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Gold declined to 4,600 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending losses from the previous session. Pressure intensified after Donald Trump issued a new ultimatum to Iran, threatening strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Trump signalled his readiness to sharply increase pressure and set a new deadline, further heightening tensions in financial markets. Tehran has rejected the demands and continues to target energy facilities in the region.

Since the onset of the conflict, gold has lost approximately 12% of its value. Rising energy prices are amplifying inflation risks and reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates, which limit demand for the metal.

Moreover, gold is not fully fulfilling its traditional role as a safe-haven asset. Some investors are being forced to unwind positions to cover losses in other market segments, adding further downward pressure on prices.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around 4,599 USD. An upside breakout would open the way for a correction towards 4,854 USD, while a downside breakout could mark the beginning of a new downward wave towards 4,477 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line above the zero line and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken above 4,636 USD and is forming a wave towards 4,737 USD. Looking ahead, a corrective move back to 4,636 USD is likely, followed by a renewed advance towards 4,852 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold’s 12% decline since the start of the Middle East conflict highlights a market paradox: escalating geopolitical tensions have failed to support the traditional safe-haven asset. Instead, surging energy prices have intensified inflation concerns, pushing interest rate expectations higher and weighing on the non-yielding metal. Forced liquidation by investors covering losses elsewhere has added to the selling pressure. With Trump issuing a new ultimatum and Tehran rejecting the demands, the conflict shows no signs of easing. While technical indicators suggest scope for a short-term rebound, gold’s broader trajectory remains vulnerable, and further downside cannot be ruled out.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.38; (P) 210.85; (R1) 211.29; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral first, and risk remains on the downside with 213.29 resistance intact. Corrective pattern from 214.98 should be in the third leg. Break of 209.58 will target 207.20 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 203.13) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.61; (P) 183.95; (R1) 184.24; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 181.85 support should confirm that the correction from 186.86 is already in the third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to 180.78 and below. However, break of 184.75 resistance will bring stronger rally to retest 186.86 high instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 176.21) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8717; (P) 0.8725; (R1) 0.8734; More…

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidations below 0.8740 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 short term bottom to 0.8788 resistance next. However, break of 0.8675 will bring retest of 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be resume to resume through 0.8863. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6688; (P) 1.6709; (R1) 1.6730; More...

EUR/AUD is extending consolidations below 1.6842 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.6842 will resume the rebound from 1.6125 to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053. However, break of 1.6561 minor support will argue that the rebound fro 1.6125 has completed, after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6745). Retest of 1.6125 low should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7207) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9206; (P) 0.9218; (R1) 0.9228; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen below 0.9264. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.8979 at 0.9235 will pave the way to 0.9394 key resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8979 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) holds, the larger down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still expected to continue through 0.8979 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rise through 0.9394 resistance, even as a corrective move.

Gold price rallied above $4,750 before correcting lower. Crude oil prices are rising and could climb further higher toward $110.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price gained pace for a move toward $4,800 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.
•  A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,630 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $100.00 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $97.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above $4,500. The price even surpassed $4,750 before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to $4,800 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below $4,750 and $4,700. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,351 swing low to the $4,800 high.

However, the bulls are active above $4,575 and the 50% Fib retracement. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $4,630.

Immediate hurdle on the upside is $4,695 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major breakout level is $4,750. An upside break above $4,750 could send Gold price toward $4,800. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,880.

If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near $4,630 and the trend line. The first key breakdown zone could be $4,520. If there is a downside break below $4,520, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $4,350.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a steady increase against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it settled above $96.40.

The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average, and the RSI climbed toward 75. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $97.00. The price tested the $105.85 zone and is currently consolidating gains.

There was a minor pullback below $103 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $92.78 swing low to the $105.86 low.

If there is a fresh increase, the price could struggle near $105.85. A close above $106.85 could send the price toward $108. The next key area of interest might be $110. Any more gains might send the price toward $112.

Conversely, the price might correct gains and test $100.85. The main bid area on the WTI crude oil chart could be $99.30, the 50% Fib retracement level, and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $96.40. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move to $92.80.

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Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has recovered to $2.38 trillion, rising by around 2.5% over the past 24 hours — most assets on the watchlist are trading in positive territory. Today’s top performers include Avalanche (+6.6%), Cardano (+5.0%) and Ethereum (+3.8%). Among the few underperformers are IOTA (−1.3%), VeChain (−0.9%) and Bitcoin Cash (−0.6%).

Bitcoin has risen again to $69K, confirming the support seen over the last three months amid consolidation following the downturn. A slight upward tilt in the bullish trend should not lead to undue optimism, as a similar pattern was observed for two months leading up to the end of January, followed by a fresh downward momentum. A repeat of this pattern this time suggests a decline to $50K.

Ethereum has surpassed $2.1K and is consolidating above its 50-day moving average. The coin has moved into the region above $2K, increasingly breaking away from the long-term trend line. Cautious buyers should pay attention to how the coin behaves near the previous local highs at $2.2K and $2.4K. A confident rise above these levels would signal a breakout from consolidation and the potential start of a bull market.

Major mining company Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC ($290 million) in the first quarter at an average price of $76,626 per coin. The company is accelerating its business pivot towards supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Bitcoin’s current stability may indicate the formation of a base for further growth, according to MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe. He says the key signal will be the price reaction when an attempt is made to break out of the current range.

Following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin ceased to react to central bank decisions after the fact and began to anticipate macroeconomic trends in advance, notes Binance Research. This reflects the growing influence of institutional investors employing a traditional approach to trading.

According to Artemis, the Ethereum blockchain recorded a record number of transactions in the first quarter since its launch — 200.4 million transactions.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1500; (P) 1.1525; (R1) 1.1540; More….

EUR/USD is extending the consolidation pattern from 1.1408 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.5011) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.48; (P) 159.62; (R1) 159.81; More...

USD/JPY is extending consolidations below 160.45 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall could be seen, but overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. Firm break of 160.45 will resume the rise from 152.25 to retest 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.97) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.