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Euro-Zone’s Annual Inflation Unexpectedly Revised Lower In February
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.16% against the USD and closed at 1.2285 on Friday, following dismal inflation figures from the Euro-bloc.
Data revealed that the Euro-zone's final consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.1% on a yearly basis in February, less than an initial estimate indicating a rise of 1.2%, thus suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to wind down its monetary stimulus anytime soon as inflation continues to remain limp and significantly below the bank's target. The CPI had recorded a rise of 1.3% in the previous month.
The US Dollar gained ground against a basket of major currencies on Friday, on the back of a string of upbeat US economic reports that painted a bright picture of the world's largest economy.
Data indicated that the flash Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index in the US unexpectedly climbed to a 14-year high level of 102.0 in March, reflecting a favourable economic outlook amongst Americans and defying market expectations for a drop to a level of 99.2. In the prior month, the index had registered a level of 99.7. Moreover, the nation's industrial production rebounded 1.1% on a monthly basis in February, surging to a 4-month high level and suggesting that industrial sector is likely to gain further strength in the coming months. Industrial production had registered a revised fall of 0.3% in the prior month, while markets were expecting for a gain of 0.4%. Further, the nation's manufacturing production recorded a rise of 1.2% MoM in February, after declining by a revised 0.2% in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged manufacturing production to rise 0.5%.
On the contrary, the nation's housing starts dropped more-than-estimated by 7.0% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1236.0K in February, compared to market consensus for a fall to a level of 1290.0K. Housing starts had registered a revised reading of 1329.0K in the prior month. Additionally, the nation's building permits eased more-than-anticipated by 5.7% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1298.0K in February, compared to a revised reading of 1377.0K in the prior month, while markets were anticipating for a drop to a level of 1320.0K.
In other economic news, JOLTs job openings in the US climbed to a level of 6312.0K in January, beating market consensus for an advance to a level of 5917.0K and after registering a revised reading of 5567.0K in the previous month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2271, with the EUR trading 0.11% lower against the USD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2242, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2213. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2318, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2365.
Moving ahead, traders would keep a close watch on the Euro-zone's trade balance and construction output data, both for January, slated to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1684; (P) 1.1698; (R1) 1.1710; More...
Consolidation from 1.1740 temporary top is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Again, with 1.1630 minor support intact, near term outlook remains bullish. Above 1.1740 will target a test on 1.1832 high. At this point, we'll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1630 minor support will target 1.1445 low again.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
Necessary To Continue Pursuing Powerful Monetary Easing: BoJ Summary Of Opinions
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the JPY and closed at 106.07 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 105.81, with the USD trading 0.25% lower against the JPY from Friday’s close.
As per the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of opinions report, policymakers reiterated that the central bank needs to stick with its quantitative easing as inflation is still well below its 2.0% target.
In economic news, Japan posted an adjusted merchandise trade deficit of ¥201.5 billion in February, following a revised surplus of ¥352.3 billion in the prior month, while markets were anticipating the nation to register a deficit of ¥90.8 billion.
The pair is expected to find support at 105.53, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.24. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.17, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.52.
Moving ahead, investors would keep a close watch on Japan’s final leading economic and coincident indices for January, scheduled to release tomorrow.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Extends Its Losses In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.17% against the CHF and closed at 0.9527 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9536, with the USD trading 0.09% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9498, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9460. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9561, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9586.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Loonie Trading Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.28% against the CAD and closed at 1.3095 on Friday.
In economic news, Canada’s manufacturing shipments eased 1.0% on a monthly basis in January, higher than market expectations for a fall of 0.9%. Manufacturing shipments had dropped by a revised 0.1% in the previous month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3104, with the USD trading 0.07% higher against the CAD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3065, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3025. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3127, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3149.
With no macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2252; (P) 1.2294 (R1) 1.2328; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Focus stays on 1.2251 minor support Firm break there will confirm completion of rebound from 1.2154. And intraday bias will be turned to the downside to extend the fall from 1.2555. On the upside, break of 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 high. Decisive break there will resume medium term rally and carry larger bullish implication.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3893; (P) 1.3936; (R1) 1.3986; More....
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 1.3995 will target 1.4144 resistance first. Break there will confirm completion of correction from 1.4345 and target retest of this high. On the downside, below 1.3873 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective fall from 1.4345. In that case, GBP/USD will target 1.3651 resistance turned support next.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9484; (P) 0.9516; (R1) 0.9546; More...
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. The rebound from 0.9186 is in progress for 0.9626 fibonacci level. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 0.9423 is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.58; (P) 105.97; (R1) 106.34; More...
USD/JPY is staying in range of 105.24/107.67 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3060; (P) 1.3079; (R1) 1.3114; More....
USD/CAD's rally is in progress and reaches as high as 1.3121 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Rise from 1.2061 should now target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. On the downside, below 1.3046 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2802 support holds.
In the bigger picture, we're favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds.








