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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4328; (P) 1.4382; (R1) 1.4428; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral as consolidation continues below 1.4466 temporary top. While deeper pull back cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.4177 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 1.4466 and sustained trading above 1.4391 will pave the way to retest 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391 already. Sustained trading above there will pave the way to 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3729) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

With the holiday season underway, this week may be less volatile than the previous one, which was dominated by central bank decisions. This presents an opportunity to analyse the broader trends and outlook for gold prices in 2025.

The XAU/USD chart reveals that gold prices have been moving within an ascending channel, gaining approximately 27% since the start of 2024.

The short-term outlook appears bearish due to the following factors:

• Gold prices fell after last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut, signalling increased selling pressure.
• The $2,720 level remains a key resistance, having reversed the price downward in November and December.
• While a recent upward reversal (indicated by an arrow) shows renewed buying interest near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, persistent selling pressure could still lead to a bearish trend. This might result in a breakdown below the blue channel's lower boundary and the formation of a descending channel (outlined in red).

Despite short-term challenges, analysts remain optimistic about gold's prospects for 2025. Donald Trump's return to the White House may significantly change global trade, Western alliances, and geopolitical dynamics. These uncertainties may increase demand for gold as a so-called safe-haven asset.

A BullionVault survey of around 1,450 participants predicts that gold prices could reach $3,070 by the end of 2025, driven by concerns over geopolitics and mounting national debt.

In this context, even if the lower boundary of the blue channel is breached, bullish momentum could resume, possibly from one of the grey support levels.

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Gold price started a fresh decline below $2,665. Crude oil prices are now struggling to clear the $70.00 and $70.50 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,665 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,632 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $70.00 support zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $70.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price recovered above the $2,650 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,665 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $2,665 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $2,650 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,620 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested the $2,580 zone. A low formed near $2,582 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,664 swing high to the $2,582 low.

However, the bears are active below $2,650. Immediate resistance is near $2,630 and a key bearish trend line at $2,632. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,664 swing high to the $2,582 low.

The next major resistance is near the $2,665 zone. The main resistance could be $2,675, above which the price could test the $2,700 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,720.

An upside break above the $2,720 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,750. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,770 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,605 level. The first major support is near the $2,580 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,580 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,550 support.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $70.50 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $70.00.

There was a steady decline below the $69.40 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $69.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $68.35 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $68.36, and the price is now correcting losses.

There was a minor move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.50 swing high to the $68.36 low. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $70.00 level.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $70.00. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.50 swing high to the $68.36 low.

The next resistance is near the $70.50 level. The main resistance is near a trend line at $70.90. A clear move above the $70.90 zone could send the price toward $72.00. The next key resistance is near $72.50. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $74.20. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75.00 level.

Immediate support is near the $69.40 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $68.85. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $68.35. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.00 support zone.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6219; (P) 0.6247; (R1) 0.6278; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for sideway trading above 0.6198. Consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 0.6336 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6198 will resume the fall from 0.6941 to 0.6169 long term support, and then 138.2% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6074. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6336 will bring stronger rebound lengthier correction before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006. Firm break of 0.6169 support will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6588) holds.

As markets wind down for the year-end holiday period, forex trading activity turns subdued, with limited momentum across major pairs. Dollar, while maintaining its position as the strongest currency of the month, is facing challenges in decisively breaking last month’s highs against European majors. However, the greenback still made some headway against Yen and commodity currencies

This week’s economic calendar is notably lighter, with the focus shifting to central bank minutes from BoJ, BoC, and RBA, alongside a handful of key data releases from the US, Canada, and Japan.

Technically, while EUR/USD failed to break through 1.0330 support on first attempt last week, it seems not giving up yet, with the recovery capped below falling 55 4H EMA. Another fall remains in favor through 1.0330 to 61.8% projection of 1.0936 to 10330 from 1.0629 at 1.0254. However, a significant breakout below this projection is likely to occur only after the New Year.

In Asia, Nikkei closed up 1.19%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.70%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.50%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.88%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.011 to 1.067.

ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation target within reach, services inflation still stubborn

In an interview with the Financial Times, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed optimism about nearing the inflation target.

She remarked that ECB is "very close" to declaring that inflation has been "sustainably" brought back to its 2% medium-term target.

The latest inflation reading of 2.2% reflects the success of ECB’s restrictive monetary policy. However, she highlighted persistent concerns in the services sector, where inflation remains high at 3.9%, describing it as "not budging much" despite showing slight signs of decline.

On the topic of US tariff threats, Lagarde emphasized the economic risks of retaliatory trade measures, stating, "Retaliation was a bad approach." She warned that tit-for-tat trade conflicts could harm the global economy.

Natural gas prices surge on winter demand and long-term power trends

Natural gas prices climbed to a nearly two-year high, driven by immediate weather-related demand and a bullish long-term outlook for global energy consumption.

In the short term, forecasts for below-average temperatures across the northern hemisphere—including North America, Europe, China, and Japan—are expected to significantly increase daily heating demand as these regions, which account for more than two-thirds of global gas consumption, enter their peak heating season. This has bolstered sentiment, with limited downside for prices likely until well into 2025.

Beyond the seasonal factors, the long-term outlook for natural gas remains robust. Rising electricity demand as the race for artificial intelligence accelerates, is projected to grow power consumption for such facilities by 10–15% annually through 2030, potentially accounting for up to 5% of global power demand by that time.

Natural gas is expected to play a pivotal role as a baseload energy source in this transition, given its current dominance in power generation. In the US, natural gas powers approximately 40–45% of electricity production, while globally, that share is closer to 25%. However, as more countries transition from coal to gas, the share of gas in electricity generation is anticipated to increase.

Technically, the break of 3.446 resistance last week was an important sign of underlying medium term momentum. Rise from 1.570 (Feb low) is now expected to continue to 161.8% projection of 1.570 to 3.024 from 1.852 at 4.204.

Nevertheless, momentum should target to wane above 4.204, and, in particular, as it approaches 38.2% retracement of 10.03 to 1.570 at 4.80.

Minutes and deliberations from BoC, BoJ and RBA highlight a holiday week

With the global markets winding down for the holiday season, the week ahead features a much lighter economic calendar. The spotlight will fall on central bank deliberations and meeting minutes from BoJ, BoC and RBA. A handful of key economic data releases from the US, Canada, and Japan will also attract attention as the year concludes.

For BoJ, Summary of Opinions for December, due on Friday, holds more weight than Tuesday’s October minutes, as markets seek clarity on the board’s discussions regarding a potential rate hike in January. The report will also provide insights into BoJ’s perspective on two critical issues: the uncertainty surrounding wage growth in 2025 and the risks posed by US trade policies. These considerations are likely to influence the pace and direction of Japan’s policy normalization, shaping expectations for the coming months.

BoC’s December meeting marked a turning point in its monetary policy stance, with a 50bps rate cut and a clear message that further easing would no longer be automatic. Policymakers indicated that decisions would now be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, reflecting a shift toward caution after substantial easing since June. The minutes will be analyzed for clues about how close the BoC is to a pause, the expected pace of additional cuts, and how deep further easing might go.

Meanwhile, RBA introduced a surprising dovish pivot at its December meeting. Growing confidence in the disinflationary trend led the board to omit language suggesting openness to further tightening. However, while this shift suggests the RBA is exploring a less restrictive path, it does not necessarily mean the first rate cut is imminent. Market participants will scrutinize the meeting minutes to understand the reasoning behind this "big pivot" and gauge what data RBA considers essential before moving toward easing.

On the data front, attention will turn to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders, Canada’s monthly GDP, and Tokyo CPI from Japan.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Germany import prices; UK Q3 GDP Final; Swiss UBC economic expectations; Canada GDP, IPPI, RMPI; US consumer confidence; BoC summary of deliberations.
• Tuesday: BoJ minutes; RBA minutes; US durable goods orders, new home sales.
• Wednesday: Japan corporate services prices.
• Thursday: Japan housing starts, US jobless claims.
• Friday: Japan BoJ summary of opinions, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate; US goods trade balance.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6219; (P) 0.6247; (R1) 0.6278; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for sideway trading above 0.6198. Consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 0.6336 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6198 will resume the fall from 0.6941 to 0.6169 long term support, and then 138.2% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6074. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6336 will bring stronger rebound lengthier correction before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006. Firm break of 0.6169 support will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6588) holds.

Natural gas prices climbed to a nearly two-year high, driven by immediate weather-related demand and a bullish long-term outlook for global energy consumption.

In the short term, forecasts for below-average temperatures across the northern hemisphere—including North America, Europe, China, and Japan—are expected to significantly increase daily heating demand as these regions, which account for more than two-thirds of global gas consumption, enter their peak heating season. This has bolstered sentiment, with limited downside for prices likely until well into 2025.

Beyond the seasonal factors, the long-term outlook for natural gas remains robust. Rising electricity demand as the race for artificial intelligence accelerates, is projected to grow power consumption for such facilities by 10–15% annually through 2030, potentially accounting for up to 5% of global power demand by that time.

Natural gas is expected to play a pivotal role as a baseload energy source in this transition, given its current dominance in power generation. In the US, natural gas powers approximately 40–45% of electricity production, while globally, that share is closer to 25%. However, as more countries transition from coal to gas, the share of gas in electricity generation is anticipated to increase.

Technically, the break of 3.446 resistance last week was an important sign of underlying medium term momentum. Rise from 1.570 (Feb low) is now expected to continue to 161.8% projection of 1.570 to 3.024 from 1.852 at 4.204.

Nevertheless, momentum should target to wane above 4.204, and, in particular, as it approaches 38.2% retracement of 10.03 to 1.570 at 4.80.

In an interview with the Financial Times, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed optimism about nearing the inflation target.

She remarked that ECB is "very close" to declaring that inflation has been "sustainably" brought back to its 2% medium-term target.

The latest inflation reading of 2.2% reflects the success of ECB’s restrictive monetary policy. However, she highlighted persistent concerns in the services sector, where inflation remains high at 3.9%, describing it as "not budging much" despite showing slight signs of decline.

On the topic of US tariff threats, Lagarde emphasized the economic risks of retaliatory trade measures, stating, "Retaliation was a bad approach." She warned that tit-for-tat trade conflicts could harm the global economy.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a recovery wave from the 1.0350 zone.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.0450 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is facing hurdles near the 1.2650 and 1.2720 levels.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum gained bearish pace and declined below key support levels.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro traded as low as 1.0343 before it started a recovery wave against the US Dollar. EUR/USD climbed above the 1.0380 and 1.0400 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair even cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0629 swing high to the 1.0343 low. However, the pair is still below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0450 on the same chart. The trend line is close to the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0629 swing high to the 1.0343 low.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.0450 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0475 level. A close above the 1.0475 level could set the tone for another increase.

The next major resistance could be the 1.0520 level, above which the price could climb higher toward the 1.0580 resistance. On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.0400 level.

The next key support sits near the 1.0380 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.0350 level. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 1.0300 level.

Looking at Bitcoin, the bears took control, and they succeeded in closing the price below the key support at $100,000.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• UK GDP for Q3 2016 (Preliminary) (QoQ) - Forecast +0.1%, versus +0.1% previous.
• UK GDP for Q3 2016 (Preliminary) (YoY) - Forecast +1%, versus +1% previous.

• EURCHF falling inside minor impulse wave 5
• Likely to fall to support level 0.9250

EURCHF currency pair continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 5, which started earlier from the pivotal resistance level 0.9430 (standing well above the upper daily Bollinger Band), which has been reversing the price from the start of October.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.9430 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

Given the overriding daily downtrend and the strongly bullish Swiss franc sentiment seen today, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.9250, low of the earlier minor correction b.

USDCHF reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 0.8860

USDCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone located between the round resistance level 0.90000 (which has been reversing the pair from the idle of last year) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.

The resistance level 0.90000 was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the weekly downtrend from the end of 2022.

Given the strong multiyear downtrend and the overbought weekly Stochastic, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.8860.