, we think the Committee is inclined to let balance sheet runoff continue for a bit longer than we previously believed. We now look for QT to continue at its current pace through the end of May. Starting in June, we expect the Federal Reserve to keep its balance sheet flat through at least the end of the year. Note that even if aggregate balance sheet runoff ceases, the composition can continue to evolve. We look for MBS runoff to continue past June indefinitely as the Federal Reserve strives to reduce its mortgage holdings and slowly return to holding primarily Treasury securities. In order to keep the total balance sheet unchanged amid ongoing MBS runoff, we look for the Federal Reserve to start buying Treasury securities such that they replace MBS paydowns one-for-one.

• President Trump’s comments about potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico by February 1st caused increased market volatility and risk aversion.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced significant price swings due to uncertainty and shifting information.
• Tariffs are seen as potentially inflationary, which could reduce expectations of future rate cuts and support a stronger USD.
• The DXY broke below a key ascending trendline, suggesting potential further downside.

Yesterday the US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below a key level as more information around proposals from the Trump administration filtered through.

President Trump’s first day didn’t include clear plans for tariffs, and officials said any new taxes would be applied slowly, which was good news for currencies affected by trade. The Euro and British Pound benefitted as it appeared the Trump team had no plans for tariffs on the EU or the UK. This could of course change in the coming days.

This morning however we got some clarity on the Trump administration’s plans. President Trump told reporters his team was thinking about tariffs on Canada and Mexico by February 1 which increased concerns that his policies may not be implemented gradually after all.

This saw risk sentiment increase with the likes of Gold rising as well as markets ponder the potential impact of wider trade wars.

Currency Strength Chart: Strongest USD, JPY, CHF, EUR, GBP, NZD, AUD, CAD – Weakest

Source: FinancialJuice

Will the USD Appreciate Under President Trump?

The impact of potential tariffs can not be understated as evidenced by the sharp swings we saw yesterday. Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal report about the potential for incremental tariffs and no specifics led to US Dollar weakness, while the Mexican Peso and the Canadian Dollar were the major beneficiaries.

This trend was reversed today with another bout of volatility as President Trump floated February 1 for potential tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Some analysts suggest that the lack of clarity could be worrying as it could mean that President Trump’s economic team is working on something big. If this is the case, volatility may be just getting started.

Source: LSEG

Tariffs also bode well for a stronger USD, at least in the interim. Markets see tariffs as potentially leading to heightened inflation and thus less rate cuts. However, given that President Trump signed an order looking at the cost of living issue, these fears could be arrested in the coming months. The question is whether that will be too late?

In Trump’s first term, the US dollar had a tough time. Now though, it looks like the dollar might enjoy a better run this time around. The only thing I know for sure, is that the next few days will be very unpredictable.

It’s a relatively quiet week on the data front from the US with tariff developments and US policy likely to take center stage and drive market movements. On Friday we have the US S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI data which could add some additional volatility.

Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar index has had an interesting ride as expected to start the week. The inauguration of President Donald Trump certainly stirred volatility yesterday with some whipsaw price action experienced by the US Dollar.

A jump to the downside when markets were closed in the US session saw the DXY on the daily timeframe break below a key ascending trendline hinting at further downside ahead.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, January 21, 2025

Source: TradingView.com

Dropping down to a H4 timeframe and price is currently testing the ascending trendline which is also where the 100-day MA rests, making this a key confluence area.

price has showed an initial rejection here, showing signs that a further pullback may materialize. If this does not happen then a retest to close yesterdays gap at 1.09300 may become s areal possibility.

Immediate support rests at 108.00 with a break lower finding the 200-day MA at 107.90 before the 107.00 handle comes back into focus.

If the price continues its recovery, the USD Index could find resistance at 108.82 before the 109.30 and 110.00 handle become areas of focus.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Four-Hour (H4) Chart, January 21, 2025

Source: TradingView.com

Support

• 108.64
• 108.00
• 107.60

Resistance

• 109.00
• 109.52
• 110.00

The UK labour market figures released on Tuesday did not prevent the pound from pulling back after Monday’s increase. GBPUSD is falling by approximately 0.9% from early morning highs, reversing two-thirds of the gains following reports that Trump will not immediately implement trade barriers but will begin with a job evaluation process.

Jobless claims rose by 0.7K in December, against expectations of 10.3K. After two months of decreases totalling 36K, the trend of increasing unemployment from April to September appears to have halted.

The rate of wage growth accelerated from 5.2% to 5.6% last year, showing a positive trend from August’s 3.9%. The acceleration in wage growth could indicate potential inflationary pressures that might lead the Central Bank to adopt a less dovish stance than previously anticipated.

The coinciding timing of the local bottom in the labour market with the cycle of rate cuts starting in August is likely coincidental. Policy changes typically take several months to quarters to impact the economy.

Moreover, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the number of unemployed has been increasing for the past eight months. Alongside rising wages, this may reflect a trend of cutting lower-paid jobs, which raises the average wage growth rate but negatively impacts overall spending. The recent news of a 0.6% month-on-month decline in retail sales excluding fuel could be an early warning sign of this trend.

GBPUSD soared up to 1.2340 on Monday but fell by 90 pips to 1.2250 on Tuesday, with strong support from last April acting as resistance. This may indicate the end of the bounce as the pound lost momentum near the 61.8% retracement level of the decline from the December peak to the January low. Confirmation of strong bearish sentiment would be a return to the lows at 1.21. Falling below this level could trigger a Fibonacci extension pattern, potentially leading to a decline to 1.1660. Historically, the Pound has only been below this level for one week in March 2020 and ten weeks in the latter part of 2022.

Trump’s firm commitment to reducing the US trade deficit is benefiting bears in GBPUSD, as seen in the trends observed in 2018-2019 during periods of trade disputes.

Headline CPI inflation fell a tenth to 1.8% year-on-year (y/y) in December, pushed lower by the temporary GST/HST break that went into effect mid-month.

Approximately 10% of the All-items CPI basket was affected by the tax exemption. Main price impacts were seen in food purchased from restaurants (-1.6% y/y), booze (-1.3% y/y), toys, games, and hobby supplies (-7.2% y/y) and children's clothing (-10.6% y/y).

Shelter inflation has been a key challenge for Canadians for some time now and cooled further in December to 4.5% y/y. Rent inflation cooled slightly to 7.1% y/y from 7.7% y/y in November, and the lift from higher mortgage interest costs continued to wane (to 11.7% y/y).

For Canadians looking to escape the cold, inflation for travel-related items rose in December. Travel services prices were up 7.9% y/y, and tours rose 5.7% y/y. Even gassing up for a road trip would cost you 3.5% more relative to a year ago. The impact of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour could be seen in accommodation prices in B.C., which were up 13.6% y/y, driven by the largest month-on-month increase in the series ever (+62% m/m).

The Bank of Canada's preferred "core" inflation measures were down slightly at 2.5% y/y on average, down from 2.6% in November.

Key Implications

December's inflation data came in line with the Bank of Canada's expectations for inflation to average close to 2%. Despite the tax cut driven dip in headline inflation, core inflation pressures have picked up over the past three months, suggesting that inflation readings are likely to move up a bit in the months ahead. This will give the Bank of Canada reason to adopt a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts this year. We expect a quarter point cut at every other decision in 2025.

Tariffs on Canadian exports didn't come on day one of the new administration, but President Trump does plan to establish an "External Revenue Agency" largely to collect tariffs, and Trump reiterated threats of a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, now due on Feb 1st. This creates a very challenging backdrop for Canada's economy, and we expect the BoC to cut rates a quarter point next week, which would put interest rates further into "neutral" territory – a stance we think is warranted given relatively soft demand backdrop for Canada's economy.

Markets

All eyes are on the US dollar today. Yesterday’s sigh of relief by currencies ex-USD already went in reverse. President Trump didn’t go full-on tariff mode on day 1 in office and stopped short of announcing any. But mere hours later he very much kept the possibility afloat of levies on Canada and Mexico as soon as February 1. The USD bounced back in early Asian dealings and held on throughout the day. The trade-weighted index rose from 108 to 108.4 while EUR/USD’s adventure north of 1.04 looks to be a very short one (1.038). The Canadian Loonie and Mexican peso for obvious reasons underperformed. USD/CAD hovers near the recent highs of 1.445. USD/MXN is similarly circulating in the 20.75 area, the highest levels since mid-2022. Cyclical currencies have a tough time too. Lingering trade tensions combined with weaker commodity prices (eg. Brent below $80/barrel) pressure the likes of AUD & NZD with both reversing (part of) yesterday’s gains. The NOK suffers from lower oil prices and perhaps as well from the risk of losing the EU partially as a major customer. Trump suggested yesterday the EU could escape from tariffs if it buys more American energy. The NOK decline in any case may complicate the central bank’s upcoming monetary easing plans, with a first rate reduction up until now expected in March. The Japanese yen is the only currency able to fend off USD strength. Trump-related market volatility remains confined (so far, we should add) and that cleared the last obstacle for the Bank of Japan to raise rates a third time this Friday. Sterling loses out against both USD and EUR. The labour market report was close to expectations and as such not enough to offset last week’s set of disappointing data. Friday’s PMIs are the final chance for the pound to prevent a break above the EUR/GBP 0.845 resistance. GBP/USD sticks near 1.22. Global yields ease a few bps. It’s been a bond-friendly trading session with amongst others record bids for UK’s £8.5bn Jan2040 syndicated tap (books above £119bn) and a €134bn record demand for France’s May2042 €10bn syndicated deal. US Treasuries outperform in a first response to president Trump’s slew of executive orders yesterday. Net daily changes vary between -3 bps (2-yr) and -6.5 bps (10-yr). UK gilt yields drop 3-4 bps across the curve. German rates decline up to 2 bps. Several ECB members hit the wires before they no longer can from Thursday on. Villeroy (France) was no longer worried about inflation and expects more cuts going forward. He favours going at a steady 25 bps at every meeting so that they hit 2% by summer. This level is what Villeroy considers to be neutral. He doesn’t see the need to go below that at this stage. Slovakia’s Kazimir issued similar comments. He added that the January 30 rate cut is a done deal.

News & Views

December inflation data published by statistics Canada today were close to expectations. Headline inflation declined 0.4% compared to November causing the Y/Y measure to ease further from 1.9% to 1.8%. The monthly decline for an important part was driven by a temporary brake in the sales tax on goods such as food from restaurants and alcoholic beverages. The break applies from December 14 to February 15. Prices ex food and energy decline 0.1% M/M with the Y/Y index printing at 2.1%. Prices of clothing and footwear declined 3.0% M/M to be 4.5% lower on the same month last year. Among the factors keeping upward pressure on the global price level, shelter price inflation was 0.3%, but this only caused the Y/Y measure to decline from 4.6% to 4.5%. The core inflation measures that are closely monitored by the Bank of Canada when assessing its monetary policy slow further within the BOC inflation target band of 1%-3% to 2.4% for the core median measure and 2.5% for the trimmed mean measure. The Bank of Canada will hold its next policy meeting on January 29. At that meeting it will have new economic forecasts at its disposal. At its December meeting, the BoC for the second consecutive meeting cut its policy rate by 50 bps to 3.25%. The BoC indicated then that the ’Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time’. This suggest that the BoC might slow the pace of easing to 25 bps steps. The Canadian dollar recently suffered from the risk of tariffs potentially to be implement by the new US government. At USD/CAD 1.445, the loonie is trading within reach of the weakest levels against the US dollar since the start of the corona crisis early 2020.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0311; (P) 1.0373; (R1) 1.0478; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.0435 resistance intact, another decline is in favor. On the downside, firm break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.