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Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.85; (P) 161.59; (R1) 162.85; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. Recovery from 159.74 might extend, but further decline will remain in favor as long as 162.88 resistance holds. On the downside, below 159.74 will target 156.16 support. On the upside, however, break of 162.88 will bring retest of 164.89 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8433; (P) 0.8453; (R1) 0.8470; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside at this point. Rise fro 0.8221 is in progress for 0.8624 key cluster resistance zone. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8403 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). But outlook will be neutral as best as long as 0.8624 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621) holds. That is, larger down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) might still extend lower. However, decisive break of 0.8621/4 should confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6566; (P) 1.6606; (R1) 1.6641; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Strong support is still expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 1.6800 will resume the rally from 1.5963. However, sustained break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283 instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5995 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9405; (P) 0.9432; (R1) 0.9472; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is back on the upside with breach of 0.9440. However, strong resistance is expected from 0.9481 fibonacci level to complete the corrective rebound from 0.9204. On the downside, below 0.9365 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.9336 support first. Firm break of 0.9336 will argue that the correction has completed.

In the bigger picture, while corrective rebound from 0.9204 might extend higher, strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481 to limit upside. Down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in favor to resume through 0.9204/9 support zone at a later stage. However, strong break of 0.9481 will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and bring further rally back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9651.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4219; (P) 1.4353; (R1) 1.4444; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first after the volatile moves in the last 24 hours. Further rise is expected as long as 1.4260 support holds. Break of 1.4516 will resume larger up trend to 1.4667/89 key resistance zone. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.4260 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4203) and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is in progress for retesting 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6214; (P) 0.6250; (R1) 0.6311; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. With 0.6301 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. Break of 0.6130 will resume the fall from 0.6941. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6310 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6352).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is resuming with break of 0.6169 (2022 low). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806, In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6545) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0311; (P) 1.0373; (R1) 1.0478; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. The failure to break through 1.0435 resistance keeps another decline in favor. On the downside, firm break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2211; (P) 1.2278; (R1) 1.2395; More...

GBP/USD is still extending the consolidation pattern from 1.2099 and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral and further decline is expected with 1.2486 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.2099 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 100% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2486 from 1.2810 at 1.1863.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433, and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9031; (P) 0.9092; (R1) 0.9128; More…

USD/CHF is still extending the consolidation pattern from 0.9200 and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral, and further rally is expected with 0.9007 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9223 will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 0.9007 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8948).

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9223 resistance holds, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern. That is, long term down trend is in favor to resume through 0.8332 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.9223 will be an important sign of bullish trend reversal.

The USD/JPY pair fell to 155.08 on Tuesday, close to the monthly low. The Japanese yen gained strength as speculation grew regarding a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), driven by hawkish commentary from BoJ officials, which increased the likelihood of this action.

Key factors driving yen strength

A possible rate hike would raise Japan’s short-term borrowing costs to 0.5%, the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. This decision would align with recent optimism about the economy’s ability to achieve sustainable inflation. Markets also expect the BoJ to revise its core inflation forecast upwards, with confidence growing that wage increases will help maintain the 2% inflation target.

Additionally, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated the government’s readiness to take measures to support the yen, adding further strength to the currency.

In the broader market context, investors are also evaluating the actions of US President Donald Trump on his first day in office, which included signing several executive orders and discussing plans for trade tariffs. These developments contribute to broader uncertainty, indirectly favouring the yen as a safe-haven currency.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY experienced a pullback from the 156.56 level and is extending its downward wave towards 154.20. After reaching this level, a growth wave back to 156.56 is possible. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the pair is consolidating near 155.40, with expectations of a downward breakout to 154.20. After hitting this target, a corrective wave to 156.56 (a test from below) is possible. Further development of the downward wave could push the pair to 154.00. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downwards.

Conclusion

The strength of the Japanese yen reflects the growing expectations of a BoJ rate hike and supportive government policy. While technical analysis points to a further downside potential for USD/JPY in the short term, the pair’s movement will hinge on the BoJ’s upcoming decisions and broader market dynamics. On the downside, key levels to watch are 154.20 and 154.00, with 156.56 acting as a potential corrective target.