Sample Category Title

Australia’s Home Loan Approvals Fell Less-Than-Anticipated In October

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.69% against the USD and closed at 0.7512.

LME Copper prices declined 0.1% or $8.5/MT to $6530.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.7% or $34.5/MT to $1994.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7515, with the AUD trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

On the macro front, Australia's seasonally adjusted home loan approvals eased less-than-expected by 0.6% MoM in October, compared to market consensus for a drop of 2.0%. Home loan approvals had registered a fall of 2.3% in the prior month.

Elsewhere in China, Australia's largest trading partner, trade surplus surprisingly widened to CNY263.6 billion in November, defying market expectations for it to narrow to CNY240.8 billion. In the previous month, the nation's trade balance had recorded a level of CNY254.5 billion.

Additionally, the nation's exports jumped more-than-anticipated by 10.3% YoY in November, compared to a gain of 6.1% in the preceding month. Further, annual imports climbed more-than-anticipated by 15.6% on an annual basis in November, after recording a rise of 15.9% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7493, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7471. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7546, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7577.

Next week, traders would focus on a speech by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Governor, Philip Lowe coupled with Australia's unemployment rate, the NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence data.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Euro-Zone’s Economic Growth Confirmed At 0.6% In The Three Months To September

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.25% against the USD and closed at 1.1776, after Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production unexpectedly declined 1.4% on a monthly basis in October, posting its biggest drop in 2017 and confounding market expectations for a gain of 0.9%. Industrial production had registered a revised fall of 0.9% in the prior month.

Separately, the Euro-zone's seasonally adjusted final gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 0.6% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter of 2017, confirming the preliminary print. The region's GDP had climbed by a revised 0.7% in the prior quarter.

The greenback advanced against its major peers, amid optimism that the US Government would push through its long-anticipated tax reforms.

Gains in the US Dollar were boosted further, after data showed that first time claims for the US unemployment benefits unexpectedly eased to a level of 236.0K in the week ended 02 December, hitting its lowest level in five weeks and pointing to a strong labour market. Markets were anticipating initial jobless claims to climb to a level of 240.0K, compared to a level of 238.0K in the prior week. Further, the nation's consumer credit increased more-than-anticipated by $20.52 billion in October, posting its largest increase in 11 months. Consumer credit had registered a revised rise of $19.21 billion in the previous month, while market participants had envisaged for an advance of $17.50 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1768, with the EUR trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1748, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1729. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1801, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1835.

Moving ahead, traders would eye the release of Germany's trade balance figures for October, due to release in a few hours. Later in the day, investors would direct their attention to the crucial US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data, all for November, to get better insights into the nation's labour market.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

UK’s Halifax House Prices Climbed For Fifth Straight Month In November

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.72% against the USD and closed at 1.3480, on hopes that the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will break the current impasse in Brexit negotiations by meeting a Sunday deadline of presenting a deal to the European Union.

In economic news, UK's Halifax house price index rose 0.5% on a monthly basis in November, rising for the fifth consecutive month. The index had recorded a gain of 0.3% in the previous month, while investors had expected for a rise of 0.2%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3477, with the GBP trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3369, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3262. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3535, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3594.

Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of Britain's total trade balance as well as industrial and manufacturing production data, all for October, due to release in a few hours. Moreover, the NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to November, scheduled later today, will also attract significant market attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Economic Growth Sharply Revised Up In 3Q 2017

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.76% against the JPY and closed at 113.09.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 113.29, with the USD trading 0.18% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Japan's final gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.6% on a quarterly basis in the three months to September, revised up from a preliminary print indicating an advance of 0.3%. The nation's GDP had registered a similar rise in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, the nation's trade surplus (BOP basis) narrowed less-than-expected to ¥430.2 billion in October, from a surplus of ¥852.2 billion in the previous month, while market participants had envisaged the nation to register surplus of ¥418.1 billion.

Earlier in the session, data indicated that the nation's Eco-Watchers Survey for the current situation registered an unexpected rise to a level of 55.1 in November, against market expectations for a decline to a level of 52.1. The index had recorded a level of 52.2 in the prior month. On the contrary, the nation's Eco Watchers Survey for the future outlook fell to a level of 53.8 in November, more than market consensus for a drop to a level of 54.0 and after recording a reading of 54.9 in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 112.63, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.97. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.67, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.05.

Going ahead, investors would look forward to Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Tankan large manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, all due to release next week.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate Surprisingly Fell In November

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.51% against the CHF and closed at 0.9945.

Macroeconomic data indicated that Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 3.0% in November, while markets had expected the nation's unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.1%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9946, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9907, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9868. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.997, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9994.

Next week, all eyes will be on the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate decision.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Canada’s Building Permits Topped Market Expectations In October

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.48% against the CAD and closed at 1.2854.

The Canadian Dollar lost ground, extending its previous session losses, after the Bank of Canada tempered expectations for an interest rate hike early next year.

In economic news, Canada's building permits increased 3.5% MoM in October, beating market expectations for an advance of 1.0%. Building permits had risen by a revised 4.9% in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation's seasonally adjusted Ivey–PMI eased less-than-expected to a level of 63.0 in November, compared to a reading of 63.8 in the previous month, while market participants and anticipated for a fall to a level of 62.5.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2853, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2811, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2770. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2881, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2910.

Ahead in the day, Canada’s housing starts data for November, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Break of 152.93 suggests recent rally in GBP/JPY has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Recent medium term rise would now target 61.8% projection of 139.29 to 152.82 from 146.96 at 155.32. Break will pave the way to 100% projection at 160.49. On the downside, break of 149.74 is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.62; (P) 151.21; (R1) 151.91; More...

Break of 152.93 suggests recent rally in GBP/JPY has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Recent medium term rise would now target 61.8% projection of 139.29 to 152.82 from 146.96 at 155.32. Break will pave the way to 100% projection at 160.49. On the downside, break of 149.74 is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after consolidation from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

EUR/JPY is staying in corrective corrective trading below 134.37 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We're favoring the case that medium term up trend is nearly ready to resume. Break of 134.48 will target 61.8% projection of 127.55 to 134.48 from 131.16 at 135.44 and then 100% projection at 138.09. However, firm break of 131.16 support will now indicate near term trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 127.55 key support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.55; (P) 132.92; (R1) 133.47; More....

EUR/JPY is staying in corrective corrective trading below 134.37 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We're favoring the case that medium term up trend is nearly ready to resume. Break of 134.48 will target 61.8% projection of 127.55 to 134.48 from 131.16 at 135.44 and then 100% projection at 138.09. However, firm break of 131.16 support will now indicate near term trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 127.55 key support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1670; (P) 1.1694; (R1) 1.1727; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook is unchanged. As noted before, persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD and rising wedge like structure suggests that the cross is near to forming a top, if not formed. Hence, even in case of another rise, we'd expect limited upside potential. On the downside, sustained break of 1.1584 support will be a strong sign of trend reversal and should turn outlook bearish for 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1736 at 1.1313.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1195 resistance turned support holds, we'll hold on to this bullish view and expect another to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Though, we'll reassess the outlook if 1.1195 is firmly taken out.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5605; (P) 1.5651; (R1) 1.5712; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.5770 might extend. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.5226 key support to bring rebound. Medium term rally is still expected to resume later and break of 1.5770 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).