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NZDUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• NZDUSD reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 0.5950

NZDUSD currency pair reversed from the resistance area between the major resistance level 0.6060 (which has been reversing the price from June) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooing Star – strong sell signal for this currency pair.

Given the strength of the resistance level 0.6060 and the bullish US dollar sentiment seen today, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5950.

USDJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• USDJPY reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 155.15

USDJPY currency pair reversed up from the support area between the key support level 152.20 (which has been reversing the price from October), 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from September and the support trendline of the weekly up channel from last April.

The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor correction ii – which belongs to wave iii from September.

Given the clear daily uptrend, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 155.15.

FTSE 100 Index: ⬆️ Buy

• FTSE 100 Index broke the resistance area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 10800.00

FTSE 100 Index recently broke the resistance area between the resistance level 10500.00 and the two daily up channels from November and June of 2025.

The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).

Given the overriding daily uptrend, FTSE 100 Index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 10800.00.

WTI Crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI Crude oil reversed from pivotal support level 62.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 65.45

WTI Crude oil recently reversed from the support area between the pivotal support level 62.00 (which has been reversing the price from August, alternating between the support and resistance roles) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.

The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.

WTI Crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 65.45 (which has been reversing the price from September).

Markets

In yet another session stripped of volumes, volatility and news worthy the name, an overlooked NY Fed tariff study of last week drew some attention. It was Kevin Hassett’s (director of the National Economic Council) aim at the conclusion that ironically enough brought it back in the spotlight. He disagrees with the findings that US businesses and consumers paid nearly 90% of the cost of president Trump’s tariffs last year. The share was the largest in the first months of Trump’s presidency, 94%, before dropping to 86% in November (cut-off period). The study results of course undercut POTUS’ claim that foreign companies would bear the burden. Hassett called for the authors of what he described as “the worst study in the Fed’s history” to be disciplined. Also to be found in the non-market related section (at least for now) is speculation on ECB’s Lagarde early exit as president of the ECB. British newspaper Financial Times ran an article this morning floating the possibility to give French president Macron a say in her succession before the presidential elections of next year. A glimpse at the polls reveals the motive. The far-right Rassemblement National is consistently polling ahead of rivals and the belief is that the party’s unconventional views would complicate the nomination process. Commentators are drawing parallels with French central bank governor Villeroy’s announcement earlier this month to step down ahead of the end of his term. Lagarde is part of a bigger position switch going on at the ECB. Chief economist Lane’s and board member Schnabel’s terms end in 2027 too with the latter having openly solicited for Lagarde’s position in the past. Other touted candidates include Germany’s Nagel, the Netherland’s Knot and Spain’s de Cos.

Turning to markets then. Treasury yields build on yesterday’s intraday recovery to add 0.8-2.5 bps in a bear flattening move. It offers little relief for the likes of the 2-yr, which remains close to critical 3.4% support. The 10-yr tenor (4.07%) is trying to create breathing space, away from the 4% psychological barrier. European yields rise slightly, Bunds underperforming vs. swap. The US dollar extended earlier (marginal) gains after stronger-than-expected durable goods orders (December) in all of the gauges. The headline series (-1.4% vs -2% expected) was impacted by a sharp drop in nondefense aircraft orders (Boeing, -24.9%) but core measures all printed solid increases, including the one used for capital investments in GDP (shipments, +0.9%). December housing data came in well above consensus as well. Building permits and housing starts rose by 4.3% and 6.2% m/m respectively. An unexpected deterioration in the NY Fed’s services sector activity gauge (-25.7, from -16.1) tempered dollar bulls a bit. The 6-month gauge improved to the highest since February 2025 but remains below the series’ long-term average. DXY inches higher to 97.34, EUR/USD depreciates from 1.185 to 1.182. The kiwi dollar underperforms after the central bank this morning doused an Aussie-fueled fire for short-term rate hikes. NZD/USD’s stay north of 0.60 was cut short. Other noteworthy moves include NOK strength on higher oil prices. Brent rises 3% amid reports from news outlet Axios that a US-Iran war may be closer and longer-lasting than currently assumed.

News & Views

The Flemish Community raised €2bn via a long 10-yr bond (Jun2036) issued via syndication. The bond was priced to yield 17 bps over the Belgian OLO reference curve, compared with initial and revised guidance of respectively +21 bps and +19 bps. Books were above €11bn, highlighting solid demand. Flanders Department of Finance estimates total funding needs for 2026 at €9bn, the lion share of which is to cover new funding needs (€6bn). The funding need mainly stems from an estimated budget deficit of €1.83bn and other (recurring) funding needs such as the Flemish Social Housing Company (VMSW €0.92bn), the Flemish Housing Fund (VWF €1.36bn) and costs related to the Oosterweel link (LANTIS; €0.86bn). Debt redemptions for 2026 are projected at €2.82bn. They include Flanders’ short term Belgian Commercial Paper programme, rolling over a €1.5bn 3-month bill (current maturity 04/22/26) and a €0.75bn bond redemption (June2026). Internal redemptions (€0.17bn) are expected to be reinvested in the Flemish Community by the consolidated public institutions. Total new funding needs are forecasted to remain constant in the 2027-2030 period at €5-5.33bn. Including bond redemptions results in gross borrowing needs of €6.36bn-6.88bn in 2027, 2028 & 2030 and €7.6bn in 2029.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1821; (P) 1.1839; (R1) 1.1873; More….

EUR/USD is still bounded in range trading and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 1.1928 will target a retest on 1.2081 high. Decisive break there and sustained trading above 1.2 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1763) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2, and target 1.1576 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1485) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3497; (P) 1.3569; (R1) 1.3641; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is mildly on the downside with breach of 1.3507 support. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3518) will raise the chance of larger scale correction. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.3342 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 1.3711 will bring retest of 1.3867 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) still in progress and should target 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.69; (P) 153.31; (R1) 153.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as range trading continues. With 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a consolidations pattern only. On the upside, firm break of 154.63 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound towards 157.65. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that it's reversing the rise from 139.87 already. In this case, deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34, and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.77) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7679; (P) 0.7709; (R1) 0.7732; More….

USD/CHF recovers mildly today as consolidation pattern from 0.7603 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Stronger rebound cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7849) to complete the pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7603 will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.