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EUR/USD stayed in range last week despite some decline attempts. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Focus will be on 1.2251 minor support. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 1.2154. And intraday bias will be turned to the downside to extend the fall from 1.2555. On the upside, break of 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 high. Decisive break there will resume medium term rally and carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It's still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation above 105.24 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 107.67 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD recovered further to 1.3995 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Above 1.3995 will target 1.4144 resistance. Break there will confirm completion of correction from 1.4345 and target retest of this high. On the downside, below 1.3873 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective fall from 1.4345. In that case, GBP/USD will target 1.3651 resistance turned support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 should at least be correcting the whole long term down trend form 2.1161 and should target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. It too early to tell if it's developing into a long term up trend. We'll monitor the upside momentum and reaction to 1.5466 to decide later.

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9186 extended higher last week after brief retreat. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for 0.9626 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 0.9423 is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

In the long term picture, at this point, the long term decline from 1.0342 is still in favor to extend lower to 0.8698 key support. But sustained break of above mentioned 0.9626 will turn focus back to 1.0037/0342 resistance zone.

AUD/USD's rebound was limited at 0.7915 last week and reversed. Subsequent sharp fall and break of 0.7712 support indicates resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.7500 key support next.

One of the interpretation of recent price actions is that price action from 0.7758 to 0.7915 were a three wave consolidation pattern. If that's true, the fact that 0.7712 was well below 0.7758 indicates strong selling pressure even inside that consolidation. That is, decline from 0.7915 would then be a very powerful move that could takes out 0.7500 easily. We'll keep an eye on it to see if there is any further downside acceleration ahead.

On the upside, above 0.7769 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7915 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we're favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we'd anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

USD/CAD's medium term rise resumed last week by surging to as high as 1.3099 last week. 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level was taken out already and there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. USD/CAD should target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. On the downside, below 1.2984 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2802 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we'll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that's completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

GBP/JPY's recovery from 144.97 extended higher to 149.36 last week but retreated since then. As it's staying above 146.34 minor support, initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 146.34 minor support will suggest that the recovery has completed. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for 144.97 first. Break will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, rejection from 55 month EEMA (now at 154.27) argues that medium term rebound from 122.36 might be completed. And, the corrective structure also carries some bearish implication today. Sustained break of 135.58 key support will likely bring retest of 122.36 low, with prospect of resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY's rebound from 129.34 was limited by 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45 and completed at 132.40. Initial bias stays on the downside for 129.34 low first. Break will resume whole fall from 137.49 and target 126.61 medium term fibonacci level. In case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance from 132.45 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern. established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.

EUR/GBP's decline from 0.8976 extended lower last week even though downside momentum was unconvincing. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.8771 support first. Break of 0.8771 support will confirm completion of rebound from 0.8686 and target a retest of this low. On the upside, above 0.8896 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 0.8967 will resume the rebound from 0.8686 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8686 at 0.9069.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

In the long term picture, we're holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.